the process of evaluating english cycle cities
DESCRIPTION
Kevin Mayne, Cycling EnglandTRANSCRIPT
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The process of evaluating English cycle cities
Kevin Mayne
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The opportunity
.Growing recognition that cycling contributes to tackling:
• Obesity
• Traffic congestion
• Climate change
• Improving quality of life
• Creating wealth through tourism and leisure
• Rising transport prices
• Recession
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Planning for cycling – the value of cycle
infrastructure
Economic case for cycling
Analysis of the cycling towns
investment
12
3
Making the economic case
Cycling as a mainstream modeof transport
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Economic case
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But where’s the evidence?
.
Economic benefits of cycling are not fully understood
Cycling not viewed as a mainstream mode of transport
Systematic underinvestment
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Translating benefits into hard numbers – the SQW study
. The measurable benefits of cycling:
• Improvements in general health and fitness
• Cutting pollution and CO2 emissions
• Contribution to easing congestion
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10% of 10 yr olds are clinically obese, 29% are overweight
Adult obesity currently costs £8bn pa
50,000 deaths pa are from illnesses caused by inactivity
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Valuing the benefits of cycling
. The value of cycling is higher where:• Inactive people become active• Older people are persuaded to cycle• Where cycling replaces a car trip, particularly in urban
areas• Where the journey is a regular trip
These are conservative indications - no allowance has been made for reductions in obesity / for children cycling / for the social benefits of cycling
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•
Low High
Low
High
Age
of
addi
tiona
l cyc
lists
Proportion of cycle trips that replace car trips
Health Health/pollution congestion
Pollution/ congestion
£176 per additional cyclist
£382 per additional cyclist
£87 per additional cyclist
£293 per additional cyclist
The value of a cyclist
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Economic case > Investment case
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The investment case
. • A 50% increase in trips between 2005 and 2015 will generate savings of £1.3 billion
Investment in cycling projects shows a return of between 3:1 and 4.5:1
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Implications for infrastructure
.
Cost of project Number of additional cyclists needed
£10,000 1
£100,000 11
£1,000,000 109
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Investment case > evidence base
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Cycling City and Towns
Phase one: • Original six Cycling
Demonstration Towns appointed in 2005
• Cycling England has invested £17m in these six towns
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Phase one: The CDT programme
• First phase: October 2005 – October 2008
• All towns funded at approx £5 per head per year, matched by the local authority – total investment £10 per head
• All towns ‘medium-sized’; larger ones focussed effort on part of their population
• Consistent, co-ordinated investment and ‘joined-up’ measures leads to a step-change in cycling levels
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Phase one: A taste of CDT achievements
• Aylesbury – Gemstone Cycle Network
• Brighton and Hove – Cycle Freeway Network and Personalised Travel Planning
• Darlington – Local Motion campaign
• Derby – Focus on children and young people
• Exeter – Engaged with local employers
• Lancaster with Morecambe – Expanded cycle routes in the area
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Cycling Demonstration Towns – programme ingredients
• Cycle parking in schools• Bike It• Bikeability training• Engagement with the local business community• Major cycling events• Publicity
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The results
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Source data
Continuous cycle count dataQuarterly manual cycle count dataSchool travel dataCounts of parked bikesBehaviour and attitude surveysWorkplace travel survey data
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Major themes addressed by findings
The effectiveness of targeting investmentThe importance of high quality provisionDistribution of cycling activityLessons in growing cycling
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Key results from phase one• Cycle counts up in all six
towns, by between 10% and 57%
• Cycling levels increased on average by 28% in the three years
• Increase in number of people cycling
• Increase in physical activity amongst the most inactive
• Comparator towns do not show this
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Physical activity assessment
• European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)
• Asks about activity in usual week
• Includes cycling in categories
• Validated against accelerometers
• Predictive of all-cause mortality
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The effectiveness of targeting investment:
growth in cycling to schools Hands Up
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Percentage of pupils cycling to schoolHands Up - all schools Hands Up - primary schools
Hands Up - secondary schools
Dat
a fr
om D
arlin
gton
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Lessons in growing cycling:a marked change in the rate of growth
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Aug-06 Feb-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Oct-08
Date
Me
dia
n d
aily
co
un
t
Dat
a fr
om D
arlin
gton
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Lessons in growing cycling:increasing the rate of growth
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan-98 May-99 Sep-00 Feb-02 Jun-03 Nov-04 Mar-06 Aug-07 Dec-08
Date
Me
dia
n d
aily
co
un
t
Dat
a fr
om D
erby
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Headline comparison with London
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
220%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
years
ind
ex
of
cy
cli
ng
le
ve
ls
London 0=2000/01 CDTs 0=2006
Caution! Figures are approximate and indicative only; work in progressBase year for London = first year of strategic London-wide focus & investmentBase year for CDTs = first full calendar year of CDT project
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Lift Off for Cycling
• Appraisal by the Department for Transport– The benefit to cost ratio is at least 3:1, and
may be as high as 5 or 6:1 if benefits are sustained over 30 years.
– These calculations are based on conservative assumptions, and do not include all the benefits of the programme.
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Phase two: The Cycling City and Towns
• In 2008 another 11 more Cycling Towns and a Cycling City were recruited
• CDTs now in the second phase – all Towns funded until 2011
• New Towns are benefiting from the experience of the original six
• £100m investment package• Over 2.5 million people to
benefit
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Planning for cycling – the value of cycle
infrastructure
Economic case for cycling
Analysis of the cycling towns
investment
12
3
Conclusion: The Economic case proven!
Cycling as a mainstream modeof transport
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