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The progress of THORPEX activities in KMA
Dr. Kwan-Young Chung
Forecast Research Laboratory National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, Korea
ContentsContents
• Scientific goals of high impact weather (HIW) studies at NIMR
• National observation sites for HIW studies
• GPSs network over the Seoul metropolitan area
• Cloud radar project at NIMR
• Predictability and observation experiment studies- Establish the targeted observation system over ocean- Conduct the Observing System Simulation Experiment - High resolution modeling in Korea- UAV project in Korea
A schematic of HIW researches at NIMRA schematic of HIW researches at NIMR
Vision
Goal
Perfor-mance
Develop supersites with a highly advanced facilities to reduce damages due to severe weather phenomena
Mitigate socio-economic damages by enhancing the predictability of severe weather phenomena such as heavy rainfall, typhoons, heavy snowfall, etc.
Three dimensional observations and surveillance of severe weather phenomena
Develop a conceptual model and investigate the genesis and the development mechanism of severe weather phenomena over the Korean Peninsula
Optimize the observation system to enhance the predictability of severe weather
Conduct advanced studies by using cutting-edge observation instruments
Scientific goalsScientific goals
Changwon meteorological observatory
National observation sites for HIW studiesNational observation sites for HIW studies
Boseong National Center for Intensive Observation of severe weather (NCIO)
Intensive metropolitan observation sites around Seoul
(completed by 2014) SeoulSeoul
By 2014, we plan to establish a super-site around the Seoul metropolitan area
BoseongBoseongChangwon
1) Establish a 3-dimensional network of observing water vapor, clouds, severe weather phenomena2) Improve the predictability of high impact weather around the metropolitan area.
Metropolitan observation sites near Seoul Metropolitan observation sites near Seoul
Ka-band cloud radar
VHF wind profiler
UHF wind profiler
Ceilometers
Lightning observing network
RadiometerMicro rain radar
Autosonde
GPS
30km30kmSeoulSeoul
LAYOUT FOR LAYOUT FOR THE INSTRUMENTSTHE INSTRUMENTS
Instrumentation at Boseong site Instrumentation at Boseong site
Microwave radiometer
Wind profiling radarCeilometer
Micro rain radar Parsivel disdrometerOptical rain gauge
1290-MHz wind profiler : SNR, Doppler velocity, SW, Doppler spectra, winds K-band micro rain radar (MRR) : Radar reflectivity, rain rate, DSD, etc.Parsivel disdrometer : Radar reflectivity, fall speed, rain rate, Drop size spectra, etc.Optical rain gauge : rain rateCeilometer : cloud base height, visibility, etc.
Instrumentation at Changwon siteInstrumentation at Changwon siteK-band micro rain radar (MRR) : Radar reflectivity, rain rate, DSD, etc.Parsivel disdrometer : Radar reflectivity, fall speed, rain rate, drop size spectra, etc.22-channel microwave radiometer (Radiometrics) : T, RH, PWV, LWP, etc.14-channel microwave radiometer (RPG) : T, RH, PWV, LWP, etc.Autosonde : T, RH, winds, etc.Automatic Weather System : surface T, RH, pressure, winds, rainfall rate, etc. 1290-MHz wind profiler (KMA) : SNR, Doppler velocity, SW, Doppler spectra, winds
We established 16 GPS stations and plan to add ~20 GPS by 2014 for observing water vapor amounts around the Seoul metropolitan area.
GPSs network in the Seoul metropolitan area GPSs network in the Seoul metropolitan area
GPS studies
• Utilizes PWV estimates derived from ground-based GPS measurements using a signal delay in the troposphere.
• Can use near real-time PWV estimates for monitoring water vapor changes and utilizing them for improving the NWP model prediction.
Current GPS stations in Korea
• GPS stations: ~100 (~16 with met sensors)• NIMR : 16 stations were installed to date,
20 GPSs are to be added by 2014
SeoulSeoul
PWV comparison between GPS and RAOB
Boseong site (NCIO)Boseong site (NCIO)
Gangwha site(~50 km west of Seoul
)
Gangwha site(~50 km west of Seoul
)
Changwon siteChangwon site
A Ka-band cloud radar will be installed by March 2013 at the Boseong site
Cloud radar project at NIMR Cloud radar project at NIMR
Radar system composition Radar system composition
Cloud Radar- Antenna & Pedestal- Transmitter & Receiver- Radar Control System- Radar Display System
Subsidiary Facilities- Diagnostic Laptop- Color Laser Printer- UPS(Uninterrupted Power Supply)- Web Camera- Lightning Protector(lightning rod, etc.)
Radar Software- Operating S/W- Observation S/W- Data processing & management S/W- Analysis S/W- Calibration S/W
cable
transmitter
receiverpower
rack
desk
seat
antenna
air condition
air condition
platform
Specifications Specifications
* Cloud Radar is manufactured by Beijing Institute of Radio Measurement(BIRM).: Delivered a cloud radar to the China Aerospace Science & Industry Corporation (CASIC)and the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS)
Specifications
- Type : Pulsed Doppler, Dual polarization, Magnetron- Operating frequency : Ka-band(33.44GHz)- Sensitivity : ≤ -30dBZ @ 5km, 0.1sec. integration- Detection range : 180m – 15km- Azimuth : 0 ~ 360º- Elevation : -2º ~ 92º- Reflectivity : -50 ~ +30dBZ, accuracy ≤ 1dBZ(RMS)- Radial velocity : -20 ~ +20m/s(max), accuracy ≤ 1m/s(RMS)- Spectral width : 0 ~ 8m/s, accuracy ≤ 1m/s- Linear depolarization ratio : -30 ~ -5dBZ, accuracy ≤ 1dBZ- Range resolution : 15m, 30m, 60m- Angular resolution : ≤ 0.1º- Dimension(l x w x h) : 4500 x 2400 x 2257 mm(cabin only)
Data products Data products
< Original Data Product >Co-/Cross-polarized I/Q signal dataCo-/Cross-polarized power spectra data
Doppler spectra
Original Data ProductBasic Data ProductSecondary Data Product
< Basic Data Product >Reflectivity(R)Radial Velocity(RV)Spectral width(SW)Linear Depolarization Ratio(LDR)Signal Quality Index(SQI)Signal to Noise Ratio(SNR)
PPI
Vertical Pointing
RHI
( R )
(SW)
(RV)
(LDR)
Data productsData products
< Secondary Data Product >Cloud-base heightCloud thicknessLiquid water contentDrop-size distributionRainfall rateBright bandVertical wind profile
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.080.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5rain rate
I / mm/h
heig
ht /
km
Cloud height - thickness Rainfall rate profile
Bright band identification Wind profile
Original Data ProductBasic Data ProductSecondary Data Product
Cloud Lidars in KMACloud Lidars in KMA
Study for Cloud, Fog, Precipitation (KLAPS analysis)
Cooperation with KAF(Korea Air Force) (12 pieces)
FOG
RainCloud
CL51, CL31
• Tracking the storm scale HIW• Quick deployment of met. sensors to sparse observation areas where HIW is anticipated• Acquirement of very high dense measurements of surface variables
Mobile HIWs observation on vehicleMobile HIWs observation on vehicle
type year no usage
surface & sonde ’12-’13 4 Target area observation for sfc & upper air
surface observation ’14-’16 2/yr Dense surface observation for air mass fronts, Foehn and gap flows
Meteorological LIDAR ‘12-’14 1 High resolution measurement for clouds
x-band radar ‘14-’15 1 Storm scanning, chasing
Mobile HIWs observation on vehicleMobile HIWs observation on vehicleVariable Sensor type Range Resolution
Pressure Silicon capacitive 600 ~ 1100mb 0.01mb
Temperature Resistance -30 ~ 50°C 0.01°C
Relative Humidity Capacitance 0 ~ 100% 0.03%
Wind Direction Propeller-vane 0 ~ 60m/s 0.03m/s
Wind Speed Propeller-vane 0 ~ 355° 0.05°
Vehicle Location GPS 90°N/S,
180°E/W Est. 1m
Vehicle Speed GPS 0 ~>50m/s < 1m/s
Vehicle Heading GPS 0 ~ 360 < 1°
Data server
Laptop computerwireless
internet
Gateway
Mobile LIDAR systemMobile LIDAR systemPPI: Plan Position Indicator
RHI: Range-Height Indicator
3DI: Volume Image
Scan systemSlide door
Device rack
LIDAR
Lifter
Ex) NCAR arerosol LIDAR
Predictability & Observation Experiment in KoreaPredictability & Observation Experiment in Korea
Intensive Observation Campaigns conducted by NIMR
An adaptive observation study and observation experiment for enhancing the predictability of HIW- Since 2009 : Predictability and Observation Experiment of Korea(ProbeX)
National-level intensive observation campaign to understand the mechanism of severe weather phenomena- From 2001 to 2008 : Korea Enhanced Observing Program (KEOP)
Error growth “hot” zones
Why is the East Asia important ? - After 10 days, the United States would be affected ..
Korea Enhanced Observing Period (2001(2001--2008 )2008 )
KEOP 2002
East Asia Monsson
THORPEX (TTHORPEX (T--PARC 2008)PARC 2008)“Enhancing predictability of typhoon tracks & intensity using accurate obs. data”
Track of typhoon
Period : 1 August 2008 ~ 4 Octoberfocused on Western Pacific tropical cyclones, extratropical transition, and down-stream impactsPeriod : 1 August 2008 ~ 4 Octoberfocused on Western Pacific tropical cyclones, extratropical transition, and down-stream impacts
Extratropical Transition, Down-stream impactsNRL-P3
Tropical cyclone formationC130, DOTSTAR
Intensification, RecurvatureFalcon
THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008/Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the TAiwan Region
Flight track and location of dropsondes
Sensitivity area
Dropsonde observation for typhoon surveillance over the western North Pacific
Establish the Targeted Observation SystemEstablish the Targeted Observation SystemAdjoint sensitivity represents the gradient of some forecast aspect with respect to the control variables of
model(i.e., initial conditions, boundary conditions, and parameters) (Errico, 1997)Response function : Dry-TE
Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis(ESA) showed that the sensitivity regions for adaptive observations can be determined by the sensitivity of the forecast measure of interest to the initial ensembles.
Real – time adaptive observation
00z 12z 00z 12z06z 18z 06z 18z
Calculation
Post-process& Upload
Ti Ta Tv
24 hr
Data download& preprocess
24 hr
Targeted observation : Radiosonde, MRR, GPS etc.
ESA
00z
ADJ
`T `
` `T `
( , )( )
i i
i i i i
covJx var∂
= =∂
Jx J xx x x
22'2 '2 '2 '2 '2
, ,
1 ( ), ( )2
1 12
f r
y xs
R t t
gu v w pp dxdydN cσ
θ σθ ρ
= ⟨ ⟩
⎡ ⎤⎛ ⎞⎛ ⎞⎢ ⎥= + + + +⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠⎣ ⎦
∫∫∫
Me CMe
New Obs. Ship 2011Before 2011
Using German’s Plane
2015 Aircraft
Model : WRFV3.1Data Assimilation : EnKF (using DART)Simulation Data : ECMWF analysis U, V, T, Q (10 levels)Experiments : EXP1, EXP2, EXP3, EXP4, CNTL
Experiment Location Observation
EXP1 126.2°E, 33.9°N U, V, T, Q(925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100) EXP2 125°E, 34°N
EXP3 125°E, 31.5°N
EXP4 118°E, 36.5°NEXP4
EXP3
EXP2 EXP1 RMSE for 48hr SLP forecastEXP1 EXP2 EXP3 EXP4
Improvement(%) 2.3 5.2 7.8 9.5
Observing System Simulation ExperimentObserving System Simulation Experiment
Sensitivity
Observing System Experiments(Typhoon Meari) Observing System Experiments(Typhoon Meari)
9. JUL. 2011
CNTL
Initialized at 12 UTC 7JUL 2011
EXP
Initialized at 12 UTC 7JUL 2011
The experiment with GISNAG1 shows high ETS score above the critical value 10mm/12hr
With regard to ETS, the experiment with GISANG1 shows better score than control experiment
Initialization at 00 UTC 18 JulAveraged track error
CNTL: 96 km
EXP : 82.1 km
Improvement rate: 14.5 %
Initialization at 00 UTC 19 JulAveraged track error
CNTL : 141.9 km
GISANG1 : 128.9 km
Improvement rate: 9.1 %
Typhoon track errorTyphoon track error
Observing System Experiments Observing System Experiments
Wind profiler measurements of Typhoon Meari Wind profiler measurements of Typhoon Meari
Stronger winds and turbulence
Presence of large drops
Bright band
Strong Z streaks
Rainbands of MeariFrontal system
The “Changma” front has pre-existed from 22 June 2011 until Typhoon Meari approaches.
From 1400 UTC 25 June, the southern coastal area began to be directly affected by Meari.
Typhoon Meari moved north over the Yellow sea and became mid. lat. cyclone on 27 June.
Boseong site (NCIO)
Vortex center
Track of Meari
Frontal system
UAV in Stratosphere
Zephyr/Mercator (England)
Global Hawk ( US)
Fuel : Solar energyDuration of Flight : 30days(14 days in 2010)Pay load : 2.5kg, power : 50W,
Fuel : Air FuelDuration of Flight : 32 hrs (1st Scientific Flight in 2010)Pay load : about 680 kg, power : 3kW,
18~22km
S-UAV examples
GISTRadiometer Data
Processing CenterCalibration
���Ground Station
���Data Processing Center
Level 1 & Level 2BT Data, INS,
Orbit Data
Numerical Weather Modeling (NWM)Improve weather forecast(Water vapor, cloud liquidwater, etc.)
Climate change researchGPM local calibrationAcademic Research Etc.
Archive data
Cross track scan Foot print: 2~3 km
X-band data link
Stratosphere
Height: 20 km
Swath width: 40 km
Scan ± 45°
Operation of UAV in Korea (2013-2016)
High Resolution ModelHigh Resolution Model
Wild Fire modelling using WRF-FIRE
Horizontal resolution 200 m (U10, V10) from 1km WRF
High Resolution ModellingHigh Resolution Modelling
Very short range weather forecasting(up to 6 hrs)
Horizontal resolution : 100 m (U10, V10) from 1km WRF
[ winds 100m resolution] [ Application to several fields]
Thank you !!Thank you !!