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Corporate Presentation JANUARY 2012 THE PROSPECT OF INDONESIAN CEMENT INDUSTRY THE PROSPECT OF INDONESIAN CEMENT INDUSTRY ±41% Domestic Market Share SP SG ST

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Page 1: THE PROSPECT OF INDONESIAN CEMENT INDUSTRYsemenindonesia.com/assets/files/files/SMGRCorp... · THE PROSPECT OF INDONESIAN CEMENT INDUSTRY ... Semen Kupang does not produce or sell

Corporate PresentationJANUARY 2012

THE PROSPECT OF INDONESIAN CEMENT INDUSTRY

THE PROSPECT OF INDONESIAN CEMENT INDUSTRY

±41%Domestic Market Share

SP

SGST

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INDONESIA’S CEMENT INDUSTRY: NOW and THE FUTURESMGR Corporate Presentation

January 2012

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1. SMGR 22.5 mn ton- Semen Padang: 6.4 mn ton

- Semen Gresik : 11.4 mn ton

- Semen Tonasa : 4.7 mn ton

2. Semen Andalas 2) 1.6 mn ton3. Semen Baturaja 1.3 mn ton4. Indocement TP 18.6 mn ton5. Holcim Indonesia 8.5 mn ton6. Semen Bosowa 3.8 mn ton7. Semen Kupang 4) 0.5 mn ton

TOTAL 56.8 mn ton

CEMENT INDUSTRY AT A GLANCE

• Design Capacity : 54.4 mio ton 56.8 mio ton 63.9 mio ton• Domestic Growth : 17.7% 5.0% 5.0%• Domestic Utilization : 89% 89% 83%• Total Utilization : 91% 90% 85%• Supply Domestic : 48.0 mio ton 50.4 mio ton 53.0 mio ton Export : 1.2 mio ton 1.0 mio ton 1.5 mio ton Import : 1.8 mio ton2) 1.5 mio ton 3) 1.0 mio ton 3)

1) Based on the Company’s forecast2) Imported cement by PT Semen Andalas (1.0 mio ton) and clinker by Bosawa and SMGR3) Imported cement & clinker4) Semen Kupang does not produce or sell cement in the last 3 years due to its financial problem

Singapore

Kuala Lumpur

SMGR

22

11

33

4455

1

1

6677

THE PLAYERS and CAPACITY (2012)

SMGR: 22.5 mio ton (38% of Industry Cap.)

CEMENT INDUSTRY 2011 2012F 1) 2013F 1)

2

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COMPARISON: CEMENT CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA 2010

Source: UBS; Deutsche, Indonesia Cement Association

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Saudi Arabia

ChinaSouth Korea

Singapore

Malaysia

ItalyJapan

Vietnam

USAThailand

Germany

Indonesia

IndiaPhilipina

kg/capita

172

kgkg

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4Source: Indonesian Cement Association & BPS Statistic

Growth:

1.1%

Growth:

9.7%

Growth:

4.2%

Growth:

1.8%

Growth:

6.6%

Growth:

5.8%

Growth:

19.4%

Domestic consumption (LHS) GDP growth % (RHS)

(mio tons)

40,8

48,0

39,1

27,2 27,530,2 31,5 32,1

34,2

38,1

6,10%

5,6%

4,7%

5,1%5,4%

4,4%

6.3%

6.1% 4.60%

6,60%

6.0%

11.5%

4.2%

9.7%

2.5%

6.6%

1.8%1.1%

5.8%

17.7%

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%Cement growth % (RHS)

(F)(F)

INDONESIA HAS EXPERIENCED SOLID ECONOMIC AND DOMESTIC CEMENT CONSUMPTION GROWTH

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DOMESTIC MARKET CONSUMPTION (2011)

Retail (residential) sector is the largest consumer of cement in Indonesia

5

Bag80%

Bulk20%

Key Drivers of Domestic cement demand:• National Economic Growth• Favorable Interest Rate Environment• Infrastructure Expansion• Per Capita Consumption increase from

current low levels

• Ready-mix (infrastructure): ± 60%

• Fabricator (pre-cast, fiber cement, cement based industry): ± 35%

• Projects (mortar, render): ± 5%

• Ready-mix (infrastructure): ± 60%

• Fabricator (pre-cast, fiber cement, cement based industry): ± 35%

• Projects (mortar, render): ± 5%

• Housing: ± 90%

• Cement based industry: ± 10%

• Housing: ± 90%

• Cement based industry: ± 10%±

±

Source: Internal Research

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21,0

6,5

18,1

1,0

16,9

1,9

20,0

2,3

22,7

3,0

23,7

3,5

23,7

3,8

25,2

5,0

25,5

6,0

26,9

5,1

28,2

6,0

32,2

5,9

32,8

6,2

34,2

6,6

39,2

8,8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Bag Consumption Bulk Consumption

SO FAR INFRASTRUCTURE EXPANSION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY SLOW

Bag and Bulk cement consumption 1997 – 2011 (million tons)

6Source: Indonesia Cement Association and the Company’s data

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Region PopulationCement

Consump-tion (ton)

Cement Consumpt. Per Capita

(kg)

1. JAVA 136,563,142 21,996,688 161

2. SUMATERA 50,613,947 9,690,931 191

3. SULAWESI & MALUKU 19,926,385 3,421,522 172

4. KALIMANTAN 13,772,543 2,833,018 206

5. BALI & NUSA TENGGARA 13,067,599 2,326,931 178

6. PAPUA 3,612,854 513,287 142

Total Indonesia 237,556,470 40,782,377 172

MARKET BY GEOGRAPHY & CEMENT CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (FY2011)

Papua

Bali & N T

Kalimantan

Sulawesi

Population Distribution (2010)Population Distribution (2010)

Sumatera21.3% Java

57.5.%

8.4%

5.8% 5.5% 1.5%

7

REGIONMARKET SHARE (%)

SMGR INTP SMCB BSWA ANDLS BTRJA

1. JAVA 36.2 40.7 20.8 2.0 - 0.01

2. SUMATERA 43.1 15.5 11.7 3.0 16.0 11.0

3. SULAWESI 60.1 13.6 1.1 25.0 - -

4. KALIMANTAN 47.6 28.9 14.1 9.0 - -

5. NUSA TENGGR. 37.2 36.9 4.5 19.6 - -

6. EASTERN IND. 62.2 17.3 0.5 20.3 - -

TOTALINDONESIA

40.8 31.5 15.6 5.8 3.6 2.6

SG

SP

ST1

234

5

6

23.0%

7.3%7.0%

5.8% 1.6%

Java55.2%

Sumatera

Cement Distribution (2011)Cement Distribution (2011)

Domestic Market Share (FY2011)

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DOMESTIC DEMAND VS NATIONAL CAPACITY

40.80048.000 50.400 53.000 56.200 59.600 63.120

39.100

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016TAHUN

000

TONS

INSTALLED CAPACITY REAL PRODUCTION CEMENT CONSUMPTION

2.5% 5.0%6.0% 17.7% Real & ProjectedGrowth

5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%

Domestic Consumption

Domestic Consumption

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COMPANY PROFILESMGR Corporate Presentation

January 2012

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1957 : Inauguration of Gresik I, installed capacity of 250,000 ton cement per annum 1991 : Initial Public Offering, Market Cap.: IDR0.63tn, resulting shareholding structure post IPO:

● Government of Republic of Indonesia: 73% ● Public: 27%

1995 : Acquisition of PT Semen Padang (Persero) and PT Semen Tonasa (Persero) 1998 : Cemex became a strategic partner, Market Cap.: IDR4.9tn 2006 : Blue Valley Holdings bought Cemex’s 24.9% stake in SMGR, Market Cap.: IDR21.5tn 2010 : In March 31, Blue Valley Holdings sold all of its stake ownership in SMGR, Market Cap per March 31, 2010: IDR43.3tn 2011 : Total installed capacity of 20.00mm tons, Market Cap per Dec 30, 2011: IDR67.9tn 2012 : Targeted total installed capacity of 22.50mm tons

BRIEF HISTORYBRIEF HISTORY

SMGR IS THE #1 CEMENT COMPANY IN INDONESIA

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

1957

1970

1980

1984

1985

1986

1990

1995

1997

1998

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

SMGR CAPACITY BUILD-OUT (MM TONS)SMGR CAPACITY BUILD-OUT (MM TONS)

Pre-consolidated capacityPre-consolidated capacity

Post-consolidated capacity

Based capacity: 16.9 mio tons

Upgrading: 3.1 mio tons

Installed capacity: 22.5 mio tons (2012)

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Public The Government of the Republic of Indonesia

PT Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk.

PT Semen Padang PT Semen Tonasa

OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE1OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE1

FOCUSES IN CORE BUSINESS

¹ As of April 09, 2010

Four subsidiaries Non-cement producers:

51.01% 48.99%

99.99% 99.99%

Name Activities % Ownership

1. Igasar Cement distribution 12.00%

2. Sepatim B General trading, cement packaging 85.00%

3. Bima SA General trading, cement packaging 80.00%

4. SUPS Cement Packaging 10.00%

Six subsidiaries Non-cement producers:

Name Activities % Ownership

1. UTSG Limestone & Clay Mining 55.00%

2. IKSG Cement Packaging 60.00%

3. KIG Industrial Estate 65.00%

4. Swadaya Gra Steel fabrication, contractor 25.00%

5. Varia Usaha Transport and general trading 24.90%

6. Eternit Gresik Building materials 17.60%

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Total production capacity EoY 2011: 19.8 mn tons and targetted EoY 2012: 22.2 mn tons Nationwide distribution networks: 361 Distributors 35 distribution warehouses in all areas of Java, Bali, Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Papua Operate 4 special sea ports: Padang, Tuban, Gresik, Biringkassi 18 large packing plants

SMGR’s PRODUCTION FACILITIES ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY STRATEGICALLY LOCATED MARKETING AND DISTRIBUTION FACILITIES (2011)

TelukBayur

Sumatera

Kalimantan

SulawesiMaluku

Papua

LombokBaliJava

Batam

Ciwandan

Tanjung Priok Jakarta

Samarinda

Banjarmasin

Palu

Bitung

Ambon

Makassar

Biringkasi

BaliTabananDenpasarSingarajan

DI YogyakartaLempuyanganJanti

Central JavaTegalPurwokertoKudusMagelangSolo/PalurAlas TuwoMojopahitSayung

West JavaSerangTangerangBogorCibitungBandungTasik MalayaCirebonNarogong

Belawan

Singapore

Kuala Lumpur

Tuban

Surabaya

Cement Plant

Packing PlantPort

Warehouse

East JavaMargomulyoTanjung WangiBangkalanSwabina

Aceh

Pelabuhan Tuban

Pelabuhan Gresik

Installed Cap.:6.1 mn tons

Installed Cap.:10.0 mn tons

Installed Cap.:4.1 mn tons

Gresik

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3.0% 2.7%

5.2%4.1%

3.2%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Average: 3,6%

2.0% 1.6%

3.2%

1.0%

JSX

Top-20

*)

INTP SMCB SMGR

SMGR DIVIDEND YIELD IN THE LAST 5 YEARS 1)SMGR DIVIDEND YIELD IN THE LAST 5 YEARS 1)

*):Based on median of Top-20 Biggest Market Capitalization JSX listed companies in dividend yield, excluding Semen Gresik for FY2010

2010 DIVIDEND YIELD 1)2010 DIVIDEND YIELD 1)

REGULAR DIVIDENDSREGULAR DIVIDENDS

Key determinants of dividend policy:• Historical dividend payout trends• Comparison with peers• Projected cash-flows available for dividends (after taking into account

potential expansionary capex etc)• Analyst and investor expectations• Shareholder profile

REGULAR DIVIDEND PAYMENTS WITH ATTRACTIVE YIELD

1) shares price based on closing price at the end of year

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MARKET UPDATESMGR Corporate Presentation

January 2012

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MARKET UPDATE - Cement Consumption FY2010 and FY2011

DESCRIPTION 2010 2009 CHANGE (%)

DOMESTIC 17,64 17,82 (1.0)

EXPORT 0.29 0,60 (52.9)

GRAND TOTAL 17,93 18,43 (2.8)

FY 2010 – Cement Consumption (mio tons)

Java 21,99 21,15 4.0

Sumatera 9,69 8,87 9.2

Kalimantan 2,83 2,44 15.8

Sulawesi 3,04 3,00 1.5

Nusa Tenggara 2,32 2,18 6.6

Maluku & Papua 0,88 0,80 10.4

TOTAL IND. 40,78 38,46 6.0

Export Semen 0,77 1,23 (37.2)

Export Clinker 2,10 2,79 (24.7)

Total Export 2,88 4,03 (28.5)

GRAND TOTAL 43,66 42,49 2.7

*) Source: Indonesia Cement Association, un-audited figures*) Source: Indonesia Cement Association, un-audited figures

15

DESCRIPTION 2011 2010 CHANGE (%)

DOMESTIC 19,591,300 17,639,686 11.1

EXPORT 127,148 290,551 (56.2)

GRAND TOTAL 19,718,448 17,930,237 10.0

Jakarta 6,630,161 3,820,650 21.2

Banten 2,779,158 2,091,186 32.9

West Java 7,060,905 5,875,212 20.2

Central Java 5,302,862 4,471,010 18.6

Yogyakarta 762,668 611,889 24.6

East Java 5,979,268 5,126,741 16.6

Total Java 26,515,022 21,996,688 20.5

Sumatera 11,027,719 9,690,931 13.8

Kalimantan 3,360,842 2,833,018 18.6

Sulawesi 3,526,632 3,046,896 15.7

Nusa Tenggara 2,779,241 2,326,931 19.4

Maluku & Papua 790,889 887,912 (10.9)

TOTAL INDONESIA 48,000,345 40,782,376 17.7

Export Cement 252,340 776,297 (67.5)

Export Clinker 999,588 2,106,699 (52.6)

Total Export 1,251,928 2,882,996 (56.6)

GRAND TOTAL 49,252,273 43,665,372 12.8

FY2011 – Cement Consumption (mio tons)

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FINANCIAL UPDATESMGR Corporate Presentation

January 2011

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FINANCIAL SUMMARY: FY2010 RESULTS

EBITDA (Rp billion)

NET INCOME (Rp billion)NET INCOME (Rp billion)

EBITDA Margin (%)EBITDA Margin (%)

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

25.6 29.7 31.7 33.2 34.6

NET INCOME Margin (%)NET INCOME Margin (%)

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY1014.8 18.5 20.7 23.1 25.3

Description(Rpbn)

FY2009 FY2010 Change (%)

Revenue 14,388 14,344 (0.3)

Cost of revenue 7,614 7,534 (1.0)

Gross profit 6,774 6,810 0.5

Operating expenses 2,432 2,321 (4.5)

Operating income 4,343 4,489 3.4

Ebitda 4,773 4,970 4.1

Net Income 3,326 3,633 9.2

EPS (full amount) 566 613 8.3

4,9704,773

3,867

2,8492,234

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

3,6333,326

2,524

1,7751,296

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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FINANCIAL SUMMARY: 9M-2011 RESULTS

EBITDA (Rp billion)

NET INCOME (Rp billion)NET INCOME (Rp billion)

EBITDA Margin (%)EBITDA Margin (%)

9M-07 9M-08 9M-09 9M-10 9M-11

29.1% 31.6% 32.5% 34.5% 32.8%

NET INCOME Margin (%)NET INCOME Margin (%)

Description(Rpbn)

9M-2010

9M-2011

Change (%)

Revenue 10,292 11,611 12.8

Cost of revenue 5,356 6,328 18.1

Gross profit 4,936 5,283 7.0

Operating expenses 1,729 1,881 8.8

Operating income 3,207 3,402 6.1

Ebitda 3,546 3,805 7.3

Net Income 2,522 2,761 9.5

EPS (full amount) 465 425 9.42.761

1.272

1.791

2.408 2.522

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

9M07 9M08 9M09 9M10 9M11

9M-07 9M-08 9M-09 9M-10 9M-11

17.9% 20.3% 23.1% 24.5% 23.8%

3.8053.5463.3792.783

2.063

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

9M07 9M08 9M09 9M10 9M11

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STRATEGIC PROJECTSSMGR Corporate Presentation

January 2011

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2020

SMGR LONG TERM STRATEGIC FOCUS

SMGRSMGR

THE OVERALL

STRATEGY

COMBINES

66 CRITICAL

ELEMENTS

1. Undertake Capacity Growth

2. Manage Energy Security

3. Enhance Company Image

4. Move Closer To The Customer

5. Enable Corporate Growth

6. Manage Key Risks

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2121

Cement Finish GrindingPreparation Bored Pile

Coal StorageSteel Structure

Jetty Extension Area

TubanTuban

TonasaTonasa

TonasaTonasa

New Power Plant Area

New Plants Location

Capacity (mn tons)

Investment (US$ mn)

Construction

Start Completed

Java 2.5 304 2009 Mar 2012

Sulawesi 2.5 290 2009 Jun 2012

Sub Total 5.0 594

Power Plants Location

Capacity (MW)

Investment (US$ mn)

Construction

Start Completed

Sulawesi 2 x 35 114 2010 Nov 2012

TOTAL CAPEX US$ 708mn

CEMENT PLANTS & POWER PLANT PROJECTS

These strategic projects will ensure sustainability of the Company’s market leadership

Preheater Tuban IV

Blending Silo Tonasa V

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Progress of Tonasa V Cement Plant Project Progress of Tuban IV Cement Plant Project

Progress of Power Plant Project - Tonasa 2 x 35 MW

PROGRESS OF CEMENT & POWER PLANT PROJECTS – December 31, 2011

22

Description Weight Planning Actual

Preparation 0.39% 100.00% 100.00%

Management 2.88% 100.00% 98.19%

Engineering 3.83% 100.00% 100.00%

Procurement 72.82% 100.00% 99.26%

Construction 18.03% 100.00% 78.86%

Commissioning 2.05% 100.00% 5.05%

Total 100 % 100.00% 93.65%

Description Weight Planning Actual

Preparation 0.12% 100.00% 100.00%

Management 5.58% 100.00% 99.18%

Engineering 4.14% 100.00% 100.00%

Procurement 69.41% 100.00% 99.83%

Construction 18.77% 100.00% 91.83%

Commissioning 1.97% 100.00% 66.95%

Total 100 % 100.00% 97.65%

Description Weight Planning Actual

Preparation 2.63% 100.00% 100.00%

Management 4.60% 70.68% 72.17%

Engineering 5.75% 99.77% 98.62%

Procurement 55.13% 85.86% 82.25%

Construction 26.45% 51.63% 43.98%

Commissioning 5.44% 0.00% 0.18%

Total 100% 72.61% 68.61%

Preheater Tonasa VPreheater Tuban IV

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DESIGN CAPACITY (Mio Ton)

15.216.7 17.8 17.7 19.6

22.5

25.927.3

30.0

1,81,0

0,7 0,3

0,1

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

17.118.0

19.0 19.0

Export sales ▪

Domestic sales ▪

Export sales ▪

Domestic sales ▪

20.2

Based Capacity

Based Capacity

Up-grading

Up-grading

New Capacity

New Capacity

16.9

3.1

10.0

23

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CONCLUSION: WHY SMGR?SMGR Corporate Presentation

January 2011

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252525

SMGR’s COMPARATIVE & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE HAS DRIVEN SMGR TO BE THE MARKET LEADER IN INDONESIA

Outstanding performance

Experienced management

team

Conservative capital structure

and financial policies

Robust cash flow generation

Outstanding business

performance

Favorable industry outlook

Outstanding business performance– Leading cement player in Indonesia with over 41% market share based on

sales volume for 2010 and approximately 37% share of total installed cement capacity (Source: Indonesia Cement Association (“ASI”))

– Strategically located plants proximate to key markets throughout the country

– Substantial growth opportunities through expansion and optimization– Superior distribution network and strong brands recognition– Long-term access to raw materials for cement production and coal for fuel

consumption– Concerns on environmental and Corporate Social Responsibility programs to

ensure sustainable growth.

Favourable industry outlook– Cement consumption pretty much in-line with Indonesian economic growth– Real estate and infrastructure projects and declining interest rates key

demand drivers– High barriers to entry (plant, distribution and brand investment costs)– Disciplined investment on supply side

Robust cash flow generation– Historically strong revenue, margin and price trends– High plant utilization and strong focus on cost and revenue management

Conservative capital structure and financial policies– [Investment grade-like credit metrics]– Conservative capital structure policy; low use of leverage– Access to capital markets for expansion initiatives

Experienced management team– Experienced and successful management team

Strengths of SMGR

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Main Office:Main Building of Semen Gresik

Jln. Veteran Gresik 61122 –Indonesia

Phone: (62-31) 3981731 -2, 3981745Fax: (62-31) 3983209, 3972264

Representative Office:Gedung The East, 18th Floor,Jln. Lingkar Mega Kuningan Kav. E3.2 No. 1,Jakarta 12950 – IndonesiaPhone : (62-21) 5261174 – 5Fax : (62-21) 5261176

www.semengresik.com

THANK YOUTHANK YOUIMPORTANT NOTICE

THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR FORM PART OF, AND IS NOT MADE IN CONNECTION WITH, ANY OFFER FOR SALE OR SUBSCRIPTION OF OR SOLICITATION,RECOMMENDATION OR INVITATION OF ANY OFFER TO BUY OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SECURITIES NOR SHALL IT OR ANY PART OF IT FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED ON INCONNECTION WITH ANY CONTRACT, COMMITMENT OR INVESTMENT DECISION WHATSOEVER.THE SLIDES USED IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL AND HAVE BEEN PREPARED AS A SUPPORT FOR ORAL DISCUSSIONS ONLY. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED INTHIS PRESENTATION IS BEING PRESENTED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR REDISTRIBUTED TO ANY OTHER PERSON, IN WHOLE OR INPART.This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations and forecast about future events. Such statements involve known / unknown risks uncertaintiesand other factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Such factors include, among others:● economic, social and political conditions in Indonesia, and the impact such conditions have on construction and infrastructure spending in Indonesia;● the effects of competition;● the effects of changes in laws, regulations, taxation or accounting standards or practices;● acquisitions, divestitures and various business opportunities that we may pursue;● changes or volatility in inflation, interest rates and foreign exchange rates;● accidents, natural disasters or outbreaks of infectious diseases, such as avian influenza, in our markets;● labor unrest or other similar situations; and● the outcome of pending or threatened litigation.We can give no assurance that our expectations will be attained.

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