the psa’s project on risk management · the psa’sproject on risk management ... iso 31000 a...
TRANSCRIPT
PTIL/PSA
The PSA’s project on
Risk Management
WIF Seminar June14th 2017
Else Riis Rasmussen
PTIL/PSA
Contents
- What is Risk Management?
- Why did we launch the “new” risk concept (January 1st 2015)?
- How has the industry responded to the new concept?
- What characterizes good risk management?
- Possible pitfalls
- Key elements/criteria for success
PTIL/PSA
Framework
• No activity can be conducted without risk,
but this risk can be managed
• Overall goal:- The petroleum operations shall be carried out
in an integrated, managed and acceptable manner
• Function- and risk based regulations- Includes principles and key elements for risk management
• Standards
PTIL/PSA
“Coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk”(ISO 31000)
What is risk
management?
“Balance between developing
and creating value, and
preventing accidents,
injuries and losses”(Aven 2007)
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Previous
• Risk = probability x consequence
Now
• New concept highlightinguncertainty and knowledge
Deliveries
• January 1st 2015
- New, enhanced risk concept, MR§11
• February 24th 2016
- Our report on the risk concept
Input
• Research, NOROG, industry, previous PSA publications
Highlighting
• The managerial part of balanced and integrated risk management
• Principles and key elements
• Operating phase
Delivery
• Our report on Risk Management
Phase 1: The risk concept 2013-2016 Phase 2: Risk management 2016-2017
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The PSA’s report on the risk concept, issued 2016
1. Risk - associated with uncertainty about consequences
2. Risk - related to the consequences of the business
3. Risk and risk management - more than calculations
The consequences of
activities, with associated
uncertainty
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Industry response / our experiences
• NOROG- Report on risk – Black Swan - in line with the PSA’s risk concept
- Fit for purpose analyses
- HC-leakages, etc.
• Visualization tools- Compilation of data that can help in estimating risk; classification, indicators
- Describing dynamic risk overviews, adapted to different user groups
- Describing uncertainty
• Improved analysis models and methods- New ignition and leakage frequecy models
- Improved methods to reflect premises and uncertainties
• Barrier management
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The risk concept
Risk management
The consequences of
activities, with associated
uncertainty
How does the risk concept
influence the way we execute
risk management?
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Bertrand Russells
Turkey
• A turkey is fed every day at 09.00
• After a few days it formulates a rule
• The days go by and every day it
feels more and more safe
• The day before Thanksgiving it has
been 1000 days, and the turkey is
completely convinced of the rule
• On Thanksgiving the rule is broken…
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Known, but outside
analysis scope
Context and
factors covered by
the analysis
Relevant
frequency
data
UnknownThe risk
concept
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Report on risk management, work in progress
Decision problemDecision alternatives
Analyses and evaluations
Risk and decision analyses
Material review and judgement
Stakeholder values
Goals, criteria and preferences
Decision
ISO 31000
A decision-making process model (Aven, 2003)
PTIL/PSA
What is risk management about?
• It is not- A verification process for marginal solutions
- Risk management is much more than risk assessment / risk analysis
• It is- Recognizing that there is always risk as long as there is activity
- Establishing risk related knowledge prior to a decision
- Assessing and prioritizing resources to the most beneficial areas
- Ensuring robust and inherently safe solutions
- Managing residual risk
• Risk management need to be an integral part of management and decision making processes- The managerial part is essential
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Main principles in
risk management
• Inherently safe and robust solutions
• Barriers
• Risk reduction requirements
• Continuous improvement
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Key elements
• Leadership & HSE-culture
• Employee participation
• Fit for purpose analyses and decision criteria
• Handling deviations and changes
• Dealing with uncertainty
• Managing residual risk
IDENTIFY – COMMUNICATE – HANDLE - IMPROVE
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Summary
• Risk management in progress
• Research and development over several years contribute positively to enhanced risk management
• Our report on the risk concept will be continued with a report on risk management
• Our perspective highlights- Uncertainty and knowledge
- The managerial part of risk management
- Risk management is not a verification process of marginal solutions
- Principles and key elements in risk management
• We believe in balanced and integrated risk management- A balance between creating value and preventing accidents
- Risk management as an integral part of management and decision making processes
- Dealing with uncertainty, building knowledge prior to decisions, managing residual risk
PTIL/PSA
Previous PSA publications
• Risikobegrepet i petroleumsvirksomheten 2016
- http://www.ptil.no/getfile.php/1337784/PDF/RISIKORAPPORT%202016%20nett.pdf
• Barrierenotatet 2017
- http://www.ptil.no/getfile.php/1343444/PDF/BARRIEREnotat%20%202017.pdf
• Indikatorblues 2016
- http://www.ptil.no/getfile.php/1339011/Publikasjoner/indikatorblues-enkle%20sider-lav.pdf
• En bok om læring 2013
- http://www.ptil.no/getfile.php/1339011/Publikasjoner/indikatorblues-enkle%20sider-lav.pdf
• HMS og kultur 2014
- http://www.ptil.no/getfile.php/131517/z%20Konvertert/Produkter%20Og%20Tjenester/Publikasjoner/Dokumenter/hmskulturnorsk.pdf
• Tilrettelegging for arbeidstakermedvirkning og partssamarbeid 2016
- http://www.ptil.no/getfile.php/1340874/PDF/Rapporter/20161005%20Utredning%20arbeidstakermedvirkning%20mv.pdf
• Sluttrapport DWH 2014
- http://www.ptil.no/getfile.php/1326666/PDF/Deepwater/Ptils%20avsluttende%20DwH-rapport_2014.pdf
• Virksomhetsstyring og storulykkesrisiko 2012
- http://www.ptil.no/getfile.php/1316719/Tilsyn%20p%C3%A5%20nettet/tilsynrapporter%20pdf/2008_568_rapport%20virksomhetsstyring%20og%20storulykkesrisiko.pdf
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Thank you for
your attention