the railway system - beckford...
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The Railway System
Professor John BeckfordBeckford Consulting
Email: [email protected]
Phone: 07785 360249
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
John Beckford
• Systems Scientist– Visiting Prof, Department of Information Science, Loughborough– Partner, Beckford Consulting
• Worked in rail sector with– GNER, Northern Rail, National Express
• Researched and reported on:– Infrastructure Resilience for DfT, – Systemic Interactions for BIS, DefRA– Interdependency, Royal Academy of Engineering
• Key Outputs– Contribution to CST Report, 2009, An Infrastructure for the 21st Century– Infrastructure Resilience Matters
• Current Commission– Systemic Risk and Opportunity Analysis for Infrastructure UK
• An research project on behalf of BIS and Infrastructure UK• Reporting to Ministerial level
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
The Council for Science & Technology Report, 2009
‘An Infrastructure for the 21st Century’
The effects of serious NI failures on business and public confidence are likely to be far reaching and long-lasting, with inevitable economic and political consequences if that failure is localised in the UK……………..
…..the last 50 years has been the gradual, but ultimately seismic, shift from a series of unconnected structures to an interconnected NI where failure in one part has a direct and damaging knock-on effect in others………..
……The UK national infrastructure is now a network of networks
Systemic Interaction
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Energy Supply
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
Systemic Interaction
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Transport
Transport Systems
Road Rail
WaterAir
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
• Understanding Systemic Thinking• Interaction
– The existence of ‘system’ is rooted in the connectivity and interdependence, of one entity with another or others
– This inter-relationships constitute a network which has to be dealt with in its totality – it is a ‘system’
– Key ideas: » Von Bertalanffy, Wiener, Checkland, Beer, Ackoff, Forrester
Systemic Interaction
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
• Understanding Systemic Thinking• Interaction
– The existence of ‘system’ is rooted in the connectivity and interdependence, of one entity with another or others
– This inter-relationships constitute a network which has to be dealt with in its totality – it is a ‘system’
– Key ideas: » Von Bertalanffy, Wiener, Checkland, Beer, Ackoff, Forrester
• Interdependency– The functioning of one element of the infrastructure depends on one
or more other elements– Issues cannot be resolved in isolation
Systemic Interaction
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
• Understanding Systemic Thinking• Interaction
– The existence of ‘system’ is rooted in the connectivity and interdependence, of one entity with another or others
– This inter-relationships constitute a network which has to be dealt with in its totality – it is a ‘system’
– Key ideas: » Von Bertalanffy, Wiener, Checkland, Beer, Ackoff, Forrester
• Interdependency– The functioning of one element of the infrastructure depends on one
or more other elements– Issues cannot be resolved in isolation
• Emergent properties– Systems exhibit properties that belong only to the system – not to
any of its elements
Systemic Interaction
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
• Understanding Systemic Thinking• Interaction
– The existence of ‘system’ is rooted in the connectivity and interdependence, of one entity with another or others
– This inter-relationships constitute a network which has to be dealt with in its totality – it is a ‘system’
– Key ideas: » Von Bertalanffy, Wiener, Checkland, Beer, Ackoff, Forrester
• Interdependency– The functioning of one element of the infrastructure depends on one
or more other elements– Issues cannot be resolved in isolation
• Emergent properties– Systems exhibit properties that belong only to the system – not to
any of its elements» “The Railway” is a system of systems» Its emergent property is “The Journey”
Systemic Interaction
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Station
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Station
Permanent
Way
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Station
Permanent
Way
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Station
Permanent
Way
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Land
Management
System
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Station
Permanent
Way
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Land
Management
System
Ticketing
System
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Station
Permanent
Way
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Land
Management
System
Ticketing
System
Ownership
System
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Station
Permanent
Way
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Land
Management
System
Ticketing
System
Ownership
System
Track Use
System
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Station
Permanent
Way
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Land
Management
System
Ticketing
System
Ownership
System
Track Use
System
Regulatory
System
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Station
Permanent
Way
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Land
Management
System
Ticketing
System
Ownership
System
Track Use
System
Regulatory
System
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Station
Permanent
Way
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Land
Management
System
Ticketing
System
Ownership
System
Track Use
System
Regulatory
System
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Station
Permanent
Way
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Land
Management
System
Ticketing
System
Ownership
System
Track Use
System
Regulatory
System
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Station
Permanent
Way
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Land
Management
System
Ticketing
System
Ownership
System
Track Use
System
Regulatory
System
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Station
Permanent
Way
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Land
Management
System
Ticketing
System
Ownership
System
Track Use
System
Regulatory
System
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Station
Permanent
Way
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Land
Management
System
Ticketing
System
Ownership
System
Track Use
System
Regulatory
System
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
Rail
Vehicle
Propulsion
System
Control
System
Operator
Energy
Supply
Station
Permanent
Way
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Maintenance
System
Land
Management
System
Ticketing
System
Ownership
System
Track Use
System
Regulatory
System
Systemic Interaction –The Journey
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
• “The Railway” is a system– Either it all works or none of it works!
• Massively interconnected
• Ageing Infrastructure (despite best efforts)– Congested
– Beyond Design Capacity
– Questionable Resilience
– Embedded Potential for Systemic or Cascade Failure
• Complexity
• Rooted in increasing and often unrecognised interdependencies
• Increasing reliance on ICT (new vehicles, signals, services)
• Must respond to potential of Climate Change
The Point?
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
• Einstein on madness?
– “Doing the same thing and expecting a different result”
• If we want to change the way things work (and it rather looks like we need to) then we need to adopt different methods
“Something must be done!”
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
• Collaborate across ‘corporate’ boundaries– The structure may not be ideal – but it is what we have!
• Short term consider– Water ingress resistant equipment on track and trains
– Maintenance of all land management systems to higher standards • Use UK CP09 as a basis of evaluating need?
• Evaluate where condition based maintenance would deliver greater benefit than time-based maintenance
– Develop cross-sector enhanced ‘business continuity’ plans• Generic solutions applicable to multiple areas with similar circumstances
• Repair “kits” – temporary bridges, temporary signals?
– Adopt or develop ‘system-wide’ forecasting, planning and simulation
“Something must be done!”
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
• Long term– Consider the systemic risks and opportunities AND the resilience of
the international supply-chain for vehicles, permanent way, signalling, spares etc
– Understand and manage the impact of changes in information systems – and how to compensate when they are compromised
– Consider the risks and opportunities embedded in the power supply arrangements – especially security and continuity of electricity supply
– Consider the travel arrangements of staff whose presence may be vital to operation but whose journey to work may be compromised by non-rail events
“Something must be done!”
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014
“Something must be done!”
Think
Railway
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2014