the reality of – big crew change in e&p
DESCRIPTION
E&P's resource crunch is top news world-over. It is conventionally analyzed as the consequence of 1) Cyclicity in E&P (oil prices, industry boom, recruitment) 2) Lower interest in E&P subjects due to dominant perception of the business being CAUSE for climate change (dirty business) 3) Sophistication of the technical subjects - needing "EXPERT" guidance This presentation analyses it from a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT perspective. E&P crew crunch is due to "lagging behind" in the science and technology methodology. It can be proved that E&P is indeed significantly stuck in 20th century principles and concepts.TRANSCRIPT
PERSPECTIVES - BIG CREW CHANGE
Change is also changing in hitherto unknown ways!
Modified from a presentation made at Petrotech-2014 Pre-Conference workshop “Leveraging IT resources for enhancing energy security” on 10-Jan-2014 @ The Lalit, New Delhi
Crew of the Great Alexander
13-Jan-14 Dr. G Srikanth.
http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/8908/rsiiseleucid.jpg
20th century army (last seen in action Iraq war)
13-Jan-14 Dr. G Srikanth.
http://www.democracynow.org/special/iraq_war_10_year_anniversary
21st Century war
1. Autonomous micro-drones
2. Cyber warfare
3. Bio-warfare
4. Video Games as training fields
5. +++
13-Jan-14 Dr. G Srikanth.
Micro-drones
Transformational Changes Every change is not transformational
13-Jan-14 Dr. G Srikanth.
Dominant Areas Significant Indicators & Results
1. Communications 1970-2014 : From telegram to Live-video interaction: everywhere. Social Networks is offshoot
2. Systems Biology 1990-2014 : From descriptive, classifications to dynamic numerical science
3. Warfare 2000-2014 : Bullet is old-fashioned?
I. Quantum (10-100 times) improved access, reliability, performance
II. A new hitherto unknown science. Quantum leap in understanding and assimilating . A new 21st century opportunity
III. Control and governance through distributed high-fidelity techniques
New Slide
Crew Change – Relevant Questions
Is the E&P science & technology TRANSFORMATIONAL?
If Yes
Does the Great Army has relevant – i)Learning; ii) Axiomatic Framework; iii) A3(Attitude, Aptitude & Abilities) ???
If Not
i) Less progressive than other technology industries?
ii) In the control of the Great Ageing Army?
iii) E&P is unique and so resisting change?
13-Jan-14 Dr. G Srikanth.
What is your call?
New Slide
E&P uniqueness and commonality
1. Guaranteed Demand : Supplier ability to control prices by many methods
2. Critical and irreplaceable product
3. Self-determined growth and performance metrics
i. Knowledge Intensive and Technology business
ii. Risk + Uncertainty
iii. Multi-disciplinary (~60 sciences & engineering)
iv. Data and methodology intensive
13-Jan-14 Dr. G Srikanth.
INDICATORS, MEASURES AND METRICS OF CHANGES IN SCIENCES & TECHNOLOGIES OF E&P – IS A SEPARATE TOPIC
All Sciences progress with time. A 30-50 year perspective would see every aspect of human endeavor change and develop Changes can be simple, incremental, progressive and linear Changes can be transformational
13-Jan-14 Dr. G Srikanth.
New Slide
E&P change is ‘Transformational’
1. All transformational changes have used ‘computer science’ as the agent (including the communication revolution)
2. Completely new approaches have occurred in all such transformational areas. Paradigm changes in method, analysis & inference!
3. 50+Y aged workforce do not have any formal computer science learning
4. Why and How are they (at large) are becoming ‘critical’?
13-Jan-14 Dr. G Srikanth.
New Slide
New Slide
E&P change is Not ‘Transformational’
1. Uncertainty (and Risk) continue to dominate (No 1 issue)
2. Performance and Reliability in Discovery and Development are highly disparate
3. ‘Computer Science’ is not learnt or practiced in any of the E&P Core-Disciplines (Geoscience, Reservoir Engineering, Petroleum Engineering, Drilling or Management)
4. Empirical models developed in 20th century drive - Black-box tools supplied by ‘service companies’
5. HPC and computation is from use of tools on volume data (created by transformational electronics and device industry)
6. Offshore- Deep-offshore- Shale-gas are new industrial frontiers of the E&P – supported by the high prices and rapid growth in engineering technology
13-Jan-14 Dr. G Srikanth.
21st century Science paradigm
1. Data Intensive Scientific Discovery (DISD)
2. Discovery using Petabytes of databases
3. Crowd-sourcing “innovation”, “discovery” and “growth”
4. Radically changed from 20th century approaches
5. Intensely dependent on “Computer Science”
EXAMPLES: Proteomics, Genomics, Particle Physics, Astronomy, Medicine etc.
13-Jan-14
Dr. G Srikanth. [email protected] 11
Crew change as Opportunity
Elevate E&P to 21st century science methodology
Provide a measured (higher) efficiency in performance
Bring accountability
E&P cannot be unique among human endeavors.
Crew change is not specific to E&P
Other have changed their science models – E&P is retaining the past
13-Jan-14 Dr. G Srikanth.
Cook-book for change – A new modern Army
1. Computer Science as a pillar: Include in Academic programs & Professional competency matrix
2. Data as central: Capture both structured and unstructured data into organized repositories {Data into Databases}
3. Workflows & Analytical methods: Broad based, repeatable, verifiable, and open (e.g. biosciences)
4. Collaboration: Reassess the ‘secrecy’ model
13-Jan-14
Dr. G Srikanth. [email protected] 13
DISCLAIMER: VIEWS AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED ARE ONE INDIVIDUAL AND PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE. AUTHOR ALSO HOLDS AND VERIFIES DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES!
IF YOU CANNOT BE THE LEADER – BE A SMART FOLLOWER
Future is NOT what it used to be!
13-Jan-14 Dr. G Srikanth.