the registrar general's annual review of demographic ... · the gap between the most and least...

0

100

200

300

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

COVID-19 has been mentioned on 4,257 death certificates in 2020 so far

There have been 47,410 deaths from all causes.

This is 4,306 more deaths compared to the average over the last 5 years.

To date 46% of COVID-19 deaths have occurred in care homes and another 47% of deaths in hospitals.

Around 7% of deaths occurred at home or non-institutional settings.

Deprived and urban areas have higher death rates

Adjusting for age, people in the most deprived areas were twice as likely to die with COVID-19 than those living in the least deprived areas.

Deprived areas have relatively more overcrowded housing and limited access to outdoor greenspace.

Deaths involving COVID-19 (weekly)

Location of deaths involving COVID-19 (weekly)

COVID-19 death rate (per 100,000) by deprivation and urban/rural

Most deaths so far have been in hospital or a care home

Hospital

Home orNon-institution

Care home

Deprivation

Twice as high between the most and least deprived areas

Quintile 1 (most deprived)

Quintile 2

Quintile 3

Quintile 4

Quintile 5 (least deprived)

123.6

92.5

73.4

69.9

59.3

Over 4 times as high between large urban and remote rural areas

Urban and ruralLarge Urban Areas

Other Urban Areas

Accessible Small Towns

Remote Small Towns

Accessible Rural Areas

Remote Rural Areas

115.7

84.5

60.8

40.9

50.8

26.7

11

661

10

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

HospitalHome / non-institutionCare homeOther institution

48%28%24%<1%

How does this compare to last year? Here is where deaths from all causes occurred in 2019:

Source: The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trendswww.nrscotland.gov.uk

SummaryThe Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends

Estimate Projection

Legalisationof abortion

Contraceptive pillavailable to singlewomen

EU expansionMay 2004

EU referendumJune 2016

Scotland’s population is at a record high

Scotland's population has increased for most of the last 200 years and now stands at 5.46 million in mid-2019.

Over the next 25 years to mid-2043, Scotland’spopulation is projected to increase but at a slower rate than seen in recent years.

People now live significantly longer than in the past, and have fewer children. So our population is getting older.

In mid-1911, only 1 in 20 people were aged 65+. This increased to nearly 1 in 5 in mid-2019 and is projected to increase to 1 in 4 in mid-2043.

Migration drives Scotland’s population growth

For most of the 20th Century, more people left Scotland than moved here.

That trend has now reversed, and migration is now the driver of population growth.

Scotland’s population is getting older

Number of people (millions)

High projection

Low projection

Principal projection

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1911 2019 2043

20 to 64

0 to 19

65 and over

20 to 64

0 to 19

65 and over

Percent of people in each age group

36.4

-5.6

-20.3

30.2

0

1959 1967 1974 2004 2019

Natural change(births minus deaths)

(IN minus OUT)Net migration

Number of people (thousands)

1.61

5.46

2.98

4.44

5.015.24

5.065.575.83

5.24

1801 1855 1900 1939 1974 2000 2019 2043

Census

Mid-yearestimates

Mid-yearprojections



Over the latest year to mid-2019, 8 council areas experienced a falling population (mostly island and rural areas, as well as areas in the west of Scotland). Although there are pockets of growth and population decline in every council area.

The level of population change varies across Scotland’s council areas

© Crown copyright and database right 2020.All rights reserved National Records of Scotland.Ordnance Survey Licence number: 100020542

Population change from mid-2018 to mid-2019

Population decline

Population growth below the Scottish average

Population growth above the Scottish average



In 2019 Scotland was home to around 388,000 non-British nationals

This was 7% of the Scottish population. About 60% were EU nationals and 40% were non-EU nationals.

There were around 36,000 more non-British nationals than in 2018; mainly from an increase in non-EU nationals.

Since 2008, fertility rates have been declining in all UK countries, with Scotland’s falling at the fastest rate.

The lowest total fertility rates were found in major cities.

People are increasingly living alone or in smaller households

This is partly due to the ageing population. Elderly people more often live alone or with one other person.

About 1 in 5 people live alone. That includes nearly 1 in 2 women aged 70+ and around 1 in 4 men aged 70+.

Scotland's total fertility rate is the lowest in the UK

Number of people by non-British nationality

Total Fertility Rate by UK country

Percentage of households by size

1 person2 people

3+ people

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1961 2002 2018Scotland's Census

Mid year estimates

Scotland

WalesEngland

N. Ireland

2.36

1.66

2.40

1.54

2.53

1.37

3.12

1.85

1971 2000 2019

EU8(134,000)

EU14(79,000)

EU2(19,000)

EU Other(1,000)

Rest ofWorld

(79,000)

Asia(69,000)

OtherEurope(6,000)

EUNon-

EU



Life expectancy in Scotland has increased but improvements have stalled in recent years

This stall is for a number of reasons including: slowing improvements in deaths from heart disease; more drug related deaths; and more deaths due to dementia. Our blog post explains this in more depth.

Since the beginning of the 1980s life expectancy at birth in Scotland has been lower than any other UK country.

It has also consistently been below almost all other Western European countries such as Ireland and France.

Deprivation greatly impacts life expectancy

Deprivation impacts life expectancy much more than the council area or health board you live in.

The gap between the most and least deprived areas was 13.3 years for males and 10.0 years for females.

Life expectancy at birth

Life expectancy at birth for different countriesLife expectancy in Scotland is lower than many other countries

Females Males

Females

Males

Life expectancy at birth by deprivation (SIMD decile)

69.1

77.1

75.3

81.1

1980-1982 2017-2019

Life expectancy began to stall in 2012-2014

69.7

82.7Leastdeprived

Mostdeprived

Males13.3 year

gap

75.7

85.3

Females10.0 year

gap

Leastdeprived

Mostdeprived

1980-1982 2017-2019 1980-1982 2017-201960

65

70

75

80

85

Eastern European countriesWestern European countriesUKScotland



https://blog.nrscotland.gov.uk/2019/07/18/why-is-life-expectancy-stalling-in-scotland/

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