the renewed alpine precipitation grid dataset · david masson, francesco isotta, christoph frei. 2...
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Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz
The renewed Alpine precipitation grid dataset
Developments and analyses
David Masson, Francesco Isotta, Christoph Frei
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Outline
I. Alpine precipitation grid dataset: current status
II. Towards a new method of spatial precipitation analysis
III. Preliminary considerations on interannual to decadal variations
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Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz
PART I:
Alpine precipitation grid dataset:
Current status
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Alpine precipitation station dataset
Domain: European Alps and adjacent flatland regions: 4.8-17.5E / 43-49N, (47.6N in France) Station data: seven countries, > 8500 time series in total, ~ 5500 measurements each day Period: 1971-2008Quality check: specific quality control procedure (for gross errors)
Stations in the dataset, height in meter
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Alpine precipitation station dataset
Grid: grid spacing 5x5 km (ETRS89-LAEA)Quantification of interpolation errors based on leave-one-out crossvalidation
Precipitation sum (mm), 17-19 July 1987
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Web site for data disseminationEURO4M Deliverable D1.1
Terms and conditions of use: Data access is subject of formal registrationand agreement of the conditions of use
www.meteoswiss.chSearch for «Alpine precipitation»
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Publication
The climate of daily precipitation in the Alps: development and analysis of a high-resolution grid dataset from pan-Alpine rain-
gauge data
Francesco A. Isotta,a Christoph Frei,a Viktor Weilguni,b Melita Perčec Tadić,c Pierre Lassègues,d Bruno Rudolf,e Valentina Pavan,f Carlo Cacciamani, f Gabriele Antolini,f Sara
M. Ratto,g Michela Munari,h Stefano Micheletti,i Veronica Bonati,j Cristian Lussana,kChristian Ronchi,l Elvio Panettieri,m Gianni Marigo,n Gregor Vertačnik, o
Submitted to the International Journal of Climatology, 4.4.2013
23-25 August 1987 (mm) 20-22 August 2005 (mm)
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Climatology of daily statistics
Statistical indices of daily precipitation, period 1971-2008(a) Frequency of wet days (≥ 1 mm, fraction), (b) mean precipitation on wet days (mm/day), (c) mean of annual maximum daily precipitation (mm/day), (d) fraction of precipitation from days with moderate to high intensity (≥ 75% percentile on wet-days, fraction).
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Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz
Part II:
Towards a new method of spatial precipitation analysis
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Motivation: Climatological precipitation (1971-2008)
(mm/day)Winter
• Complex Alpine topography
• Circulation regimes
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• Topographic dataset: Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)• Smoothing of the topography using Gaussian Kernel at various spatial scales• Use topographic height and gradient as precipitation predictor
Multi-scale precipitation ~ topography relationship
1km 25km 75km
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Geostrophic wind:
Interaction between winds and topography
Weather type CAP9-09-winter, 5km scale
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Circulation regimes ~ precipitation relationship
• Stratification of precipitation data using circulation regimes• Use of the CAP9 weather type classification (COST 733)• 9 weather types ˣ 4 seasons = 36 classes
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Interpolation of climatological precipitation
Which predictors are relevant for the interpolation?
Test of different models:•Topographical height only•Topographical height at 3 spatial scales (1km, 25km, 75km)•Topographical height and directional gradient at 3 spatial scales
•Stochastic interpolation (Kriging) vs. linear regression
Study over a quasi 2D cross-section of the Alps
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Topographical height only, linear regression(mm/day)
50km
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Topographical height at 3 spatial scales(mm/day)
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Topographical height and directional gradient at 3 spatial scales(mm/day)
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Ordinary kriging
• Stochastic prediction• No topographic predictors!• Weather type CAP9-9 winter• Climatological average
(mm/day)
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(mm/day)
KED with height and directional gradient at 3 spatial scales
• KED=Kriging with External Drift• Weather type CAP9-9 winter• Climatological average
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Performance for climatological map
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KED, 13.02.1990(mm/day)
Interpolation of daily precipitation
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Daily performance for an entire weather class
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Outlook
•Comparison with seasonal vs. weather type stratification
•Interpolation over the entire Alps
•Publication submission this summer
Conclusion
•Reliable interpolation at high altitudes requires a model of precipitation-height relationship
•Topographic height alone is a poor predictor for this relationship over mesoscale domains
•Improvement is obtained with:• additional predictors at coarser
space scales• predictors of slope along
prevailing wind direction
•KED with predictors from 3 scales and slope is the best interpolation method
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Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz
Part III:
Preliminary considerations on interannual to decadal variations
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Alpine Precip Trends (1971-2008)
wetter
dryer
Theil-Sen Slope (colour, end/beginning), Mann-Kendall Test (black contour α=5%)
„Raw“ Alpine Grid Dataset DJF
residual data errorsinhomogeneitiesSmall-scale noise network changes
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Alpine Precip Trends (1971-2008)
wetter
dryer
Theil-Sen Slope (colour, end/beginning), Mann-Kendall Test (black contour α=5%)
„Filtered“ Alpine Grid Dataset DJF
PCA-Filtering (Projection in Phasespace)Reduction in dimensionality from ~6000 stations to 15 PC-modesA robust basis for studying interannual variations
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Alpine Precip Trends (1971-2008)