the resource valuation and optimisation model: real impact...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model: Real Impact from Real Options
Geoff Evatt Paul Johnson, Peter Duck, Syd Howell & John Moriarty
School of Mathematics
The University of Manchester
Kindly supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, UK.
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Basic Mining Overview
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
Exploration
Planning
Extraction
Processing Sale
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Basic Mining Overview
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
Exploration
Planning
Extraction
Processing Sale
Geophysical Uncertainty
Price Uncertainty
Cost Uncertainty
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What is the RVOM?
The RVOM is a real options software package that optimises a projects decision making under future, uncertain, commodity prices
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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What is the RVOM?
The RVOM is a real options software package that optimises a projects decision making under future, uncertain, commodity prices.
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
RVOM outputs
Improved Valuation
Optimal Decisions
Decision
Probability Ore Reserve
Size
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Mining & Operational Decisions
*Moel and Tufano. When are Real Options Exercised? An Empirical Study of Mine Closings. 2002.
Out of 285 North American gold mines who operated during 1988 and 1997:
More mines closed due to economic deterioration than depleted their reserves*
30% of mines closed due to a fall in gold price* Of those that closed, at least 12% reopened when gold prices
rose again*
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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The RVOM ingredients
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
Real Options Analysis
Price Uncertainty
Operational Decisions
Extraction Plan
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Input: Extraction Schedule
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
Mine operator holds the options to Expand or Abandon
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Output: Valuation
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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Output: Optimal Decision
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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Output: Decision Probability
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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Output: Reserve Size Estimation
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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Advanced algorithms mean running times are fast Handle multiple ore prices Unlimited number of operational decisions Easily vary economic parameters Compatible with the Gemcom Whittle™
The RVOM Flexibility
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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The RVOM has risen out of other mathematically similar scientific investigations (Fluid Dynamics, Computational Finance & Optimal Stochastic Control)
Partial Differential Equations allow for fast computations, high accuracy and sensitivity analysis
Prices are modelled as stochastic diffusions (e.g. GBM, CIR) Broad team expertise ‘The Expected Lifetime of an Extraction Project’, Proceedings of
the Royal Society A, 2011
Underpinning Science
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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The Feynman-Kac Framework
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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The Feynman-Kac Framework
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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Mine Valuation
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
V=-C on S =S*, V=0 on t=T, V=0 on Q=0, V ~S as S ∞
dV/dS =0 on S=S*
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Output: Valuation
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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Output: Optimal Decision
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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Decision Probabilities
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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Output: Decision Probability
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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Mining Decisions & Connected Graphs
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
Normal Abandon
Normal XX $10m
Abandon XX XX
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Mining Decisions & Connected Graphs
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
Normal Abandon Expand
Normal XX $10m $15m
Abandon XX XX XX
Expand $5m $20m XX
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Mining Decisions & Connected Graphs
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
Normal Abandon Expand Mothball
Normal XX $10m $15m $10m
Abandon XX XX XX XX
Expand $5m $20m XX $10m
Mothball $5m $8m $10m XX
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Overlapping Domains
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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Hitting Probabilities with Hysteresis
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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Hitting Probabilities with Hysteresis
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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Hitting Probabilities and Volatility
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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Optimal Regulation
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
Objectives: Regulator wants to reduce the probably of a mining company
terminating an operation early (World Bank report, Otto 2010) The company wants to maximise their valuation
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Optimal Regulation
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
Objectives: Regulator wants to reduce the probably of a mining company
terminating an operation early (World Bank report, Otto 2010) The company wants to maximise their valuation
Controls: Regulator sets the size of the early termination fee The company controls when it abandons
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Optimal Regulation
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
Objectives: Regulator wants to reduce the probably of a mining company
terminating an operation early (World Bank report, Otto 2010) The company wants to maximise their valuation
Controls: Regulator sets the size of the early termination fee, K The company controls when it abandons, S*
V=-C -K on S =S*
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Optimal Regulation
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
Three point process to finding this Nash Equilibria 1. Impose a level of fine, and find corresponding optimal
company strategy 2. With this strategy, calculate the probability of entering the
undesirable state 3. If the probability meets the criteria, finish. If not, update
the value of fine, and return to 1.
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Optimal Regulation
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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The RVOM is an advanced Real Options software package Aids in mine scheduling, public reporting, risk analysis and
increasing profits
Summary
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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The RVOM is an advanced Real Options software package Aids in mine scheduling, public reporting, risk analysis and
increasing profits
Summary
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
Constructed of: Brennan & Schwartz (1985) Feynman-Kac formula Semi-Lagrangian numerical technique
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Evatt et.al. The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model: Real Impact from Real Options. Application of Computers in the Minerals Industry (APCOM). 2011.
Evatt et.al. The Expected Lifetime of an Extraction Project. Proceedings of the Royal Society A. 2011
Evatt at.al. Regulating Industries under Exogenous Uncertainty. In review 2011. (Google it and ‘Evatt’).
References
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software
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Thank you
The Resource Valuation and Optimisation Model. The University of Manchester & Gemcom Software