The Return of Goldilocks in: The Return of Goldilocks in: Civil WarCivil War

and the Three Regimes!and the Three Regimes!

By Jimmy RayBy Jimmy Ray

Once upon a time, Goldilocks asked her Once upon a time, Goldilocks asked her Three Bear friends, Three Bear friends, "Bear friends, what kind of political regime is "Bear friends, what kind of political regime is most likely to suffer from civil war?" most likely to suffer from civil war?"

"Not autocracies!" shouted Papa Bear. "Not autocracies!" shouted Papa Bear. "They're too hard!" "They're too hard!"

Goldilocks agreed, Goldilocks agreed, "Autocracies must repress civil war." "Autocracies must repress civil war."

"Well, not democracies "Well, not democracies either, dear," rejoined either, dear," rejoined Mama Bear. Mama Bear. "They're too soft." "They're too soft."

Again, Goldilocks Again, Goldilocks agreed, agreed, "Democracies can "Democracies can accommodate civil accommodate civil conflict peacefully." conflict peacefully."

"Civil wars are most likely in anocracies!" "Civil wars are most likely in anocracies!" exclaimed Baby Bear. "They're exclaimed Baby Bear. "They're justjust right!" right!"

"Yes," Goldilocks reasoned, "by default, civil "Yes," Goldilocks reasoned, "by default, civil war must be more likely in the middle." war must be more likely in the middle."

"Anocracy leads to "Anocracy leads to civil war," they said civil war," they said

all together. all together.

Late that night, while Late that night, while the Bears were the Bears were asleep, Goldilocks asleep, Goldilocks sneaked back into the sneaked back into the Bears' home with a Bears' home with a basket. True to her basket. True to her thieving nature, she thieving nature, she stole the Bears' data stole the Bears' data on political regimes on political regimes and took all of their and took all of their codebooks! codebooks!

Wherever she went, Wherever she went, Goldilocks spread her Goldilocks spread her message of anocracies message of anocracies and civil war. and civil war.

But one day, she came But one day, she came upon the Big Bad Wolf! upon the Big Bad Wolf!

The Big Bad Wolf asked, The Big Bad Wolf asked, "Whatcha got for me, li'l "Whatcha got for me, li'l girl?" girl?"

Goldilocks whimpered Goldilocks whimpered and finally whispered and finally whispered meekly, meekly, "I've got a correlation..." "I've got a correlation..."

"What's the correlation, Goldie?" said the "What's the correlation, Goldie?" said the Big Bad Wolf. Big Bad Wolf.

"Well," replied Goldilocks, "Civil war is most likely "Well," replied Goldilocks, "Civil war is most likely under anocratic political regimes." under anocratic political regimes."

Figure 1: The Inverted U-Shaped Story

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Dictatorship Anocracy Democracy

"Anocratic?! $&@#!?? "Anocratic?! $&@#!?? What the heck does anocratic mean?" growled the What the heck does anocratic mean?" growled the Big Bad Wolf.Big Bad Wolf.

"Aha!" blurted the Big Bad Wolf after a moment. "I found it!" "Aha!" blurted the Big Bad Wolf after a moment. "I found it!" "Here's what anocracies are..." "Here's what anocracies are..."

The Big Bad Wolf read aloud slowly, as if stunned by the words The Big Bad Wolf read aloud slowly, as if stunned by the words in the codebook. in the codebook.

"Anocracies are countries that are suffering from political "Anocracies are countries that are suffering from political violence or civil war..." violence or civil war..."

The Big Bad Wolf grew The Big Bad Wolf grew impatient!impatient!

He grabbed the basket from He grabbed the basket from Goldilocks and began to Goldilocks and began to devour the data and the devour the data and the pages of the codebook! pages of the codebook!

Goldilocks gasped! Goldilocks gasped!

And the Big Bad And the Big Bad Wolf snarled at her Wolf snarled at her with his big bad with his big bad teeth. teeth.

"Civil wars are "Civil wars are more likely where more likely where there is political there is political violence?!? %violence?!? %$&@?#$!! Isn't that $&@?#$!! Isn't that just a truism?" just a truism?"

““You better tell people to You better tell people to use a measure of use a measure of political regime that does political regime that does NOT mix in political NOT mix in political violence!" The Big Bad violence!" The Big Bad Wolf looked terribly Wolf looked terribly frightening as he frightening as he pronounced his pronounced his instructions. instructions.

"Well, I will spread the "Well, I will spread the message to all I meet," message to all I meet," Goldilocks announced. Goldilocks announced.

"And tell all you "And tell all you meet," added the meet," added the Big Bad Wolf, "if Big Bad Wolf, "if they use the mixed they use the mixed up measure, I'll find up measure, I'll find them and eat them them and eat them up!"up!"

Goldilocks was Goldilocks was persuaded. She never persuaded. She never used the mixed up used the mixed up data again to study data again to study civil war.civil war.

Goldilocks, the Big Goldilocks, the Big Bad Wolf, and the Bad Wolf, and the Three Bears all lived Three Bears all lived happily ever after. happily ever after.

And Goldilocks And Goldilocks spread the word. spread the word.

The End?The End?See: See:

http://www9.georgetown.edu/faculty/jrv24/goldindex.html#abovehttp://www9.georgetown.edu/faculty/jrv24/goldindex.html#above