the rise of the megalopolis · 2016-12-19 · the rise of the megalopolis. r.c. “rick” mobley,...

THE RISE OF THE MEGALOPOLISR.C. “RICK” MOBLEY, ASLA, AICP, FITE REGIONAL DIRECTOR OF TRANSPORTATION PLANNING AT RS&H

MEGALOPOLISA VERY LARGE, HEAVILY POPULATED CITY OR URBAN COMPLEX

Snapshot» Global Trends» US Trends

» Texas Trends» Demographic Trends» Questions and Discussions

GLOBAL TRENDS|POPULATION|URBANIZATION|

World Population Reached 7.3 Billion by Mid 2015Asia22%

Africa12%

Europe18%

Latin America and Caribbean

23%

North America and Oceania

25%

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects

World Population by Age Group» More than half of the population

is between the ages of 15 and 59 <15 yrs26%

15-59 yrs62%

>60 yrs12%


World Population by Year & Group» As the world population

increases, trends indicate the urban population will continue to increase, reaching over 6 billion by 2050

» The rural population peaks in 2030

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1.0

2.0

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10.0

11.0

World World Urban World Rural

POPU

LATI

ON

IN B

ILLI

ON

S

19501970199020302050


World Population by Group» Although the population

will continue to increase, data shows population growth has slowed since 1970 and will continue to slow until 2050

» Data shows the world rural population will experience a decline starting in 2030

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0%

100%

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400%

World World Urban World Rural

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1950-19701970-19901990-20142014-20302030-2050


World Population Average Annual Rate of Change by Group» World population

growth is slowing down190% 183%

129%

94%

63%

1950-1970 1970-1990 1990-2014 2014-2030 2030-2050


World Urban Population Average Annual Rate of Change by Group» World urban population

growth is slowing down 296%263%

221%

166%

113%

1950-1970 1970-1990 1990-2014 2014-2030 2030-2050


World Rural Population Average Annual Rate of Change by Group» World rural population

is declining137% 130%

43%

1%

-23%

1950-1970 1970-1990 1990-2014 2014-2030 2030-2050


UNITED STATES TRENDS|POPULATION|URBANIZATION|

US Population by Year» The US population is

increasing and will reach an estimated 389 Million by 2050

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100

150

200

250

300

350

400

United States

POPU

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19501970199020302050


US Population Density by Year» The US population

density will increase to an estimated 43 persons per square mile by 2050

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45.0

United States

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UARE

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19501970199020302050


Urbanization Trends» Urbanization in the

US is increasing

64%

36%

81%

19%

87%

13%

Urban Rural

1950 2014 2050


What is Urbanization?» The migration from rural areas to urban areas» Absolute growth in the urban area (urban growth)» Urban growth that is faster than rural growth

Source: US Census Bureau

What is an Urban Area?» The US Census Bureau identifies two types of urban areas

1. Urban Cluster: Densely settled territory with 2,500-50,000 inhabitants

2. Urbanized Area: Densely settled territory with 50,000 inhabitants or more

Source: US Census Bureau

Source: Herald Sun | Melbourne, Australia

Are we thinking about this all wrong ??» “We think urban planning ..focuses on making dense cities denser,

where the minority of the worlds population wants to live”– Alan Berger MIT

» “only one in eight urban dwellers worldwide live in dense mega cities”– United Nations report

» “we're looking and focusing on cities….take all the cities in the world, you could fill up India. My question is, what about the rest ?

– Pierre Belanger – Harvard Graduate School of Design

Where Most of Humanity Lives: Half lives in the black space and the other half in the yellow

Produced by data-viz blogger Max Galka, this map was generated using statistics compiled by a NASA research unit.

The Emerging Megaregions

Urbanized Areas & Urban Clusters

Source: US Census Bureau – 2010 Census Urban Area Delineation Program

Ten Most Populous Urbanized Areas

Source: US Census Bureau – 2010 Census Urban Area Delineation Program

The Five States with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2014 to July 1, 2015

107,185

117,728

352,527

365,703

490,036

Washington

Georgia

California

Florida

Texas

Source: US Census Bureau – News Release , Number: CB16-43 | December 22, 2015

TEXAS TRENDS|POPULATION|URBANIZATION|

Texas in 2010

» Houston» DFW» San Antonio» Austin

Texas Population Projections by Year» Projections indicate the

population in Texas will reach 40.5 Million by 2050

28.80

40.50

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10

20

30

40

50

Texas

POPU

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IN M

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2020203020402050

Source: US Census Bureau – Texas Population Projections, 2010 to 2050

Projected Percent Change from 2010» 61% increase in

population from 2010 to 2050

14.59

29.96

45.36

61.07

2010-2020 2010-2030 2010-2040 2010-2050

PERC

ENT

CHAN

GE (%

)


Four Texas Metro Areas Collectively Add More than 400,000 People in the Last Year – Census Bureau Reports


Projected Geographic Distribution of the Population

» Growth in the majority of Texas counties

» Especially in suburban counties that surround large urban centers AND counties along the southern border


Percent population change in Texas counties, 2010 to 20500.5 migration scenario

The New Suburbia» Flexible densities» Mix of uses. Live, work, play.» Self Contained» Connections to Center City» Affordable

Formation of Megalopolises» As urbanized areas expand and

urban clusters increase, they begin to merge with each other to create a megalopolis

Megalopolises of the future

Source: Future of Suburbia | MIT Center for Advanced Urbanism

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS|POPULATION|URBANIZATION|

Demographic Changes» Older population

» Young professionals

» Empty nesters

» Solopreneurs

» Cultural diversity

» Demand for modal choices

New Millennial Mindset» Generation’s homebuyers are drawn

to suburbs with aspects of city living» 35% of the homebuyers are

millennials» Cost and proximity to work are factors» 17% of home purchases are located

within an urban area or central city» National Association of Realtors found

more than ½ of millennials buying houses are choosing the suburbs

Source: Houston Chronicle | Tuesday March 29, 2016

Changes in Development Patterns» Re-densification» Livable centers

» Mixed uses» Refocus on transit» Walkable, bikeable communities

Denser Urban Environments» Lower auto ownership

» Higher transit ridership

» Mixed uses for live/work/play environments

» More multi-modal opportunities

» Escapees from the city

Denser Urban Environments

Denser Sub-Urban Environments» Homebuyers move farther from city

center amid rising home prices» In Austin, the median home sold in

2011 was 13.2 miles from the city center, and 14.8 miles in 2015

» In Houston, the median home sold in 2015 was 20.6 miles from the urban core, increasing 5.6% since 2011

» National median price per square foot in 2015 was $284 in urban centers vs. $148 in non-urban centers

Source: Austin Business Journal| Friday March 25, 2016

Different Work Environments» Satellite offices» Work form home» Virtual offices

» Shared work spaces» Community work spaces

(collaboration spaces)

Different Retail Experiences» Big – Boxalypse» Corner stores and

support retail» Show rooms» On line shopping» Front door delivery

So How Do We Respond ?» Take advantage of technology and implement TDM and TSM

techniques across all modes» Emphasize Shared Use Facilities (roads, sidewalks, parking)» Take advantage of transit development and become more

multi-modal in approach to solutions» Recognize needs of different users and respond appropriately

in providing transportation solutions

So the theory is…» Urbanization will continue with a mix of users in the center cities and highly

urbanized areas including boomers, genX and Y’ers as well as millennials.» The phenomena of escapees and soltrepenures will continue as the population ages.» Suburbanization will continue – but it must take on a new form – not just the typical

bedroom community.» As suburban centers become more self contained the city center and traditional core

will have less importance, except for major cultural activities and sporting events.» Transportation as we know it will change. Less need to connect to city center. More

needs internally for the new suburbia. New interconnections with multi node cities as well as between cities.

» The Megalopolis will be our future. We must change our thinking about transportation out to the new horizon years of 2050 and beyond.

QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION

Community Evolution» Early circulation concepts

– Historical circulation systems– American circulation systems

» Community pattern– Early forms– Mass transportation– Automotive transportation– Community shape– Future patterns

Community Evolution (cont’d.)» Growth trends

– Population trends– Employment distribution– Travel trends

Estimated Vehicle Miles Driven on All Roads

Estimated Vehicle Miles Driven and Gasoline Prices

Human Mobility» People and goods» Auto» Truck» Rail» Air

the rise of the megalopolis · 2016-12-19 · the rise of the megalopolis. r.c. “rick” mobley,...

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