THE RISE OF THE NEW LEFT

READING

• Smith, Democracy, chs. 11-12

• Cleary, “The Rise of the Left” (Course Reader #4)

• Modern Latin America, ch. 8 (Venezuela)

9/11, THE WAR ON TERROR, AND RULES OF THE GAME

1. Nations can respond however they choose—including the use of indiscriminate force.

2. Preventive action is appropriate and acceptable.

3. There is no need to adhere to international treaties or conventions.

4. Alliances are formed around one central issue—the anti-terror campaign. Democracy and human rights are secondary issues.

5. Spectator nations must tread cautiously.

GWB AND LATIN AMERICA

1. Lack of high-level attention

2. Abandonment of negotiations with Mexico for immigration reform

3. Overriding concern with support for anti-terrorist campaign (not democracy)

4. Hubs, spokes, and FTAs

5. Politicization of drug war

6. Awaiting Fidel’s demise

7. Opposition to Chávez and the Pink Tide

RECENT TRENDSIN LATIN AMERICA

• Surge of leftist movements

• Left = social justice, Right = individual freedom

• Electoral victories, despite institutional obstacles

• Result: democracy as a protective shield

THE PINK TIDE: ORIGINS

• Economic—lack of growth (through 2003), poverty and inequality, frustration with Washington Consensus

• Political—weakness of representative institutions, inattention to poor, persistence of corruption

• International—war in Iraq, opposition to Bush policies and growing distaste for American society

THE PINK TIDE: MEMBERSHIP• Hugo Chávez, Venezuela (1998, 2004, 2006)• Lula, Brazil (2002, 2006)• Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Fernández, Argentina (2003, 2007)• Evo Morales, Bolivia (2005, 2009)• Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua (2006)• Rafael Correa, Ecuador (2006)• Fernando Lugo, Paraguay (2008)• Mauricio Funes, El Salvador (2009)• José Mújica, Uruguay (2009)

Near-Misses:• Ollanta Humala, Peru (2006)• Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico (2006)

CLARIFICATIONS #1

• Differentiation: right/center/left

• Contending leaders in/for Latin America:

– Felipe Calderón? (Mexico)– Lula (Brazil)– Hugo Chávez (Venezuela)

CLARIFICATIONS #2

• Disenchanted masses in Latin America ≠• Voters for pink tide candidates ≠• Leftist candidates for office ≠• Leftist winners of presidential elections ≠• Pro-Chávez chief executives ≠• Hugo Chávez• Notes:

– Tidal swell is spontaneous, not organized

– Rivalries and defections

THE PINK TIDE: GOALS

• Domestic—winning power, rearranging electoral alignments; overturning status quo, possibly through institutional reform; changing policy direction

• Hemispheric—gaining support throughout Latin America (invoking “Bolivarian dream”), reducing U.S. hegemony

• Global—challenging international order, forging alliances with developing world and non-aligned nations

GWB AND THE PINK TIDE

• Strategy of “inoculation”• Circumvention through FTAs • Cultivation (and cooptation?) of Lula• The presidential tour (March 2007):

– Carefully selected sites—Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Guatemala, Mexico

– Rhetoric of social concern– Only deliverable: ethanol agreement– The Chávez “counter-tour”

RISE OF HUGO CHÁVEZ• 1989: Caracazo• 1992: Failed military coup (amnesty 1994)• 1998: Wins presidential election• 1999: Installs new constitution• 2002: Survives attempted coup• 2004: Attains support in referendum• 2006: Wins second presidential term• 2007: Declines renewal of RCTV license• 2007: Constitutional referendum fails• 2008: Oil climbs to >$100 per barrel• 2008: Referendum succeeds

THE PROBLEM WITH HUGO

• Uses language of the street (including the Arab street)—e.g., the “devil” speech

• Sits atop petroleum (now >$100 per barrel)• Puts money where his mouth is• Breaks established rules of the game• Plays off resentment of Bush, U.S. power• Challenges Washington Consensus and FTAA• Goes for high stakes• Seeks rearrangement of prevailing world order

JORGE AND HUGO: THE ODD COUPLE

George’s “gifts” to Hugo:– discourse on democracy (e.g., Second Inaugural)– caricature of “ugly American”– unpopularity of foreign policies– inattention to Latin America

And Hugo’s reciprocation:– exaggerated rhetoric– potential threats to neighboring countries– authoritarian tendencies

Q1: What does Hugo do without George? Q2: What about the price of oil?

THE BOLIVARIAN REVOLUTION

• Domestic agenda:– Strengthening state– Redistributing wealth– Monopolizing power

• Global agenda:– Opposing U.S. hegemony– Building continental solidarity– Becoming leader of developing world– Consolidating oil-producing alliances

INTERNAL WEAKNESSES

• Judiciary, rule of law and “due process”• Absence of representative institutions—e.g., courts,

legislature, unions• Concentration of presidential power• Chávez’s own charisma• Economic inefficiencies

• NB: defeat in November ’07 referendum, victory the following year

CURRENT ISSUES• Leadership:

– Tightening circle of advisers– Accusations of corruption

• Economic performance:– Rationing of water and electricity– Attempted price controls

• Foreign policy:– Threats of war with Colombia– Rise of Lula and Brazil

• Curtailing opposition:– Redistricting for September election of National Assembly– Shutdown of RCTV International

THE PULSE OF POLITICAL CHANGE

• The Nineties:– Elected governments– Washington Consensus, free trade, and FTAs with U.S.– Weak states– Illiberal regimes– Result: timid democracies

• The New Century:– Popular disenchantment, especially over inequality– Rejection of Washington Consensus– Restoration of state role– Inclusive politics (in part)– Result: the new left (aka “pink tide”)

CHALLENGING AMERICAN MYTHS

• The Cherished Assumption—freely elected leaders will support U.S. policy

• The Western Hemisphere idea—the new world is distinct from old, will forge common front in international arena

• Democracy rationale for “regime change”—free elections as protective shield

• The hegemonic presumption—the United States can dictate political life in Latin America

VISIONS FOR LATIN AMERICA:GWB AND USA

• Democratic—with tilt to right or center-right

• Prosperous—with commitment to free-market policies and ties to United States

• Unified—under U.S. leadership

• Peaceful—in view of unanimity

• Deferential—following U.S. lead in global arena

REALITY CHECK

• Democracy = broad ideological spectrum, from “left” to “right”

• Prosperity = mixed economies; rejection of Washington Consensus, FTAs, and FTAA

• Ideology = diversity rather than unity• Outlooks = anti-U.S. attitudes strong and

growing among large share of population• Alliances = rejection of U.S. leadership and

rules of the game