the rise of the sustainable culture from the ashes of the oil empire dr. susan krumdieck nz esr...
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The rise of the The rise of the Sustainable CultureSustainable Culture from from
the the Ashes of the Oil EmpireAshes of the Oil Empire
Dr. Susan KrumdieckDr. Susan Krumdieck
NZ ESR Conference 2004NZ ESR Conference 2004
A Long Time Ago…A Long Time Ago…
Whales started to get scarce and,
behold,
the ground in Oklahoma spouted forth oil
And there was light,
and the light grew
And the Oil Empire was born…And the Oil Empire was born…
""supply creates demand supply creates demand ""
Jean Baptiste SayJean Baptiste Say (1767-1832) (1767-1832)
And so the people prospered…And so the people prospered…
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50Global Annual Hydrocarbon Production
Fossil Fuel
Water
Minerals
And technology could accomplish And technology could accomplish anything…anything…
Everything will be alright, as long as we form a federation and find the infinite energy source
Dilithium Crystals
And sometimes when they thought And sometimes when they thought about the future….about the future….
It seemed like things were getting It seemed like things were getting out of controlout of control
“Sometime in the 23rd century...the survivors of war, overpopulation and pollution are living in a great domed city, sealed away from the forgotten world outside, controlled by a powerful computer”
““Without vision the people perish…”Without vision the people perish…”
““What we see is not the What we see is not the old city being old city being resurrected. It's resurrected. It's something new that something new that will be born out of the will be born out of the ashes of the old...." ashes of the old...."
But nice, smart people were working on But nice, smart people were working on answersanswers
(J. Rifkin)
We need cheap, plentiful energyWe need cheap, plentiful energy Demand is projected to grow by 40%Demand is projected to grow by 40% We need more energy for economic growthWe need more energy for economic growth We will require new productionWe will require new production Clean coalClean coal
But the answers didn’t seem to be But the answers didn’t seem to be answers answers
And many were troubled…And many were troubled…
Righteous warnings of impending disasterRighteous warnings of impending disaster
Denial – Forward self-projectionDenial – Forward self-projection
Blame – Find those at faultBlame – Find those at fault
Fatalistic Acceptance – TragedyFatalistic Acceptance – Tragedy
And they dreamed of the future of the And they dreamed of the future of the Oil Empire becoming the Oil Empire becoming the
Hydrogen EconomyHydrogen Economy
Now a new age dawnsNow a new age dawns
Unconstrained Supply
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 20500
10
20
30
40
50Constrained Supply
Global Annual Hydrocarbon Production
Total Hydrocarbons (after Campbell, 2001 model)
Continuity TheoryContinuity Theory
+
-
Quality Economy TechnologySustainableFactors
Change Factors
Regulation Trade Innovation
Performance
Impacts
Nature
Continuity Model
Sustainable Energy ArchitectureSustainable Energy Architecture
Form and Function
Service within the limits of material budget and requirements of structural robustness
Beauty and Expression
Advanced Energy and Material Advanced Energy and Material Systems LaboratorySystems Laboratory
Interdisciplinary research effort to
develop the theory, models, information,
ideas, technology and planning tools
for New Zealand to begin the journey
toward a Sustainable Civilization.
Research DirectivesResearch Directives
Continuity Theory development and Continuity Theory development and application application
Continuity Model developmentContinuity Model developmentStrategic Analysis for particular problems Strategic Analysis for particular problems
and issues and issues
Strategic scenario developmentStrategic scenario developmentNew Technology opportunity realizationNew Technology opportunity realization
Strategic AnalysisStrategic Analysis
Christchurch: Energy analysis for home Christchurch: Energy analysis for home heating and air pollution – 5 year scenarioheating and air pollution – 5 year scenario
Tristan Wallbank 2002Tristan Wallbank 2002Final Year Project Team 2004Final Year Project Team 2004
PetroChina: Transportation Energy PetroChina: Transportation Energy
Scenario and Technology ReviewScenario and Technology ReviewAndre Dantas, T. Burton, E. Wang, S. Minges 2003Andre Dantas, T. Burton, E. Wang, S. Minges 2003
Transportation and Electric Grid ScenarioTransportation and Electric Grid ScenarioFinal Year Project Team 2004Final Year Project Team 2004
Energy ArchitectureEnergy Architecture
Sustainable Energy Constrained TransportSustainable Energy Constrained Transport
Christchurch Christchurch Silke Leitermann 2003Silke Leitermann 2003Michael Saunders, Masters Student 2004Michael Saunders, Masters Student 2004