the road to 2030 - steps...2016/10/05 · the road to 2030: us energy picture california governor...
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The Road to 2030
U.C. Davis STEPS Symposium May 12, 2015
Achieving Targets Through 2030
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President Barack Obama December 20, 2013
“For the first time in nearly two decades, we now produce more oil here at home than we buy from the rest of the world, and our all-of-the-above strategy for new American energy means lower energy costs.”
2 Western States Petroleum Association // wspa.org // @ wspaprez
The Road to 2030: US Energy Picture
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3 Western States Petroleum Association // wspa.org // @ wspaprez
Cap & Trade
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels Supply, 1970 - 2040
The Road to 2030: US Energy Picture
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4 Western States Petroleum Association // wspa.org // @ wspaprez
Cap & Trade
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
The Road to 2030: US Energy Picture
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California Governor Jerry Brown March 15, 2013
“The fossil fuel deposits in California
are incredible.”
5 Western States Petroleum Association // wspa.org // @ wspaprez
The Road to 2030: CA Energy Picture
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6 Western States Petroleum Association // wspa.org // @ wspaprez
The Road to 2030: CA Energy Picture
Cap & Trade 51%
11%
38%
Alaska
California
Source: California Energy Commission
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Sources Of Imported Foreign Oil Into California
7 Western States Petroleum Association // wspa.org // @ wspaprez
The Road to 2030: CA Energy Picture
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According to the Integrated Energy Policy Report, California is the third largest fuel consuming entity on earth, behind the US as a whole and all of China
92% of California’s transportation fuels are petroleum-based
8 Western States Petroleum Association // wspa.org // @ wspaprez
The Road to 2030: Fuel Facts
US California
Crude Oil Refined 16 million/day 1.6 million/day (barrels) Gasoline Refined 374 million/day 43 million/day (gallons) Diesel Refined 168 million/day 16 million/day (gallons)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; California Energy Commission
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9 Western States Petroleum Association // wspa.org // @ wspaprez
The Road to 2030: LCFS
1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
7.5%
?
Percent CI Reduction
1%
5%
10%
3.5%
2%
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10 Western States Petroleum Association // wspa.org // @ wspaprez
The Road to 2030: SB 350 Fuel Supply
2010 2030 2015 2020 2025
Petroleum Transportation Fuels
Other
Petroleum Transportation Fuels
Other ?
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11 Western States Petroleum Association // wspa.org // @ wspaprez
The Road to 2030: Electric Vehicles
Number of light duty vehicles: 26 million
Governor’s 2025 goal: 1.5 million
Number of electric vehicles in California today: 120,000
Source: California Energy Commission, Draft California Integrated Energy Policy Report, November 2014; California Air Resources Board
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12 Western States Petroleum Association // wspa.org // @ wspaprez
The Road to 2030: VMT
“Industry analysts have predicted that road pricing will be among the most effective strategies in reducing VMT and GHG emissions.
A forecast based on the CSTDM seemed to confirm this assumption, where the 73 percent increase on the cost of driving translated into a 17 percent reduction in VMT.”
California Transportation Plan 2040
Source: California Department of Transportation, California Transportation Plan, Draft, March 2015
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13 Western States Petroleum Association // wspa.org // @ wspaprez
The Road to 2030: Cap & Trade
Source: California Air Resources Board, First Update to the Climate Change Scoping Plan, May 2014
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14 Western States Petroleum Association // wspa.org // @ wspaprez
The Road to 2030: Cap & Trade “The Cap-and-Trade Program is a vital component in achieving both California’s near-and long-term GHG emissions targets. California’s Cap-and-Trade Regulation is purposely designed to leverage the power of the market in pursuit of an environmental goal. It opens the door for major investment in emission-reducing technologies and sends a clear economic signal that these investments will be rewarded.”