the road to the white house : strategies and outcomes in the 1960 and 2000 presidential campaigns...
TRANSCRIPT
The Road to the White House : Strategies and Outcomes in the
1960 and 2000 Presidential Campaigns
Joseph Hollis
For Prof. Jeremy Lewis
Capstone 499 : A final Tribute to the Lewis School of Government
Road to the White House: Intro
Basic Strategies of the Presidential Campaign
1960, 2000 campaign overviews
-candidates, organizations
-candidate strategies
-outcomes
Comparisons and Conclusions
Broad Strategies of the Presidential Campaign
• Create a Leadership Image• Building a Winning Geographic Coalition• The Incumbency Factor• Basic Common Appeal• Reaching Voters• Targeting Messages• Timing Appeals• Turning out the Voters
Candidates in 1960 Campaign: John F. Kennedy v. Richard Nixon
• Kennedy Background• Nixon Background
• Vice-Presidents – Strategically beneficial
or not?
1960: Kennedy Strategies (Theodore White,
Making of the President)
• Focus on 9 large states (New York, Pennsylvania, California, Michigan, Texas, Illinois, Ohio, New Jersey, Massachusetts)
• Accentuating Kennedy’s Image• Building a Leadership Image• Discredit the Eisenhower Admin/ make appeal to the
public• Brain Trust for ideas (Harvard Professors
– Would use data in Rhetoric and Speeches – wanted to be informed on National Policy
– Civil Rights Strategy– Overall Campaign Strategy – Full Speed, all the
time – almost recklessly
1960: Nixon Strategies (Theodore White,
Making of the President)
-Accentuate his National Image“Leh Hall - Jim Shapley” Strategy
-Peace and Prosperity Campaign
Farm and Catholic voteFolksy AppealPlans BoardPledge to Campaign 50 StatesThree Week BlitzThe Eisenhower Factor
1960: The Strategic Role of Media in a Presidential Campaign
• First time for everything• Candidate preparation – internal and external
factors• Appearance is Key• Outcome of the Presidential Debates
– 57 percent of those who voted believed that TV debates influenced their decisions……….6 percent, or over 4,000,000 voters, said their final decision was on the debates alone…..
– Of the 4,000,000, 72% for Kennedy, and 26% for Nixon– (GALLUP POLLING, 1960)
Electoral College: 1960
• John F. Kennedy – 303 (34,221,349)
• Richard M. Nixon – 219 (34,108, 647)
• Harry F. Byrd - 15
Candidates in the 2000 Campaign: George W. Bush, Al Gore
• Gore Background• Bush Background
• Running Mates??
Homogeneous, or not?
Gore Campaign Organization: 2000
• No Centralized Structure
• Too many staffers with too much input
• Campaign team internal problems– Bush +17 in approval
rating at one point in time
– Debates
Gore 2000 Strategies
• Campaign Intensely• Initial “Attack Strategy” (would backfire)• “Peace and Prosperity” trip• Use the debates for advantage• “Own man” (Leadership appeal, basic)• Issue stances (refer to handouts)• Reproductive Choice• What to do with Clinton?
Bush 2000 Strategies
• Neglect the issues that divided Republicans, pitted stark ideological differences to Dems
• Outsider of Washington: “Rhetoric of Uniting”
“Compassionate Conservatism”
• Moral Presidential Leadership
• Geographically – California emphasis
2000: Electoral Outcomes (1)
Bush had safe states
Gore safe states?
Florida Recount
Supreme Court decides President of the United States, split along ideological (partisan – lines)
2000: Role of Media in the Modern Presidential Campaign
• Media has an intense impact on the Presidential Campaign
• Much of the campaign is dedicated to Media-related activities, and over half is spent on the budget
• Candidate will orchestrate campaign for the news media
• Hopefuls do everything to prevent embarrassment on television
2000: Role of Media in the Modern Presidential Campaign Continued (2)
• MEDIA ADVERTISING– Consultants, and professional supplement the
campaign staff (design, produce advertisements as well as buy time on different stations)
– GORE : Washington Based Public Relations Firm
– BUSH : Stuart Stevens, New York Filmmaker, Mark McKinnon, Texas Media Consultant
– TARGETING!
2000: Role of Media in the Modern Presidential Campaign Continued (3) Televised Debate
• Expectations beforehand
• Outcomes of Debates• Poll Data