The role of assumptions

Critical Assumptions

• Define the systems environment and sustainability issues• Factors which the project cannot control• Outside the scope of intervention• Essential to projects success• Results-to-purpose assumptions are the critical success

factors

Beware of “Killer” assumptions!!

Assumptions

Redesign project, reformulate project proposal

Is the external factor important?

Yes No

Do not include in plan

Do not include in plan

Include as an assumption

Is it possible to redesign or Influence?

No

Plan, strategy, project notfeasible

Yes

Will it be realised?

Almost certainly

Most likely

Unlikely

Sustainability

“A project is said to be sustainable when it continues todeliver benefits to the project beneficiaries for anextended period after the main part of the donorassistance has been completed.”

Sustainability

Key factors;

• Policy support• Appropriate technology• Institutional and management capacity• Economic and financial viability• Socio-cultural and gender issues• Environmental protection

These factors are assessed in terms of their probability andsignificance in the same way as external factors using thealgorithm.

Sustainability

Sustainability starts with project programme design, forexample;

A project to improve peoples lives through increased foodproduction via irrigation and use of pesticides.

Will not be sustainable if water is extracted faster thanreplenished, or if increased food production is made at theexpense of pesticides in the drinking water supply.

Such a project will not be sustainable even if the increasedfood production is attained.

Objectively Verifiable Indicators (OVI)

OVI describe the project’s objectives in operationallymeasurable terms & provide the basis for performancemeasurement.

The specification of OVI act as a check on viability of objectivesand form the basis of the project monitoring system.

Objectively Verifiable Indicators means that different peopleusing the same indicators would obtain the samemeasurements.

Ensuring OVI’s are specific

Objective: Health status improved

Set Quality (nature of indicator) mortality rates reduced

Set Target Group (who) infant mortality rates reduced

Set place (where) infant mortality rates reduced in north-westprovince.

Set Quantity: infant mortality rates reduced in north-west provincefrom X to Y.

Set Time: infant mortality rates reduced in north-west province from Xto Y by the year 2015.

Sources of Verification (SOV)

When indicators are formulated the source of information andmeans of collection should be specified. This will help to testwhether or not the indicators can be realistically measured atthe expense of time, money and effort.

SOV should specify;

• The format information should be made available (e.g. progress reports, project accounts, project records, official statistics etc.

• Who should provide the information• How regularly it should be provided

Selecting sources of verification

Cos

t

Complexity

Administrative records

Management reports

Routine statistics

Adapted statistics

Beneficiary interviews

Specific sample surveys

Means and Costs

“Means” are the human, material and financial resourcesrequired to undertake the planned activity and manage theproject.

To provide an accurate estimate of the means and costsrequired for a project, planned activities and managementsupport activities need to be specified in detail.

One area of particular attention is the cost of collecting data onOVIs.

The Logframe an Example

A completed Logframe for our example project; points to note;

• Formulation of the three elements of the project purpose “Rates of infection in babies reduced”, “Reduced rate of birth problems” and “Rates of infection in infants reduced” into a single statement.

• The inclusion of assumptions on nutrition to be dealt with by another project.

• Building capacity through training staff in data collection and evaluation

• Inclusion of pre-conditions which must be met before funding approved

A presentation tool

The completed Logframe provides a concise summary of theproject, its objectives, indicators and sources of information bywhich progress will be measured, key risks and assumptionswhich may affect achievement of objectives.

The logframe will be appended to a comprehensive project planwhich will explain in detail how it will be implemented.

Intervention logic Objectively Verifiable Indicators Sources of Validation Assumptions

Overall Objective

Activities

Results

Project Purpose

Infant & maternal mortality rates reduced

Mortality rates reduced for under 1s, under 5s & mothers from X to Y by 2015

Dept of Health stats analysed, ex-ante, mid term, ex-post

Health status of pregnant and nursing mothers, babies & infants improved

Incidence of infection in health centres reduced from X to Y by X

Rates of diseases in under 5s reduced from X to Y by 2015

Birth problems reduced from X to Y by wwww

Hospital records analysed ex-ante, mid term, ex-post

Sample survey of target group in years 1,3, 5

Incidence of infectious diseases in the household reduced

1. Functioning primary healthcare service established at district level

2. Quality & Efficiency of secondary healthcare improved

Number of PHC services up from X to Y by xyz

Number of under 5s vaccinated increased from X to Y by xyz

Clinical attendance records analysed quarterly

Vaccination records analysed quarterly

Mothers willing to attend clinics

Household nutrition improves through availability of high protein foods

Number of Patients treated up from X to Y by xyz

Hospital records analysed quarterly

1. Replace mobile clinics

2.Recruit and train village birth attendants

3. Design and implement new procedures for ….

Technical assistance

Equipment

Medical supplies

(See activity schedule)

Lump sum costs Reimbursables

(See Budget)

Dept of Health maintains level of funding at pre project levels in real terms

Pre-condition

Dept of Health implements strategy of …….

Summary

To properly assess the real needs of beneficiaries and to take

account of differing views of different stakeholders it is important

to bring together stakeholders at the Analysis phase.

A Gender integrated approach is necessary to ensure that

project design is consistent with differing roles of men and

women.

Summary

The main output of the LFA is the logframe matrix.

The Logframe is not a comprehensive tool and does not

guarantee project success. All to often the “fill-in-the boxes”

approach is used to complete the logframe matrix during project

design, leading to poorly prepared projects with unclear

objectives and a lack of ownership by stakeholders.

Summary

It is essential to ensure that the levels of objectives are correct.

• Overall Objectives – the wider sectoral or national programme objectives to which the project is designed to contribute.

• Project Purpose – the sustainable benefits to be delivered to

project beneficiaries, institution or system.

• Results – the services to be provided by the project

• Activities – how the projects goods and services will be delivered

Summary

External factors which will affect the projects implementationand long-term sustainability but which lie outside the projectscontrol are included as assumptions.

The probability and significance of these assumptions being metshould be estimated as part of assessing the riskiness of theproject.

Long-term sustainability depends on factors such as, policysupport, technology, institutional and management capacity,economic and financial viability, gender, social-cultural andenvironmental protection.

Summary

The role of Objectively Verifiable Indicators is to describethe overall objective (s), project purpose and results in operationally measurable terms.

The significance of OVIs acts as a check on the viability ofobjectives and forms the basis of the project monitoringsystem.