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The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior and implications for transport modeling Theo Arentze Urban Planning Group Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands

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Page 1: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

The role of bounded rationality in travel

choice behavior and implications for

transport modeling

Theo Arentze

Urban Planning Group

Eindhoven University of Technology,

The Netherlands

Page 2: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Outline

• Activity-based transport models

• Why activity-based and what does it involve?

• New developments in research

• Aspects of bounded rationality

• Examples of exploring new area

1. Effect of memory and emotion on learning and

satisfaction

2. Individuals’ mental representations of complex choice

problems

3. Group decision making and joint activity choice

Page 3: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Travel demand models

Micro simulation models

Activity-based

models

Tour-based

models

Daily activity-patterns

Trip records

OD trip matrix

Dynamic/static traffic simulation/assignment models

Predicting people’s

response to policies is

notoriously difficult

Aggregate trip-based

models

Page 4: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Travel demand models

Micro simulation models

Activity-based

models

Tour-based

models

Daily activity-patterns

Trip records

OD trip matrix

Dynamic/static traffic simulation/assignment models

Models are now

making the transition

to practice

New model

development started in

early nineties

Aggregate trip-based

models

Page 5: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Why activity-based modeling?

• New demands from transport planning and policy making

• Switch in focus to travel demand measures

• Importance of temporal factors (flexible work hours) and task combination

• Integration of policies: land-use and transport planning

• More comprehensive evaluation of policies

Page 6: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Activity-based versus trip-based approach

Trip-based Activity-based

Focus is on trips Focus is on activities

Unit is a trip Unit is a day

Space-time constraints ignored Space-time constraints taken

into account

Low resolution time and place High resolution time and place

Decision unit is individual Decision unit is household

Predicts when, where, transport

mode

Predicts which activities, when,

where, for how long, trip-

chaining and transport mode

Page 7: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

New developments in transportation research

• From static to dynamic models

• expand time frame from one day to multiple days

• include life trajectories and long-term mobility

decisions

• Include social networks and social interactions

• social influence in decision making

• group decision making – negotiation

• New survey methods and data sources

• tracking of movements with GPS or mobile phone

positioning

• social media – big data

Page 8: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

New survey methods

Traditional – diary data New – GPS tracking

One or two days data Longer time frame – week or

multiple weeks

Location identification is

difficult and imprecise

Location identification is

automated and precise

No recording of travelled routes Recording of travelled routes

User unaided in memorizing of

activities and modes

Automated interpretation +

prompted recall

Page 9: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Aspects of bounded rationality

Habitual life Learning & judgment

Choice Evaluation & decision

Exploration Search & info acquisition

Needs and resources

- ICT tools - Social network

- Mobility means - Budgets

Environment - Social - Physical - ICT

- Institutional - Prices - Technological

Adaptation Activity and mobility patterns & perceived wellbeing

Rational beliefs

versus

Heuristics and

memory bias

No search costs

versus

Sequential search and

satisficing behavior

Absolute utility values

versus

Reference-based utilities and

emotional weighting

Decision utility

versus

Experienced utility

Independent decisions

versus

Social influence and

group decision making

Page 10: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Aspects of bounded rationality

Habitual life Learning & judgment

Choice Evaluation & decision

Exploration Search & info acquisition

Needs and resources

- ICT tools - Social network

- Mobility means - Budgets

Environment - Social - Physical - ICT

- Institutional - Prices - Technological

Adaptation Activity and mobility patterns & perceived wellbeing

Accounting for bounded rationality requires a change from

static to dynamic modeling

Page 11: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Time is ripe

• Cumulative evidence from psychology and

behavioral economics

• See recent book of Daniel Kahneman (2011) – Thinking,

Fast and Slow

• Human biases are well documented and tools for

data collection and modeling available

• Modern survey technologies facilitate a move from

one-day to multiple days data collection

• Wide use of smart phones allows new in-situ data

collection methods

Page 12: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Effect of memory

and emotion on

learning and

satisfaction

Example of exploring new area (1)

How do travelers judge the likelihood of a risky

event?

How do travelers judge degree of satisfaction

with choice alternatives?

Page 13: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

How do travelers judge the likelihood of a risky

event?

Arentze, T.A. (2013) Incorporating human memory biases in travel-behavior models of

judgment and learning: availability and fluency heuristics. Paper presented at the HKSTS

Annual Conference, December 2013, Hong Kong.

Page 14: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

• This is a relevant question

• knowing how travelers make likelihood judgements is

important for understanding their choice behavior

• Naïve model

• people count occurences and store frequency data in

memory – their judgments are unbiased

• However, this is not in line with evidence. Two

fundamental biases in human likelihood judgements

are well-known (Lichtenstein et al., 1978)

Page 15: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Primary bias

• small probabilities are overestimated and large

probabilities are underestimated

• this eplains why rare events may have a large

impact

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

q

p

A

RP

RT

p

Evidence

Page 16: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Secondary bias

• events that are more vividly imagined are

overestimated

• this explains why a salient event such as a plane

crash tends to have much more impact than a more

common event

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

q

p

salient

base

p

Evidence

Page 17: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

• Availability / fluency heuristic

• first formulated by Tversky and Kahneman (1973)

• supported by numerous empirical studies

• Tversky and Kahneman (1973)

• people use a byproduct of memory processes to judge

the likelihood of some event

• that is, the ease with which examples of the event can

be retrieved from memory is used as criterion

• the easier examples come to mind the more likely the

event is judged to be

• This heuristic explains the primary and secondary

biases (Hertwig et al. 2005)

Theory

Page 18: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Model

• ACT-R cognitive architecture provides a model of

memory encoding and retrieval processes

(Anderson et al. 2004)

• This model explains the primary bias

kj

d

ijik tA )(ln

j ij

ikik

A

AQ

Page 19: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Model

• Extension of the ACT-R memory model to account

for effect of arousal on memory

• This model also explains the secondary bias

kj

Sd

ijik tA )()(ln

j ij

ikik

A

AQ

Page 20: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

How do travelers judge degree of satisfaction

with choice alternatives?

Wielens, N.J. and T.A. Arentze (2014) The role of affective experiences in travelers’

assessments of risks and subjective wellbeing: an experience sampling approach. Paper

prepared for the HKSTS Annual Conference, December 2014, Hong Kong.

Page 21: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

• This is a relevant question

• knowing how travelers arrive at satisfaction

judgements is important for understanding subjective

wellbeing and habitual behavior

• Naïve model

• decision utility is the same as experienced utility

utilities can be derived from choice behavior

• However, Kahneman (2000) points to known biases:

• neglect of duration of episodes

• dominance of end outcome of episodes

• disproportional impact of peak experiences

Page 22: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Model

• Again, the memory model of ACT-R offers a way to

describe this process

j ijiji UAU

• This model explains the disproportional impact of

extreme events on satisfaction

)()(ln Sd

ijij tA

Page 23: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

What data do we need to test and estimate the

models and how can the data be collected?

Wielens, N.J. and T.A. Arentze (2014) The role of affective experiences in travelers’

assessments of risks and subjective wellbeing: an experience sampling approach. Paper

prepared for the HKSTS Annual Conference, December 2014, Hong Kong.

Page 24: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Data collection

• In-situ measurement of affective experiences of

travelers (Ettema et al. 2014)

• Small questionnaire on the smartphone completed

on every trip

• data of the trip (mode, route, purpose, etc.)

• emotional state of the traveller during the trip

(arousal and valence)

• satisfaction judgment (experienced utility)

Page 25: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

What are the implications for policy making and

transport modeling?

Page 26: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Implications

• Policy making - theory stresses:

• importance of reliability of transport services on

satisfaction and judgement

– avoid negative peak experiences

• importance of avoiding losses in the behavior change

targeted

− losses generate negative emotion

• Transport modeling

• the memory-based models of learning and jugement

can be incorporated in dynamic travel-demand models

Page 27: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Individuals’ mental representations

of complex choice problems

What’s in a

person’s mind?

Joint work with Benedict Dellaert, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Example of exploring new area (2)

Page 28: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Measuring mental representations

Benefit 1

Attribute 1 Attribute 2

Benefit 2

Attribute 3 Attribute 5

Benefit 3

Attribute 4

Decision dimension X Decision dimension Y

Utility

Decision variables

Attributes

Benefits

utilities of choice alternatives

The representations are constructed for the choice problem at hand;

they determine how the individual evaluates choice alternatives

In earlier work, Dellaert et al. (2008) and Arentze et al. (2008)

conceptualized MRs as a causal network

Page 29: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Example - shopping

Pleasant

Crowded Prices

Goal success

Store variety Transfers

Convenience

Travel time

Location Transport mode

Utility

Decisions

Attributes

Benefits

Page 30: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Comparison to standard model

Standard model New approach

Attributes of alternatives are

assumed as given

Attribute selection is part of

the model

No information about

underlying reasons

Benefits underlying attribute

evaluation are part of the

model

Data about attributes are

collected in focus groups

Mental representations are

measured by an automated

interview technique

Mental costs of evaluation are

not taken into account

Mental costs of evaluation are

taken into account

Page 31: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Comparison to hybrid choice model

Hybrid choice model New approach

Psychological factors are taken

into account as latent variables

Mental representations are

taken into account

Psychological factors are

attitudes or perceptions

influencing preferences

Mental representations are

causal networks for reasoning

about a choice problem

Psychological factors are stable

person characteristics

Mental representations are

activated in a situation

Page 32: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Measurement of MRs

• CNET – interview technique of open-response

elicitation

• When you choose between Car, Bus and Bike

• Imagine a situation where you plan to make a

shopping trip

• What are your considerations?

• Why is it important?

-------------------------------------- Example ---------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Attributes

Benefits

• What would you choose? Choice

In contrast to existing laddering techniques – CNET is decision oriented

Page 33: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Experiment

What are your considerations in each of these decisions?

Imagine the following setting

Alternatives are presented for

• where to shop

• when to shop (time of day)

• which transportation mode

You need to do grocery

shopping activity on a

working day

Page 34: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Experiment

Imagine the following setting Alternatives for location

• a week market

• a corner store

• a supermarket

Alternatives for mode

• car

• bicycle

• bus

Alternatives for time-of-day

• during lunch

• after work

• in evening

Travel times by mode

Page 35: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Experiment

Imagine the following setting Base scenario

only the physical shopping alternatives are available

e-Commerce scenario

On-line shopping alternative is added

Subjects are randomly allocated to a scenario

Page 36: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Empirical application (Horeni et al. 2010, 2014)

• Representative sample of 666 individuals from a

Dutch panel

• Scenarios

• Base

• Uncertainty - product availability and travel time

• High Consequences - boss over for dinner

• e-Commerce

• Respondents were randomly allocated to a scenario

Page 37: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Example of an MR

Page 38: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Results - contents of MRs

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

familiarity with the SL

sort of bought products

combination with other activities

necessity

possibility to store shoppings

time pressure

habituation to the TM

durability of bought products

required time to shop

working hours

capacity of the TM

crowdedness in the store

travel time

availability of the TM

product quality

weather

conflict with other arrangements

recreation time during work

simplicity of the travel route

available time to shop

leisure time

non-interpretable/unclear

price level of the assortment

parking opportunities

accessibility of the store

number of bags to carry

distance from current location

available product assortment

e-commerce scenario basic scenario

Attributes

In base scenario more frequent

most frequent attributes same in

both scenarios

In e-commerce scenario more

frequent

In general there is little variation

between both scenarios with

regard to the nature of attributes

The differences are not significant

on a 5% level

Page 39: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Results - contents of MRs

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

personal care

safety in the shopping location

social acceptance

safety in travelling

taste experience

environmental protection

attractivity of the shopping environment

shopping comfort

travel pleasure

course of fitness/wellbeing

health

travel comfort

diversity in product choice

shopping pleasure

mental ease

financial savings

shopping success

relaxation/recreation

ease of shopping

time savings

ease of travelling

e-commerce scenario basic scenario

Benefits

most frequent benefits in both

scenarios

receive little attention in

shopping trip choice

General tendency

the benefits have higher

frequencies in the e-commerce

scenario

Significantly more frequent

Page 40: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Some substantive findings

• Most important considerations in scheduling the

shopping trips are − Shopping success, travel ease, time savings, shopping ease,

and financial savings

• Situational conditions varied have − Little influence on attributes activated

− Significant influence on

− Relative importance of the benefits and

− Some influence on how attributes influence benefits

• Considerable variation exists between individuals in

terms of their mental costs in the formation of

mental representations

Page 41: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Model development - MR

1. Basic building block is a D – A – B chain

2. Value of including a D – A – B chain

• Gain: reduction of risk of making wrong decision

• Costs: mental effort required for including in evaluation

3. Risk of making the wrong decision

• Utility variance caused by the decision variable

Decision

Alternative

Attribute Benefit

Page 42: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Logit model of MR activation

Net utility of activating a D-A-B chain in situation n

Probability of activating a D-A-B chain follows

binary logit specification

Extended to allow for heterogeneity in mental

costs ( ) and base line alternative preferences.

hijncnhijnhinijn

jnhijnc rsdssu )(

nc

Page 43: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Conclusions

• Model of mental representations combines

• utility-based theories of choice

• mental-model theories of cognition

• The model reveals situational dependence of:

• which attributes used in evaluation

• for what benefits

• trade-off with mental costs

• Data collection need to be expanded to cover also activated mental representations in a choice task

Page 44: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Group decision making

- joint activity choice

A negotiation model of group decision making

Example of exploring new area (3)

Page 45: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Modeling joint activity choice

Standard model New approach

Interactions between persons

within households

Extended to social networks

of persons

Assumes a group utility function No group utility function, just

individual preferences

Rational model Bounded rationality – human

biases

Ignores the process of group

decision making

Assumes a negotiation process

Page 46: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Background and objective

• Recent work on group decision making in travel

behavior research

• agent-based modeling (Ma et al. 2011, 2012)

• stated-choice experiments a.o.

− household location choice (Molin et al. 1999)

− logistics supply chains (Hensher et al. 2007)

− household vehicle purchase (Beck et al. 2012)

• This is an emerging field in travel behavior research

– many aspects

• The purpose of this study (Arentze 2014) is to

empirically estimate a model of group decision

making

Page 47: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Framework – process model

• Assumptions of the group process

• persons communicate the preferences for choice

options among each other

• they do proposals and respond to proposals of others

until agreement is reached

• Characteristics of the process

• no group utility function

• no central controller

• persons know each others preferences

• group decision is the result of group interaction

Page 48: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Theory and hypothesis

• When doing proposals or responding to proposals

individuals have to take into account preference

differences

• Findings from bargaining studies in social

psychology

• fairness plays an important role

• asymmetry in behavior (Loewenstein et al. 1989)

− fairness more important when negotiation is about

costs a.o.t rewards

Page 49: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

The social utility function

Uik = β1k Zik + β2k mk Zim + β3k D(Zi)

Own preference

value

Preference values

of others

Differences preference

values across the group

The social utility person k assigns to a proposal i

when it is a proposal from someone else

Uik = β0k +β1k Zik + β2k mk Zim + β3k D(Zi)

Added constant: basic inclination to follow

someone else

Page 50: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Joint choice task – doing a proposal

Activity A Activity B Activity C

Yourself 9 5 7

Friend 1 5 9 7

Friend 2 5 7 9

Which proposal would you do?

o Activity A

o Activity B

o Activity C

Imagine you are planning a joint activity with two friends

The preferences in the group are as follows

Maximizes own outcome

Maximizes group outcome

Three options for the activity have been identified

Page 51: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Joint choice task – doing a proposal

The preferences in the group are as follows

Another example

Activity A Activity B Activity C

Yourself 5 9 7

Friend 1 9 5 7

Friend 2 5 9 7

Which proposal would you do?

o Activity A

o Activity B

o Activity C

Equal outcomes

Maximizes group and own outcome

Page 52: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Joint choice task – variant

This time one of the friends does a proposal

Activity A Activity B Activity C

Yourself 9 5 7

Friend 1 5 9 7

Friend 2 5 7 9

What would you do?

o Accept the proposal

Do another proposal, namely

o Activity A

o Activity C

Friend 1 proposes to do: Activity B

The preferences in the group are as follows

Page 53: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Joint choice task – variant

Location A Location B Location C

Yourself 5 15 25

Friend 1 5 25 15

Friend 2 25 15 5

Which proposal would you do?

o Location A

o Location B

o Location C

This time the travel times differ

The travel times for the group are as follows

Page 54: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Sample and data collection

• 315 persons participated

• Random sample from a national panel

• Each person received

• 8 tasks – 4 x initiating and 4 x responding

• Scenarios

• Activity versus travel time

• High versus low consequences

• Outcome tables were varied by an efficient design

Page 55: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Results – basic MNL model

Parameter Value (β) t-value (β)

Self-interest (β1) 0.532 14.0

Other ones interest (β2) 0.319 11.1

Inequity (β3) -1.16 -11.9

Proposal status (β0) 0.928 9.21

Scale - small consequences 1.33 2.15

Scale - large consequences 1

Parameter Value (β) t-value (β)

Self-interest (β1) -0.063 -9.55

Other ones interest (β2) -0.027 -7.01

Inequity (β3) -0.215 -10.5

Proposal status (β0) 1.58 13.0

Scale - small consequences 1

Scale - large consequences 0.608 -4.72

Equity plays a significant

role

Equity has a bigger

influence

inequity / self = 2.18

inequity / self = 3.40

Activity

Travel time

Proposal status plays

a significant role

Proposal status has

a bigger influence

Parameter scale correction

Page 56: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Results – discrete mixture model

Parameter Mass point Value (β) t-value (β) Probability (π) t-value (π)

Self-interest (β1) 1 1.10 11.3 0.687 10.8

2 0.062 0.74 0.313 4.94

Other ones interest (β2) 1 0.718 8.74 0.777 13.8

2 -0.085 -1.27 0.223 3.95

Inequity (β3) 1 0.250 0.85 0.288 4.62

2 -2.50 -9.03 0.712 11.4

Proposal status (β0) 1 1.17 7.92 0.930 25.7

2 5.80 3.73 0.070 1.94

Parameter Mass point Value (β) t-value (β) Probability (π) t-value (π)

Self-interest (β1) 1 -0.020 -1.64 0.525 7.11

2 -0.190 -8.39 0.475 6.43

Other ones interest (β2) 1 -0.121 -5.26 0.364 3.46

2 -0.019 -2.11 0.636 6.04

Inequity (β3) 1 -0.601 -9.02 0.550 6.74

2 -0.079 -1.80 0.450 5.51

Proposal status (β0) 1 8.19 5.95 0.261 5.08

2 1.39 6.98 0.739 14.42

Activity

Travel time

There is considerable heterogeneity

69 %

78 %

71 %

7 %

48 %

36 %

55 %

26 %

Page 57: The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior ... · Social influence and group decision making . Aspects of bounded rationality Habitual life Learning & judgment

Social styles

Self interest Others interest Fairness

Balanced 1 1 1

Selfish 1 0 0

Altruistic 0 1 0

Social 0 0 1

Rational 1 1 0

Identification of styles

• assign each case to the pattern that maximizes the

likelihood of the choice observations

Meaningful styles can be defined as particular combinations of

parameter mass points

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Results

• Balanced style: self & others & equity

• Rational style: self & others

• Selfish style: self

• Social style: equity, equity & self / others

• Else: others; none

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Balanced Rational Selfish Social Else

Activity

Travel time

Strong asymmetry

Activity

Balanced style dominates

Travel time

Social style dominates

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Style memberships: estimation results MNL

model

Style Parameter Activity Travel time

Value t-value Value t-value

Balanced Constant 1.67 5.95 -0.762 -2.35

Rational Constant 0.074 0.19 -0.819 -1.99

age < 35 years 0.230 -1.37

age 35 -< 55 years -1.28 -2.49 0.309 0.69

age 55+ years 1.05 2.94 1.06 2.49

Selfish Constant -1.10 -2.13 -0.693 -2.19

Social Constant 0.847 2.75 1.02 4.69

Male -0.541

Female 0.541 3.29

Else Constant 0 0

Adjusted rho-square 0.207 0.169

Females more often social style in case of travel times

Older age group more often rational style

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Conclusions

• Considerable heterogeneity in styles

• Group process bias

• fairness (equity) is important

• process is important (proposal status)

• asymmetry costs and rewards

• Implications

• people favor equity for joint activities / travel

• e.g., they are willing to travel further when this leads to

more equal distribution of travel times

• The new model of joint activity choice takes process

bias into account

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Future research

• The model can be incorporated in activity-based

models to predict joint activity choice

• Simulations must be conducted to explore the

properties of the model

• extent to which it has an impact on outcomes

• It is interesting to see if the model can be validated

based on revealed preference data

• The model is basic – extensions in many directions

are possibly fruitful

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Conclusions - overall

• Bounded rationality is important in

• Learning & judgment

• Search & information acquisition

• Decision making

• Subjective wellbeing

• Social life

• Examples of exploring new area were given

• memory and emotion

• mental representations

• negotiation in group decision making

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Thank you for your attention

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