The Role of Coal in 2050

By Steve Goldthorpe(on the occasion of his 100th birthday)

To the Civic Responsibilities Class of Bream Bay College

Historical Perspective

• 1970s Oil Shock • Coal liquefaction R & D

• 1990s Climate Change – FCCC• CCS R & D

• 2015 Oil Crisis• Coal liquefaction started in NZ

• 2025 Climate Crisis• Adaptation

Sources of NZ transport fuel

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

2019

2024

2029

2034

2039

2044

2049

PJ

pe

r ye

ar

Net Importedcrude or products

Coal liquefaction

Biodiesel fromcrops etc

Indigenous crudeand condensate

Natural gas viaMTG process

Oil production in NZ

• 1980-2000– Maui oil and gas field bonanza

• 1985-1995– Petrol production from natural gas

• 2005- 2015– Pohokura, Tui & Maari oil production

• 2025 onwards– Small finds and gradual oil production decline– Production of biodiesel from crops– Coal liquefaction due to inability to import sufficient oil to meet demand

Liquid transport fuel demand

• Personal transport– Growing population– Rural lifestyle sustained– Partial transition to electric cars– Net effect no change in demand

• Freight transport– Growing economy– Closure of rural rail in 2012– Improvement in trucking logistics– Net effect no change in demand

Electricity

• 95% renewable after 2025– Hydro, Geothermal, Wind, Waves, Solar

• Increased demand from electric vehicles

• Distributed generation and smart grids to provide security of supply

• Gas turbines for short term back-up• Coal firing at Huntly in dry years

Consequences

• Adaptation to frequent severe storms

• Individual Coastal communities decided strategy of either– Managed retreat from

low-lying coastal land , or

– Building coastal defences

• Reduction in biodiversity

Apology

• Our baby-boomer generation– Understood the adverse effects of our

unsustainable civilisation on the global ecology

– Understood what actions were needed to leave Planet Earth in good condition for future generations

• BUT, – we failed to get our self-serving habits under

control