the role of coal in energy policy of poland. the role of coal in...18 000 19 000 20 000 21 000 22...
TRANSCRIPT
The Role of Coal in Energy Policy of
Poland
Janusz Michalski,
Head of Energy Policy Unit
Ministry of Energy
Tokyo, September 2017
Agenda
1. Characteristics and situation;
2. Trends and projections;
3. Challenges for energy sector;
4. Energy Policy directions;
Data source: PSE
Operator
Poland’s GDP growth comparing to the electricity consumption
during last 25 years
1
[%]
(2005 = 100%) [TWh]
Poland has made a great progress during last 25 years regarding GDP growth, whereas
electricity consumption also increased but with less dynamics.
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19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
110,0
120,0
130,0
140,0
150,0
160,0
170,0
180,0
190,0
200,0
Gross Domestic Product
Electricity consumption [TWh]
Primary energy demand- EC 2015 reference scenario
Electricty generation by fuel soures in 2015
Age structure of Polish thermal power plants
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Styczeń Luty Marzec Kwiecień Maj Czerwiec Lipiec Sierpień Wrzesień Październik Listopad Grudzień
MW
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Average domestic peak power demand (2006-2015)
8
Electricity – capacity demand
Conclusions on examined various energy scenarios
Increasing demand for primary energy and for electricity;
Price of CO2 emission allowances will be an important factor shaping the energy mix
Price levels of CO2 allowances will define in particular:
cost effectiveness of replacement of generation capacity for new high-efficient units
Share of gas and RES in the energy mix
competitiveness of nuclear energy
Coal will remain the key component of Poland’s energy security.
The role of RES will be growing but it will depend in particular on competitiveness and economic maturity
What are the challenges facing Polish energy sector?
Energy policy- main goals
Energy Security
Competitiveness Sustainable development
Policy directions
• Energy efficiency will remain the priority of the energy policy;
• Hard coal and lignite will remain basic fuels for power generation-
around 50% of electricty will be produced in 2050;
• Supporting investments in electricity generation (capacity market);
• The role of RES will increase according to EU policy but further
development of RES will depend on achieving economic and
technological maturity;
Policy directions
Nuclear Energy Program will be implemented (1st power plant in
2030);
Diversification of routs of gas supply: LNG, Norway, Denmark direction;
Development of transmission and distribution grid (also using smart
technologies);
Reducing CO2 emissions – EU 2030 goals
Electrification of transport
Development of energy clusters as a way to promote dispersed
generation
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Installed capacity
New powerplants – Diesel engines or gas
turbines in straight line
Currently built gas-steam units (Płock, Żerań,
Stalowa Wola, Włocławek)
New gas-stream powerplants
Currently built coal power plants (Jaworzno,
Kozienice, Opole) – without Ostrołęka C
Existing & currently built lignite power plants
(Turów)
Biogas & biomass
Photovoltaics
New coal power plants
DSR (ZR)
Elektrociepłownie (ZR)
Elektrownie wodne (ZR)
(ZR) Farmy wiatrowe
lądowe istniejące * (ZR)
Farmy wiatrowe
morskie nowe
(ZR)
*) with the assumption of 20-year service life
DG – determind growth
02
New nuclear powerplant
[MW]
Existing coal power plants
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 NP
(DG) Cogeneration (CHP)
(DG) Hydrr powerplants
(DG) Existing on-shore
wind power plants*
(DG) New off-shore
wind power plants
(DG) DSR
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
200 000
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 NP
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Electricity generation by sources
Currently built gas-steam units
(Płock, Żerań, Stalowa Wola,
Włocławek)
New gas-steam power plants
Existing & currently constructed
lignite power plants (Turów)
Biogas i biomass
Photovoltaics
New coal powe plants
CHP
Existing on-shore wind
power plants *
New off-shore
wind power plants
02
New nuclear power plant
Hydro
[GWh]
)* with the assumption of 20-year
service life
Currently constructed coal power
plants (Jaworzno, Kozienice, Opole)
– without Ostrołęka C
Existing coal power plants
Source: Z. Dziemidowicz, P. Szyszka, I. Krupa: Bloki na horyzoncie. Wymagania techniczne nowych jednostek wytwórczych w PGE Elektrowni Opole S.A.. Eneretyka Cieplna i Zawodowa 11/2011 (495)
SC and USC coal-fired power units to be
operational in Poland in 2017, 2018 and 2019
Adapting to challenges in coal-based electricity production
Replacing old and less efficient coal-fired power units by new ones will
result in 30% reduction of CO2 emissions
6
Improving the efficiency of the power generation process in coal-fired power plants should
be also classified as the clean coal approach
New coal-fired power units that will be operational in Poland in the coming years
will use supercritical and ultra supercritical technology.
https://www.google.pl/search?q=power+plant+efficiency&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiV5KDh9ef
LAhXJ3SwKHXyCBG0Q_AUIBygB&biw=1440&bih=789#imgrc=8-MGyrWSOjR7jM%3A
Adapting to challenges in coal-based electricity production
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CO2 reduction in power plants and CHP
02
[%]
0,0
2,3
1,5
-2,1
-6,0
-2,8
-1,8
-4,5
-2,7
-8,1
-7,6
-4,6
-4,7
-6,6
-8,6
-9,2
-16
,8
-17
,4
-17
,0
-16
,4
-15
,4
-15
,5
-15
,5
-16
,0
-18
,5
-18
,8
-25
,3
-30
,5
-30
,2
-30
,7
-31
,2
-32
,3
-32
,6
-33
,2
-33
,8
-33
,5
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
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ありがとうございました