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Folie 1
The Role of CSP in the Future MENA Electricity Mix
Franz Trieb
MENA Regional Water Outlook, The World Bank, January 26, 2012
Folie 2
Part 1: The scope of renewable energy in MENA
1. Technology options
2. Resource potentials
3. Sustainability indicators
4. A sustainable electricity supply scenario
5. Seawater Desalination
Folie 3
Portfolio of Energy Sources for Electricity:
Coal, Lignite Oil, Gas Nuclear Fission, Fusion Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Geothermal Power (Hot Dry Rock) Biomass HydropowerWind Power PhotovoltaicWave / Tidal
ideally stored primary energy
fluctuating primary energy
storable primary energy
Folie 4
Biomass (0-1)
Wind Energy (5-50)
Geothermal (0-1)
Hydropower (0-50)
Solar (10-250)
Max
Min
Electricity Yield in GWh/km²/y
Renewable Electricity Potential in Europe, Middle East & North Africa
Folie 5
For example: CSP potential in MENA
I. Solar Resource Assessment II. Land Resource Assessment
III. CSP Potential IV. Statistical EvaluationTechnical CSP Potential in MENA - Case Total
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MENA Regional Water Outlook, Phase 1
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Algeria 0.5 4.7 12.3 135771 35.0 20.9Bahrain 0.0 0.0 0.2 16 0.1 0.5Djibouti 0.0 0.0 0.0 300 1.0 50.0Egypt 50.0 25.7 14.1 57140 125.0 54.0Gaza & WB 0.0 0.0 1.7 8 0.5 20.0Iran 48.0 11.3 23.7 32134 12.0 54.0Iraq 67.0 0.0 8.8 24657 20.0 34.6Israel 7.0 0.0 2.3 151 0.5 6.0Jordan 0.1 0.0 1.6 5884 5.0 6.7Kuwait 0.0 0.0 0.8 1372 n.a. 3.8Lebanon 1.0 0.0 0.9 5 1.0 5.0Libya 0.0 0.0 1.8 82714 15.0 7.8Malta 0.0 0.0 0.1 0 0.2 0.2Morocco 4.0 10.0 14.3 8428 35.0 17.0Oman 0.0 0.0 1.1 14174 8.0 4.1Qatar 0.0 0.0 0.2 555 n.a. 1.5Saudi Arabia 0.0 70.9 10.0 75832 20.0 20.8Syria 4.0 0.0 4.7 8449 15.0 17.3Tunisia 0.5 3.2 3.2 5673 8.0 3.7UAE 0.0 0.0 0.7 447 n.a. 9.0Yemen 0.0 107.0 9.1 8486 3.0 19.3Total 182 233 111 462196 304 356
Wind PV *Hydro Geo Bio CSP
Renewable Electricity Potential in the Middle East & North Africa
* PV potential includes demand side restrictions, the total potential is similar to CSP
MENA Regional Water Outlook, Phase 1
(TWh/a)
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“Sustainable” electricity supply should be:
Inexpensivelow electricity cost no long term subsidies
Secure diversified and redundant supply power on demandbased on inexhaustible resourcesavailable or at least visible technologycapacities expandable in time
Compatible low pollution climate protectionlow risks for health and environmentfair access
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PhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassCSP PlantsOil / GasCoalNuclearPeak Load
Installed Capacity in all MENA Countries by Sources
260 GW fluctuatingcapacity!
MENA Regional Water Outlook, Phase 1
125% firm capacity with respect to peak load
1500 h/a4500 h/a
Folie 9
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Elec
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Electricity Production of all MENA Countries by Sources
MENA Regional Water Outlook, Phase 1
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Car
bon
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s (M
t/y)
Avoided PhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassCSP PlantsOilGasCoalNuclear
CO2- Emissions from Power Generation by Sourcest/GWh
Wind 12Photovoltaics 70Geothermal 80Biomass 68CSP Plants 17Hydropower 17Oil 700Gas 450Coal 800Nuclear 65
MENA Regional Water Outlook, Phase 1
Folie 11
Why CSP for Water in MENA?
1. CSP potential is very large even at coastal sites
2. good seasonal correlation of availability and demand
3. most abundant in regions with highest water scarcity
4. base load for uninterrupted operation of desalination
plants
5. solar powered pre-treatment replaces chemicals
MENA Regional Water Outlook, Phase 1
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Middle East & North Africa (MENA)
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Efficiency GainsUnsustainable ExtractionsCSP DesalinationConventional DesalinationWastewater ReuseSurface Water ExtractionsGroundwater ExtractionsTotal Demand BaU
MENA Regional Water Outlook, Phase 1
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Part 2: The associated challenges
1. The flexibility challenge
2. The investment challenge
3. The quality challenge
4. The policy challenge
5. The role of CSP in the future electricity mix
Folie 14
The Role of Wind, PV and CSP
PV and Wind do not deliver firm capacity.
Strong, well developed power markets in industrial countries can easily integrate large amounts of PV and wind power, as the existing capacity can balance fluctuations.
Growing power markets in developing countries need addition of firm capacity, preferrably by CSP, biomass or hydropower.
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Summer Week
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The role of variable and flexible renewable power sources in a 90% renewable electricity scenerio for the year 2050 for Germany.
Installed Capacities:
Photovoltaics: 55 GWWind Onshore: 40 GWWind Offshore: 30 GWDESERTEC: 16 GWImport Norway 4 GWGeothermal: 4 GWBiomass: 9 GWBiomass Waste: 4 GWHydropower: 6 GWNatural Gas: 63 GW
Case study Germany 2050
var.RE
flex.RE
flex.Fuel
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German Case Study, DLR 2011
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Hydro Industrial Units Combined-Cycle / natural gasGas Turbine / natural gas Steam Turbine / HFO CSP / peak-mediumPV Gas Turbines / LFO Import
Case study Jordan 2015: role of CSP and PV
PipelineEgypt
Jordan Case Study, DLR 2012
Folie 17
Case study Jordan 2030: role of CSP and PV
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PipelineEgypt
Jordan Case Study, DLR 2012
Folie 18
steam cycle power
1
solar field
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solar fieldsolar fieldsolar field
storage11
storage storage storage
SM1 SM2 SM3 SM4
fuel
1500 €/kW
+ 2500 €/kW+ 2000 h/y
+ 2500 €/kW+ 2000 h/y
+ 2500 €/kW+ 2000 h/y
+ 2500 €/kW+ 2000 h/y
11500 €/kW8000 h/y
The CSP Investment Challenge
CSP is a power plant plus „fuel“ for 40 years operation
as a capital good at stable cost
Folie 19
High capital cost of CSP is prohibitive for developing countries
1. limited national budgets cannot cope with high investments
2. low national credit ratings translate to low project credit ratings
cost of capital (interest rates) higher than for industrial countries
CSP can be introduced in a series of subsidized projects but markets will not develop
real markets can only be initiated by increasing the ratings of CSP projects in developing countries towards AAA standard
Folie 20
The quality challenge:How to cover a defined load with RE?
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Pow
er (M
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CSP solar CSP fuel
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Pow
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Wind Park Backup Plant
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Pow
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PV Plant Backup plant
CSP
Wind
PV
10 MW CSP (10% Gas)10 MW PV + 10 MW backup from grid (75% gas)10 MW Wind + 10 MW backup from grid (60% gas)
MENA Regional Water Outlook, Phase 1
Folie 21
Comparing Wind, PV and CSP
In most cost comparisons, PV and wind are assumed to have access to a cost-free, loss-free and unlimited storage device: the electricity grid. This seems wonderful, but is a rather expensive illusion!
In contrast to that, CSP has a real, limited storage with cost and losses. Therefore CSP will always loose when compared to PV and wind in a way that does not compare equal quality of supply.
There are 1 GW CSP, 40 GW PV and 200 GW wind power installed today. This means that the remaining potential for cost reduction of CSP is much higher than that for wind and PV including storage and backup. This cost reduction potential must be tapped by decidedly developing CSP world wide (just like PV and wind has been developed in the past)
MENA Regional Water Outlook, Phase 2
Folie 22
Setting an appropriate policy framework
recognize the need for large RE investment(RE investment replaces fuel consumption for decades)reduce capital cost by increasing RE project ratings towards AAA(re-insured PPA, guaranteed renewable electricity tariff)recompense the quality of flexible renewable power (re-insured PPA, guaranteed renewable firm-capacity tariff)provide transparent, long-term stable regulatory and policy framework for real RE markets
Folie 23
The role of CSP in the future electricity mix Base load and flexible power on demand (storage, hybrid mode)
By far the largest renewable energy resource from the deserts
Only alternative for flexible power in MENA except fossil fuels
Adds to limited flexible alternatives (hydro, biomass, geothermal) in Europe
Learning curve still ahead (1 GW CSP, 40 GW PV, 200 GW wind in 2010)
In the long run, the cost of firm and cost-stable capacity is lowest from CSP
CSP is the only sustainable source for base load supply of desalination plants
Only alternative for flexible and base load renewable electricity exports
CSP can selectively substitute the most expensive elements of power supply
CSP has among others the lowest life cycle carbon emissions and land use
Renewable base load source for synthetic liquid hydrocarbon production
Folie 24
If we always ask for least-cost solutions,we may end up with a least-cost planet.
www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp
Thank You