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TRANSCRIPT
The role of seasonal and occasional floods in the origin of extreme hydrological events
Lomonosov Moscow State University Department of Hydrology
Water Problem Institute, RAS
LOGO
Main goals of the study includes:
Spatial distribution analyses of different seasonal flow characteristics, drawing renewed maps of them
Investigation of seasonal and occasional flood wave variation and it’s influence on the low flow
Assessment of deficit and surplus under the threshold values and it’s dynamics during the XX – XXI century
Analyses of extreme hydrological events in terms of water regime transformation
Climate change Water regime Extremes
Dangerous hydrological phenomena
FloodsDangerous changes in river bed
Extremely low Flow
Water qualityIce Phenomena
3
Number of floods for North Caucases and Central Russia (Volga basin) (a) and East and West Siberia, Far East region (b) for 1991–2006 (Semenov, 2010)
Number of dangerous hydrological phenomena in Russia (http://www.meteorf.ru)
153 142163
195
254206
150175 160
193
285258
220
310
361387
436
349385
467
322
469 455
0
100
200
300
400
500
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
N
Dangerous hydrological phenomena4
Extreme draught 2010. Smoke in Moscow caused by wildfires
Extreme low flow in Volga basin, 2014. Flooded by Rybinskoe reservoir city Mologa appears
from under the water
Extremely high seasonal flood on the Oka, 2013, led to flooding of roods and countryside
Recent climate change on the European part of Russia5
Winter
Summer
Average increase rate of seasonal air temperature for 1976-2012 yy.
Spring
Autumn
Average Rainfall linear trend coefficient for 1976-2012
Average annual deviation of the air temperature for 1936-2009 гг.
1970
C° per 10 years
Winter Spring
Summer Autumn% per 10 years
Report on climate for the Russian Federation territory’ 2014
Average annual deviation of the
rainfall for1936-2009 гг.
1970
www.themegallery.com
6Методика многофакторной количественной оценки6
Typical features of recent climate conditions on the European part of Russia expressed in:
6
Sum of positive air temperatures during the cold period, which reflects thaws, increases dramatically
Most evident changes occurred in cold and mid-seasons conditions, warm period remained quite stable
Increase in annual average air temperature comes to+0,43 °C/10 years ‘1976-2012
Total precipitation of the cold period doubled for some stations on the south and west territories
The main changes in precipitation annual distribution occurred during the last 25-30 years are an increase of rainfall & decrease of snowfall
45
145
245
345
445
545
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
450
Total Р(XI-III) Sum Т+(XI-III)
Tota
l pre
cipi
tatio
n of
the
cold
per
iod
Sum
of p
ositi
ve a
ir te
mpe
ratu
res d
urin
g th
e co
ld p
erio
d
22-Jan1-Feb
11-Feb21-Feb
3-Mar13-Mar23-Mar
2-Apr12-Apr22-Apr2-May
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Date of stable transmission to positive temperature
LOGO
Main drainage basins of the European part of Russia7
1. Volga river basin F=1360000 km2
2. Don river basin F=422000 km2
3. N.Dvina river basin F=357000 km2
4. Pechora river basin F=322000 km2
5. Neva river basin F=281000km2
6. Kuban river basin F=58000 km2
7. Terek river basin F=43000 km2
19 representative watersheds was chosen from more then 300 hydrological gauging
stations, with a time series 1880-2013
0
50
100
150
250
200
300
III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II
IIIIII
3
1 2
Q, м /с3
East-European type of water regime with well-pronounced seasonal flood wave and stable summer-autumn low flow period
Seasonal flood wave transformation during the XX – XXI century8
Seasonal flood wave
• Potential water supply during summer-autumn low water period in the basin
• Character of rain-fed flash floods overlapping seasonal flood
• Water supply and regulation strategy in huge water management systems (such as Volga – Kama cascade, and etc)
• Ecological function of water system
Low spring flood
High spring flood
• High risk of drought formation• Problems with water quality• Water management uncertainty
• High risk of flood formation• Problems with water quality• Water management uncertainty
LOGO
Seasonal flood wave transformation during the XX – XXI century: Volga and Don river basin
9
Time-series of maximum discharge Qmax, m3/s (a), proportion of spring flood in total runoff d, % (b), coefficient of natural runoff regulation φ (c) for Oka - Kaluga
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Янв
арь
Фев
раль
Мар
т
Апр
ель
Май
Ию
нь
Ию
ль
Авг
уст
Сен
тябр
ь
Окт
ябрь
Ноя
брь
Дек
абрь
Расх
од в
оды
Q, м
3 /с
100
300
500
700
900
Янв
арь
Фев
раль
Мар
т
Апр
ель
Май
Ию
нь
Ию
ль
Авг
уст
Сен
тябр
ь
Окт
ябрь
Ноя
брь
Дек
абрь
Расх
од в
оды
Q, м
3 /с
1976
1997
Typical Hydrographs for Oka - Kaluga
a b c
10-years average hydrographs for Don - Kazanskaya
0
-20-40
0
-20
7 Seasonal flood wave transformation during the XX – XXI century 10
LOGO
Occasional flood separation: GrWat - algorithm11
12 calibrate parameters for Hydrograph separation by the nourishment types (Kudelin B.I. scheme, 1978)
•momegrad•grad1•kdQgr1•polmon(1)•polmon(2)
•polkol(1)•polkol(2)•polkol(3)•polgrad(1)•polgrad(2)•prodspada
Input = daily Q
Calibrate parameters
Opening Streams
Input Data
Years separation
elseif(Qin(k)>Qgr(k)) thenif(Mon(k)<mome.and.Year(k)==Year(1)) then
Wpavs(NF,1)=Wpavs(NF,1)+Qin(k)*86400/1000000000 Wpavs(NF,2)=Wpavs(NF,2)+(Qin(k)-
Qgr(k))*86400/1000000000 if(Qin(k)>Qmaxpavs(NF)) then
Qmaxpavs(NF)=Qin(k)nmaxpavs=k
end ifend ifif(Mon(k)>=mome.or.Year(k)>Year(1)) then
Wpavw(NF,1)=Wpavw(NF,1)+Qin(k)*86400/1000000000 Wpavw(NF,2)=Wpavw(NF,2)+(Qin(k)-
Qgr(k))*86400/1000000000 if(Qin(k)>Qmaxpavw(NF)) then
Qmaxpavw(NF)=Qin(k)nmaxpavw=k
Seasonal
separation
Seasonal flood
separation
Base flow separation
Flash flood separation
Low flow separation with different calibrate parameters
LOGO
Occasional flood dynamics for Volga and Don river basin 12
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
W, km3
0
3
6
9
12
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
W, km3 Summer
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
W km3 Winter
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
W, km3 Winter
Summer
Increase in occasional flood volume from 10 to 30 %
Rise of variance by 10 - 40 %
Both summer and winter flash flood runoff rise
Time-series of summer occasional flood volume (W, km3) for Don – Kazanskaya (a) and Vyatka – Vyatskie Polyani (b)
LOGO
Occasional flood dynamics for Volga and Don river basin13
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Qmax, m3/s
0
10
20
30
40
50
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Qmax1/ Qmax2
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Qmax, m3/s
Q low period, m/s
Qmax Flash Flood
Qmax Seasonal Flood
Low flow
LOGO
Seasonal and occasional floods VS extremes14
The method of «Threshold values»
Qmonthly > Q10% Qmonthly < Q90%
SurplusΔVi = Qi – Q10
DeficiteΔVi = Q90 - QiT
ViSev
LOGO
Seasonal and occasional floods VS extremes15
The number of extreme draughts directly connected with the number
of floods for one river
The volume of deficits directly connected with the volume of
surplus for one river
Sev index is strongly connected with the basin area
LOGO
Seasonal and occasional floods VS extremes16
№ River Gauging stationMaximum
surplusMaximum deficit Last deficit
1 North Dvina Ust – Pinega 1974, 1955, 1993 1938, 1941, 1939 19692 Onega Porog 1966, 1955, 1995 1997, 1988, 1945 2006
3 Mezen Malonisogorskaya 1966, 1949, 2003 1956, 1934, 1988 20064 Pechora Ust – Tsilma 1935, 1952, 1939 1941, 1942, 1935 20085 Sukhona Kalikino 1961, 1958, 1955 1950, 1945, 1940 19966 Ysa Adzva 1975, 1972, 1981 1941, 1942, 1971 20027 Vetluga Vetluga 1974, 1992, 1966 1945, 1950, 1967 19778 Volga Staritsa 1966, 1947, 1958 1940, 1945, 1969 1977
9 Moksha Shevelkovkiy Majdan 1979, 1981, 2001 1937, 1939, 1995 199510 Oka Gorbatov 1932, 1970, 1931 1939, 1943, 1945 197311 Ygra Tovarkovo 1970, 1958, 1947 1939, 1938, 1964 197512 Belaya Birsk 1914, 1941, 1926 1940, 1936 - 1938 197613 Vishera Ryabinino 1990, 1993, 1979 1939, 1941, 1935 200614 Vyatka Vyatskie Polyani 1966, 1974, 1947 1938-1939, 1920-1921 197715 Kama Bondug 1974, 1972, 1957 1913, 1918, 1922 200616 Ufa Verkhnij Suyan 1914, 1926, 1941 1937, 1940, 1941 200817 Don Kazanskaya 1942, 1932, 1963 1945, 1946, 1972 197618 Medveditsa Archedinskaya 1994, 1929, 1941 1938, 1972, 1939 1984
19 Khoper Besplemyanovkij 1979, 1942, 1948 1938, 1939, 1972 2010
LOGO
Dynamic of extreme hydrological events: NORTHEN RIVERS17
Surplus
Deficit
Increase in severity of floods
Double decrease in volume of deficits
During the last 30 years the frequency of deficits
falls into 15-20 % in comparison with 60 %
LOGO
Dynamic of extreme hydrological events: VOLGA17
Surplus
Deficite
Double decrease in severity of floods
Last deficit was observed in 1975
During the last 30 years the frequency of deficits
falls into 5-20 % in comparison with 60 %
LOGO
Dynamic of extreme hydrological events: KAMA17
Surplus
Deficit
Double increase in severity of floods
Decrease in volume of deficits
During the last 30 years the frequency of deficits
falls into 5 % in comparison with 50 %
LOGO
Dynamic of extreme hydrological events: DON17
Surplus
Deficite
Double decrease in severity of floods
Last deficit was observed in 1975
During the last 30 years the frequency of deficits
falls into 5-20 % in comparison with 60 %
Опасные ледовые явленияFloods and deficits decrease but the economic loss and number of
dangerous events arise ?18
Mean annual damage caused by river flooding in Russian Federation (Frolova, Alekseevsky, 2010)
70
87
120
313
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Kuban
Don
Terek
Volga
million USD
In the ХХ th. the increase in number of extreme events and losses mostly connected with social‐economic factors while the natural component became lower due to the natural runoff regulation rise
Climate changes Another type of water regimeNew schemes of
water management
Natural runoff regulation doubled during the last 30 years period, but variation doubled too
Thank you for your attention !!!