the role of social sciences and humanities (ssh) in futures research - wordpress… ·...

Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research

What is the role of social sciences and humanities (SSH)

in Futures Research?

This presentation is based on the Mapping Foresight (Popper, 2009) research carried out for the European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN)

now transformed into the EFP (2009-2012)

Rafael [email protected]

A research question inspiring the work of theiKNOW project (www.iknowfutures .eu)

and the Mapping activities of the European Foresight Platform (EFP)


Outline

1. Is futures research a fashion?

• How to map interdisciplinarity in futures research?

• What is the role of SSH in futures research?

• Final remarks and recommendations for the future of SSH?

• References and further reading


Section 1: Is futures research

(foresight)a fashion?


About futures research& foresight

“The future’s not what it used to be”

As argued in Miles (2005, 2008) and Miles and Keenan (2002) , Foresight is a set of approaches to bringing longer-term considerations into decision-making, with the process of engaging informed stakeholders in analysis and dialogue being important alongside the formal products that can be codified and disseminated.

• Policy-making approaches adopt a longer-term perspective in the form of strategic planning, allowing flexibility and preparedness to deal with uncertainty, disruptive events and innovations.

• Participative approaches involve interaction of wider ranges of stakeholders and experts in envisioning the future.

• Prospective (forward-looking) approaches involve traditional forecasting efforts, using systematic methods to explore future dynamics, enabling development of coping strategies.

Policy-making

Participative ProspectiveFORESIGHT


Key features (phases & elements) of a systematic foresight process

Popper (2008)

Today’s futures research is increasingly becominga key and systematicinstrument

for the development

and implementation of research and innovation policy


Key features of foresight methods:The Foresight Diamond (Popper, 2008)

R. Popper (2008)R. Popper (2008)

SSH’s role

WhatCreativity ?

WhatEvidence ?

WhatExpertise ?

WhatInteraction ?

SSH’s role

CONTEXTUALISATION


Evolution of national (technology) foresight programmes

Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)

Since

1971 Japan 1st to 4th STA surveys Delphi

Japan 5th STA survey Delphi 1991

USA Critical Technologies Others

New Zealand Public Good Science Fund Others 1992

Germany BMFT, T 21 Others

South Korea Foresight Exercise Others 1993

Germany Delphi ’93 Delphi

UK 1st TF Programme Delphi + Others 1994

France Technology Delphi Delphi

1995 France 100 Key Technologies Others

Japan–Germany Mini-Delphi Delphi

Austria Delphi Austria Delphi

Japan 6th STA survey Delphi 1996

Australia Matching S&T to futures needs Others

Spain ANEP Delphi + Others

Hungary TF Programme (TEP) Delphi + Others

Netherlands Technology Radar Others 1997

Finland SITRA Foresight Others

South Africa Foresight Exercise Delphi + Others

Germany Delphi ’98 Delphi

Ireland Technology Foresight Ireland Others 1998

New Zealand Foresight Exercise Others

UK 2nd UK Foresight Programme Others

Sweden 1st Swedish Foresight Others

Spain OPTI Technology Foresight Delphi

South Korea Korean Technology Delphi Delphi

Thailand ICT Foresight Delphi + Others

1999

China TF of Priority Industries Delphi + Others

Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.

Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)

Japan 7th STA Survey Delphi

Brazil Prospectar Delphi

Brazil TFP Brazil (UNIDO/MDIC) Delphi + Others

France 2nd 100 Key Technologies Others

2000

Portugal ET2000 Others

Venezuela TFP Venezuela 1st cycle Delphi + Others

Chile TFP Chile Delphi

Germany FUTUR Others 2001

Czech Republic TF Exercise Others

Turkey Vision 2023 Delphi + Others

Colombia TFP Colombia 1st cycle Delphi + Others

UK 3rd UK Foresight Programme Others

Cyprus, Estonia, Malta eForesee Others

Denmark National TF Denmark Others

2002

USA NIH Roadmap USA Others

China TF Towards 2020 Delphi + Others

Greece Technology Foresight Greece Others

Norway Research Council 2020 studies Others 2003

Sweden 2nd Swedish TF Others

Japan 8th Japanese Programme Delphi + Others

South Korea Korea 2030 Delphi + Others

Ukraine Ukranian TF Programme Delphi + Others

France FuturRIS Others

France AGORA Others

Venezuela TFP Venezuela 2nd cycle Others

2004

Russia Key Technologies Others

Colombia TFP Colombia 2nd cycle Delphi + Others

Brazil Brazil 3 Moments Delphi + Others

Romania Romanian S&T Foresight Delphi + Others

Finland Finnsight Others

Luxembourg FNR Foresight Others

2005

USA 21st Century Challenges GAO Others

Finland SITRA Foresight Others 2006

Poland Poland 2020 – TF Programme Delphi + Others

Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.

Futures research

(foresight) is not

a mere fashion!


Mapping Foresight (Popper, 2009)

• EFMN Mapping has produced a vast amount of information on foresight unprecedented in the world

• It has been useful to understand foresight practicesin Europe and other regions of the world

2005 2006 2007 20082004

437 cases L2> 800

L0 & L1

767 cases L2> 1400 L0 & L1

100 cases

846 cases L2> 1600L0 & L1

2008

> 1000 cases L2> 2000 cases in

Levels 0 & 1


Section 2: How to map

interdisciplinarityin futures research?


Step 1: mapping foresight practiceslinking practices to Frascati research areas

Step 2: identifying key areas‘knowledge hubs’‘knowledge junctions’

Step 3: recognising key sub-areas ‘knowledge maps’

Step 4: mapping foresight outputs(e.g. recommendations, wild cards, weak signals, roadmaps, scenarios, etc)

linking outputs to EC FP7 research areas & GCs

Step 5: recognising emerging and interdisciplinary issues


mapping linkages to research areas using the FRASCATI taxonomy

79

213

117

370

62

75

92

25

335

117

13

11

17

26

25

17

270

213

140

79

132

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Agricultural sciences

Medical sciences

Natural Sciences

Humanities

Social sciences

Engineering and technology

Engineering and technology Social sciences Humanities Natural Sciences Medical sciences Agricultural sciences

2526Humanities

• In total, we mapped 841 cases against the Frascati taxonomy

• The results show that Engineering and Technology (44%), Social Sciences (40%), and Natural Sciences (32%) are by far the most popular categories characterising our foresight sample.

• These results reveal the existence of uneven or asymmetric interconnectionsbetween research areas at an aggregated level.


Identifying key research areas‘knowledge hubs’

The figure shows very strong linkages between:

• Engineering & Tech. ,• Natural Sciences , and• Social Sciences.

These three areas can be considered as the main‘knowledge hubs’ of futures research.

These results simply confirm the interdisciplinary nature of foresight.


Identifying key research areas‘knowledge junctions’

A Natural sciencesA06 Biological Science

B Engineering & TechnologyB09 Environmental EngineeringB13 Communications Technologies

C Medical sciencesC12 Public Health and Health Services

D Agricultural sciencesD01 Crop and Pasture Production

E Social sciencesE04 Policy and Political Science


Policy and Political Scienceplays a significant role in SSH Futures

7%

8%

8%

9%

21%

22%

26%

32%

34%

66%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Sociology

Demography

Law, justice and law enforcement

Political Science

Policy and Administration

Education

Commerce, management, tourism and services

Economics

Studies in human society

Policy and Political Science

Top 10 linkages between futures research & social sciences(335 cases)


Recognising ‘key sub-areas’in the ‘foresight knowledge maps’

A Natural sciencesA04 Chemical Science (key broker)A06 Biological Science

B Engineering & TechnologyB02 Industrial Biotechnology & Food SciencesB04 Manufacturing EngineeringB09 Environmental Engineering (key broker)B10 Materials EngineeringB11 Biomedical EngineeringB12 Electrical and Electronic EngineeringB13 Communications Technologies (key broker)

C Medical sciencesC01 Medicine GeneralC05 Pharmacology & Pharmaceutical Sciences C12 Public Health & Health Services (key broker)

D Agricultural sciencesD01 Crop and Pasture Production (key broker)

E Social sciencesE01 EducationE02 EconomicsE03 Commerce, management, tourism & servicesE04 Policy and Political Science (key broker)E05 Studies in human society

In a way, Social Sciences functions as the ‘binder’ of research topics in foresight studies. This is quite the opposite with Humanities.


Linking outputs to EC FP7 research areasand Grand Challenges (GCs)

2009 2010

blogs

social networks

interviewsinterviews Etc.

journals

Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities researchprototype

iKNOW Oracleinterconnecting knowledge

(convergence-interdisciplinary)

new research questions

impact on Grand Challenges

identification of problems

identification of solutions

relevance to FP7 research

pattern recognition

emerging issues

informing policy

possible futures

sense-making

recognising emerging and interdisciplinary issues

www.iknowfutures.eu


Section 3: What is the role of SSHin futures research?


The role of SS&H in Futures Research / Foresight

E Social sciencesE01 EducationE02 EconomicsE03 Commerce, management, tourism & servicesE04 Policy and Political ScienceE05 Studies in human societyE06 Behavioural and cognitive sciencesE07 Law, justice and law enforcement

F HumanitiesF01 Journalism and curatorial studiesF02 The artsF03 Language and cultureF04 History and archaeologyF05 Philosophy and religion

B Engineering & Technology

Areas with more than 100 interconnections



B Engineering & TechnologyA Natural sciencesC Medical sciences






B Engineering & TechnologyA Natural sciencesC Medical sciencesD Agricultural sciences







F HumanitiesF01 Journalism and curatorial studiesF02 The artsF03 Language and cultureF04 History and archaeologyF05 Philosophy and religion B Engineering & Technology

A Natural sciencesC Medical sciencesD Agricultural sciencesF Humanities



The role of SSH in Foresightis not only

an European phenomenon.

In particular,Latin America has much in common with

Europe,and the role of

SSH is one of those

commonalities.

Research areas Internat. Europe Latin A. North A. Asia Oceania

935 cases mapped 56 599 101 92 75 13

Philosophy and religionHistory and archaeology

Language and cultureThe arts

Journalism and curatorial studiesHumanities

Law, justice and law enforcementBehavioural and cognitive sciences

Studies in human societyPolicy and Political Science

Commerce, management, tourism and servicesEconomicsEducation

Social sciencesOther Agricultural, Veterinary and Env. Sciences

Land, Parks and Agriculture ManagementFisheries SciencesForestry Sciences

Veterinary SciencesAnimal Production

HorticultureCrop and Pasture Production

Agricultural sciencesOther Medical and Health Sciences

Human Movement and Sports ScienceComplementary/alternative Medicine

Public Health and Health ServicesNursing

Clinical SciencesOptometry

DentistryNeurosciences

Medical PhysiologyPharmacology and Pharmaceutical Sciences

Medical MicrobiologyMedical Biochemistry and Clinical Chemistry

ImmunologyMedicine generalMedical sciences

Other Engineering and TechnologyInterdisciplinary Engineering

Communications TechnologiesElectrical and Electronic Engineering

Biomedical EngineeringMaterials Engineering

Environmental EngineeringGeomatic Engineering

Civil EngineeringResources Engineering

Chemical EngineeringManufacturing Engineering

Aerospace EngineeringIndustrial Biotechnology and Food Sciences

Architecture, urban and buildingEngineering and technology

Biological SciencesEarth Sciences

Chemical SciencePhysical science

Information, computing and comm. scienceMathematical science

Natural Sciences


Section 4: Final remarks and

recommendations for the future of SSH


Research Areas A B C D E F

A Natural Sciences 79% 26% 27% 34% 6%

B Engineering & Technology 58% 21% 20% 32% 5%

C Medical Sciences 50% 56% 27% 54% 8%

D Agricultural Sciences 55% 56% 29% 47% 10%

E Social Sciences 27% 35% 22% 19% 7%

F Humanities 65% 65% 42% 50% 96%

Final remarks (1/2)

• Social Sciences plays a vital role in futures research on Humanities (96%), an important role in foresight on Medical (54%) and Agricultural (47%) sciences, and a moderate role in foresight on Natural Sciences (34%) and Engineering and Technology (32%)

Research Areas A B C D E F

A Natural Sciences 79% 26% 27% 34% 6%

B Engineering & Technology 58% 21% 20% 32% 5%

C Medical Sciences 50% 56% 27% 54% 8%

D Agricultural Sciences 55% 56% 29% 47% 10%

E Social Sciences 27% 35% 22% 19% 7%

F Humanities 65% 65% 42% 50% 96%

Social Sciences Humanities

• Engineering and technology plays a moderate role in futures research on Social Sciences (35%)

• All research areas play an important role in futures research on Humanities (from 42% to 96%)

• Humanities seems to play an insignificant (!) role in futures research on Social Sciences (7%)


Final remarks (2/2)

• Social Sciences is the ‘binder’ of most research top ics in foresight– Except for…

– Behavioural and Cognitive Sciences and

– Law, Justice and Law Enforcement,most SS topics are highly interconnected with other areas of the Frascati taxonomy.

• The results highlight the cohesive role of foresight on sub-areas of the SS– This is mainly because foresight projects are designed in such a way that, at some

time in the process, linkages are established with the policy dimension or (using the Frascati terminology) with sub-area Policy and Political Science.

• This is quite the opposite with research within Hum anities , which have the least salient links to other research topics.


Recommendations

These findings suggest the need:

1. To promote futures research on Social Sciences area s, such as:– behavioural and cognitive sciences and law, justice and law enforcement;

and Humanities areas , such as:– journalism, religion or history, for example.

2. To involve SSH researchers in activities aimed at i nforming and shaping foresight practices , for example:

– By challenging and enriching the relevance of research methods

– By continuously contextualising research processes and products

3. To inform SSH researchers, policy-makers and busin ess communities about the role of SSH in futures research , such recognition could:

– increase the profile of SSH;

– increase the interdisciplinary nature of research, networking and co-operation; and

– help identify more coherent and bottom-up Grand Challenges by interconnecting knowledge from a wide range of domains.


References andfurther reading


References & further reading

The Handbook of Technology Foresight (2008)Luke Georghiou, Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Michael Keenan, Ian Miles and Rafael Popper (Eds)

Foresight, Volume 10, Number 6, 2008Editors’ introduction to the European Foresight Monitoring NetworkMaurits Butter, Felix Brandes, Michael Keenan and Rafael PopperComparing foresight “style” in six world regionsMichael Keenan and Rafael PopperHow are foresight methods selected?Rafael Popper

Mapping Foresight: Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future (2009)Rafael Popper

EFP


Thank you!

Rafael [email protected]

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