the saturday economist, modeling gdp(o) update q3 october 2014. now it's so easy to forecast...
DESCRIPTION
The UK economy grew by 3% year in the third quarter as the strong growth experienced in the first half of the year continued. The results are in line with our latest forecasts and estimates produced by the Manchester Index™, the nowcasting model from the GM Chamber of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey. Service sector growth underpins the recovery in the economy with overall growth up by 3.3%. Business Services increased by 4.3% and leisure activity was also strong up by (3.8%). Distribution activity came in ahead of our latest forecasts with strong growth of 3.7%. So what of manufacturing and construction? Manufacturing growth was 3.4% and construction activity increased by a more modest 3%. An all round strong performance for the economy held back by the secular down trends in agriculture and extractives. Our forecasts for the year are unchanged. We expect growth of 3.1% for the year slowing to 2.8% in 2015. Check out the full slide pack for the detailed forecastsTRANSCRIPT
Modelling GDP(O)Forecasts for the UK economy 2014 - 2015
Modelling GDP(O) TheSaturdayEconomist.com
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2000 2005 2010 2015
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GDP(O) Output Index
The Saturday Economist.com
October 2014
Modelling GDP(O)
GDP (O) growth in the third quarter of 2014 was 3.0% year on year with significant growth in manufacturing, construction and the service sector.
Construction growth increased by 3.0%. Manufacturing output increased by 3.4% and overall production output increased by 2.2%
Overall service sector output was up by 3.3% with continued strong growth in the distribution hotels and leisure sector (3.8%) and business services sector up by 4.3%. Transport storage and communications output increased by 3.7%
The outturn is more or less inline with estimates in the quarterly economics outlook September. Despite the lower performance in construction compared to expectation, the overall position remains unchanged. We still forecast growth of 3.1% in 2014 slowing to 2.7% in 2015.
GDP (O) growth in the third quarter of 2014 up 3.0%
We still forecast growth of 3.1% in 2014 slowing to 2.7% in 2015.
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GDP(O) Year on Year Change
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Construction Manufacturing Services Total
2.72.92.8
4.03.13.1
3.7
5.1
3.13.33.43.0 3.23.2
3.7
5.7
3.12.9
4.0
7.6
Q1 Actual Q2 Actual Q3 Actual 2014 Fcts 2015 Fcts
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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GDP(O)
The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
Data Source : ONS Seasonally adjusted data ONS Weight : 1000 / 10000Trend : PositiveCyclical ; Economic
October 2014
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GDP(O)
The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
October 2014
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
Data Source : ONS Seasonally adjusted data ONS Weight : 07 / 10000Trend : PositiveCyclical ; Evidence of three year cycle
GDP(O) weight 6 / 1000
October 2014
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Mining and Quarrying
The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
Data Source : ONS Seasonally adjusted data ONS Weight : 23 / 10000Trend : NegativeCyclical : No evidence
GDP(O) weight 23 / 1000
October 2014
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Manufacturing
The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
Data Source : ONS Seasonally adjusted data ONS Weight : 101 / 10000Trend : PositiveCyclical ; Evidence of three year cycle
GDP(O) weight 101 / 1000
October 2014
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Electricity, Gas, Steam
The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
Data Source : ONS Seasonally adjusted data ONS Weight : 10/ 10000Trend : NegativeCyclical ; Erratic
GDP(O) weight 10 / 1000
October 2014
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Water, Sewage
The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
Data Source : ONS Seasonally adjusted data ONS Weight : 12 / 10000Trend : PositiveCyclical ; Economic
GDP(O) weight 12 / 1000
October 2014
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Total Production
The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
Data Source : ONS Seasonally adjusted data ONS Weight : 146 / 10000Trend : PositiveCyclical ; Economic, erratic
GDP(O) 146 / 1000
October 2014
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Construction
The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
Data Source : ONS Seasonally adjusted data ONS Weight : 64 / 10000Trend : PositiveCyclical ; Economic
GDP(O) weight 64 / 1000
October 2014
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Distribution, Hotels and Leisure
The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
Data Source : ONS Seasonally adjusted data ONS Weight : 139/ 10000Trend : PositiveCyclical ; Economic
GDP(O) weight 139 / 1000
October 2014
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Check out www.johnashcroft.co.uk, Join me on LinkedIn, Twitter or Google+
Transport, Storage and Communications
The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
Data Source : ONS Seasonally adjusted data ONS Weight : 104 / 10000Trend : PositiveCyclical ; Economic
GDP(O) weight 104 / 1000
October 2014
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Check out www.johnashcroft.co.uk, Join me on LinkedIn, Twitter or Google+
Business Services and Finance
The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
Data Source : ONS Seasonally adjusted data ONS Weight : 307 / 10000Trend : PositiveCyclical ; Economic
GDP(O) weight 307 / 1000
Estimate updated for 2014 Q2 25th July
October 2014
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Education, Health, Other Services
The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
Data Source : ONS Seasonally adjusted data ONS Weight : 234 / 10000Trend : PositiveCyclical ; EconomicSlower rate of expenditure projection
GDP(O) weight 234 / 1000
October 2014
75.0
79.0
83.0
87.0
91.0
95.0
99.0
103.0
107.0
111.0
115.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Total Services
The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
Data Source : ONS Seasonally adjusted data ONS Weight : 784/ 10000Trend : PositiveCyclical ; EconomicSlower rate of expenditure projection
GDP(O) weight 784 / 1000
October 2014
Check out www.johnashcroft.co.uk, Join me on LinkedIn, Twitter or Google+The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
October 2014
Check out www.johnashcroft.co.uk, Join me on LinkedIn, Twitter or Google+The Saturday Economist.com
Modelling GDP(O)
October 2014
Modeling GDP(O)Forecasts for the UK economy 2014 - 2015
Modeling GDP(O) TheSaturdayEconomist.com
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