the science of social - an experiment in influence

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    An Experiment in Influence

    THESCIENCE OFSOCIAL

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    Contents

    Introduction ................................................................... 04

    Hypothesis ..................................................................... 05

    Key Findings .................................................................. 06

    Approach ....................................................................... 07

    Results............................................................................ 08

    Conclusion ..................................................................... 14

    Appendix:

    Experimental Design.................................................... 17

    Methodology ................................................................. 20

    Real World Action ......................................................... 22

    Contributors .................................................................. 23

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    Introduction

    Anyone whos been close to the marketing industry over

    the last few years is fascinated with the evolving view of

    social.

    Once it was all about Facebook fans.

    Then in 2009, as Facebook understandably wanted to

    reflect more accurately the relationship that people have

    with brands, fans became Likes.

    And then in its collective wisdom, the UK marketing

    industry declared that Its not all about Likes.

    As an industry, we havent been great at articulating the

    contribution that social media can and does make to a

    business.

    Social is changing marketing, and other areas of business,

    at a pace that sometimes masks our ability to demonstrate

    its true value. Theres an imperative to building the

    business case, to evidence the impact social can have on

    our clients business.

    Whilst we agree that the opportunities presented by social

    media go far beyond Likes, the question still remains -

    what are they worth?

    The problem, as we see it, is that there is a fundamental

    disparity between the intellectual and financial investment

    made in social media and the body of effectiveness to

    support it.

    Aegis Media has therefore conducted a research study to

    at least begin to bridge this gap.

    Unlike a lot of the research done in this area, which

    focusses on the value of an individual fan to a business,

    our study focusses on their indirect social value.

    We are not yet in a position to share a definitive set of

    results, but rather to post a substantiated hypothesis that

    will warrant further investigation. So, we hope what we

    are about to share is interesting, stimulating, thought-

    provoking and, above all, practical.

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    with existing customers, how can you make that show

    up in an econometric study designed to track acquisition

    performance?

    Side-stepping the ROI question isnt good enough. Clients

    should still expect a return on the not insubstantial

    investment they put into their social platforms. We wanted

    to move forward the thinking on creating robust and

    measurable results for a businesses social media spend,

    while considering the idea of how welcome brands are on

    the social platform.

    INFLUENCE OF GROUP BEHAVIOUR

    Our insights into human behavior have become more

    sophisticated in recent years. Their application to the

    world of marketing is more prevalent, thanks to the

    popularisation of theories developed by behavioural

    scientists.

    From this field has emerged the familiar notion of

    social proof. This is a phenomenon whereby people

    are unconsciously affected by the behaviour of others.

    Sometimes these are referred to as social norms, or

    herding effects.

    Social networks can often feel like concentrated group

    behavior in a way that echoes the herding effects we

    observe in the real world. As peer-to-peer networks, they

    can act as echo chambers that magnify ideas or behaviours

    at scale, quickly, as people follow the majority behavior.

    We wanted to test whether people are unconsciously

    influenced by group behavior online, in a similar way to

    how they are offline.

    THE MEASUREMENT IMPERATIVE

    Clients want to know that a fan is worth the money they

    have paid to acquire them. Its equally natural that as

    an industry we want to prove a fan will become a more

    valuable customer.

    Throughout Social Media Week, and at meetings held

    between clients and agencies during almost any other

    week, the value of a fan remains a hot topic. Often the

    phrase ROI will be mentioned in the same breath. Return

    On Investment is a financial metric that is concerned with

    the transactional value an individual on a brands social

    channel may represent. This is an established metric that

    we are all familiar with and works in social the same way

    as with any other marketing activity.

    But social is not necessarily like any other marketing,

    however, and not all definitions of value are transactional.

    We wanted to test the value of social in a manner consistent

    with the way people themselves use social.

    PEER TO PEER

    Social networks have never belonged to brands. They

    belong to people. Users first thought or action is not

    always to connect with brands, but to connect with each

    other.

    Understandably, brands want be involved. A good

    marketing team will follow its customers and attempt to

    add value to what their customers find important.

    It has not always been easy to demonstrably deliver value

    to business through social media. If social channels are

    an opportunity to develop and maintain good relationships

    Our Starting Hypothesis

    The research outlined in this report, including experimental design

    and data analysis, was planned and run in collaboration with Jon

    Jachimowicsz and Joe Gladstone, academic researchers from the

    University of Cambridge Judge Business School. There were 3 reasons

    for commissioning this study.

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    Summary of Key Findings

    Our findings suggest that Likes generate an

    unconscious and immediate effect, similar to

    any number of cues in the real world. We can

    conclude that human behaviour offline translates

    into social networking behaviour online and

    furthermore, that appropriate interventions on

    brand pages can yield measurable effects.

    High Facebook users were more likely to be more

    positive respondents overall. This demonstrates the

    importance of social media as a realm for creating

    positive brand perceptions and suggests that brands

    are a welcome presence on the Social Media platform.

    A high number of Likes do help improve brand

    perceptions. There is a statistically significant

    relationship between the number of Likes respondents

    believed the brand to have, and how positively they

    answered the questions relating to the brand.

    However, while this positive trend is very steep asLikes increase from a Low to a Medium level (0-2000

    Likes), it tails off significantly between Medium and

    High (10,000+ Likes). Further Likes above the tens

    of thousands do not seem to deliver a proportionate

    level of increased positive perception. More study is

    required to confirm the exact thresholds for consumer

    herding effects and explore their meaning for brands.

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    ASHWOOD FURNISHINGS

    - beautifully designed affordable homeware

    Established in 1864 in the UK, Ashwood Furnishings

    is a family-owned business crafting a range of

    beautifully designed products at affordable prices

    to enhance your home. Our designs have beenfeatured in magazines such as Elle Decoration and

    Living etc.

    We are passionate about making quality British

    designs affordable for many. Our teams of

    designers are hard at work producing everything

    from dinnerware and glasses to tables and sofas

    and not a flat-pack in sight.

    As we approach our 150th anniversary, were

    looking to expand our business beyond our British

    shores and bring our beautiful designs to the US

    through your local stores and online.

    Welcome to Ashwood.

    Rather than running a field experiment including real brand

    Facebook pages, we chose the boundaries of a controlled

    lab experiment, run on Amazon Mechanical Turk. The

    greater control offered by the experiment is traded off

    against external validity (the extent to which the results

    are applicable outside the experiment in the real world).

    Despite this, we attempted to make the experiment as

    realistic as possible, by creating a fictional premise that

    we were conducting market research. This allowed us

    to understand the cause and effect relationship between

    Facebook Likes and a variety of brand perception variables.

    The study created a new brand named Ashwood

    Furnishings along with a storyline about their expansion

    from the UK to the US on the occasion of their 150th

    anniversary. Participants were asked to provide their views

    on the brand based on its Facebook page, to help it make

    the transition to the US market.

    est

    . 1 8 6 4Figure 1: Background Information and Logo of Ashwood

    Furnishings provided to every participant

    Approach

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    Results Highlights

    The experiment substantiated our hypothesis: It showed a statistically significant

    relationship between the number of fans respondents believed the brand to

    have, and how positively they answered the questions relating to the brand.

    1. FACEBOOK LIKES IMPACT ON BRAND PERCEPTION

    Facebook Likes influence consumers in their responses to the questions in

    significant ways. If we split the conditions into small, medium and high numbers

    of Likes, then we see clear patterns of higher Likes leading to higher positiveendorsements on the brands on many different characteristics.

    3.70

    3.80

    4.00

    4.10

    3.90

    4.20

    4.30

    1.00 2.00 3.00

    MeanIwouldconsiderpurchasing

    productsfromA

    shFurn

    Condition variable into small, medium and high

    Figure 2: Chart showing overall correlation between number of Likes and positive perceptions of brand

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    Results Highlights

    2. PERCEIVED POPULARITY IMPROVES PERCEPTION

    ON THE STATEMENTS THAT MATTER

    The most significant relationships existed with six of

    the statements that would perhaps matter the most to

    marketing teams. These statements represent important

    signals from customers. We can see them as sitting along

    a spectrum of intensity towards the brand, suggesting that

    a brands popularity on Facebook can impact on a users

    intent towards a brand at quite a deep level.

    Interest -I have a strong interest in this brand

    Trust -I trust this brand

    Consideration - I would consider purchasing this brand

    Preference -This brand would be my first choice

    Advocacy -I would encourage friends to buy this brand

    Value - This brand could become very important to me

    3.70

    3.80

    4.00

    4.10

    3.90

    4.20

    4.30

    1.00 2.00 3.00

    MeanIwouldconsiderpu

    rchasing

    productsfromA

    shFurn

    Condition variable into small, medium and high

    3.00

    3.20

    3.40

    3.60

    3.80

    1.00 2.00 3.00

    MeanLO1.

    Icouldseemyse

    lfbeingloyal

    Condition variable into small, medium and high

    -0.05000

    0.05000

    0.10000

    0.15000

    0.20000

    1.00 2.00 3.00

    MeanZscore(mbe_

    perceived_

    quality)

    Condition variable into small, medium and high

    0.00000

    2.80

    3.00

    3.20

    3.40

    1.00 2.00 3.00

    MeanAshFurncouldbecomeveryimportanttome

    Condition variable into small, medium and high

    Figure 3: Charts showing correlation between number of Likes and specific positive brand perceptions

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    Results Highlights

    3. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FACEBOOK LIKES

    AND BRAND PERCEPTION MAY BE SUBJECT TO

    DIMINISHING RETURNS

    With so many questions and quite a wide distribution of

    data, we wanted to see if consolidating the data would

    demonstrate a clearer trend at population level.

    We aggregated the six statements that showed the

    most significant correlations with Facebook Likes, and

    we grouped the 12 different factors into three clusters

    of respondents who were shown Low, Medium and High

    numbers of Likes.

    This helps us see a clear overall trend. Facebook Likes do

    help improve brand perceptions. While this trend is very

    steep as Likes increase from a Low to a Medium level, it

    tails off significantly between Medium and High.

    At a population level, the study showed that more Likes

    didnt deliver a proportionate level of increased positive

    perception.

    A key aim of the experiment was to find out the level of

    diminishing returns to Facebook Likes (to decide when

    investing is worthwhile, and when it is not). Although clear

    differences exist between Low Likes and High Likes (see

    Figure 4) the data does not provide a clear picture for

    all the conditions in-between, meaning answering this

    question is difficult.

    This difficulty arose because participants responses tothe questions were highly variable, meaning participants

    generally gave very different responses to the questions,

    regardless of how many Likes they were exposed to. It

    is apparent that consumers have subjective and diverse

    opinions on brands based on Facebook Likes. This

    variability is to be somewhat expected in a between-

    subjects design.

    Running a multi-varient analysis of varience with all

    dependant variables (i.e. questions) and condition

    as IV (i.e. the 12 different categories of number of

    Likes) showed significant difference for condition at

    p

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    Results Highlights

    MeanAshFurncouldbecome

    veryimportanttome

    4.00

    3.60

    3.40

    3.20

    3.00

    1 2 1 54 8 73 1 70 0 1 3 00 0 2 20 00 7 80 00 89 00 0 2 . 4m 2 .8 m 8 .6 m 9 .2 m

    Condition

    Error Bars: 95% CI

    In this example, there is a clear difference between lower

    numbers of Likes (left) and higher (right).

    However, in-between these two is a lot of variability and

    few decisive patterns.

    Due to the messiness of the data from individual questions,

    we decided to run a factor analysis (reducing the amount

    of data into fewer super-categories). A factor analysis is

    a statistical technique used to compress a wide range

    of data points into fewer data points with as little loss in

    information as possible. In a factor analysis, dependent

    variables (i.e. what was measured) that share variability.This means that we tried to group those questions together

    that changed similarly as the number of Facebook Likes

    changed. Factor analysis is especially useful in a dataset

    that is overall rather messy, especially as it can show

    linkages between questions as well as disassociations

    between one set of questions and another. Moreover, the

    question-categories created usually have a lower overall

    variability, which facilitates follow-on statistical analysis .

    The first factor, which included the participants responses

    about Loyalty, Preference for Ashwood Furnishings and

    Purchasing Intention, explained over 30% of the overall

    variance, and so is a good proxy for the overall results.

    This factor overall shows a significant difference across

    the condition p=0.036. So, even when we reduce the

    variability considerably, Facebook Likes are still important.

    When we graphically represent Factor 1, across low,

    medium and high Facebook Likes, we see that there is a

    big jump from small (thousands or less) to medium (tens ofthousands). After that there is a much smaller difference

    between tens of thousands and millions.

    EXAMPLE ASHWOOD FURNISHINGS COULD

    BECOME VERY IMPORTANT TO ME

    These graphs show the general trend at a detailed level

    of how the largest jump in consumers responses to the

    brand are usually at the beginning of the Likes distribution(0-2000), and dont consistently jump thereafter.

    Figure 5: Graph showing perceptions of Loyalty to

    brand according to number of page Likes

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    Results Highlights

    MeanAW

    2.Icanquickly

    recallthe

    symbolorlogo

    3.501.00

    Condition variable into small, medium and high

    3.55

    3.65

    3.70

    2.00 3.00

    3.60

    3.75

    MeanIwou

    ldconsiderpurchasing

    produ

    ctsfromAshFurn

    5.00

    4.50

    4.00

    3.50

    3.001 2 1 54 8 73 1 70 0 1 3 00 0 22 00 0 78 00 0 89 00 0 2 . 4m 2 .8 m 8 .6 m 9 .2 m

    Condition

    Error Bars: 95% CI

    Mean

    ItrushAshFurn

    3.60

    3.90

    3.30

    3.00

    2.70

    2.40

    2.10

    1 2 1 54 8 73 1 70 0 1 30 00 22 00 0 78 00 0 89 00 0 2 . 4m 2 .8 m 8 .6 m 9 .2 m

    Condition

    Error Bars: 95% CI

    4.20

    MeanAshFurnisanhonestbrand

    4.00

    3.80

    3.60

    3.40

    3.20

    3.001 2 1 54 8 73 1 70 0 1 3 00 0 22 00 0 78 00 0 89 00 0 2 . 4m 2 .8 m 8 .6 m 9 .2 m

    Condition

    Error Bars: 95% CI

    Figure 6: Graphs showing perceptions of other positive qualities of brand according to number of page Likes

    4. FACEBOOK LIKES ACT AS UNCONSCIOUS CUES

    FOR USERS

    We know from existing behavioural science studies that

    people are influenced by thousands of unconscious

    cues every day. Our brains use shortcuts also known

    as heuristics that make manageable the numerous

    decisions we constantly make.

    Our experiment was designed to test whether Facebook

    Likes might act as one of these cues.

    Since respondents knew nothing of the brand other

    than the short biography they had been shown, Likes

    are the only variable that might be affecting the results.

    (SeeFigure 9, in Appendix)

    We also surveyed respondents immediately after showing

    them the test stimulus.

    This suggests that Likes generate an unconscious and

    immediate effect, similar to any number of cues in the

    real world. We can conclude that offline human behaviour

    translates into online social networking behaviour in direct

    ways that, through appropriate interventions, can be

    manipulated to yield measurable effects.

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    Results Highlights

    5. DIFFERENT TYPES OF USER SHOWED DIFFERENT

    EFFECTS

    One of the most clear variances from the overall population

    level trend was seen when we compared people who use

    Facebook frequently and for long periods (High users) with

    people who are less active on the platform (Low users).

    High Facebook users were more likely to be more positive

    respondents overall. Interestingly, they were also more

    likely to be more positively affected by high numbers of

    Likes than Low users.

    This graph summarises the relationship. High numbers of

    Likes influence high-users of Facebook more. Low users

    are not any more influenced once you get to Medium

    number of Likes on a page.

    High users are less likely to be subject to the diminishing

    returns relationship we showed in finding 3.

    3.30

    Low

    Facebook Likes

    3.40

    3.60

    3.70

    Medium High

    3.50

    3.80

    Facebook Use

    Low

    High

    Figure 7: Graph showing level of Facebook usage

    against overall positive perceptions of brand

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    INFLUENCING OFFLINE BEHAVIOURS

    We can conclude from this lab-style experiment that Facebook Likes matter. The

    results demonstrate that the phenomenon of herding, described in behavioural

    economics for offline behaviour, also applies in the case of Facebook Likes to

    online behaviour. This raises the question of what other facets of behaviour

    change expertise may be applied to the online realm. What markers may be

    found for these and how they might form part of a new system for online

    marketing that has a robust methodology for measuring the effect of marketing

    interventions.

    A next phase to this research will identify the influence on actual behaviours,

    such as signing up to an email list and actual purchasing of goods, rather than

    only the users perceptions of a given brand after exposure to their Facebook

    page. Ideally, it would not be a lab-style experiment but a test in the public

    realm and even using a known brand. This will rule out the problems with

    the lab conditions themselves affecting the results, and have more exciting

    implications for the use of behavioural thinking in the world of social media.

    THE BUSINESS CASE

    Now that we know Facebook Likes contribute in a measurable, significant way to

    the herding effects that create perceptions around a brand, it is time to further

    interrogate this behavioural journey.

    We always guessed that a Low number of Likes will create poorer brand

    perceptions compared to a High number, but we now know that there are

    diminishing returns over all. We have also discovered that it is a different picture

    for High versus Low Facebook users. For example, for Low users, it seems that

    there is a really interesting moment when the positive effect of Facebook Likes

    levels off after a certain number of Likes higher than medium is reached. That

    magic number - the minimum number of Likes needed to influence Low social

    media users to think more positively about your brand - is a potentially exciting

    and useful new marketing product. The process by which this magic number is

    arrived at will require further research that takes into account sector, brand and

    what we want people to do after they have been exposed to the page.

    On a business level, we can conclude that it is worthwhile for brands to spend

    money on promoting social media pages early in their marketing plan and, once

    a certain threshold of Likes has been reached, not continuing to invest heavily.

    We consider this study to be a step towards being able to formally advise brands

    on what the business case is for allocating and apportioning their social media

    spend; what they stand to get from it and where there is space for robust return

    versus innovation in how they market their products.

    Conclusion

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    FUTURE RESEARCH

    We wish to take a broader view of social media use and other factors that

    affect unconscious behaviour while browsing online to flesh out this enquiry.

    Likes are just part of the picture and there is a question mark over authenticity

    here; Facebook Likes can be purchased in bulk and manipulated by marketers

    with ease if they are willing to spend that money. What about the quality of

    Facebook Likes? What is the effect when a brand is recommended by a friend

    or you can see that a number of your Facebook friends already Like a given

    brand? The role of messenger is likely to be powerful and will have a different

    resonance for better known and less known brands. For which of these will

    there a stronger positive effect on brand perceptions? We can easily guess the

    outcome here, but how can we measure when in the brands journey the pace

    of change diminishes? What is the story here for different types of user?

    The effects of marketing interventions on High users of social media are likely

    to be very different to Low users and what types of social media audience are

    most effectively targeted with different styles of marketing intervention is a

    worthwhile area for future research.

    We look forward to partnering with curious marketers in exploring and expanding

    this new learning, and invite further discussion with a purpose to conduct a

    series of real world brand specific trials over the forthcoming months. For

    anyone interested in exploring this with us, please contact us via the details at

    the back of this paper.

    Conclusion

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    Appendix: Experimental Design

    The study employed 600 participants in the United States.

    Each participant was given the exact same information: the

    brand, logo, story, and Facebook page were all identical.

    The only difference was in the number of Likes they were

    presented with, 12 categories ranging from 12 to 9.2

    million Likes. This approach allowed us to ensure any

    differences found between groups were purely because

    on the number of Likes they saw, and not anything else.

    Participants were then asked a series of questions

    related to the brand, based on what they had seen from

    the Facebook page, including questions such as I would

    consider purchasing products from Ashwood Furnishings

    and I would say positive things about Ashwood Furnishings

    to other people.

    Figure 9: Examples of Facebook pages with alteration in the number of Likes according to group condition

    12 154 873 1700 13000 22000 78000 89000 2.4m 2.8m 8.6m 9.2m

    Figure 8: Number of Likes presented to participants per condition

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    Appendix: Experimental Design

    REAL LIFE PURCHASE BEHAVIOUR

    The study attempted to move beyond just asking about

    peoples intentions to buy and attitudes towards the

    brand, but to also see if we could find differences in their

    real life behaviour following the study.

    Participants were asked to enter their email address

    in order to receive a voucher code for a discount off

    Ashwood Furnishings when it arrived in the US market.

    The number of people entering their email addresses was

    recorded. Specially designed emails were then sent out

    to participants 48 hours later, containing unique links

    which could be tracked via Google Analytics, to measure

    differences in the number of people who clicked through

    to the link.

    To our valued future customers!

    Many thanks for recently signing up to receive

    voucher codes from Ashwood Furnishings.

    This is such an important time for our company -

    having begun building furniture as a family business

    all the way back in 1864, we are so excited at the

    chance to bring our unique style along with our

    affordable prices to the US market, and we are

    sure our range of home ware and furnishings will

    be as popular here as they are in the UK.

    Please click on the link below for your unique

    voucher code for money off your first order with us!

    Its our way of saying thank you for your interest.

    We very much hope to see you in our stores or

    online soon.

    Kind Regards,

    The Ashwood Furnishings Team!

    DEBRIEF

    Thank you for your interest in Ashwood

    Furnishings. We are sorry to let you know thatAshwood Furnishings is not a real company. It

    was set up as part of an academic study into the

    impact of Facebook Likes on consumer decision

    making. We greatly appreciate you taking part in

    our study on m-turk, and this email was a follow

    up to that study. We used the offer of a voucher

    code to assess how interested participants were

    in the company Facebook page you viewed. If

    you have any concerns or questions regarding

    the study, please email****************** at*******.********@googlemail.com.

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    Appendix: Experimental Design

    RIGOROUS SELECTION PROCESS

    Every effort was made to ensure that the participants we were using on

    Amazon Mechanical Turk were reliable and relevant for our study. This selection

    process was done in two stages.

    Firstly, various criteria were set before people could sign up to the study. They

    had to be: based in the US, have a full or part-time job, and be experienced with

    tasks on Amazon Mechanical Turk. Moreover, we preferred English to be their

    first language (587/600 met this condition).

    Secondly, we had to make sure that participants were completing the

    study properly, and giving it proper care and consideration. Therefore, we

    had stringent checks in place to filter out those who did not engage fully.

    Participants were asked three questions:

    How many comments were on the Facebook page?

    What was the anniversary date being celebrated by Ashwood Furnishings?

    How many Likes were there on the previous page?

    The criteria for using a participants responses was that they had to answer 2out of 3 questions correct (the possibility of answering these two by chance

    is less than 5%). Following this process of filtering, we were left with 383

    responses to analyse. The attrition rate was similar across conditions (no

    systematic differences), with participants per condition ranged from 25 to 43.

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    Appendix: Methodology

    HOW DID WE SELECT THE QUESTIONS FOR THE STUDY?

    We consulted the following study as it presents a reasonable

    proxy for what we are interested in investigating:

    Developing and validating a multidimensional consumer-

    based brand equity scale.

    Boonghee Yooa and Naveen Donthub (2001). Journal of

    Business Research.

    http://people.hofstra.edu/Boonghee_Yoo/papers/2001_

    JBR_Brand_Equity_Scale.pdf

    This is an influential paper, cited over 780 times. The

    scope of the study was as follows:

    A multi-step study to develop and validate a

    multidimensional consumer-based brand equity scale (MBE)

    drawn from Aakers and Kellers conceptualizations of

    brand equity. A total of 1530 American, Korean American,

    and Korean participants evaluated 12 brands from three

    product categories (athletic shoes, film for cameras,

    and color television sets). Multi-step psychometric tests

    demonstrate that the new brand equity scale is reliable,

    valid, parsimonious, and generalizable across several

    cultures and product categories.

    The fact the questions have already been validated (i.e.

    shown to work) in different countries is helpful to us,

    as we are hoping to demonstrate that our study has

    meaning outside the US where our study was conducted.

    The present research went above and beyond Yooa &

    Donthub (2001), who used these questions in various

    sub-categories, and tailored their questionnaire for our

    particular research agenda.

    Figure 10: Effects Sizes and individual significance tests

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    Appendix: Methodology

    Other questions were also asked but which did not show significant results.

    EFFECT SIZES PARTIAL ETA SQUARED

    Were the effects sizes we found large or small?

    Small: >0.01; Medium: >0.06; Large: >0.14

    In Cohens terminology, a small effect size is one in which there is a real effect

    -- i.e., something is really happening in the world -- but which you can only seethrough careful study. A large effect size is an effect which is big enough, and/

    or consistent enough, that you may be able to see it with the naked eye, one

    which is very substantial.

    Several of the significant questions were around medium effect sizes. This is

    likely to have occurred as our study was a lab study. In real life, consumers

    would spend longer on Facebook pages, take them more seriously because

    theyre real, and wed expect the effects therefore to be larger in field trials.

    WHAT ABOUT THE QUESTIONS THAT WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT?

    The reasoning behind the non-significant results:

    Our choice of master Amazon workers who had already completed at least

    1000 HITs. Hence, we didnt get many nave participants

    The tiny difference in things we changed. Out of an entire page array and text

    presentation, we changed just the number of Likes, a tiny detail

    The huge variability in participants, due to prior dispositions to Facebook,

    preferences for furniture sales etc.

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    Appendix: Real World Action

    Our call to action described under Approach, where we sent voucher codes

    to all participants and asked them to click through to a link, was not successful.

    Ideally, we would have seen more numbers of click throughs in conditions with

    higher Facebook Likes.

    The problem was that too few participants clicked through to our link (e.g. 5

    in 47 in Condition 2). With so few people clicking through, it is not possible to

    make meaningful comparisons between the groups.

    One explanation for this may have been that participants knew they were taking

    part in a lab experiment, despite our efforts to mask it as market research, and

    so provided fake email addresses to us, or ignored emails related to the task.

    Another explanation is that our emails could have been filtered into peoples

    junk folders (though in pre-testing we made efforts to make sure this wouldnt

    happen). However, perhaps no such explanations are needed when we consider

    that many direct marketing campaigns have response rates below 5%.

    It is always risky to try to bridge real life with a laboratory experiment. In

    future experiments, we should make sure the test uses real consumers, either

    through a partnering website, or directly through social media.

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    Contributors

    With special thanks to

    Joe Gladstone PhD Researcher in Behavioural Economics,

    University of Cambridge Judge Business School

    Jon Jachimowicsz PhD Researcher in Behavioural Economics,

    University of Cambridge Judge Business School

    Mark Cross Senior Partner, Equal

    Stephen Donajgrodzki Senior Partner, Equal

    Ed Hartigan Head of Social, iProspect

    James Caig Head of Social Strategy, Isobar

    Nick Siantonas Behavioural Strategist, Isobar

    Ian Edwards Managing Partner - Head of Strategy, Vizeum

    Richard Morris Managing Director, Vizeum

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