the scottish question, six months on - blogs · 3/27/2015 · the scottish question, six months on...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Scottish Question, Six Months OnAilsa Henderson and James Mitchell
University of Edinburgh
Transatlantic Seminar Series27 March, 2015
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What do we know about referendums?
• Limited theorising of referendum preferences (Hobolt)• Often take place in low cue, low information environments (Franklin;
Hobolt) but variation (Leduc; deVreese and Semetko)• Self-determination referendums an exception
• High cue, high information environments• Emotive, binary issue• Raises the stakes for losers’ consent
• So not one ‘Scottish question’, but three• Who voted No and who voted Yes?• Did the campaign matter?• What are the implications of the referendum vote for Scottish public life?
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Scottish Referendum Study• ESRC funded (Ailsa Henderson, Rob Johns, Chris Carman, James
Mitchell)• Question completion for waves 1 and 2• 3 wave internet survey, fieldwork YouGov (split sample BES, SES)
• Wave 1: 22 August-17 September (rolling cross section)• Wave 2: 22 -26 September (small and large questionnaire)• Wave 3: March 2015
• Sample size wave 1: 4849• Sample size wave 2: 3719 (across 2 surveys)
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1. Who voted No (and who voted Yes)?
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Demographics I
46.8%
56.6%
45.9%
81.6%
44.0%
59.1%
51.3%
47.3%
72.1%
57.1%
53.2%
43.4%
54.1%
18.4%
56.0%
40.9%
48.7%
52.7%
27.9%
42.9%
MEN
WOMEN
NONE
CHURCH OF ENGLAND
CATHOLIC
PROTESTANT
OTHER
SCOTLAND
RUK
OUK
SEX
RELI
G D
ENO
MBI
RTH
PL
ACE
No Yes
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Demographics: Age
46.0%
46.1%
49.4%
52.9%
56.3%
65.7%
54.0%
53.9%
50.6%
47.1%
43.7%
34.3%
16-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70+
No Yes
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Demographics: How younger people voted
37.5%
48.6%
44.8%
46.1%
49.4%
52.9%
56.3%
65.7%
62.5%
51.4%
55.2%
53.9%
50.6%
47.1%
43.7%
34.3%
16-19
20-24
25-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70+
No Yes
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Demographics II
53.2%
55.5%
57.6%
43.6%
52.3%
52.9%
38.1%
64.6%
58.3%
46.4%
46.8%
44.5%
42.4%
56.4%
47.7%
47.1%
61.9%
35.4%
41.7%
53.6%
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
NO DEGREE
DEGREE
SOCIAL RENTER
OWNER-OCCUPIER
MIDDLE
WORKING
INCO
ME
QU
ART
ILES
EDU
CAT
ION
TEN
URE
CLA
SS
No Yes
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National identity and Leadership
7.6%
36.1%
79.1%
11.4%
39.6%
81.4%
87.6%
90.0%
92.4%
63.9%
20.9%
88.6%
60.4%
18.6%
12.4%
10.0%
7-10
4-6
0-3
SCOTTISH NOT BRITISH
MORE SCOTTISH THAN BRITISH
EQUALLY SCOTTISH AND BRITISH
MORE BRITISH THAN SCOTTISH
BRITISH NOT SCOTTISH
LIKE
SA
LMO
ND
NAT
ION
AL
IDEN
TITY
No Yes
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Perceived costs of a “No” vote
9.9%
31.3%
73.3%
90.0%
88.9%
12.2%
49.3%
79.5%
94.0%
81.8%
90.1%
68.7%
26.7%
10.0%
11.1%
87.8%
50.7%
20.5%
6.0%
18.2%
VERY LIKELY
LIKELY
NEITHER LIKELY NOR UNLIKELY
UNLIKELY
VERY UNLIKELY
VERY LIKELY
LIKELY
NEITHER LIKELY NOR UNLIKELY
UNLIKELY
VERY UNLIKELY
IF U
NIO
N:
SPEN
DIN
G C
UTS
IF U
NIO
N: W
EATH
G
AP
No Yes
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Perceived costs of a “Yes” vote
9.7%
22.8%
47.1%
84.8%
95.0%
9.3%
38.4%
66.1%
95.6%
96.3%
90.3%
77.2%
52.9%
15.2%
5.0%
90.7%
61.6%
33.9%
4.4%
3.7%
VERY LIKELY
LIKELY
NEITHER LIKELY NOR UNLIKELY
UNLIKELY
VERY UNLIKELY
VERY LIKELY
LIKELY
NEITHER LIKELY NOR UNLIKELY
UNLIKELY
VERY UNLIKELY
IF IN
DEP
END
ENCE
: EU
MEM
BERS
HIP
IF IN
DEP
END
ENT:
KE
EP P
OU
ND
No Yes
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Modelling vote choice after the referendum
-.186.481
-.258-1.014
.066-.585
.195-.559
-.579-.971
.087-.472
.000.036
-1.200 -1.000 -.800 -.600 -.400 -.200 .000 .200 .400 .600
Highest income quartileLowest income quartile
Other ReligionChurch of England
CatholicProtestant
Social renterOwner-occupier
oUKrUK
DegreeFemale
Age squareAge
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2. Did the campaign matter?
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How might we evaluate the impact of the campaign?
• Timing of decision to vote• Vote switching• High levels of knowledge and engagement• Citing campaign issues/events in reasons for voting Yes or No
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Capacity for campaign influence: Boredom, then excitement
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Timing of vote decision
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
I’ve known all along how I would
vote
Once thereferendum date
was announced (inMarch 2013)
A year or so ago A few months ago During the last fewweeks
I haven’t decided yet
No Yes
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Vote switching
• Very few in dataset• 48 from Yes to No• 45 from No to Yes
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Impact of the debates
64.4
29.1
5.11.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Didn't have any impact - my mind wasalready made up
Made me think but didn't change mymind
Got me seriously thinking abou theother side
Changed my mind completely
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The Vow: More likely to expect further devolution?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4More powers likely more powers unlikely
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Impact of campaign on vote choice (SRS week 1)
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Better offRich gap smaller
Join EUKeep pound
Economy worseIF YES:
Rich gap widerMore powers
If NO:Scottish not British
Certainty consequencesSocial housing
FemalePresbyterian
Age
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Impact of campaign on vote choice (SRS weeks 1 & 4)
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Better offRich gap smaller
Join EUKeep pound
Economy worseIF YES:
Rich gap widerMore powers
If NO:Scottish not British
Certainty consequencesSocial housing
FemalePresbyterian
Age
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Stated reasons for voting No (SRS w2 n=421)
29.527.8
26.3
5.3 5.23.4 2.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Because I feel Britishand believe in the
Union
Beause there were toomany unasnwered
questions
Because independencewould have madeScotland worse off
economically
I wanted to vote 'Yes'but in the end it
seemed a bit too risky
Because I don't trustAlex Salmond
Because Scotland isgoing to get the extrapowers I want anyway
Something else/don'tknow
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Stated reasons for voting Yes (SRS w2, n=389)
24.8 24.1
21.820.1
2.91.7
4.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
So that Scotlandalways gets the
governments it votesfor
Because the wholeWestminster system is
rotten
Because independenceis the natural state ofnations like Scotland
Because it would havemade Scotland better
off economically
Because of the currentcoalition government
at Westminster
Because it would havehelped to protect
public services
Something else/don'tknow
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Reasons for switching from No to Yes (SRS w2, n=40)• Anything to do with lack of trust in Westminster/Tories/UKIP 44%
• “I do not trust Westminster (and I’m English)”• “The last minute promises that came from Westminster didn’t sit well with
me and I feel it was unconstitutional to change the goalposts so late in the after a two year campaign”
• Negativity of no side 29%• “Scaremongering by No campaign”
• Change/make a difference/social democracy 15%• Once in a lifetime opportunity for me and my family”
• Other 6%
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Reasons for switching from Yes to No (SRS w2, n=41)• Economic risk/uncertainty 48%
• “My pension, I wanted to be sure that I was safe”
• Other Risk/uncertainty 18%• “Decided was too great a risk. Heart said yes but head said No”
• Promise of more powers 10%• “The promise of devo max which is a transition to home rule”
• Alex Salmond/Aggressive nature of Yes campaign 10%• “The ‘Yes’ campaign was alarmingly dishonest and aggressive”
• Other 15%
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Some voters hold different people responsible for the fact that the Yes side lost the election. What about you? Which of the following do you think is most responsible for the fact that the Yes side lost?
41.3
17
11.8 11.27.9
0.9
4.7 5.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
The Westminsterleaders for
misleading votersabout more powers
The press/BBC forbias towards No
The Scottishelectorate for losing
its nerve
The banks andother businesses
for warning aboutthe consequences
of a Yes
Better Together fora negativecampaign
Yes Scotland for apoor camapign
Other reason Don't know/none
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3. What are the implications of the referendum vote for public life?
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How might we evaluate the implications?
• Losers’ consent• Elevated levels of public engagement
• Political interest• Political participation
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Losers’ consent (3 day rolling average)
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Losers’ consent (II)
312 15
8
15
46
55
4727
27
16
2749
10 8 13
6 5 6 5
0%
50%
100%
Yes No Yes No
Satisfaction with UK democracy Satisfaction with Scottish democracy
Don't know
Very dissatisfied
Little dissatisfied
Fairly satisfied
Very satisfied
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Losers’ consent vs winners’ consent
-1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50
Male (women)
Age (0-1)
Univ degree (non)
Income (0-1)
Left-Right (0-1)
Loser UK (winner)
Yes vote (no)
Lab-Cons-LibDem (SNP)
Happy result (0-1)
Pol efficacy (0-1)
Satisfaction with Democracy in Scotland
In red, statisticallly significant at 90%
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Political interest (pre referendum)
6.57.1
5.6
8.4
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
UK politics Scottish politics International politics Referendum
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Levels of political interest over the course of the campaign
6.36.9
8.1
6.57.0
8.2
6.67.3
8.6
6.57.3
8.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
UK politics Scottish politics Referendum
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
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12.40%
50.60%
23.50%
13.40%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
I haven’t noticed it making any difference to anyone
I’ve noticed others getting more involved but it hasn’t made any difference to me
It’s got me a bit more involved
It’s got me a lot more involved
This question is about the effect of the referendum campaign on the Scottish public’s involvement and interest in politics. Which of these statements best
describes your own situation?
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14.8%
60.6%
18.9%
5.8%9.8%
39.9%
28.6%21.8%
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%
I haven’t noticed it making any difference
to anyone
I’ve noticed others getting more involved but it hasn’t made any
difference to me
It’s got me a bit more involved
It’s got me a lot more involved
This question is about the effect of the referendum campaign on the Scottish public’s involvement and interest in politics. Which of these
statements best describes your own situation?
No Yes
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54.00%
40.80%
36.80%
49.00%
9.20%
10.10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yourself
The Scottish public
What do you think will happen to levels of political involvement –both your own and in the Scottish public as a whole – once the
referendum is over?
Will stay more involved Will go back to normal Don’t know
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31.9%
65.7%
16.7%
53.6%
57.6%
25.8%
71.5%
37.1%
10.5%
8.5%
11.8%
9.3%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0%
No
Yes
No
Yes
Your
self
The
Scot
tish
publ
icWhat do you think will happen to levels of political involvement – both your
own and in the Scottish public as a whole – once the referendum is over?
Will stay more involved Will go back to normal Don’t know
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Extra data
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What do Scots want?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Power over new policy areas More power over existing areas More influence over centraldecision making
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