the seat to vote ratio- voter turnout & gerrymandering
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
THE SEAT TO VOTE RATIOVOTER TURNOUT & GERRYMANDERINGOF THE OHIO HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
![Page 2: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
1.BACKGROUND
![Page 3: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
THE PROBLEMA discrepancy exists between the share of seats won and the share of votes cast for either party in the Ohio House by Ohio voters
![Page 7: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
THE ASSUMPTIONThe act of “gerrymandering” is the main cause of this discrepancy between votes and seats
![Page 8: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
“To manipulate the boundaries of an electoral constituency to favor one party through partisan control of the redistricting process
![Page 9: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
HOW CAN WE MEASURE IT?
▸ Seat to Vote Ratio▸ Percent total seats won / percent total
votes cast for a certain party in a particular election
▸ The further from 1.00, the less accurately voter preferences are represented by the election results
![Page 10: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
WHAT HAS OHIO DONE ABOUT IT?
Pre-November 2015
▸ Ohio Apportionment Board (OBA)
▸ 5 members: Governor, Secretary of State, State Auditor, 1 member appointed by each of the 2 major parties
▸ Resulted in 1 minority party member (at current partisan composition of state government)
November 2015-present
▸ Ohio Bipartisan Redistricting Commission Amendment (OBRCA)
▸ 7 members: Governor, Secretary of State, State Auditor, 2 members appointed by each of the 2 major parties
▸ Results in 2 minority party members (at current partisan makeup of state government)
![Page 11: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
OBRCA REQUIRES NEW GUIDELINES
▸ 2 members from each party must agree to the plan
▸ Compact, contiguous districts▸ Districts cannot be strategically drawn
to favor one party over another▸ Minimize splitting up cities, counties,
etc
![Page 12: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
WHAT IS OBRCA DESIGNED TO DO?
▸ Decrease partisan bias in the redistricting process
▸ Encourage split party control of the process
▸ E.g. lower the seat to vote ratio
![Page 13: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
“If this passes, the result will be legislative districts that are more competitive and fair. It won’t be perfect. Perfect isn’t possible. A number of districts still will be lopsided, but there will be noticeable improvement overall.
Curt Steiner, CEO of Steiner Public Relations
![Page 14: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
SO WILL IT WORK?
▸ Literature suggests even more stringent redistricting reforms only minimally reduce the seat to vote ratio
▸ Even states with independent redistricting commissions still experience noncompetitive elections, high incumbency reelection rates, & low voter turnout
▸ Ex. California’s Citizens Redistricting Commission
![Page 15: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
“Unfortunately, the literature generally indicates that redistricting reforms, including independent redistricting commissions, have only small impacts on electoral outcomes.
FairVote, formerly the Center for Voting and Democracy
![Page 16: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
IS THERE MORE TO IT?Higher voter turnout, combined with bipartisan redistricting, results in a much greater change in the seat to vote ratio
![Page 17: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
2.DATA & METHODOLOGY
![Page 18: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
THE HYPOTHESISWhen voter turnout is higher and there is split party control of the redistricting process, the seat to vote ratio should be closer to 1.00
![Page 19: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
THE DATA
▸ All data from the Ohio Secretary of State’s Office
▸ House election results from 1972-2014▸ Seat to vote ratio calculated by summing
the total seats won and total votes cast for the Republican Party in each of Ohio’s 99 House districts for each general election from 1972 to 2014
▸ Ohio voter turnout counts from 1978-2014
![Page 20: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
THE METHOD
▸ Compare the voter turnout and the seat to vote ratio between 1978-2014
▸ Analyze key years ▹ Look for high/low voter turnout and
compare to seat to vote ratio▹ Consider the partisan control of the
redistricting process
![Page 21: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
3.ANALYSIS& RESULTS
![Page 24: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
KEY ANALYSIS
1992
Highest voter turnout ever recorded in Ohio. New map drawn by split party state government control takes effect. Seat to vote ratio in 1992 is 0.98.
1992-2002
Same map in effect. Voter turnout begins to decrease. Despite no change in the map from 1992, seat to vote ratio begins to increase beyond 1.00 in this period, from 1.03 to 1.12.
2002-2012
New maps drawn with more GOP control. Voter turnout continues to decline, seat to vote increasing. Seat to vote ratio recorded furthest from 1.00 ever in 2012 at 1.23.
![Page 26: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
OVERALL RESULT
Decreased voter turnout benefits the party in control of the redistricting process; lower voter turnout pulls the ratio away from 1.00
![Page 27: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
DATA ANALYSIS IMPLICATIONS
▸ Changing the partisan composition of redistricting process can have impact
▸ But voter turnout still influences it greatly regardless
![Page 28: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
THE ASSUMPTION IS INCORRECTGerrymandering & the redistricting process don’t solely determine seat to vote ratio; voter turnout influences it greatly and perhaps even more
![Page 29: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
4.ALTERNATIVES
![Page 30: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
EVALUATING ALTERNATIVES
Goals
Limit partisan bias +
Facilitate split party control ++
Raise voter turnout +++
Criteria
Efficiency +
Political feasibility ++
Effectiveness +++
![Page 31: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
3 ALTERNATIVES TO CONSIDER
#1 Ohio Bipartisan Redistricting Commission Amendment
Status quo; creates Ohio Redistricting Commission comprised of elected officials
#2 Independent Redistricting Commission
Upgrade Ohio Redistricting Commission to be comprised of citizens, not elected officials
#3 Automatic Voter Registration & Mail-in Voting
Automatically register voters who get driver’s licenses; create secure vote-by-mail system
![Page 32: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
5.RECOMMENDATION
![Page 33: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
“Unfortunately, the literature generally indicates that redistricting reforms, including independent redistricting commissions, have only small impacts on electoral outcomes.
FairVote, formerly the Center for Voting and Democracy
![Page 34: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
THE SOLUTION ISVOTER TURNOUTWe can overcome the redistricting reform challenge by also increasing voter turnout; OBRCA based on incorrect assumption
![Page 35: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
AUTOMATIC VOTER REGISTRATION & MAIL-IN VOTINGAutomatically register voters who get driver’s licenses; create secure vote-by-mail system
#3
![Page 36: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
WHY ALTERNATIVE #3?
▸ Major increase in voter turnout▹ Ex. Oregon vote-by-mail system
▸ As a result, data project a significant lowering of the seat to vote ratio even without redistricting reform
With the OBRCA already passed, this alternative overcomes the incorrect assumption that the OBRCA’s effect on partisan bias in the redistricting process is enough on its own
![Page 37: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS
Voter turnout above 55% for general elections (above 75% for presidential elections)
Partisan bias limited through OBRCA composition requirements and redistricting rules
Split party control facilitated by OBRCA requirements and by increased voter turnout
1.00
![Page 38: The Seat to Vote Ratio- Voter Turnout & Gerrymandering](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042707/58ecc3df1a28aba3708b4593/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
THE CONCLUSIONTo achieve the goals of the OBRCA, Ohio must enact policies to significantly increase and maintain high levels of voter turnout