The Seismic Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit: An Open-Source Library for the Construction of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Models

Graeme Weatherill1, Luis E. Rodríguez-Abreu2, Marco Pagani3

August 25th 2014, 2ECEES, Istanbul, Turkey

1 Hazard Scientist, Global Earthquake Model (GEM), Pavia, Italy, 2 PhD Student, Understanding & Managing Extremes (UME) School, Pavia, Italy3 Hazard Coordinator, Global Earthquake Model (GEM), Pavia, Italy

Ground motion prediction equations

The challenge to build seismic hazard models

Definition Seismic sources geometry

Processing Geologic InformationGeodetic DataSeismic Catalogues

Selection

Seismic hazard model

PSHA

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) has produced an open-source toolkit for

construction of seismogenic source models as input for PSHA.

The Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit, the GEM library for the creation of PSHA models

Seismic hazard model

SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

Hazard modeller’s toolkit

hazardlibnmrllib

Python 2.7 library

The Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit, a library for the creation of PSHA models

https://github.com/GEMScienceTools/hmtk https://github.com/GEMScienceTools/hmtk_docs

Public and available Documented

Under GNU Affero license

GEM-hmtk is an integrated visualization and analysis tool

HMTK

Modules with

methods and tools

Python

Interface(i.e. iPython Notebook)

Seismogenic

Model

hazardlibnmrllib

Seismicity tools

Data CataloguesArea source geometry

Methods

• Declustering• Completeness• Recurrence• Maximum magnitude

(statistics)

a and b-values, seismic ratesSeismic model

Seismicity tools

Data CataloguesRegion of interest

Methods• Declustering• Completeness• Smoothed seismicity

a-value, seismic ratesSeismic model

Seismicity tools

Sources

Catalogues

SourcesCatalogues

• Statistical analysis

• Parameters

estimation

Seismicity tools

Example: Estimation of b-value variation along South America using the hmtk

Slab1.0 (Hayes et al., 2012)

Flexibility to combine and explore data.

Geology tools

Active faults sourcesTectonic regionalization

Fault definition

Geology tools

Data Fault geometrySlip rate

Methods Recurrence methods

Magnitude Frequency distribution

Seismic model

• Youngs and Coppersmith (exponential)

Geology tools

Data Fault geometrySlip rate

Methods Recurrence methods

Magnitude Frequency distribution

Seismic model

• Youngs and Coppersmith (exponential)• Youngs and Coppersmith (hybrid)

Geology tools

Data Fault geometrySlip rate

Methods Recurrence methods

Magnitude Frequency distribution

• Youngs and Coppersmith (exponential)• Youngs and Coppersmith (hybrid)• Characteristic

Seismic model

Geology tools

Catalogue InstrumentalCatalogue HistoricalGeology

Seismicity

Geology tools

Recurrence methods

Magnitude Frequency distribution

Epistemic uncertainties in the fault modeling

• Slip rate• Magnitude scaling relation (SR)• Shear modulus • Displacement to length ratio • No. of standard deviation in the SR • Configuration of magnitude

frequency distribution

Catalogue InstrumentalCatalogue Historical

Logic three MFD1

MFD2

MFD3

Geodetic tools

Strain rate modelTectonic regionalization

Moment rate model

Kreemer et al., 2003; 2014

Geodetic tools

Data Strain rate modelTectonic regionalization

Methods Moment rate model

Activity ratesSeismic model

• Bird and Liu, 2007

Conclusions

Hazard modeller’s toolkit:

• Data integration

• Consistent with OQ-engine

• Understand the impact on the methods

• Makes the PSHA model building process more transparent and reproducible

Selection Ground motion prediction equationsStrong motion

toolkit

Strong Motion Toolkit

Strong Motion Toolkit

https://github.com/g-weatherill/gmpe-smtk https://github.com/g-weatherill/gmpe-smtk-docs

Strong Motion Toolkit: GMPE comparison

Strong Motion Toolkit

Includes:• Log-Likelihood (Scherbaum

et al. , 2009)• Euclidean Distance-Based

Ranking (Kale & Akker, 2013)

Random effects residuals

Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org