The Semiconductor Industry:

Changed and Unchanged

July 11, 2017

Tetsuro Higashi

Corporate Advisor, Corporate Director

Tokyo Electron Limited

Photos (Apple II, Intel 8085): Wikipedia

My 40 years in the industry

1977

I joined TEL™

Apple II and Intel 8085 introduced

Apple II Intel 8085 8-bit Microprocessor TEL-Thermco Horizontal Diffusion Furnace

2

2017 vs. 1977

World population 4.2B 7.4B

WFE <$2B $40B

TEL sales <¥20B ¥800B*

Technology node 3μm 10nm

x20

x40

x1/300

x1.8

My age 27 67+40

1977 2017

3

*TEL’s FY 2017 ended March 31, 2017

2017 vs. 2057

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055

Assuming 2017-2057

CAGR 7% and 5%

2057

$5,600B

$2,600B

$ Billion

2017

$378Bwe are here

Source: WSTS (1986~2017F), TEL

Semiconductor market

1986-2017

CAGR 9%

4

The singularity in 2027

The biggest paradigm shift in human history

Inte

llectu

alpow

er

20271950

AI

Human Intelligence

without AI

Human intelligence

empowered by AI

The Singularity

5

We are now at an inflection point

on the way to 2027

6

Interface: Edge computing

AR/VR

Experience and Feeling

Medical device, smartphone, wearable, sensors, etc.

7

Intelligence: Fog computing

Security and Latency

Autonomous driving Smart factory

8

Infrastructure: Cloud computing

5G Network

Cost and Volume9

We will observe device & system

evolution in computing on the way to 2057

10

Already achieved superior performance than human parts individually

“Hearable”

Speaker

Haptics

CPU

DRAM

Flash memory

CIS

Actuators

Analog

Flash memory

CPU

DRAM

CIS

Past: Evolution of semiconductor devices as parts

11

It’s time to make a pizza! = Innovation as a system

Analog

Flash memory

CPU

DRAM

CIS/ISP** Image signal processor

Now: Pursue “super integration” in addition to “specialty”

12

NeuromorphicNeumann

Future: Missing link of conventional semiconductors = inspiration & creativity

“Neumann plus Neuromorphic” will create the true intelligence

Rule-based, Algorithm, Consistent, ･･･ Problem-finding, Experience, Flexible, ･･･

Brain

13

It will be in the future, rather than the past,

that the semiconductor industry creates

the intelligence to extend capability of

human beings

14

My view of the industry

Healthy competition & global collaboration is the key to success

Unchanged

1977

2017

2057

Mission:

Contribute to human & social evolution

Core-competence:

Technology innovation & global care

Shared value:

Venture spirits, competition, collaboration

15

Semiconductor is still in a budding stage waiting to bloom.

Healthy competition heals dissatisfaction of technology.

Collaboration makes innovation.

16

We know:

We shape the future

17

We know:

World of Harmony18