the sociological study of hope and the economy (richard swedberg, 2007)
TRANSCRIPT
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Please do not cite without permission by the author
The Sociological Study of Hope and the Economy:
Introductory Remarks
by
Richard SwedbergCornell University
December 5, 200
a!"ope #apan 0
"ope Studies Con$erence, December %&'%(, 200, )nstitute o$ Social Science,
University o$ *o+yo
%
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ABSTRACT
*he topic o$ hope is currently not very much studied in the social sciences and
this means that the emerging discussion o$ economy and hope, in sociology
and elsewhere, may still bene$it $rom a general discussion o$ hope- *his paper
points to some use$ul re$lections on hope that can be $ound in the religious and
philosophical literature- )t also attempts to summari.e what the social sciences
have said so $ar about hope, especially economics, sociology and
anthropology- ' )n the general and concluding section o$ the paper it is
suggested that it is important to approach hope $rom a perspective which is
such that it opens up this topic to the social sciences- /ne that has this uality
is the $ollowing! hope is a wishfor something to come true- *here are three
elements to this description o$ hope! 1% the wish, 12 its $ocus onsomething
specific, 13 and that the wish comes true- 4lements 12 and 13 have direct
lin+s to the social world and there$ore present entries $or the social sciences-
hat you wish $or depends on society, and so does the attempt to ma+e a wish
be reali.ed- *he conseuences o$ these ideas $or the sociological study o$ hope
and the economy are brie$ly e6plored-
2
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sociology- *he ambition here is to cast the net wide, in order to catch as many $ishes as
possible- *his will be $ollowed by a second and concluding part, in which ) will discuss what
this catch may mean $or a more precise understanding o$ hope as well as $or research on hope
and the economy, $rom a sociological perspective-
Starting $rom an 4veryday iew o$ "ope
Clear de$initions o$ any word or concept are di$$icult to come by, $or a number
o$ reasons, and hope is no e6ception- Bs 8ust mentioned, there is currently little e6act
+nowledge o$ what precisely constitutes hope- /ne nonetheless has to begin somewhere, and )
will start $rom a common, non'academic de$inition-
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with e6pectationE- *he latter o$ these two, the reader is told, is mainly used in poetic conte6ts
and is illustrated by the well'+nown 7iblical phrase to hope against hopeE 1a$ter Rom- iv!%&-
"ope, as suggested by these additional de$initions, also needs to be situated in
relation to trust- hile hope is not a social science concept today, trust is- hile both are
oriented to the $uture or, more precisely, to a positive state in the $uture, there nonetheless also
e6ist some di$$erences- /ne is that in trust you e6pect something to happen and would be
surprised i$ this is not the case- hen you hope, in contrast, there is much less certainty that
what is hoped $or will ta+e place- ith hope, reali.ation is less o$ a possibility than in the case
o$ trust-
hat meaning o$ hope is best suited $or the social sciencesG *here are di$$erent
ways to answer this uestion- *he word hope has been used in a multitude o$ di$$erent
conte6ts over the centuries and acuired many meanings in this process- )nstead o$ ma+ing an
argument at this point o$ the paper $or one o$ these as the most suitable candidate, ) have
chosen to present and discuss several o$ its di$$erent meanings- *his way more o$ the richness
and comple6ity o$ the concept o$ hope can become part o$ the discussion-
Conceived along these lines, the ne6t $ew pages o$ this introduction will serve as
an introduction both to the concept o$ hope in general and as a social science concept- ) have
also made a special e$$ort to touch on some related issues- =y way o$ proceeding will be to
present and discuss the way that hope has been used and analysed in religion, philosophy and
the social sciences- Bmong the social sciences ) will pay special attention to sociology,
anthropology and economics-
*he account o$ the role o$ hope in religion, philosophy and the social sciences
will be $ragmentary and incomplete, since there are $ew good studies on these topics- *he
reader who also wants to e6plore the role o$ hope in the arts, everyday li$e and academic
disciplines other than sociology, anthropology and economics, is re$erred to the literature in a
$ootnote and to the re$erence list at the end o$ this introduction- 2
"ope in Religion and Philosophy
)n the literature on hope it is o$ten noted that 8ust as there e6ists a tradition o$
political hope, there also e6ists a tradition o$ religious hope- Re$erences are usually made to
24rnst 7loch;sPrinciple of Hopecan, among other things, be described as an idiosyncratic
encyclopaedia when it comes to hope, including its role in everyday li$e-
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the role o$ hope in the 9ew *estament, especially to the writings o$ Paul and his $amous
statement in the $irst Corinthian Ietter about $aith, hope and love- *he religious tradition o$
hope sometimes has messianic overtones- )t is also e6plicitly normative, which means that
what you hope $or is the same as what is good-
*he +ey passage in Paul;s Corinthian Ietter, written around year 55, reads as
$ollows! So $aith, hope, love abide, these three but the greatest o$ these is loveE 1% Cor-
%3!%3- *his should not be interpreted as a statement that love is superior to hope- *he two are
rather part o$ each other, as an earlier passage in the same letter ma+es clear! Iove bears all
things, believes all things, hopes all things, endures all thingsE 1% Cor- %3! emphasis added-
*he three so'called theological virtues o$ $aith, hope and love, are o$ten
contrasted in the religious literature to the $our cardinal virtues o$ prudence, 8ustice,
temperance and $ortitude 1e-g- Buinas %(FF, "ousen 200F- *he cardinal virtues, which trace
their origin to @ree+ philosophy, are characteri.ed by the $act that they can be learned, aided
by grace-
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colors- 7ut there also e6ist some di$$erences between the two- hile the opposite o$ optimism
is pessimism, the opposite o$ hope is $ear or hopelessness- Bnd while hope is sometimes
de$ined as an emotion or as sharing some $eatures with emotions, optimism is perhaps better
described as a disposition or a set o$ opinions-
Bnother di$$erence between optimism and hope comes out i$ we loo+ at the $ate
o$ philosophical optimism in the %&th century- *he $amous earthua+e in Iisbon in %55
delivered a heavy blow to the optimism o$ the 4nlightenment, as evidenced by the reaction o$
oltaire- )n %andide, or Optimism 1%5( the ideas o$ optimism are $amously satiri.ed- hen
Dr- Pangloss $or e6ample argues that the e6istence o$ the nose shows that nature has wisely
provided us with a good place $or our eyeglasses, it is Ieibni.;s optmism that oltaire has in
mind-
*hat the critiue o$ optimism did not necessarily e6tend to the concept o$ hope
can be illustrated by the wor+ o$ )mmanuel Aant- )n %riti&ue of Pure 'eason1%&% Aant
says that reason is interested in the $ollowing three uestions!
%- hat can ) +nowG
2- hat ought ) to doG
3- hat may hopeG 1Aant J%&%K %(L5!L35 emphasis added
)n e6plicating each o$ these three uestions, Aant emphasi.es that all hopingis directed
towards happinessE 1i*id-, p- L3L- *he reader o$ Aant;s te6t on perpetual peace is also told
that there are good grounds $or hoping that we shall succeedE 1Aant J%(5K %(0!%30-
*here is an e6istential tone to Aant;s $ormulation o$ the three uestions in
%riti&ue of Pure 'eason, and one can also $ind many interesting ideas on hope in the
wor+s o$ the e6istentialists- Aier+egaard, $or e6ample, discusses hope in connection with
memory and repetition- Bccording to'epetition1%&F3, memory means to repeat
bac+wards, and repetition to remember $orwards- "ope, Aier+egaard says, is neither the
same as memory nor the same as repetition- )nstead it means to do something novel and
brittle! hope is a new out$it, untried, sti$$ and shining, but which you have never used so
you don;t really +now whether you will loo+ good in it or i$ it will $itE 1Aier+egaard J%&F3K
%((5!L-
*here is also a danger to hope, Aier+egaard warns inEither+Or and this is
the case when hope gets to set the goal rather than gently drive the action- )t is indeed
beauti$ul to see a person put out to sea with the $air wind o$ hope one may utili.e the
chance to let onesel$ be towed away, but one ought never have it on board one;s cra$t, least
o$ all as pilot, $or it is an untrustworthy shipmasterE 1Aier+egaard %(&!2(2'(3-
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Bs to 20th century e6istentialists, several o$ these have shown interest in
hope, such as Blbert Camus, @abriel =arcel and #ean'Paul Sartre- The yth of isophys
1%(F2 by Camus is o$ special interest in this conte6t because o$ its sharp argument against
hope- Bccording to Camus, modern man is tempted to give in to hope, in the $orm o$ a
religion or doctrine that assigns meaning to the world and hides its essential
meaninglessness or absurd uality- *o hope, in other words, means to give in to an
inauthentic impulse and to $alsi$y one;s relationship to the world- Ii$e is absurd and this is
a truth that should be $aced- *he absurd is the contrary o$ hopeE and the re$usal to hopeE
is essential to absurd manE 1Camus %(55!FF, 2L-
Sartre;s ideas on hope came to their most concentrated e6pression in a series
o$ interviews that were published in %(&0 and have been collected in a volume entitled
Hope -ow- Sartre here says that he did not thin+ in terms o$ hope when he wrote his ma8or
wor+ in e6istentialism,.eing and -othingness1%(F3- 9onetheless, since the publication
o$ this wor+ he has increasingly come to $eel that everyone lives with hopeE and that
hope is part o$ manE 1Sartre %((L!33, 5L-
7y the phrase that hope is part o$ man, Sartre does not so much mean that
people are hope$ul or that they invest some o$ their actions with hope- "is argument is
instead that a person;s acts are always set within a broader goal : and since this goal is
hope$ul, it so'to'spea+ $rames and in$uses all other acts with its hope- /r in Sartre;s words!
everyone has a goal beyond the practical or theoretical goals o$ the moment, matters o$
politics, say, or education beyond all such matters, everyone has a goal that ) would call, i$
you wish, transcendent or absolute, and all practical goals have meaning only in relation to
this goalE 1i*id-, p- 5L-
*he $oremost philosophical wor+ on hope : and still the only ma8or
philosophical wor+ on this topic : is The Principle of Hopeby 4rnst 7loch- *his 3'volume
wor+ was mainly written during %(3&'%(F, when 7loch lived in the United States- )ts
impact on modern philosophy has been minor, partly because 7loch insisted on $ollowing
his own course and ignored mainstream philosophy, and partly because o$ 7loch;s
sympathy $or the Soviet Union and 4ast @ermany-
7loch has a broad and multi'$acetted concept o$ hope and argues that it can
sometimes be an emotion and at other times more o$ a cognitive act- /ne can learn to hope,
he says, and hope can also be taught- *here is genuine hopeE as well as $raudulent
hopeE 17loch %(&L!5- "ope, as is shown in great detail in The Principle of Hope, can be
&
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$ound in many aspects o$ human e6istence ' in art, music, detective stories, daydreams,
utopias and much more-
Bn important theme in 7loch is that hope is ontologically directed towards
the $uture and what has not yet come into being : what he calls the 9ot'?et 1-och+-icht-
*his "egelian sounding term should not detract $rom the $act that there is a concrete
uality to hope in 7loch;s version- 46pectation, hope, intention towards possibility that
has still not become! this is not only a basic $eature o$ human consciousness, but,
concretely corrected and grasped, a basic determination within ob8ective reality as a
wholeE 17loch %(&L!-
Bccording to The Principle of Hope,philosophy has utterly $ailed to deal
with hope, and one important reason $or this is that it has e6clusively been preoccupied
with the past- 9ot only does philosophy loo+ bac+wards, it also $ails to see the element o$
hope in the past- Ii+e
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lin+ed to the so'called *ocueville 4$$ect and can be $ound in The Old 'egime and the
'e/olution$ hat the *ocueville 4$$ect re$ers to is that towards the end o$ the %& thcentury
some re$orms were carried out in
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Blso modern sociology is incomplete and $ragmentary in its analysis o$ hope-
#ust li+e classical sociology, modern sociology seems to pre$er to discuss concepts that are
in some way related to the concept o$ hope, rather than hope itsel$ : such as trust,
e6pectations, aspirations, drive and the li+e- *his is also true $or the growing branch called
the sociology o$ emotions that sometimes touches on hope but pre$ers to $ocus on the
ma8or and more important emotions 1e-g- Aemper %(&!2&3, 7arbalet %((&!%50-
Bn interesting and rare attempt to turn hope into a use$ul concept in modern
sociology can be $ound in a lecture by Ral$ Dahrendor$ entitled )neuality, "ope, and
ProgressE 1%(L- *he author begins by ma+ing a sharp distinction between utopian hopeE
and realistic hopeE- *he $ormer he describes by pointing to the early writings by =ar6,
=arcuse;s notion o$ a multi'dimensional man and "abermas; pro8ect o$ human
communication- Realistic hopeE, in contrast, re$ers to what is concrete and possible to
achieve- Dahrendor$ also terms it e$$ective hopeE- Dahrendor$;s main thesis is that social
ineuality serves as an important incentive $or people to better their condition by
awa+ening realistic or e$$ective hope in them-
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hope is progress, may be open to doubt but i$ there is to be any progress at all, such
hope is one o$ its ingredients- 1i*id-
hile Dahrendor$ in his discussion o$ realistic hope comes very close to
supplying the reader with an operational de$inition o$ hope, no such de$inition is given-
/ne o$ our colleagues, however, who heard about our interest in hope and the economy,
has +indly supplied us with such a de$inition and we o$$er it as part o$ the discussion o$
hope as a social science concept- "ans >etterberg, a well'+nown e6pert on survey research,
wrote to us a propos hope that he very much would li+e to have the $ollowing uestion
as+ed on an annual basis in countries all over the world! Do you thin+ that the children
who are growing up today will have it better or worse than you have it, when they are your
ageGE 1>etterberg 2005- Perhaps this can be labelled pro8ected hope or, better, hope $or
others-
)n turning to the issue o$ survey research, it can be mentioned that the very
$irst attempt to include uestions about hope in survey research may well have ta+en place
in the early %(00s in @ermany- )n %(%2 Bdolph Ievenstein, a sel$'educated wor+er and an
acuaintance o$ =a6 eber, published an attitude survey in a boo+ entitled The orking
%lass 1uestion1Ievenstein %(%2 $or discussion, see /berschall %(L5!(F'%0L- /ne o$ the
uestions that was as+ed read Ehat hopes and wishes do you haveGE and it turned out to
be very success$ul- /ne 22'year old miner answered, $or e6ample, as $ollows! E) have one
desire $or mysel$ and the rest o$ man+ind- *hat she be able to parta+e very soon in the
beauty o$ the world- *he world has enough o$ it to ma+e all man+ind happy and
peace$ulE 1/berschall %(L5!%0F-
=entioning this early e6ample o$ a survey, also gives me an e6cuse to note
that one o$ the $oremost theoreticians o$ chance and probability, Charles Peirce, has some
intriguing ideas about the role o$ hope in a world ruled by chance- *he human community,
Peirce appears to argue, inspires Ehope or JaK calm and cheer$ul wishE, since it always will
outlast the individual 1see in this conte6t "ac+ing %((0!2%%'%2- 9o'one, as $ar as ) +now,
have e6plored in detail the role that hope plays in Peirce;s philosophy-
>etterberg;s approach to hope : survey research where you as+ someone to
compare the situation today to that o$ tomorrow : points to a whole genre o$ e6isting
research- *o cite one e6ample among many, the surveys on optimismE and pessimismE
by @allup )nternational- *his organi.ation typically carries out research in some $i$ty'si6ty
countries simultaneously, and tries to establish i$ their inhabitants are optimistic or
pessimistic- *his is measured with the help o$ uestions on the theme o$ do you thin+ ne6t
%3
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year will be better than this yearGE *here are also uestions that attempt to loo+ at the
economic dimensions o$ this theme, such as the economic prospect in general, whether
unemployment will increase and the li+e 1e-g- @allup )nternational 2005-
*his type o$ research leads in a natural way to the uestion i$ there e6ists a
relationship between the idea o$ hope in the economy and surveys o$ consumer con$idence-
*hese surveys are very common in contemporary society, where they are closely $ollowed
by politicians and business people- Surveys o$ consumer con$idence trace their origin to
the wor+ o$ @eorge Aatano, in particular to his )nde6 o$ Consumer Sentiment $rom %(52-
*he two most cited surveys o$ consumer con$idence in the United States today are the
Consumer Con$idence )nde6 1produced by the Con$erence 7oard and the )nde6 o$
Consumer Sentiment 1produced at the University o$ =ichigan- *he uestions that are
as+ed in this type o$ surveys, include the $ollowing! Ioo+ing ahead, do you thin+ a year
$rom now you 1and your $amily living there will be better o$$ $inancially, worse o$$ or 8ust
about the same as nowGE and *urning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do
you thin+ that during the ne6t %2 months we;ll have good times $inancially or bad times or
whatGE 1eiss 2003- Results $rom surveys o$ consumer con$idence indicate that young
people have more con$idence in the $uture than old people, and well'o$$ people more than
poor people-
*he notion o$ consumer con$idence overlaps to some e6tent with that o$
hope, but there also e6ist signi$icant di$$erences between the two- 7oth are, $or e6ample,
directed at the $uture and that things may be better in the $uture- *he most important
di$$erence is that while surveys o$ consumer con$idence are interested in establishing what
will happen, hope is more about what one wants or wishes to happen- )t is true that what
will happen and what one wants to happen may coincide- 7ut even when this is the case,
there is a comple6ity to the notion o$ hope that goes well beyond the standard measure o$
consumer con$idence-
hat represents so $ar the most impressive and important attempt to
approach the topic o$ hope through survey research has been made in #apan at the )nstitute
o$ Social Science at *o+yo University, in connection with the pro8ect o$ "opology 12005'-
*he bac+ground to this research is the sense among the public in #apan since a $ew years
bac+ that the country lac+s hope hence the interest among some o$ its social scientists $or
this topic-
*he main survey by this institute, underta+en in 200L, $ound that the ma8ority
o$ the country;s population 1roughly &0 O had hope and that the ma8ority o$ these 1some
%F
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L0 O also believed that they would be able to reali.e this hope within a reasonable amount
o$ time 1@enda 200- People, it turned out, hoped $or di$$erent things and $or males hope
was typically attached to wor+- 9ot only individuals but also households were researched
and wealthy households had more hope than poor households-
?uri @anda : the main researcher behind this wor+ : concludes that the data
does not allow you to determine i$ hope has actually declined in #apan or not- Since
#apanese society, however, is moving in the direction o$ a society with more old people,
with more unemployment, and certain other $eatures and since these $actors 1old age,
unemployment and a $ew other items have been shown to be associated with low levels o$
hope, #apan may very well be heading in the direction o$ less hope-
*o $ully evaluate the situation in #apan, it can be added, one would also need
comparative data, something that does not seem to e6ist today- hile the @allup
)nternational Survey $indings $or 2005 is based on very di$$erent uestions than those that
were used in #apan, one o$ their $indings should nonetheless be mentioned- *his is that the
level o$ optimism varied uite a bit between regions as well as between countries 13%O and
2LO respectively- Does hope, one wonders, vary eually muchG
/ne also wonders what the results would have been in #apan i$ ualitative
research methods had been used, such as in depth interviews, participant observation and
the li+e- ould these be able to answer more subtle uestions that are hard to get at with
the help o$ survey researchG ould they, $or e6ample, validate the approach o$ someone
li+e sociologist >ygmund 7aumanG Bccording to 7auman, one can $ind hope in many
situations where people have no ob8ective reason whatsoever to be hope$ul- "ope is
stronger than all imaginable Mtestimony o$ reality;E 17auman 200F!L- "ope needs no
proo$E, he also says- "ope is valid and real even i$ groundlessE 1i*id-- )n brie$, the
relationship o$ hope to empirical reality is comple6 and raises uestions that may reuire
many di$$erent types o$ methods to e6plore-
)$ we move on $rom sociology to anthropology, it would appear that eually
little attention has been paid to hope in this branch o$ the social sciences- Bccording to an
attempt to trace the history o$ research on hope in early and classical anthropology, there only
e6ists one wor+ on this topic!"aith, Hope, and %harity in Primiti/e 'eligion1%(32 by
Robert Ranulph =arrett 1Crapan.ano 2003a, b- *his, however, does not mean that
anthropologists have $ound no re$erences to hope in the many cultures they have researched
over the years- Bccording to the "uman Relations Brea
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e6plain the conditions under which it becomes stronger or wea+er, =iya.a+i argues that
hope should primarily be studied as a method- Drawing on the wor+s o$ 7loch, 7en8amin
and Rorty, he says that any other way o$ proceeding would be to negate the nature o$ hope-
Bn important aspect o$ =iya.a+i;s approach to hope as a method can be
$ound in his notion o$ repetition or replication- "opeE, he says, cannot be argued $or it
can only be replicatedE 1=iya.a+i 200F!%%0- Bn e6ample o$ replication in The ethod of
Hopecan be $ound in the analysis o$ the attempt by the Suavo people to start a real estate
pro8ect in the %((0s, a venture that they initially approached with deep pessimism because
o$ their earlier $ailures with this type o$ enterprise- /ne o$ their religious leaders, however,
told the Suavo people that they now had @od on their side, something which made them
see things in a new and hope$ul light- )n =iya.a+i;s terminology, hope was thereby
replicated and trans$erred $rom the area o$ religious thought to the area o$ real estate-
Similarly : and this is how The ethod of Hopeends : =iya.a+i wants to replicate or
trans$er hope onto the area o$ anthropological +nowledge itsel$-
*he main uestion that according to =iya.a+i drives his research : How do
we keep hope ali/e3' also in$orms his second ma8or study, which deals with the
economy o$ hopeE 1=iya.a+i $orthcoming- Using a ma8or #apanese securities $irm as his
research site, =iya.a+i shows how some derivative traders; hope$ul vision in$uses not only
their daily economic activities but also their lives more generally- *his study represents
=iya.a+i;s most important study o$ hope and economy so $ar-
)$ we now turn to the science o$ economics, it soon becomes clear that
economists have paid even less attention to hope than sociologists and anthropologists- Bn
important reason $or this is no doubt connected to the hold that homo economicushas had
on mainstream economics, $rom the end o$ the %(th century till today- 4conomic man is
euipped with superior cognitive s+ills but he has no emotions- "e is never surprised or
disappointed, and he never e6periences hope or $ear- "e can, however, calculate
probabilities and ta+e ris+s and a ris+'ta+er can to some e6tent be labelled an optimist, 8ust
as someone who is ris+ averse can be called a pessimist-
4ven i$ it is possible to analyse some aspects o$ hope with the help o$
concepts such as ris+'ta+ing and rational e6pectations, the $iction o$ economic man
severely restricts the analysis o$ hope- *his becomes clear i$ one compares the minimal
space allotted to hope in microeconomics or rational choice theory to the one that can be
$ound in early economics- )n The ealth of -ations1%L, $or e6ample, Bdam Smith
touches on the role o$ hope in economic li$e in both a comple6 and realistic way- "e notes,
%
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among other things, that the hope o$ a better li$e motivates people to wor+ harder : what he
calls the com$ortable hope Jo$ the average personK o$ bettering his conditionsE 1Smith
J%LK %(L!(&-
hat may well be Bdam Smith;s main contribution to the analysis o$ the role
o$ hope in economic li$e has to do with a di$$erent topic, namely his thesis that hope ma+es
people overestimate their chances o$ ma+ing a pro$it and underestimate their chances o$
ma+ing a loss- *here is plenty o$ the presumptuous hope o$ successE and the hope o$
good luc+E, he says, but not enough $ear o$ mis$ortuneE 1Smith J%LK %(L!%2L- Smith
notes that the e6istence o$ lottery illustrates the presumptuous hope o$ successE, and that
it is this type o$ hope that ma+es adventurers enter into business and young people choose
pro$essions $or which they have little talent- )t is the same romantic hopeE, Smith adds,
that ma+es young men enlist in the army at the beginning o$ a war and disregard the
chance o$ getting +illed 1i*id--
Bs already noted, it is to a great e6tent the popularity o$ the idea o$ economic
man that has prevented economists $rom addressing the role o$ hope in economic li$e
beyond such notions as rational e6pectations, ris+'ta+ing and the li+e- Some unorthodo6
economists, however, have tried a di$$erent approach to economic analysis and, in doing
so, they have occasionally touched on the topic o$ hope- /ne o$ these is Aenneth 7oulding,
the author o$ an interesting article entitled Sources o$ Reasonable "ope $or the
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probability at all to an event, this is always possible in situations that involve ris+,
according to the well'+nown argument by
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challenging mainstream economics and especially one o$ its ma8or $indings is o$ relevance
to the study o$ hope- *his is that people tend to overestimate their chances to succeed and
underestimate their chances to $ail- *his type o$ research, which is +nown as
overcon$idence theory, is sometimes summari.ed with the phrase sadder but wiserE it
also brings us bac+ to the argument o$ Bdam Smith in The ealth of -ations-
/ne study that can be used to illustrate overcon$idence theory is *he
7orrower;s Curse! /ptimism,
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e6pectation is closely associated with rational choice and $ormal calculability : two
categories that do not go very well with hope-
*he way that hope will be approached in this paper is as $ollows and, again,
the reason $or choosing this particular angle has to do with the purpose o$ opening up hope
to the social sciences- =y point o$ departure is a simple description o$ hope as the wish for
something to come true- *here are several elements to this de$inition, but $or the moment
their unity and overall meaning should be stressed! one does not wish $or something
abstract, but $or something precise and one also wants this wish $or something precise to
be reali.ed- hether it ultimately can or will be reali.ed or not, is not +nown but this does
not stop the actor $rom hoping that it will- "ope, in short, is characteri.ed by a certain type
o$ uncertainty, but not because it cannot be calculated $or cognitive reasons 1
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points- *he $ormulation ) have used is to become trueE rather than to be reali.edE, since
hope does not have the direct and instrumental uality o$ the latter e6pression- "ope, it can
be added, is always rooted in a person- )t can remain in the person or it can reach out
through some action $rom the person into reality-
)n the case that hope is translated into action in the world, outside the person,
there is another opening $or the social sciences, becausesomethingcan usually not become
true unless there is assistance or acceptance $rom other people- )$ one;s environment, $or
e6ample, is very positive to something, there is more o$ a chance that this something will
be hoped $or, and that it will become true-
Still, hope is always anchored in the person and cannot be reduced to, say, a
simple recipe $or how to do something- "ope may also notinspire to action and thereby
remain a wish $or something to become true- )$ this is the case : i$ hope is passive rather
than active ' the person places hersel$ in the position to wait $or something to happen to
her- "ence the a$$inity between waiting and hoping, with the danger that i$ one waits to
long, hope may vanish and the element o$ waiting may overta+e the person-5
)$ we return to active hope, hope that wishes to be reali.ed outside the person,
it would seem that certain types o$ hope and ways o$ reali.ing these may become so
ingrained or characteristic $or certain groups and societies that they can be described as
social factsin Dur+heim;s sense- *hey constitute, in brie$, the normalE way to hope, and
divergencies $rom them are accompanied by a sense o$ coercion and possibly also by
sanctions $rom other people- People may, $or e6ample, hope $or material success o$ a
certain type, $or one;s children to be success$ul in a certain way, and so on-
Similarly, in case the actor tries to reali.e his or her hope, the uestion arises
i$ the meansto go about this reali.ation constitute a social $act or not- B social $act in this
case would mean that there e6ists ways that are commonly used to reali.e a goal, as
opposed to new and untried ways- *he chances that hope will be reali.ed is presumably
larger i$ the means that are used have already been tried out and are commonly used-
7ut there may be more to hope and its social dimension than so- Aier+egaard
spea+s o$ hope as $air wind $illing the sails and pushing the wish $or something to its goal-
7ut he also ma+es the interesting comment that hope can so to spea+ overta+e its ob8ect
and lessen its chances o$ being reali.ed- *his is where hope goes $rom being help$ul to
preventing its ob8ect $rom coming into being and sometimes even destroying it- Bgain, a
5*hese thought are inspired by the wor+ o$ 9ao+i Ausaga-
22
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door is opened up to the social since it is easy to imagine situations where the individual
succumbs to over'enthusiasm precisely because o$ what other people do-
/ne can illustrate some o$ the view o$ hope that has been advanced in this
paper with the help o$ a diagram with two dimensions- /ne denotes whether hope stays
within the person or whether the person will also try to reali.e it in reality 1passi/e+acti/e-
*he other dimension attempts to capture the uality that hope is use$ul in some doses ' to
get the wishing going ' but that it also can become so strong that it overwhelms the normal
un$olding o$ hope and prevents it $rom becoming true 1infusing+o/ertaking see
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Bgain, we have an entry $or the social sciences here, to the e6tent that the
destruction o$ the capacity $or hope comes $rom the outside- )t can, $or e6ample, have been
caused by some speci$ic event and relevant events may vary $rom society to society-
Perhaps also the opposite is true, namely that the capacity to hope can be strengthened
under certain circumstances- Can it also be restored, once it has been destroyedG e do not
+now-
)$ one applies this view o$ hope to the economy, one can get a sense $or some
o$ the topics that can be analy.ed with the help o$ the social sciences- Bs to the element o$
wish, it would seem that people wish $or economic things, among other reasons, because o$
scarcity there is 8ust not enough o$ everything $or everybody- )t would also seem that
people primarily wish $or material matters when it comes to the economy- *his would
mean that wishes o$ this type are more aimed towards the outer world than towards the
inner world- )nterestingly enough, however, this may not always be the case- People have
plenty o$ economic dreams and wishes about the economy 1e-g- =iya.a+i $orthcoming-
4lement Q 2 : that hope always means a wish $orsomething: ta+es on a
special meaning in the world o$ the economy- /ne may wish $or a $ortune, a good 8ob,
success in business and so on- Bs earlier mentioned, this element has a direct lin+ to the
social in the sense that di$$erent groups, societies and so on have di$$erent economic items
to which hope can be attached- )n a $eudal society, the peasant may hope $or a non'
rapacious lord in a capitalist society $or a high demand $or the crop, and so on-
Similarly, 4lement Q 3 : the wish $or something to *ecome true: is played
out according to its own logic in the world o$ the economy- )$ the person +nows what to do,
the chance o$ reali.ing the hope will grow- "ope can also get the person going and be the
helping hand that "irschman spea+s about- 7ut i$ hope overta+es the action to reali.e the
hope, the entrepreneur may go wrong, end up as a speculator or a rec+less investor 1see
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#ust li+e the ob8ect o$ hope may be a social $act, this is also the case with the
means that are used $or its reali.ation- 4conomic means, in brie$, may acuire the
e6emplary or obligatory uality that comes with a social $act- Bgain, using uncommon
means will presumably lower the chances $or the hope to be reali.ed-
7ut lower chances $or reali.ation may always not be a handicap in the area o$
the economy it can also translate into a large pro$it i$ the e$$ort is success$ul- Bn argument
o$ this type can, $or e6ample, be $ound in Schumpeter;s theory o$ entrepreneurship- )n
general, the topic o$ hope and entrepreneurship may be closely related 1e-g- Anudsen and
Swedberg 200&-
eisel 1J%(33K %(%-
*here are $amilies that are unbro+enE, resignedE and bro+enE- )n the authors;
terminology, the unbro+en have hope, the resigned have no hope, and the bro+en $eel
hopeless-
*he purpose o$ the discussion in the second part o$ this paper has not been to
develop a general theory o$ hope, and then apply it to the economy- )nstead its purpose has
been to loo+ at hope in a way that opens it up $or social science study, especially the
sociological study o$ hope and the economy- ) have indicated two places where hope has
direct lin+s to society! you hope $orsomethingand $or this something to *ecome true-
"opleessness also appears to be caused by social $orces- Bll o$ these cases, ) argue, invite
to $urther discussion, re$lection and research 1see
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Clot$elter, Charles and Phillip Coo+- %(&(- elling Hope4 tate #otteries in 0merica$
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Crapan.ano, incent- 2003a-maginati/e Hori2ons4 0n Essay in #iterary+Philosophical
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Cronan, illiam- %((%--ature!s etropolis4 %hicago and the 5reat est- 9ew ?or+! --
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