the solar cycle response of the middle and upper atmosphere: simulations with hammonia
DESCRIPTION
The solar cycle response of the middle and upper atmosphere: Simulations with HAMMONIA. Hauke Schmidt 1 , Guy Brasseur 2 , Marco Giorgetta 1 , and Aleksandr Gruzdev 3 1 : Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany 2 : now at National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The solar cycle response of the middle and upper atmosphere: Simulations with
HAMMONIA
Hauke Schmidt1, Guy Brasseur2, Marco Giorgetta1, and Aleksandr Gruzdev3
1: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany2: now at National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder,
USA3: A. M. Obukhov Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Moscow,
Russia
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Outline
•HAMMONIA - Model description
•The atmospheric response to the 27-day variation
•The atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle
- Energy budget
- Chemistry
- Dynamics
•The atmospheric response to CO2 doubling
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
HAMMONIA – a member of the ECHAM familyEC
HA
M5
MA
EC
HA
M5
HA
MM
ON
IA
~ 250 km
~ 80 km
~ 30 km
Sola
r H
eati
ng
(n
ear
UV
, vis
. &
near
IR)
Mole
cu
lar
Pro
cesses
Sola
r H
eati
ng
(S
RB
&C
, Ly-a
,
EU
V)
IR C
oolin
gIR
Coolin
g (
non
-LTE)
Ch
em
ical
heati
ng
Gra
vit
y W
ave D
rag
Ion
D
rag
Tu
rbu
len
t D
iffu
sio
n
Clo
ud
s &
C
on
vecti
on
Su
rface
Flu
xes
Neu
tral G
as P
hase C
hem
istr
y
(MO
ZA
RT3
)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
HAMMONIA - Description (1)
• 67 levels from the surface to ~250 km, T31 horizontal resolution
• Based on ECHAM/MAECHAM5 with extensions to account for processes in the upper atmosphere
• Radiation
- Near UV, Vis. & near IR heating: 4 bins, Fouquart & Bonnel (Contr. Atm Phys., 1980); or taken from TUV (< 680nm)
- IR cooling: RRTM from Mlawer et al. upto 0.1 hPa (eg. Iacono et al., JGR, 2000)
- Non-LTE IR cooling: 15 μm CO2 & 9.6 μm O3 above 0.02 hPa (Fomichev, JGR, 1998)
- CO2-IR heating (Ogibalov & Fomichev, Adv. Sp. Res., 2003)
- EUV heating: 5 to 105 nm, 20 bins, Richards et al. (JGR, 1994), efficiency from Roble (AGU Monogr., 1995)
- Schumann Runge B&C heating: either Strobel (JGR, 1978), eff. from Mlynczak & Solomon (JGR, 1993); or taken from TUV
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
HAMMONIA - Description (2)
• Doppler-spread non-orographic gravity wave drag (Hines, JASTP, 1997) and orographic gravity wave drag (Lott, MWR, 1999)
• Prescribed ion drag (Hong & Lindzen, JAS, 1996)
• Molecular processes
• Chemistry of the MOZART-3 CTM (48 constituents, 153 gas phase reactions)
• Chemical lower boundary concentrations from MOZART-2 simulations
• Photodissociation rate computation from MOZART-3 (based on TUV, Madronich et al.)• JO2: Chabrillat & Kockaerts (Lya, GRL, 1998), Brasseur & Solomon (SRC,
Book, 1986), Koppers & Murtagh (SRB, Ann. Geoph., 1996)
• JNO: Minschwaner & Siskind (JGR, 1993)
• Chemical heating for 7 reactions
• R and Cp height dependent
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Acknowledgements
People at (or formerly at) MPI-Met:
• M. Charron, T. Diehl, M. Giorgetta, E. Manzini, and E. Roeckner and the ECHAM-team
People who contributed to the model development outside MPI-Met:
• V. Fomichev1, D. Kinnison2, and S. Walters2
1 York University, Toronto, Canada2 NCAR, Boulder, USA
• J. Lean (Naval Res. Lab., Washington, USA) provided the solar irradiance spectra
• D. Marsh (NCAR) helped in the model evaluation with SABER data
• M. Zecha and P. Hoffmann (IAP Kühlungsborn) for model evaluation with ground-based observations
• Computations were made at the DKRZ (German climate computing centre)
• The work was supported by the BMBF (German ministry for education and science)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Zonal mean temperature [K], July, 16 LT
HA
MM
ON
IA
SA
BER
/TIM
ED
, Ju
ly 1
-16,
2002
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Zonal mean O3 [ppmv], July, 15 LT
HA
MM
ON
IA
SA
BER
/TIM
ED
, Ju
ly 6
-14,
2002
UR
AP
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Zonal mean zonal wind [m/s], July
UARS (HRDI) / UKMO
HAMMONIA
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Temperature in the Mesopause RegionHAMMONIA – Meteor Radar Observations
(courtesy by M. Zecha, IAP Kühlungsborn, Germany,for meteor radar details, see e.g. Singer et al., JASTP, 2004)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Variability of solar irradiance as given by UARS / SOLSTICE(Maximum: 1992, Minimum: 1996)
(Rottmann, Space Sc. Rev., 2000)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Penetration depth of solar radiation in the atmosphere
(Liou, Academic Press, 2002)
(nm) 50 100 150 200 250 300
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
The variation of solar UV radiation
(Rottman, Sp. Sc. Rev., 2000)
norm
aliz
ed in
tens
ity
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
27-day Variation Experiments - Setup
Two simulations over 5 years each:a)forced by mean solar irradiance as for January to June 1990b)as in a) but with an additional 27-day variation of solar
irradiance
- irradiance variation is assumed to be sinusoidal and have a period of exactly 27 days
- irradiance depending on wavelength (1nm resolution, see Lean et al., JGR, 1997) for λ>120nm has been analysed spectrally for Jan-Jun 1990
- the analysed amplitude for the 27-day period was used as amplitude of our artificial forcing
- EUV is modulated using F10.7 as proxy (Richards et al., JGR, 1994)
- SSTs fixed to climatological values
- compound concentrations at the surface are fixed to climatological values
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
The 27-day solar signal in low-latitude ozone
no forcing
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
The 27-day solar signal in mid-latitude ozone
10 20 30 40 50
Period (day)
0
50
100
150
200
250
He
i gh
t (
km
)
-5.0
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
winter
10 20 30 40 50
Period (day)
0
50
100
150
200
250
He
igh
t
(k
m)
-6.5
-6.0
-5.5
-5.0
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
summer
Normalized Ozone Power Spectra at 50N
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
The 27-day solar signal in stratospheric ozone
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5
Year of simulation
10
20
30
40
50
Pe
rio
d (
da
y)
-15.0
-14.5
-14.0
-13.5
-13.0
-12.5
-12.0
-11.5
-11.0
Ozone running spectrum at 35 km at 50S
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar Cycle Experiments - Setup
Two simulations over 20 years forced by constant solar irradiance for
a) solar minimum (September 1986, F10.7=69)b) solar maximum (November 1989, F10.7=235)
- irradiance depending on wavelength (1nm resolution) from Lean et al. (JGR, 1997) for λ>120nm
- EUV is modulated using F10.7 as proxy (Richards et al., JGR, 1994)
- upper boundary condition for H und O from MSISE90 is modulated using F10.7 as proxy (Hedin, JGR, 1992)
- thermospheric solar NO production is increased by 1/3 for high activity
- NO production by galactic cosmic rays is modulated
- SSTs fixed to climatological values
- Compound concentrations at the surface fixed to climatological values
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on the global mean energy budget
solar heating (incl. chemical)infrared coolingmolecular diffusion solar minimum solar maximum
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
solar heating
long wave heating/cooling
Solar cycle effect on the energy budget(annual mean, K/day)
molecular diffusion (heat conduction)
chemical heating
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
delta T [vmr], (solar max – min)
delta O3 [%], (solar max – min)
Solar cycle effect - annual mean
delta O3, significance
delta T, significance
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on temperaturesimulation vs. observations
(observed values are adapted from papers listed by Beig et al., Rev. Geophys., 2003)
8a 0#,b
3-10b
15c
4f
-1f
3j 0#,m8g5h2e
0d
8d
10d
0d
0#,k
delta T [K], annual zonal mean, (solar max – min)
a: French, PhD thesis, 2002, OHb: Reisin & Scheer, Ph. Ch. Earth, 2002, OH, O2c: Mohanakumar, Ann. Geo., 1995, rocketsd: She & Krueger, Adv Sp. Res., 2003, lidare: Lowe, workshop paper, 2002, OHf: Keckhut et al., JGR, 1995, lidarg: Semenov, Ph. Ch. Earth, 2000, OHh: Offerman et al., Adv. Space Res., 2003, OHj: Espy & Stegmann, Ph. Ch. Earth, 2002, OHk: Luebken, GRL, 2000, rocketsm: Sigernes et al., JGR, 2003, OH
#: zero or at least no significant trend
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Height vs. Pressure in HAMMONIAsolar min(1*CO2)
solar max – solar min
2*CO2 – 1*CO2
dashed:negative values
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
delta T [vmr], (solar max – min)
delta O3 [%], (solar max – min)
Solar cycle effect - annual mean
delta O3, significance
delta T, significance
Solar cycle effect on annual mean stratospheric ozone(Lee and Smith, JGR, 2003)
Satellite observations
2D-model results
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Confidence level of delta O3 [%]
delta O3 [%], July, (high - low) activity
delta O3 [%], July, (high - low) activity
Solar cycle effect on July ozoneO3 [vmr], July, low activity
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
The solar cycle effect on the diurnal variation of ozone at the mesopause
local time
0 4 8 12 16 20 0
local time
0 4 8 12 16 20 0
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on July chemistry
Noctilucent Clouds(Polar Mesospheric Clouds)
Occur at the summer mesopause, depending on• Temperature (< 150 K)• Water vapor• Condensation nuclei
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar Cycle and Polar Mesospheric Clouds
(DeLand et al., JGR, 2003)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
delta T [K], July, (high - low) activity
Solar cycle effect on temperature
delta T [K], July, (high - low) activity Confidence level of delta T [%]
T [K], July, low activity
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on wintertime zonal mean zonal wind (solar max-solar min) – Northern hemisphere
NCEP analyses, (Kodera & Kuroda, JGR, 2002; Matthes et al., JGR, 2004) HAMMONIA
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on wintertime zonal mean zonal wind (solar max-solar min) – Northern hemisphere NCEP analyses,
(Matthes et al., JGR, 2004) HAMMONIAold simulations, 10 years
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on wintertime zonal mean zonal wind (solar max-solar min) – Northern hemisphere
(Shibata and Kuroda, JASTP,
2005)
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
The QBO simulated by MA-ECHAM5
(Giorgetta et al., GRL, 2002)
MA-ECHAM5:
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on temperature – the longitudinal dependence, January
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on tidesT [K]
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Solar cycle effect on tidesv [m/s]
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
CO2 doubling Experiments - Setup
Four simulations over 10 years each1) surface CO2 of 360 ppm (same run as „solar minimum“)2) surface CO2 of 720 ppm + changed SST (and sea ice)
- initial concentrations doubled to 720 ppm, followed by a one year initialization phase
- sea surface temperatures and sea ice are taken from a respective run with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ECHAM5 + MPI-OM)
3) only SST changed (according to a CO2 concentration of 720 ppm)
4) only CO2 increased to 720 ppm
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Effect of CO2 doubling and SST change on Temperature
delta T, July
CO2 + SST changed
delta T, July
only SST changeddelta T, July
only CO2 changed
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Effect of CO2 doubling and SST change on Temperature
delta T, July
experiment where CO2 + SSTs are changed simultaneously
delta T, July
sum of two experiments
where CO2 and SSTs are changed separately
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Effect of CO2 doubling and SST change on July zonal wind
CO2 + SST changed only SST changeddelta u [m/s], July delta u [m/s], July
u [m/s], July
only CO2 changeddelta u [m/s], July
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
Conclusions
•The response to the 27-day variation is highly variable in space and time.
•11-year cycle effects in the MLT are strong.
•The magnitude of the stratospheric ozone and temperature response is in agreement with observations. – How sure are we about the response in the real atmosphere?
•The solar signal in stratospheric model winds is not robust. – How robust is the signal in the real atmosphere?
•The solar signal depends on longitude and local time (tides!).
•Changes of SSTs have an influence at least up to the mesopause.
Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006
The End
Schmidt et al., The HAMMONIA chemistry climate model: Sensitivity of the mesopause region to the 11-year solar cycle and CO2 doubling, J. Climate, in press, 2006.
available at http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/~schmidt.hauke/publications.php