the south africa i know, the home i understand en/sut/2014/pres/22 expert group on supply and use...
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THE SOUTH AFRICA I KNOW, THE HOME I UNDERSTAND
EN/SUT/2014/Pres/22
Expert group on Supply and Use tablesMauritius, June ‘14
Chapter 2: The use of commodity flow: consistency and missing values
Comments
THE SOUTH AFRICA I KNOW, THE HOME I UNDERSTAND
Chapter outline
Short introduction
Commodity flow approach examples
Conclusion
The basic equation:
DP + IMP + ADJ = IC + GFCE + HFCE + NPISH + GFCF + Δ INV + EXP
THE SOUTH AFRICA I KNOW, THE HOME I UNDERSTAND
Example poultrySUPPLY
Domestic production (value at farm gate) 6,150
plus Imports (c.i.f.) 350
plus Taxes on poultry 0
less Subsidies on poultry 0
plus Trade margins (on household consumption) 130
plus Trade margins (on purchases by pet food manufacturers) 10
plus Transport charges 65
equals Total supply 6,705
USES
Intermediate consumption (for pet food) 1,000
plus Household final consumption expenditure Unknown
plus Government final consumption expenditure 0
plus Gross fixed capital formation 0
plus Change in inventories 0
plus Exports 45
equals Total known uses 1,045
RESIDUAL CALCULATION
Total supply 6,705
less Total known uses 1,045
equals Final consumption expenditure by households 5,660
known
assume
calculate
THE SOUTH AFRICA I KNOW, THE HOME I UNDERSTAND
Example tobaccoSUPPLY
Domestic production (basic prices) 8,200
plus Imports (c.i.f.) 1,200
plus Taxes on tobacco 940
less Subsidies on tobacco 0
plus Trade margins (on household consumption) 1,340
plus Transport charges 300
equals Total supply 11,980
USES
Intermediate consumption 0
plus Household final consumption expenditure 8,000
plus Government final consumption expenditure 0
plus Gross fixed capital formation 0
plus Change in inventories –10
plus Exports 350
equals Total uses 8,340
DISCREPANCY
Total supply 11,980
less Total uses 8,340
equals Discrepancy 3,640
known
assume
calculate ADJUSTMENT
Household final consumption expenditure 8,000
plus Discrepancy 3,640
Revised Household final consumption expenditure 11,640
adjusted
THE SOUTH AFRICA I KNOW, THE HOME I UNDERSTAND
Example wood
known
assume
calculate
adjusted
SUPPLY
Domestic production 4,900
Plus Imports 1,050
Plus Transport costs 595
Plus Trade margin 1,309
Plus Product taxes 0
Equals Total Supply at purchasers prices 7,854
USES
Intermediate consumption ( 260 + 4500 + 3750) 8,510
Plus Household final consumption expenditure 235
Plus Gross fixed capital formation 0
Plus Change in inventories -785
Plus Exports 1,800
Equals Total uses 9,760
DISCREPANCY
Total supply 7,854
Less total uses 9,760
Equals discrepancy -1,906
ADJUSTMENT
Domestic production 6089
Plus Imports 1305
Plus Transport costs 739
Plus Trade margin 1627
Plus Product taxes 0
Equals Total Supply at purchasers prices 9760
THE SOUTH AFRICA I KNOW, THE HOME I UNDERSTAND
Chapter conclusions
Identify firm vs soft estimates
Zero vs Non-zero estimates
Knowledge of neighbours
Knowlegde of own country
Informal sector
Revisions
THE SOUTH AFRICA I KNOW, THE HOME I UNDERSTAND
Some thoughts
Clear and precise
Practical examples
Data tri-angulation
+ Advice on judging quality
Secondary production
Input cost structures
?
THE SOUTH AFRICA I KNOW, THE HOME I UNDERSTAND
ENDJoe de Beer
DDG: Economic Statistics
+27 12 310 [email protected]