the south african trade industry...the trade industry generated r3,17 trillion in income during 2015...
TRANSCRIPT
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The South
African trade
industryAn overview2012 – 2015
Dr Pali Lehohla
Stats SA
26 October 2017
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Retail
Wholesale
Demographic
dividend
Motor trade
Accommodation
Food &
beverages
Detailed data for five divisions in trade are now available
• Large sample surveys
providing data for 2015
• Detailed statistics on:
• Income
• Commodities sold
• Concentration ratios
• Expenditure
• Profit margins
• Employment
• Capital expenditure
Trade
industry
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The trade industry is responsible for 15% of SA economic production
Shares of
nominal GDP
2016
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14,2%
15,0%
12,0%
12,5%
13,0%
13,5%
14,0%
14,5%
15,0%
15,5%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
The trade industry contribution to GDP has grown slightly over the years
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Income
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The trade industry generated R3,17 trillion in income during 2015
1,13
1,331,49
1,56
2,39
3,17
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
2005 2006 2007 2009 2012 2015
R t
rilli
on
That’s just over R100 000 generated per second!
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Wholesale52%
Retail26%
Motor trade19%
Food & beverages
2%
Accommodation1%
Wholesale trade generated just over half of total income in 2015
Total income
R3,17 trillion
Percentages have been rounded and may not sum to 100% Only includes formal business activities
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R2 106 025m (66%)
R392 234m (12%)
R674 071m (21%)
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
Large enterprises Medium enterprises Small and micro enterprises
R m
illio
nLarge enterprises generated two-thirds of the R3,17 trillion in income
2015
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Building material & hardware
32%
Machinery & equipment
22%
Food & beverages
19%
Other27%
What are the most popular sources of income in each industry (2015)?
Wholesale
Food & beverages
42%
Clothing16%
Medical & cosmetics
11%
Other32%
Retail
New vehicles
33%
Fuel29%
Parts18%
Used vehicles
17%
Other4%
Motor*
Food and snacks
81%
Non-alcoholic drinks
9%
Wines5%
Other5%
Food & beveragesAccommodation
*New and used vehicles includes both retail and wholesale sales
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Cape Town14%
Johannesburg14%
Tshwane9%
eThekwini7%
Other districts51%
49%
Accommodation: almost half of available rooms* are in five cities
Eku-
Rhuleni
4%
*The unit of accommodation available to be charged out to guests; for example, a powered site in a caravan park or a room in a hotel.
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Motor trade: vehicle sales* – number of units sold in 2012 and 2015
*Only includes retail sales; excludes wholesale sales of vehicles
Total: 412 819 Total: 384 860 Total: 412 964 Total: 378 499
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Concentration
ratios
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What do concentration ratios tell us?
If an industry is dominated by
a few large players, then it’s
regarded as monopolistic.
This can hinder competition
and present a barrier to new
entrants into the market
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Proportion of income earned by the top 10 largest enterprises
Retail and accommodation are dominated by a few large companies
15%
15%
21%
38%
42%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Food & beverages
Wholesale
Motor
Accommodation
Retail
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The motor trade industry has become less concentrated over time
Proportion of income earned by the top 10 largest enterprises
33%26% 23% 21%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2006 2009 2012 2015
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And so has accommodation
Proportion of income earned by the top 10 largest enterprises
55%50%
44%38%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2009 2012 2015
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Concentration in retail trade, however, has increased over time
Proportion of income earned by the top 10 largest enterprises
39% 40% 41% 42%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2009 2012 2015
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Expenditure
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A total of R3,09 trillion was spent by the trade industries in 2015
Wholesale52%
Retail26%
Motor19%
Food & beverages
2%
Accommodation1%
Total expenditure
R3,09 trillion
Percentages have been rounded and may not sum to 100%
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What did each division spend money on?
17%
50%
85%
75%
83%
24%
20%
7%
10%
6%
58%
30%
9%
16%
11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Accommodation
Food & beverages
Motor
Retail
Wholesale
Purchases Employment costs Other expenditure
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Profit margin
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The profit margin rose in 2015 to 2,6%
1,8%1,9% 1,9%
1,6%
2,6%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pro
fit m
arg
in
Profit margin for the entire trade industry (net loss/profit after tax as a percentage of turnover)
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Casino income contributed to accommodation’s high profit margin
Profit margin (net loss/profit after tax)
2,0%
2,0%
2,5%
2,6%
2,9%
9,9%
0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0%
Motor trade
Food and beverages
Wholesale trade
All trades
Retail trade
Accommodation
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In fact, casinos contribute just over a third of total accommodation income
Accommodation 59%
Casino facilities
34%
Functions 4%
Other services
3%
2015
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Employment
Photo: http://www.mediaclub.co.za, Chris Kirchhoff
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The trade industry is the third largest employer in the formal business sector
Community services
27%
Business services
23%
Trade 22%
Manufacturing 12%
Other16%
Source: Quarterly Employment Statistics (QES), June 2017 (Table B)
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The trade industry employed 1,9 million people in 2015
0,3 millionNumber of jobs
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1
2
Retail – 44% (812 104 people)
3
4
5
Retail is the largest employer in the trade industry (2015)
Wholesale – 26% (490 037 people)
Motor – 15% (270 440 people)
Food & beverages – 9% (174 601 people)
Accommodation – 6% (109 196 people)
1
2
3
4
5
1,9 million
people
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28%
34%
56%
57%
59%
47%
72%
66%
44%
43%
41%
53%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Motor
Wholesale
Accommodation
Retail
Food & beverages
All trades
Female Male
Female employees outnumber male employees in three divisions
2015
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But employees in those three divisions earn the lowest salaries
Average income for all employees
R 174 135
R 126 151
R 84 380R 87 852
R 47 037
R 202 823
R 146 905
R 93 632 R 91 716
R 60 761
R 0
R 50 000
R 100 000
R 150 000
R 200 000
R 250 000
Wholesale Motor Retail Accommodation Food & beverages
2012
2015
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Income vs employment (2015)
52%
26%
19%
2% 1%
26%
44%
15%
9%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Wholesale trade Retail trade industry Motor trade industry Food and beverages Accommodation
Income Employment
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Income vs employment: large enterprises (2015)
70,3% 70,1%67,0%
61,7%
41,3%
50,6%
66,0%
40,3% 40,0% 39,3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Accommodation Retail Wholesale Motor Food & beverages
Income Employment
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Capital
expenditure
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Wholesale39%
Retail32%
Motor15%
Food & beverages
4%
Accommodation11%
Wholesale spend the most on acquiring new assets (2015)
Total capital
expenditure
R49,9 billion
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Thank you