the south china sea tensions - europa
TRANSCRIPT
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The South China Sea tensions:
implications for global security
Subcommittee for Security and Defence (SEDE)
European Parliament
22 March 2017
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South China Sea
• Strategic
• Geopolitical
• Economic • Way ahead?
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South China Sea
Key recent developments:
• 2009 China’s deposition of claims at UN CLCS
• 2013 evidence of China’s island-building; PH file complaint
• 2016 PCA ruling on the PH-CN case
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China’s land reclamation
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Vietnam’s land reclamation
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Strategic implications
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Strategic implications
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Strategic implications
The SCS “strategic triangle”
• China’s announced
build up on
Scarborough Shoal
• Possibility of
militarisation
• Full strategic control
(incl. eventual
ADIZ)
900 km
700 km
650 km
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China’s ‘hybrid’ approach to the SCS
Use of non-conventional methods • Use of civilian elements: coast guards,
fishing fleet, SOA, etc.
• Administrative inclusion; development of
tourism; scientific cooperation
• ‘Salami-slicing’ > fait accompli
Use of economic & diplomatic
pressure
• Bilateral negotiations with claimants
• Use of trade and investment incentives
• ‘Bullying’
Centrally coordinated / achieving a
specific objective
• Territorial integrity non-negotiable
• SCS is a ‘core national interest’
• Non-intervention into domestic affairs
Generating ambiguity • Discourse vs. reality
• Disrespect of IL and bilateral agreements
• Self-interested interpretations of UNCLOS
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Geopolitical impact
SCS
US
Japan
ASEAN
India, Australia,
EU…
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Geopolitical impact
Naval capabilities as of 2016 (IISS Military Balance 2017)
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Geopolitical impact
• Changing balance of power > SCS pivotal to ‘pivots’
• Deterioration of diplomatic relations > weakening of RSA
• Risk of accidental clashes > escalation
• Lack of a binding Code of Conduct
• Lack of governance > difficulty to cooperate on functional
security issues
• Environmental deterioration and resource depletion
• Failure of IL?
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Why?
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Economic interests
Oil & gas?
• Media reports
misleading
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Economic interests
SLOCs
• USD 5 trillion-worth
of trade/ year
• Main oil and LNG
trade routes
• Involvement of ‘user’
states – beyond
SCS
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Economic interests
Fisheries
• 12% of global fish catch
• Fish stock collapsing (IUU fishing, overfishing, coral reef depletion)
• Major long-term economic and social impact for coastal states
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Way ahead?
“We cannot stop China
from doing this…, even
the Americans were not
able to stop it”
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Way ahead?
• United international front > rules-based international system
• Sustained interest and naval presence (FoN principles)
• Environmental solutions - LME governance; Paris Convention –
Chapter 14 > preserving marine habitat by 2030 (UN legitimacy)
• Continue CBM and PD – HLD with ASEAN + building resilience of
individual MSs > focus on functional maritime security issues &
crisis prevention mechanisms
• G7 pressure (G7 WG on SCS?)
• Enforcement mechanisms? ‘Maritime PKO’?
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Way ahead?
• How far is ‘too far’?
• Future of a rules-based international system?
• What EU policy… and what tools?
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Thank you