the southwest indian ocean cyclone basin€¦ · •conversion factor between 1 min and 10 min...
TRANSCRIPT
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Intense TC « Edzani », 09 January 2010, 0428 Z, METOP
The SouthWest Indian Ocean cyclone basin
Bondo
Indlala
Gamede
Favio
2006-2007 TC season
Composite image
Sébastien Langlade
Tropical cyclone forecaster – RSMC La Reunion
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OUTLINE
1. Introduction- Global cyclonic activity
2. Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) TC activity
• Practices in use
• Mean synoptic pattern over SWIO
• Monthly and space distribution
• Interannual evolution
• Typical tracks
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OUTLINE
1. Introduction- Global cyclonic activity
2. Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) TC activity
• Practices in use
• Mean synoptic pattern over SWIO
• Monthly and space distribution
• Interannual evolution
• Typical tracks
![Page 4: The SouthWest Indian Ocean cyclone basin€¦ · •Conversion factor between 1 min and 10 min winds changes from 0,80 to 0,88 •Gust factor changes from 1,5 to 1,41. Recommandations](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042215/5ebbee0413d71227b7686368/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
DEFINITIONS:
A tropical cyclone is the generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale low-pressure system over
tropical or sub-tropical waters with organized convection (i.e. thunderstorm activity) and
definite cyclonic surface wind circulation (Holland 1993)
Max wind < 34 kt Tropical depression
33 kt < max wind < 64 kt Tropical storm
Max wind > 63 kt « hurricane » (north ATL, NEPAC)
« typhoon » (the NWPAC west of the dateline)
« severe tropical cyclone » (the SWPAC and SEI east of 90E)
« very severe cyclonic storm » (the North IND)
« tropical cyclone » (the SWIO)
TC Gafilo, march 04
TC Frances , august 04
Basic definitions
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Cyclone basins
?
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Tropical cyclone: a major threat
Wind and storm surge damage during super typhoon Hayan, november 2013, Philippines.
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World cyclone watch
A specific organisation leaded by WMO : 6 RSMCs (Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres) and 6
TCWCs (Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres)
TCP, tropical cyclones programme, programme of the World Weather Watch created in 1972 by WMO
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OUTLINE
1. Introduction- Global cyclonic activity
2. Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) TC activity
• Practices in use
• Mean synoptic pattern over SWIO
• Monthly and space distribution
• Interannual evolution
• Typical tracks
![Page 9: The SouthWest Indian Ocean cyclone basin€¦ · •Conversion factor between 1 min and 10 min winds changes from 0,80 to 0,88 •Gust factor changes from 1,5 to 1,41. Recommandations](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042215/5ebbee0413d71227b7686368/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The South West Indian Ocean cyclone basin
Tropical cyclone
comitee:
15 members states
KENYA
Area of Responsability extended southwards (30S 40S) and northwards (05S 0)
since september 2003.
Sept 1985:
Eastern border
shift:
80E 90E
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The South West Indian Ocean cyclone basin
• Partial geostationnary coverage until may 1998 !
• TC tracking and analysis mainly based on
polar satellite data before.
• Satellite imagery reception issues and lack of digital
Imagery until november 1990
→ Heterogeneous quality of the TC data base
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Practices in the SWIO :
• Dvorak scale used since 1982
• Wind-Pressure relationship: newly used of Courtney&Knaff (2009) – Atkinson &
Holliday (1977) used before
• Criteria: average wind (10mn)
Modifications in September 1999 :
• Conversion factor between 1 min and 10 min winds changes from 0,80 to 0,88
• Gust factor changes from 1,5 to 1,41.
Recommandations from Harper et.al (2010):
Conversion factor from 1min to 10 min is 0.93 (open sea)
Gust factor for a 3 sec gust associated with a 10 min average wind is 1.23 (open
sea)
Dvorak scale used in the South West Indian Ocean
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WIND FORCE STAGE
No clear circulation center Disturbance area
< 28 kt (< 51 km/h) Tropical disturbance
28-33 kt (51-63 km/h) Tropical depression
34-47kt (63-88 km/h) Moderate tropical storm
48-63 kt (89-117 km/h) Severe tropical storm
64-89 kt (118-165 km/h) Tropical cyclone
90-115kt (166-212 km/h) Intense tropical cyclone
> 115 kt (> 212 km/h) Very intense tropical cyclone
The wind force is averaged
over 10 mn.
Classification of tropical disturbances in the South West Indian Ocean
basin
NAMING
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List changing on 1st july
Naming in the South West Indian Ocean
List of names defined during the Tropical
Cyclone Comitee (TCC, every 2 years),
among the propositions of the 15 members
Naming criteria –Op plan:
•Gale force winds (observed or estimated) present
near the low pressure center in a significant
portion of the cyclonic circulation.
• Both tropical and subtropical disturbances can
be named
Naming :
• Mauritius east of 55E
• Madagascar west of 55E
TC names 2017/2018
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OUTLINE
1. Introduction- Global cyclonic activity
2. Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) TC activity
• Practices in use
• Mean synoptic pattern over SWIO
• Monthly and space distribution
• Interannual evolution
• Typical tracks
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Equatorial wind patternsHastenrath etal., 2004
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Austral summer (January to March)
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Austral summer (January to March)
H
L
h
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Austral summer (January to March)
Monsoon Trough
(MT)
H
L
h
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Austral summer (January to March)
equator
Monsoon Trough définition:
Low level trough (surface to 850 hPa) located
within the mixing area between the monsoon
and tradewinds flow. Associated equatorial
winds have a strong meridional component.
→ Low level large scale vorticity associated.
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Austral summer (January to March)
Equator
Monsoon Trough
(MT)
18th February 2009 Winds at 925 hPa
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Austral winter (June to August)
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Austral winter (June to August)
H
L
H L
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Austral winter (June to August)
≥ 28 kt
≥ 16 kt
≤ 4 kt≤ 4 kt
≥ 16 ktBuffer area
H
L
H L
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Austral winter (June to August)
15th August 2009
Equator
Buffer area
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Austral spring / autumn
15th August 2009
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Austral spring / autumn
15th August 2009
h
l
H L
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Austral spring / autumn
≥ 8 kt
≥ 16 kt
Near Equatorial
Trough (NET)
h
l
H L
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Austral spring / autumn
equator
Near Equatorial Trough
définition:
Low level trough (surface to 850 hPa)
associated with equatorial winds with a strong
zonal (westerly) component.
→ Low level large scale vorticity associated.
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Austral spring / autumn
equator
Winds at 925 hPa
12th December 2008
Near Equatorial Troughs (NET)
→ Double Near Equatorial Troughs
(DNET)
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OUTLINE
1. Introduction- Global cyclonic activity
2. Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) TC activity
• Practices in use
• Mean synoptic pattern over SWIO
• Monthly and space distribution
• Interannual evolution
• Typical tracks
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Monthly variation of cyclone activity in the South-West Indian Ocean
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Aoû
t
Sep
tem
bre
Oct
obre
Nov
embr
e
Déc
embr
e
Janv
ier
Fév
rier
Mar
s
Avr
il
Mai
Juin
Juille
t
Nom
bre
de jo
urs
cum
ulés
d'a
ctiv
ité
(moy
enne
sur
la p
ério
de 1
967-
1997
)
Tempêtes
Cyclones
Monthly variation in cyclone activity (cumulated days)
Each saison : 1 july to 30 june, since july 2002 (before :1 august to 31 july). 9/10 of tropical
disturbances are formed from the 15th of november to the 30th of april, period usually called
« official cyclonic season »
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Monthly variation of cyclone activity in the South-West Indian Ocean
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Aoû
t
Sep
tem
bre
Oct
obre
Nov
embr
e
Déc
embr
e
Janv
ier
Fév
rier
Mar
s
Avr
il
Mai
Juin
Juille
t
Nom
bre
de jo
urs
cum
ulés
d'a
ctiv
ité
(moy
enne
sur
la p
ério
de 1
967-
1997
)
Tempêtes
Cyclones
Monthly variation in cyclone activity (cumulated days)
Each saison : 1 july to 30 june, since july 2002 (before :1 august to 31 july). 9/10 of tropical
disturbances are formed from the 15th of november to the 30th of april, period usually called
« official cyclonic season »
Buffer
Area
TPE TM TPEBuffer
Area
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Cyclogenesis over the basin from 1966 to 2000
• Main Developement Region:
5S-15S / 50E-90E
• Few cyclogenesis south of 20S and north of 5S
• 13% of the cyclogenesis over the Mozambique
Channel.
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OUTLINE
1. Introduction- Global cyclonic activity
2. Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) TC activity
• Practices in use
• Mean synoptic pattern over SWIO
• Monthly and space distribution
• Interannual evolution
• Typical tracks
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Inter-annual variation of TS/TC number
1985-2015 mean values: 9.9 named systems with 5 TC per year
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Inter-annual variation of TS/TC days
1985-2015 mean values: 43.5 TS/TC days with 14.7 TC days per year
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Inter-annual variation of TC activity
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Inter-annual variation of TC activity
El-Nino (ENSO +)
Positive Southern Indian Ocean Dipole
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OUTLINE
1. Introduction- Global cyclonic activity
2. Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) TC activity
• Practices in use
• Mean synoptic pattern over SWIO
• Monthly and space distribution
• Interannual evolution
• Typical tracks
![Page 40: The SouthWest Indian Ocean cyclone basin€¦ · •Conversion factor between 1 min and 10 min winds changes from 0,80 to 0,88 •Gust factor changes from 1,5 to 1,41. Recommandations](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042215/5ebbee0413d71227b7686368/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
3
1. TC ALBERTINE 23/11 -
03/12/94
2. TC BELLAMINE 29/10 -
12/11/96
3. TC BONITA 03/01 - 15/01/96
4. TC HUDAH 24/03 – 09/04/00
5. TC HYACINTHE 15/01 -
31/01/80
6. TC ODILLE 29/03 - 17/04/94
7. TS DESSILIA 16/01 - 24/01/93
1
1
4
4
5
35
6
6
7
7
2
2
Parabolic tracks
Zonal tracks
Some typical tracks
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Some typical tracks
Ash & Matyas, 2010
Influence of ENSO and SIOD on
SWIO TC tracks:
-ENSO + / SIOD -
→ more polewards tracks
-ENSO ~ or ENSO - / SIOD +
→ more westwards tracks
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Some typical tracks
North of 15S 15S-20S South of 20S
MADAGASCAR
MOZAMBIQUE
MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS
La Réunion Mauritius Rodrigues
TC impacts over SWIO inhabited areas
(67/68 → 12/13)
→ relationship between track typo / genesis location and impacted areas
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Thank you for your attention !