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Eradicating world hunger –taking stock ten years after

the World Food Summit

The State of Food Insecurity in the World

2006

Acknowledgements

The State of Food Insecurity in theWorld 2006 was prepared by Jakob Skoet and Kostas Stamoulis,Agricultural and DevelopmentEconomics Division, under the generalsupervision of Prabhu Pingali, Directorof the same division. Ricardo Sibrian,Statistics Division, coordinated thestatistical inputs and analysis to thepublication. Consultant Jorge Merniesprovided advice in the planning stage.

Background papers and draft sectionswere prepared by Shahla Shapouri,Economic Research Service of the UnitedStates Department of Agriculture; Tugrul Temel, Agricultural Economicsand Rural Policy Group, WageningenUniversity; and Sumiter Broca, FAO Global Perspectives Studies Unit.

The following FAO staff and consultantsprovided technical contributions:Margarita Flores, Aasa Giertz andKristian Jakobsen, Agricultural andDevelopment Economics Division; DeepFord, Commodities and Trade Division;Jelle Bruinsma, Gerold Boedeker andJoseph Schmidhuber, GlobalPerspective Studies Unit; Cinzia Cerri,Amanda Gordon, SeevalingumRamasawmy, Mohamed Barre andNathalie Troubat, Statistics Division;David Sedik, Regional Office for Europe;and Nasredin Elamin, Regional Officefor the Near East.

The key estimates on food consumptionand undernourishment used in TheState of Food Insecurity in the World2006 were produced by the Basic Food

and Agriculture Statistics Service andthe Socio-Economic Statistics andAnalysis Service of the FAO StatisticsDivision.

Projections of food consumption andundernourishment in 2015 wereprepared by the FAO Global PerspectiveStudies Unit.

The Electronic Publishing Policy andSupport Branch of the General Affairsand Information Department (GI)provided editorial, language editing,graphic and production services.Translations were provided by theMeeting Programming andDocumentation Service of GI.

Published in 2006 by theFood and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsViale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy

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The designations employed and the presentation of material in the maps do not imply the expressionof any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal or constitutional status of anycountry, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers.

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Eradicating world hunger–taking stock ten years after

the World Food Summit

The State of Food Insecurity in the World

2006

Ten years ago, world leadersmet in Rome for the WorldFood Summit (WFS) to discuss ways to end hunger. They pledged their commitment toan ongoing effort to eradicatehunger in all countries and setthemselves the immediate target ofhalving the number ofundernourished people by 2015. To this purpose, they approved the World Food Summit Plan ofAction. In October 2006, FAO’sCommittee on World Food Securityis undertaking an assessment of the implementation of the Plan of Action and a mid-termreview of progress towardsachieving the target.

The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 reviews progressand setbacks in hunger reduction

since 1990–92, the establishedbaseline period.

The first section of the report,Undernourishment around the world, reviews trends in hungerat the global, regional andsubregional levels. It also presentsFAO’s most recent projections ofundernourishment in 2015.

The second section,Undernourishment in the regions,reviews the food security situation ineach of the major developingregions and the transition countries.

The third section, Towards the Summit commitments,summarizes lessons from pastexperience in hunger reduction and presents FAO’s current thinking on how to accelerateprogress towards meeting the WFStarget.

Two tables (pp. 32–38) providedetailed information on levels ofundernourishment in developing andtransition countries and otherindicators relevant to food security.The report also includes maps (page 31) illustrating the global foodsecurity situation and progress inhunger reduction.

The State of Food Insecurity in the World 20062

About this report

Commitments

1 We will ensure an enabling political, social, and economicenvironment designed to create the best conditions for the eradication of poverty and for durable peace, based onfull and equal participation of women and men, which ismost conducive to achieving sustainable food security for all.

2 We will implement policies aimed at eradicating povertyand inequality and improving physical and economic accessby all, at all times, to sufficient, nutritionally adequate andsafe food and its effective utilization.

3 We will pursue participatory and sustainable food,agriculture, fisheries, forestry and rural developmentpolicies and practices in high and low potential areas,which are essential to adequate and reliable food suppliesat the household, national, regional and global levels, andcombat pests, drought and desertification, considering themultifunctional character of agriculture.

4 We will strive to ensure that food, agricultural trade andoverall trade policies are conducive to fostering foodsecurity for all through a fair and market-oriented worldtrade system.

5 We will endeavour to prevent and be prepared for naturaldisasters and man-made emergencies and to meettransitory and emergency food requirements in ways thatencourage recovery, rehabilitation, development and acapacity to satisfy future needs.

6 We will promote optimal allocation and use of public andprivate investments to foster human resources, sustainablefood, agriculture, fisheries and forestry systems, and ruraldevelopment, in high and low potential areas.

7 We will implement, monitor, and follow-up this Plan ofAction at all levels in cooperation with the internationalcommunity.

The World Food Summit Plan of Action

Foreword

4 Despite setbacks, the race against hunger can be won

Undernourishment around the world

8 Counting the hungry: trends in the developing world and

countries in transition

Undernourishment in the regions

14 Asia and the Pacific

17 Latin America and the Caribbean

20 Near East and North Africa

23 Sub-Saharan Africa

26 Countries in transition

Towards the Summit commitments

28 The way ahead: strengthening efforts for eradicating hunger

31 Maps

32 Tables

39 Notes

The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 3

Contents

In November 1996, the worldturned its attention to Rome,where heads of State andGovernment of more than 180 nationsattending the World Food Summit(WFS) pledged to eradicate one of theworst scourges weighing on society’scollective conscience: hunger. As animportant step towards this noble andlong overdue objective, world leaderscommitted themselves to what wasconsidered an ambitious butattainable intermediate target: tohalve by 2015 the number ofundernourished people in the worldfrom the 1990 level. Ten years later,we are confronted with the sad realitythat virtually no progress has beenmade towards that objective.Compared with 1990–92, the numberof undernourished people in thedeveloping countries has declined bya meagre 3 million – a number withinthe bounds of statistical error. This isthe situation facing representatives ofthe Committee on World FoodSecurity, meeting in Rome this year totake stock of progress and setbacksexperienced since the Summit and topropose further action.

Not all news is dismal, however.Despite disappointing performancesin reducing the number of hungrypeople, a smaller percentage of thepopulations of developing countriesis undernourished today comparedwith 1990–92: 17 percent against 20 percent. Furthermore, FAO’sprojections suggest that theproportion of hungry people indeveloping countries in 2015 couldbe about half of what it was in1990–92: a drop from 20 to 10 percent. This means that theworld is on a path towards meetingthe Millennium Development Goalon hunger reduction. The sameprojections, however, also indicatethat the WFS target could be missed:some 582 million people could still

be undernourished in 2015 versus412 million if the WFS goal were tobe met.

The news cannot come as asurprise. Time and again, throughThe State of Food Insecurity in theWorld as well as other channels,FAO has pointed out that insufficientprogress is being made in alleviatinghunger. This publication hashighlighted the discrepancy betweenwhat could (and should) be done,and what is actually being done forthe millions of people suffering fromhunger. We have emphasized firstand foremost that reducing hungeris no longer a question of means inthe hands of the global community.The world is richer today than it wasten years ago. There is more foodavailable and still more could beproduced without excessive upwardpressure on prices. The knowledgeand resources to reduce hunger arethere. What is lacking is sufficientpolitical will to mobilize thoseresources to the benefit of thehungry. Past issues of this reporthave stressed the urgency ofaccelerating the pace in what hasliterally been termed as “the raceagainst hunger”. They havereiterated the need to move fromrhetoric to concrete action.

Hunger reduction: challenges and priorities

When observing global trends in thenumber of undernourished people, itis almost a natural reaction to dismissthe period since the WFS as a “lostdecade”. To do so, however, would bea serious mistake. It would compoundexisting scepticism and would riskdetracting from positive action beingtaken. It would also obscure the factthat much has been accomplished insecuring a top place for hunger on thedevelopment agenda.


Foreword

Despite setbacks, the race against hunger can be won

What also warrants clarification isthat the stagnation in the overallnumber of undernourished peoplereflects the net outcome of progressin some countries combined withsetbacks in others. Even within asingle country, it is not uncommonto find differences among regions.

Experiences documented so farshow that hunger reduction ispossible, even in some of thepoorest countries in the world.There is much to be learnt fromthese successful cases. Countriesexperiencing setbacks, on the otherhand, underscore the need for us toscale up proven models andstrategies while, at the same time,sharpening the focus on problemareas where hunger is endemic andpersistent.

Among the developing regionstoday, the greatest challenge is theone facing sub-Saharan Africa. It isthe region with the highestprevalence of undernourishment,with one in three people deprived ofaccess to sufficient food. FAO’sprojections suggest that theprevalence of hunger in this regionwill decline by 2015 but that the

number of hungry people will not fallbelow that of 1990–92. By then, sub-Saharan Africa will be home toaround 30 percent of theundernourished people in thedeveloping world, compared with 20 percent in 1990–92.

A number of countries sufferingsetbacks in hunger reduction areexperiencing conflict or other formsof disaster. But, likewise, projectionsshow a formidable task ahead forcountries which may be free ofconflict, but which rely on a pooragricultural resource base andexhibit weak overall economic andinstitutional development in the faceof persistently high rates ofpopulation growth.

When assessing progress withincountries, it is generally in the ruralareas that hunger is concentrated.At present, it is in these areas thatthe majority of poor and food-insecure people live. In turn, urbanpoverty tends to be fuelled by peoplemigrating towards the cities in anattempt to escape the deprivationsassociated with rural livelihoods.Partly due to the rural decline, theworld is urbanizing at a fast pace


Number of undernourished people in the developing world

1

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Millions of undernourished1 000

900800700600500400300200100

0

Source: FAO

Path to theMillenniumDevelopment Goal target

Path to theWorld Food

Summit target

World FoodSummit base

period (1990–92)

Trend

and it will not be long before agreater part of developing countrypopulations is living in large cities.Therefore, urban food security andits related problems should also beplaced high on the agenda in theyears to come.

Twin track – a tried and effectiveapproach

The concentration of hunger in ruralareas suggests that no sustainedreduction in hunger is possiblewithout special emphasis onagricultural and rural development.In countries and regions wherehunger remains widespread,agriculture often holds the key toachieving both economic progressand sustained reductions inundernourishment. History hastaught us that, in general, thosecountries that have managed toreduce hunger have not onlyexperienced more rapid overalleconomic growth but have alsoachieved greater gains inagricultural productivity than thoseexperiencing setbacks or stagnation.

It follows that investments inagriculture, and more broadly in the

rural economy, are often aprerequisite for accelerated hungerreduction. The agriculture sectortends to be the engine of growth forentire rural economies, andproductivity-driven increases inagricultural output can expand foodsupplies and reduce food prices inlocal markets, raise farm incomesand boost the overall local economyby generating demand for locallyproduced goods and services.

By now, it is well understood that hunger compromises the health and productivity of individuals and their efforts toescape poverty. It acts as a brake onthe potential economic and socialdevelopment of whole societies. It isno coincidence that more rapidadvances have been made in povertyreduction as opposed to hungeralleviation. Indeed, escaping povertyseems to be much more difficult forhungry people, who aredisadvantaged in their capacity to earn a livelihood. Acceleratinghunger reduction consequentlyrequires direct measures to helppeople who are both poor and ill-fedto escape the hunger-poverty trap.Empirical evidence from an


Progress and setbacks in hunger reduction from 1990–92 to 2001–03

2

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Countries having achieved the WFS targetCountries having progressed towards the WFS target Setback countries Source: FAO

Transition countries

Sub-Saharan Africa

Near East and North Africa

Latin America and the Caribbean

Change in number of undernourished people (millions)

Asia and the Pacific

increasing number of countriesillustrates the powerful contributionthat direct and carefully targetedmeasures can make to both hungerand poverty reduction.

A twin-track approach,emphasizing direct action againsthunger along with a focus onagricultural and rural development, is effective in providing the mostvulnerable and food-insecure peoplewith new livelihood possibilities andhope for a better life. Efforts topromote the twin-track approach asthe principal strategic framework forhunger reduction should therefore beat the centre of poverty reductioninitiatives at all levels.

Reaching the WFS goal: it can be done

Conditions are currently ripe forhastening effective hunger reductionstrategies and moving countriesdecisively towards the WFS targetand beyond – towards the totaleradication of world hunger. It is fairto say that the internationalcommunity today pays moreattention to hunger as an intrinsicand pressing development issue.Hunger has been raised to a moreprominent position in national anti-poverty programmes and similarinitiatives, and there is morewidespread and vocalacknowledgement of the fact that thepersistence of chronic hunger in themidst of plenty is an unacceptablecontradiction. On the part ofgovernments, civil society and otherorganizations, there is a greaterawareness of the steps that need tobe taken and, more importantly, theresolve to instigate and catalyse thenecessary action appears to havebeen strengthened.

Today, ten years after the WFS wecan resume the “race against

hunger” with renewed vigour,seeking to honour the commitmentsmade ten years ago but, ideally,aiming well beyond the WFS target.We must dispel any complacencythat may be engendered by theabundance of world food supplies, bythe general increase in agriculturalproductivity, or by the expansion ofinternational trade possibilities. The coexistence of food abundanceor even overnutrition with fooddeprivation, even in the samecountries or communities, has beena reality for decades and, unlessconditions conducive to chronichunger are eliminated, the twoextremes will continue to coexist inthe future.

Is the 2015 WFS target stillattainable? The answer should be aresounding “Yes”, as long asconcrete and concerted action,following the WFS Plan of Action, istaken and stepped up immediately.Already ten years ago, signatories tothe Rome Declaration emphasizedthe urgency of the task “for whichthe primary responsibility rests withindividual governments”, but forwhich cooperation with internationalorganizations and civil society –including both public and privatesectors – is vital. Today, we areconfident that the race againsthunger can still be won, but only ifthe necessary resources, politicalwill and correct policies areforthcoming. We fully agree with theprincipal conclusion of the UNMillennium Project’s Hunger TaskForce: It can be done.

Jacques DioufFAO Director-General


Ten years after the 1996 RomeWorld Food Summit (WFS), thenumber of undernourishedpeople in the world remainsstubbornly high. In 2001–03, FAOestimates there were still 854 millionundernourished people worldwide: 820 million in the developingcountries, 25 million in the transitioncountries and 9 million in theindustrialized countries.2

Virtually no progress has beenmade towards the WFS target ofhalving the number of under-nourished people by 2015. Since1990–92, the baseline period for theWFS target, the undernourishedpopulation in the developing countrieshas declined by only 3 million people:from 823 million to 820 million. Thiscontrasts starkly with the reduction of37 million achieved in the 1970s andof 100 million in the 1980s. Moreover,the most recent trends are a causefor concern – a decline of 26 million between 1990–92 and1995–97 was followed by an increaseof 23 million up to 2001–03.

Because of population growth, thevery small decrease in the number ofhungry people has nevertheless

resulted in a reduction in theproportion of undernourished peoplein the developing countries by 3 percentage points – from 20 percent in 1990–92 to 17 percentin 2001–03. This means thatprogress has continued towards thefirst Millennium Development Goal(MDG 1) of halving the percentage ofundernourished people by 2015.However, progress over this period

was slower than over the previoustwo decades, when the prevalence ofundernourishment declined by 9 percent (from 37 percent to 28 percent) between 1969–71 and 1979–81 and by a further 8 percentage points (to 20 percent)between 1979–81 and 1990–92.3

Success in meeting the WFS targetwill require a reversal of recenttrends in the number of hungry



Counting the hungry: trends in the developing worldand countries in transition1

The World Food Summit in 1996 established the target of halving the number ofundernourished people by no later than 2015. FAO uses the average of the period1990–92 as the baseline for monitoring progress towards this target.

One of the two targets of the first Millennium Development Goal is to halve, between1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger.

The WFS target is the more ambitious of the two. Indeed, continued population growthmeans that the proportion of hungry people in the developing countries will need to becut by much more than half if the target is to be met. If the MDG target is achieved in2015 by the developing countries as a group, current population projections suggest thatwe will still be left with around 585 million undernourished, far more (173 million) thanthe WFS target of 412 million. On the other hand, reaching the WFS target will require areduction in the proportion of undernourished in the developing countries to 7 percent,which is 10 percentage points lower than the current level of 17 percent.

The World Food Summit and Millennium Development Goal targets

Source: FAO* Excluding China and India

Undernourished 2001–03(millions)

3

Number of undernourished and the World Food Summit target

4

World854

Developing world820

Latin America/Caribbean 52

Near East and North Africa 38

Sub-Saharan Africa206

Transitioncountries 25

Developing Asia/ Latin America/ Near East and Sub-Saharan Transition world Pacific Caribbean North Africa Africa countries

Industrializedcountries 9

China 150

India 212

Asia/Pacific* 162

Millions900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

1990–92* 1995–97 2001–03 WFS target

Source: FAO* For the transition countries: 1993–95

people and a sharp acceleration inthe rate of reduction of the proportionof undernourished. Indeed, even ifthe MDG target were to be reached by2015, the WFS target would still befar from being met (see box). In orderto attain the WFS target in thedeveloping countries, the number ofundernourished people must bereduced by 31 million per yearbetween 2001–03 and 2015.

Regional trends inundernourishment4

Global stagnation in hungerreduction masks significantdisparities among regions: Asia andthe Pacific and Latin America andthe Caribbean have seen an overallreduction in both the number andprevalence of undernourishedpeople since the WFS baselineperiod. Nevertheless, in bothregions the average rate ofreduction has fallen short of whatwould be required to halve theundernourished population by 2015.Furthermore, in the case of Asia andthe Pacific the number ofundernourished has reverted to anincreasing trend over the latter partof the decade, although theprevalence has continued to decline.Underlying this reversal are largerabsolute numbers in China and Indiain 2001–03 relative to 1995–97.

On the other hand, both in the NearEast and North Africa and in sub-Saharan Africa the number ofundernourished people has risenduring the 11-year period following theWFS baseline. In sub-Saharan Africa,this represents the continuation of atrend that has been apparent over atleast the last three decades.

In sub-Saharan Africa, recentprogress in reducing the prevalenceof undernourishment is noteworthy.For the first time in several decades,

the share of undernourished peoplein the region’s population saw asignificant decline: from 35 percentin 1990–92 to 32 percent in 2001–03,after having reached 36 percent in1995–97. This is an encouragingdevelopment, but the task facing theregion remains daunting: thenumber of undernourished peopleincreased from 169 million to 206 million while reaching the WFStarget will require a reduction to 85 million by 2015.

The Near East and North Africa is the only region in which both the number and proportion ofundernourished has risen

since 1990–92, albeit from a relatively low base. Following thesignificant reduction in the numbersof undernourished achieved duringthe 1970s, the trend in subsequentdecades has been consistentlyupwards. The decade since the WFSbaseline period constituted noexception, although the rate ofincrease slowed in the later years.

For the transition countries, thenumber of undernourished peoplehas increased slightly, from 23million to 25 million.5 This rise isattributed mainly to higher numbersin the Commonwealth ofIndependent States (CIS), where the


Proportion of undernourished people and the MillenniumDevelopment Goal target

5

Developing Asia/ Latin America/ Near East and Sub-Saharan Transition world Pacific Caribbean North Africa Africa countries

Percentage of population40353025201510

50

1990–92* 1995–97 2001–03 MDG target


Ratio of undernourishment (number and prevalence) in 2001–03 to1990–92

Developing Asia/ Latin America/ Near East and Sub-Saharan Transitionworld Pacific Caribbean North Africa Africa countries*

Ratio2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Source: FAO* For the transition countries the baseline period is 1993–95 rather than 1990–92.

6

Ratio for number – WFS target Ratio for prevalence – MDG target

majority of the region’sundernourished people are found.

The WFS and MDG targets: regional progress and setbacks

The degree of regional progresstowards the WFS and MDG targets isillustrated by Figure 6, which showsthe ratio of the number and theprevalence of undernourished,respectively, in 2001–03 to that of1990–92. A ratio of 0.5 or lowerimplies that the respective target(WFS target for the number andMDG target for the prevalence) hasbeen achieved. A ratio of less than1.0 indicates progress towards thetarget while a ratio of more than 1.0indicates a setback. Only Asia andthe Pacific and Latin America andthe Caribbean have made progresstowards the WFS target, but neitherregion is close to reaching it. Theremaining regions have all movedaway from the target by varyingdegrees.

Prospects for achieving the MDGtarget look more promising. Alldeveloping country regions exceptthe Near East and North Africa havemade inroads towards reducing the

prevalence of undernourishment, andin the cases of Asia and the Pacificand Latin America and the Caribbeanprogress has been quite significant.

Subregional trends inundernourishment6

Regional trends in undernourishmentsince the WFS baseline periodconceal significant differences at thesubregional level, as illustrated byFigures 7 and 8. Within the sub-Saharan Africa region, thesubregions of Southern Africa, EastAfrica and West Africa all saw adecline in the prevalence ofundernourishment (although notnecessarily in the number ofundernourished); by contrast,Central Africa experienced adramatic increase in both thenumber of hungry people andprevalence of undernourishment.

In Asia (where China and India aretreated as separate subregions inview of the size of their populations)significant progress in reducing thenumber of undernourished peoplewas made in China and the populoussubregion of Southeast Asia. In India, on the other hand, the

prevalence of hunger declined, butthe outcome in terms of reducingthe number of undernourished wassmall, as a reduction in the first partof the decade (1990–92 to 1995–97)was subsequently reversed. At thesame time, the number ofundernourished increased in therest of East Asia (excluding China)and, particularly, in the rest of SouthAsia (excluding India).

A significant contribution toprogress towards the WFS target inthe Latin American and Caribbeanregion was made by South America,while the number of hungry peopleincreased in Central America andMexico. In the Near East and NorthAfrica, the absolute number ofundernourished is the smallest ofall the developing country regions,but it increased both in North Africaand in the Near East, with the latteralso seeing an increase in theprevalence of hunger.

Globally, most subregionsexperienced a reduction in theprevalence of undernourishment.However, any significant progresstowards reducing the global numberof undernourished was concentratedin very few, but populous,



GDP in the 1990s and prevalence ofundernourishment in 2000

7Changes in number of undernourished in subregions from 1990–92 to 2001–03

Source: FAOMillions

MexicoNorth Africa

Southern AfricaCentral America

East Asia, excl. ChinaSouth Asia, excl. India

East AfricaNear East

Central Africa

ChinaSoutheast AsiaSouth AmericaIndiaThe CaribbeanWest Africa, excl. NigeriaNigeria

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

GDP in the 1990s and prevalence ofundernourishment in 2000

8Changes in proportion of undernourished in subregions from 1990–92 to 2001–03

Source: FAO

North AfricaMexico

Near EastCentral America

East Asia, excl. ChinaCentral Africa

Southern AfricaWest Africa, excl. NigeriaEast AfricaThe CaribbeanSoutheast AsiaIndiaSouth AmericaNigeriaChinaSouth Asia, excl. India

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25Percentage points

subregions: China, Southeast Asiaand South America.

The World Food Summit target:subregional progress and setbacks

Progress and setbacks in hungerreduction in the subregions areshown in Figure 9. For eachsubregion, the ratio indicating thedistance from the WFS target isplotted against the prevalence ofundernourishment. A ratio between1.0 and 0.5 implies progress towardsthe target whereas one of 0.5 or lessindicates the target has beenachieved or surpassed. A ratiogreater than 1.0 indicates setback.

The two extremes – the BalticStates and Central Africa – illustratethe wide disparity in progress in thefight against hunger. The BalticStates, with the lowest prevalence ofundernourishment, have alreadyreduced the numbers by more thanhalf; Central Africa, with the highestprevalence (56 percent of thepopulation), has been moving rapidlyaway from the WFS target as aresult of a dramatically worsening

food security situation in theDemocratic Republic of the Congo.

Apart from the Baltic States, onlyChina, Southeast Asia, SouthAmerica and the Caribbean havemoved decisively towards the WFStarget. The first three, owing to theirlarge populations, are also thesubregions that have provided themost substantive contributiontowards a reduction in the numberof undernourished. It is also worthnoting that in all these subregions,except the Caribbean, prevalence ofundernourishment is lower than theaverage of the developing countries.

In addition to Central Africa, also East Africa and Southern Africacall for priority attention in view of their high prevalence of under-nourishment. In both subregions, the number of hungry people hascontinued to increase in spite of areduction in the prevalence ofhunger. Substantial acceleration ofprogress will be needed if the WFStarget is to be met. The same appliesto other regions with somewhatlower levels of undernourishmentbut with limited or no progress in

reducing the absolute numbers:South Asia (excluding India), WestAfrica and India.

Other subregions with lower levelsof undernourishment that show aworrying increase in both prevalenceand numbers of undernourished areEast Asia (excluding China) – mainlydue to a worsening situation in theDemocratic People’s Republic ofKorea – the Near East and CentralAmerica.

Clearly, progress towards the WFStarget is concentrated in too fewsubregions and generally in thosewith a prevalence of under-nourishment below the average forthe developing countries. Globalprogress is largely determined by afew subregions with largepopulations, while too many othershave seen virtually no progress orhave even experienced setbacks. Toaccelerate the pace of global hungerreduction, it is essential to halt andreverse the rising trend in numberswhere it occurs and to broadensuccess in hunger reduction to othersubregions. This will evidently becritical in those subregions where the


Progress towards the WFS target: ratio of number of undernourished in 2001–03 to 1990–92* andprevalence of undernourishment in 2001–03


Prevalence of undernourishment 2001–03 (percent)0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Ratio: current number to baseline (2001–03/1990–92*)

.

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Setb

ack

Pro

gres

s

Departing from WFS target

Moving towards WFS target

Beyond WFS target

9

Near East

East Asia, excl. China

North Africa

Eastern Europe Nigeria

South America

Baltic States

ChinaSoutheast Asia

India

Caribbean

East Africa

Southern Africa

Central Africa

Central America

West Africa, excl. Nigeria

South Asia, excl. India

MexicoCIS Oceania

Developing countries

prevalence of undernourishment ismost severe.

Undernourishment in the lead-up to 2015

Despite painfully slow globalprogress in hunger reduction overthe last decade, a positive signcomes from some of FAO’s latestprojections, which indicate anacceleration in the future (see table).7The prevalence of hunger in thedeveloping countries as a group is

projected to drop by exactly half fromthe base rate (in 1990–92) of 20.3percent to 10.1 percent in 2015. If this happens, the MDG hungerreduction target will be met. Thesame cannot be said for the WFScommitment, as the number ofundernourished people in 2015 isexpected to remain in excess of itstarget by 170 million hungry people.

A reduced number of under-nourished people is not envisagedfor all developing regions. Only EastAsia is expected to reach the WFS

target. Sub-Saharan Africa and theNear East and North Africa, on thecontrary, are expected to suffer anincrease, reaching higher numbersin 2015 than in 1990–92.8 LatinAmerica and the Caribbean andSouth Asia, while projected to reachthe MDG target, are not on track forthe WFS target. The recentincreasing trends in the number ofundernourished people in SouthAsia, sub-Saharan Africa and theNear East and North Africa are likelyto be reversed, but, of these three,only South Asia is foreseen to reachthe MDG target.

Food intake and population growth

Projected progress in hungerreduction mirrors significantincreases in average per capita foodconsumption. Despite the overallgains in food consumption, in several countries the increaseswill not be sufficient to allow for asignificant reduction in the number ofundernourished people. In particular,sub-Saharan Africa will still have anaverage per capita daily calorieintake of 2 420 kilocalories (kcal)(2 285 kcal when Nigeria is excluded)in 2015 – close to that of South Asiaat the turn of the century. Low initiallevels of calorie intake, coupled withhigh population growth, willcontribute to the slow reductions inthe number of undernourishedpeople.

Reducing hunger will beparticularly difficult for countriescharacterized by historically veryhigh levels of hunger prevalence,very low food consumption (under 2 200 kcal/person/day in 1999–2001),low economic growth prospects, highpopulation growth rates and alimited agricultural resource base.Thirty-two countries fall into thiscategory – with undernourishment



Projected undernourishment in the developing world

Number of undernourished people Prevalence of undernourishment(millions) (percentage of population)

1990–92* 2015 WFS target 1990–92* 2015 MDG target

Developing countries 823 582 412 20.3 10.1 10.2Sub-Saharan Africa 170 179 85 35.7 21.1 17.9Near East and North Africa 24 36 12 7.6 7.0 3.8Latin America and the Caribbean 60 41 30 13.4 6.6 6.7South Asia 291 203 146 25.9 12.1 13.0East Asia** 277 123 139 16.5 5.8 8.3NotesThe base period for projections is 1999–2001 and not 2001–03. Some small countries have also been excludedfrom the projections.* Data for 1990–92 may differ slightly from numbers reported elsewhere in the report as the projections arebased on undernourishment estimates that do not include the latest revisions.** Includes Southeast Asia.

Trends and projections in per capita food consumption

Developing Sub-Saharan Near East and Latin America/ South Asia East andcountries Africa North Africa Caribbean Southeast Asia

kcal/person/day3 500

3 000

2 500

2 000

1 500

1 000

500

0

Source: FAO

Source: FAO

10

1969–71 1979–81 1989–91 1999–2001 2015

rates ranging from 29 to 72 percentof the population and an averageprevalence of 42 percent. Theircurrent population of 580 million isprojected to rise to 1.39 billion by2050. Their current average foodconsumption of 2 000 kcal/person/dayhas actually fallen below that of 30 years ago. Despite their poorhistorical record, however, severalof these countries could achievesignificant gains by prioritizing thedevelopment of local foodproduction, as other countries havedone in the past.

Undernourishment and poverty

Growth in per capita incomes willcontribute to hunger alleviation byreducing poverty and increasing percapita food demand.9 Higher growthrates in per capita GDP relative tothe 1990s are projected for allregions and country groups, with theexception of East Asia, whichnevertheless remains the region withthe highest growth rate (over 5.0percent/year in per capita terms).

Figure 12 presents trends andprojections for poverty andundernourishment rates, which,significantly, indicate that thepoverty target of MDG 1 (halvingthe proportion of the poor by 2015)will be reached in the baselinescenario.

Different methodologies are usedto estimate poverty and under-nourishment and the figures are not directly comparable. However, a closer look at trends for bothindicators in the developingcountries reveals that poverty hastended to decline more rapidly thanundernourishment. The World Bankand FAO projections for theseindicators suggest that this trendwill continue. In fact, the differencesin calculations notwithstanding,there were 1.5 poor people for everyhungry person in 1990–92; by 2015,the corresponding figures areprojected to be 1.2 to one.

These past trends and projectionssuggest that poverty reduction doesnot benefit proportionately thoseamong the poor who are alsoundernourished. Although thereasons for the slower rate ofhunger reduction are not clear, animportant factor may be that hungeritself acts as a barrier to escapingpoverty (the hunger trap). Pasteditions of The State of FoodInsecurity in the World as well asthe World Food Summit: five yearslater have emphasized that hungeris not only a consequence but also acause of poverty, and that itcompromises the productivepotential of individuals, families andentire nations. In the 2004 edition ofthis report, an extensive analysis ofthe social and economic costs ofhunger was presented.

An important policy implication ofthis relationship would be that, inthe absence of purposeful action,hunger will compromise efforts toreduce poverty globally. Incomegrowth, while necessary, is notalways sufficient for eradicatinghunger. Specific measures targeteddirectly at ensuring access to foodare an indispensable component ofeffective hunger eradication efforts.


Trends and projections for growth in per capita GDP

Developing Sub-Saharan Near East and Latin America/ South Asia East Asia/countries Africa North Africa Caribbean Pacific

Source: World Bank. 2006. Global Economic Prospects 2006, Table 1.2. Washington, DC.

11

1980s 1990s 2001–15Percentage7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

Poverty and undernourishment

1990 2002 2015


30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Source: US$1 poverty rates adapted from World Bank. 2006. Global Economic Prospects.2006. Washington, DC. For undernourishment, see FAO. 2006. World agriculture: towards 2030/2050. Interim report. Prospects for food, nutrition, agriculture and major commodity groups, p. 19. Rome.

12

US$1 poverty

Undernourishment*

* For undernourishment, historical data refer to 1990–92 and 2000–02.

Asia and the Pacific regionaccounts for 68 percent of the developing world’spopulation and 64 percent of itsundernourished population. Theprevalence of undernourishment – at 16 percent of the totalpopulation – is second only toAfrica’s among the developingcountry regions.

Between 1990–92 and 2001–03,the number of undernourishedpeople in the region declined from570 million to 524 million and theprevalence of undernourishmentdropped from 20 to 16 percent. Everycountry except the DemocraticPeople’s Republic of Korea10 saw adecline in prevalence, but it was notsufficient in all cases to compensate

for population growth – only 9 of theregion’s 17 countries reduced thenumber of undernourished people.To reach the WFS target by 2015,progress must be accelerated.

The decline in the number ofhungry people in Asia and the Pacificwas driven mainly by China, whichsaw a reduction from 194 million to150 million. India has the largestnumber of undernourished people inthe world, 212 million – onlymarginally below the 215 millionestimated for 1990–92. Bangladeshand Pakistan, both with high levelsof prevalence, account for 15 percentof the hungry people in the region,with Pakistan showing an increasein both prevalence and in absolutenumber.

Individual country progresstowards the WFS target is shown inFigure 15. No country in the regionhas yet met the target. Twocountries, Myanmar and Viet Nam,have reduced the number ofundernourished people by morethan 25 percent. In addition to these,the most significant progress inrelative terms has been achieved byChina, Thailand and Indonesia. Themost serious deterioration in foodsecurity has been experienced bythe Democratic People’s Republic ofKorea, where the number ofundernourished people more thandoubled: from 3.6 million to 7.9 million.

Fighting hunger: determinants ofsuccess and setbacks

In most countries of the region, themajority of the population – andmost of the poor and food-insecure– live in rural areas. A vibrant ruraleconomy is therefore a prerequisitefor reducing undernourishment.Productivity-driven (yield-increasing) growth in agriculture can




Number of undernourished people: Asia and the Pacific

13

Millions250

200

150

100

50

0

Source: FAO

1990–92 1995–97 2001–03

Proportion of undernourished people: Asia and the Pacific

14


30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Source: FAO

1990–92 1995–97 2001–03

Southeast Asia China East Asia India South Asia(excl. China) (excl. India)

Southeast Asia China East Asia India South Asia(excl. China) (excl. India)

have a strong positive impact on therural non-farm economy throughboosting demand for locallyproduced non-agricultural goodsand by keeping food prices low.Increasing the productivity of small-scale farmers is especially

important as they, and rurallabourers, are more likely to spendthe additional income on food andbasic non-farm products andservices deriving from rural areas.Agricultural growth thus generatesa virtuous cycle in which agricultural

and rural off-farm activities sustaineach other. Such growth can make apowerful contribution towardsreducing the numbers ofundernourished, especially wheninitial income inequality is not toomarked and population growth ismoderate.

China and Viet Nam exemplify thisprocess. From 1990–92 to 2001–03,the number of hungry people inChina declined from 194 million to150 million and the prevalence ofundernourishment from 16 percentto 12 percent. This was achievedthrough strong economic andagricultural growth – real per capitaGDP increased at an average annualrate of 8 percent between 1990 and2003, while per capita agriculturalGDP grew by 2.5 percent and percapita food production by 5.4 percentper year. At the same time, theannual population growth rate wasonly 1 percent.


The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has seen a sharp increase in both the prevalence of under-nourishment and the number of hungry people over the period 1990–92to 2001–03: the prevalence doubled andthe absolute number more than doubled(to almost 8 million people).

The underlying cause appears to have been negative trends in economicgrowth. Statistics on GDP growth

are not available, making it difficult toassess the extent of the problem.However, available data on foodproduction indicate that this variable, in per capita terms, declined at a rate of2.2 percent per year over this period. In 2003, the vast majority of the country’s 23 million people were dependent oncereals received through the publicdistribution system.

Food insecurity in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

Number of undernourished: country progress and setbacks in Asia and the Pacific

Source: FAOPrevalence of undernourishment 2001–03 (percent)0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Ratio: current number to baseline (2001–03/1990–92)

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Setb

ack

Pro

gres

s



Beyond WFS target

15

Dem. People’sRep. of Korea

BangladeshCambodia

Mongolia

ThailandSri Lanka

Lao People’s Dem. Rep.

Pakistan

India

Philippines

Viet Nam

Nepal

ChinaMyanmar

Indonesia

Republic of Korea

Malaysia

In fact, the rapid reduction ofhunger and poverty in China startedmuch earlier, originating with two major agricultural reforms in 1978, when families werepermitted to lease land from thecollectives and state procurementprices for foodgrains, oilcrops andhogs were raised.11 Agriculturaloutput and incomes rosedramatically in response, with rural per capita income increasingby 90 percent between 1980 and1985. From 1985 onwards, ruralnon-farm enterprises also began toexpand rapidly. By 2000 they hadabsorbed about a quarter of therural labour force and werecontributing about 30 percent tonational GDP, while farmhouseholds were deriving almost 50 percent of their incomes from non-farm sources.12 The number of

poor people in rural China fell fromabout 490 million in 1979 to about 90 million in 2002 in terms of theWorld Bank’s US$1-a-day povertyline.13 The number of under-nourished people was reduced from387 million in 1969–71 to the currentfigure of 150 million.

The rate of hunger reduction inChina slowed down during thesecond half of the 1990s.14 This, atleast in part, is attributable to theweak economic performance of the relatively isolated anddisadvantaged rural areas where themajority of the remainingundernourished people are located.The bulk of agricultural outputcomes from about 200 million verysmall (0.65 ha or less) farms.15Recent steps by the Government ofChina to revitalize rural areas holdsout the promise that hunger

reduction can accelerate over thenext decade.

Between 1990–92 and 2001–03,Viet Nam reduced the prevalence ofundernourishment from 31 to 17 percent and the number ofundernourished people from 21 million to 14 million. As in China,accelerated hunger and povertyreduction originated with market-oriented economic and agriculturalreforms, which were implemented in the 1980s. An economic reformprogramme gave farmers controlover land, allowed them to increasesales to the market and reducedagricultural taxation. Also as in thecase of China, the drivers werestrong per capita growth in GDP (5.7 percent/year between 1990 and 2003) and agricultural GDP (2.5 percent/year) as well as rapid expansion in food production.A poverty eradication programmetargeting investments in ruralinfrastructure also contributed toboosting agricultural production andhunger reduction. Viet Nam remainsa low-income country, and keepingup the momentum in reducinghunger presents a formidablechallenge.

Cambodia and India saw virtually no change in the totalnumber of undernourished peopledespite strong growth in per capitaincome of 4 percent per year from 1993 to 2003 in Cambodia and 3.9 percent per year from 1990to 2003 in India. However, the goodoverall economic performance was spread unevenly among sectorsand was not underpinned by strongagricultural growth; per capitaagricultural GDP increased at anannual rate of only 0.7 percentbetween 1993 and 2003 in Cambodiaand by 0.9 percent from 1990 to 2003in India.16



Undernourishment, GDP per capita and agricultural GDP per worker (percentage change 1990–92 to 2001–03)

16

Number of undernourished

GDP per capita Agricultural GDP per worker

Developing world


Source: FAO and World Bank

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

Latin America and theCaribbean is home to some 6 percent of the developingworld’s undernourished people andto 11 percent of its total population. At 10 percent of the region’spopulation, the prevalence of under-nourishment is the second lowestamong the developing regions.

With a reduction in the number ofundernourished people from 59 million in 1990–92 to 52 million in2001–03, the region is makingprogress towards the WFS target,although the pace needs to beaccelerated. Progress is uneven and mostly concentrated in thesubregions of South America andthe Caribbean. Central America, onthe other hand, has witnessed anupward trend in both numbers andprevalence. In Mexico,17 prevalenceremained unchanged at a relativelylow level while the number ofundernourished people increased.

Figure 19 reveals the widedivergence in country progresstowards the WFS target. A fewcountries – Cuba, Guyana and Peru– have already met the target whileChile and Uruguay are very close.Ecuador and Jamaica have reduced

the number of undernourishedpeople by around 25 percent. Braziland Suriname have shown similarprogress. Most countries in SouthAmerica have advanced towards thetarget, but a significant increase inhunger was recorded in the BolivarianRepublic of Venezuela. Setbacks have

also been recorded for most CentralAmerican countries, especiallyGuatemala and Panama. Haiti saw areduction in the number of under-nourished people but, at 47 percentof the population, the prevalence ofundernourishment remains by farthe highest in the region.


Latin America and the Caribbean

Number of undernourished people: Latin America and the Caribbean

17

Millions4540353025201510

50

Source: FAO

1990–92 1995–97 2001–03

Proportion of undernourished people: Latin America and the Caribbean

18


30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Source: FAO

1990–92 1995–97 2001–03

Mexico Central America The Caribbean South America Mexico Central America The Caribbean South America

Food insecurity deteriorated in Peruduring the 1970s and, especially, 1980s.The prevalence of undernourishmentdoubled from 21 percent in 1969–71 to 42 percent in 1990–92. In the 1990s, thetrend was finally reversed. Between1990–92 and 2001–03, the number ofundernourished fell from 9.3 million to 3.3 million people and the prevalence ofundernourishment from 42 to 12 percentof the population.

The improved food security can beattributed, inter alia, to the reductionof inflation. Between 1990–92 and2001–03, real per capita GDP grew by 2.1 percent per year, despite thesetback caused by world financial

market upheaval in the late 1990s. A key factor behind the success was

strong agricultural growth. Peruintroduced reforms in the agriculturesector, including legislation on landtransactions and entitlements, which ledto improvements in access to credit.Agricultural value added per workerincreased by 4 percent annually between1990–92 and 2001–03.

Nevertheless, significant levels ofundernourishment and poverty remain.The challenge for the future is tomaintain the pace of improvements inpoverty and hunger reduction andbroaden the gains to poorer regions ofthe country.

The World Food Summit target reached in Peru

Fighting hunger: determinants ofprogress and setbacks

Overall, per capita dietary energysupplies are higher in the regionthan in both Asia and the Pacific andsub-Saharan Africa, and per capitaGDP is the highest amongdeveloping country regions. A keyfactor underlying food insecurity inthe region is high income inequality,which reflects unequal access toproductive assets.18 Inequalitycauses an uneven distribution of thefruits of economic growth and actsas a brake on poverty reduction.

The region is more urbanized thanother developing country regions,but in many countries the share ofthe rural population is still high.Furthermore, in most countries theincidence of extreme poverty andfood insecurity is higher in ruralareas than in urban ones. Rural andagricultural development has a



Number of undernourished: country progress and setbacks in Latin America and the Caribbean

Source: FAOPrevalence of undernourishment 2001–03 (percent)0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50


2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Setb

ack

Pro

gres

s



Beyond WFS target

19

MexicoEl Salvador

Argentina

Ecuador

Chile

Cuba

Uruguay

BrazilSuriname

Jamaica

Guyana Peru

Trinidad and TobagoColombiaCosta Rica

Bolivia

Dominican Rep.

Haiti

Honduras

Panama

GuatemalaVenezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of)

Paraguay

Nicaragua

Between 1990–92 and 2001–03, thenumber of hungry people in Brazildecreased from 18.5 million to 14.4 million and the prevalence from 12 to 8 percent of the population. With anaverage energy intake of 3 060 kcal perday (in 2001–03), Brazil has adequatefood supplies to feed its population, butaccess to food is hampered by highlyskewed distribution of income and land.

In the early 1990s, Brazil experiencedrecession and a debt crisis. Major policychanges were introduced in an effort tostabilize the macroeconomic situation;these were accompanied by increasedgovernment expenditures on socialprogrammes. Social indicators improvedas a consequence, but the country stillfaces pervasive poverty and food insecurityamong the lowest income groups.

In 2003, the government launched theZero-Hunger Programme (ProgramaFome Zero) with the aim of rapidlyimproving food security for 44 millionpeople. Its main components set out toimprove incomes, increase basic foodsupplies, enhance access to food andurgently alleviate hunger andmalnutrition through targetedinterventions.

A key social programme, launched inOctober 2003, is the Bolsa FamíliaProgramme, which provides conditionalincome transfers to poor families.Conditionalities include schoolattendance and health visits. Thegovernment plans, during 2006, to reachall eligible families – an estimated 11.2 million people.

Progress in Brazil

major role to play in alleviatinghunger and extreme poverty,especially among small-scaleproducers and indigenouscommunities. Ensuring access bythe poor to productive resources –land, capital, technology andeducation – is of particularimportance.

The food economy is characterizedby deep structural changes – thediffusion of new forms of food retail,including supermarkets andhypermarkets, and the consolidationof the food industry. Ensuring thatsmallholders and poorer farmersare not marginalized is a challengeto be faced.

In many countries, exportearnings are critical for ensuringstaple food imports. For countrieswith a high degree of exportcommodity concentration, export

earnings and the livelihoods ofindividuals who depend onagriculture and related activities arevulnerable to international pricefluctuations. For instance, thedramatic decline in coffee prices inrecent years had severe negativerepercussions on food security inCentral American countries.

In several countries in the region,susceptibility to natural shocksintensifies the vulnerability of thepoorest sections of the population.Examples over the last decadeinclude the El Niño phenomenon,which caused droughts and floodingin the Caribbean, Central Americaand the Andean countries in 1997and 1998, and hurricanes Georgesand Mitch, which destroyed lives,crops and infrastructure in manyCaribbean and Central Americancountries in 1998.


Between 1990–92 and 2001–03, thenumber of undernourished people inGuatemala doubled to 2.8 million, and theprevalence of hunger increased from 16to 23 percent of the population. Thirty-onepercent of the population live in extremepoverty, almost 80 percent of whom live inrural areas.1 Most of the rural poor areindigenous and depend on subsistencefarming or agricultural work.

A longstanding constraint is unequalaccess to productive resources. Anestimated 2 percent of the populationown 72 percent of agricultural land whilesmallholdings of less than 7 ha in size (87 percent of all farms) control only 15 percent.2 The productivity of smallfarmers is further constrained by poorinfrastructure and low levels of educationand social expenditure in rural areas.Social expenditures are among thelowest in the region, although they haveincreased since 1990.3

Food insecurity has also beenaggravated by natural disasters. Theeffects of El Niño were followed byhurricane Mitch in 1998, drought in2001 and hurricane Stan in October2005. The latter caused lossescorresponding to 3.4 percent of GNP.4

Coffee production in 2000 accountedfor 18 percent of agricultural GDP, 4 percent of total GDP, 19 percent ofexport revenues and 30 percent of ruralemployment. The decline ininternational coffee prices from the late1990s seriously affected profitability forboth small producers, who predominatenumerically, and large and medium-sizefarms, which account for 80 percent oftotal production. The reduced demandfor farm labour led to employmentlosses equivalent to 78 000 full-timejobs and declines in rural wages.5

Notes: Please see page 40.

Worsening food insecurity inGuatemala


20



Developing world

Latin America and theCaribbean


100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

With 9 percent of thepopulation undernourished,the Near East and NorthAfrica is the region with the lowestprevalence of undernourishmentamong the developing regions.Relatively higher incomes and/or atradition of food support and subsidypolicies in some countries accountfor a large part of the difference. Theregion is home to around 5 percentof the undernourished and around 8 percent of the population of thedeveloping world.

Although relatively low, foodinsecurity in the region is persistentand actually rising both in absolutenumbers and in prevalence.Between 1990–92 and 2001–03, theprevalence of hunger increased from8 to 9 percent, which, combined withhigh population growth rates, led toan increase in the number of under-nourished people from 25 million to38 million. Excluding Afghanistan

and Iraq (for which available dataare very tenuous), the number ofundernourished still increased from15 million to 20 million andprevalence from 5 to 6 percent.

Among the countries in the region(excluding Afghanistan and Iraq), only

Yemen has very high levels of foodinsecurity; more than one-third of thepopulation are chronicallyundernourished. In the remainingcountries, except Jordan and Morocco,the prevalence of undernourishmentlies below 5 percent.




Number of undernourished people: Near East and North Africa

21

Millions35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Source: FAO

1990–92 1995–97 2001–03

In Yemen, the number of hungry people increased from 4.2 million in 1990–92 to 7.1 million in 2001–03, and theproportion of undernourished people in the population from 34 to37 percent. The country falls among the low-income grouping andis highly dependent on food imports. The average daily energysupply of 2 020 kcal per person (2001–03) has decreased slightly,from 2 040 kcal, in the decade since 1990–92. Yemen’s populationgrowth is among the highest in the world, exerting considerablepressure on poverty and food insecurity levels in the country andon its natural resource base. Generally, social indicators haveimproved since 1990 but still remain poor; Yemen ranked 151 outof 177 countries in the 2005 UNDP Human Development Index.

About three-quarters of the population and more than 80 percent of the poor live in rural areas, and agricultureemploys close to 50 percent of the labour force. Agriculturalproduction has been unable to keep pace with the rapidly growingpopulation, and dependence on agricultural imports hasincreased significantly.

Rural development is critical for improving food security. Theagriculture sector is faced with low productivity due to the lack ofinvestment, inadequate water supply and scarce arable land.Rapid depletion of groundwater resources may be the mostserious problem facing the country as a whole and theagriculture sector in particular. About 42 percent of the croppedland is irrigated and over 75 percent of irrigated land usesgroundwater. Ensuring sustainable use of scarce water resourcesis crucial for the development of rural areas.

A further contributing factor often referred to regardingYemen is the production and use of the stimulant leaf qat, whichcompetes with food production for resources, including water,and household food expenditures. The government has begun acampaign against chewing the leaf, and farmers are beingencouraged to switch to high-value export crops in an effort toimprove water-use efficiency.

Worsening food insecurity in Yemen

Near East North Africa

Progress of individual countriestowards the WFS target is shown inFigure 23. Only Kuwait has reachedthe target, but the apparentlyimpressive record in hungerreduction must be seen in thecontext of the exceptionally high

level of undernourishment at theWFS baseline period (1990–92)following the Iraqi occupation andthe first Gulf war. The United ArabEmirates has significantly reducedthe number of undernourished whilebringing the prevalence to a very low

level. Egypt and the Syrian ArabRepublic achieved small reductionsin the number of hungry people anda somewhat more significantreduction in the prevalence, which inboth countries is below 5 percent.The remaining countries (especiallyJordan and Yemen) experiencedincreases in numbers.

Fighting hunger: determinants of progress andsetbacks

The region relies heavily on foodimports, and foreign exchangeearnings constitute a majordeterminant of food security.Fluctuations in oil prices – the keysource of export earnings –influence directly the economies ofthe exporting countries andindirectly the non-oil-exportingcountries, especially through flowsof remittances from intraregional


GDP in the 1990s and prevalence of undernourishment in 2000Number of undernourished: country progress and setbacks in Near East and North Africa



3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Setb

ack

Pro

gres

s



Beyond WFS target

23

Yemen

Jordan

Turkey

Lebanon

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

Iran (Islamic Rep. of)Morocco

AlgeriaSaudi Arabia

Egypt

Tunisia

Kuwait

United Arab Emirates

Syrian Arab Rep.

Proportion of undernourished people: Near East and North Africa

22


12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Source: FAO

1990–92 1995–97 2001–03

Near East North Africa

labour migration. Hence, the declinein oil prices during the 1990s had anegative impact on food security inthe region, while their presentrebound since 2002 is a powerfuldriving economic force.

The majority of the poor in theregion – about 70 percent – live inrural areas, while the rural share ofthe population is 43 percent.19 Forthe rural communities, agricultureremains the main source ofemployment and income andrepresents the engine of the ruraleconomy. The performance of thesector is subject to volatile climaticconditions, especially rainfall. Withthe exception of Egypt, where mostagricultural land is irrigated,drought often results in severeproduction shortfalls, exerting heavypressure on farm incomes and foodimport bills. Increasing scarcity ofwater in the region limits the scopefor agricultural expansion andplaces the livelihoods of agriculturaland rural people under heavy stress.Improvements in water-useefficiency and managementpractices are critical elements forimproving the performance ofagriculture and the rural economies.

A significant challenge for theregion is that of meeting the growingfood requirements arising from high population growth. Foodimports are crucial for food securityin this context, and represent ameans of saving scarce water.However, the region has not yetbeen successful in developingexport-oriented industries thatcould reduce its dependency on oilexports. A further challenge forseveral countries is that of ensuringlevels of economic growth sufficientto absorb the rapid expansion in thelabour force.



Between 1990–92 and 2001–03, thenumber of hungry people increased from100 000 to 400 000 and the prevalence ofundernourishment from 4 percent to 7 percent of the population. Limitedresources, especially water, make Jordanhighly dependant on food imports.Agriculture accounts for only 3 percent ofGDP and employs only 10 percent of thelabour force.

The Jordanian economy is highlyinfluenced by external factors, and itsperformance has closely followed thefluctuations in oil prices over the pasttwo decades as well as the conflicts inthe region. After a long period ofeconomic decline starting in the mid-1980s, Jordan is again experiencing

steady economic growth. Despite a largeexternal debt, the government hassucceeded in mobilizing publicexpenditures towards social activitiessuch as health and education. However,unemployment is still high and povertyremains despite progress in reducing it.While fewer than 2 percent of thepopulation are below the US$1-a-dayWorld Bank international poverty line, 7 percent live on less than US$2 a day.With the labour force growing at 4 percent per year, the lack of jobopportunities is currently considered the major threat to food security. In thelonger run, serious water scarcity couldconstrain the country’s growth anddevelopment prospects.

Rising undernourishment in Jordan

Undernourishment, GDP per capita and agricultural GDP per worker (percentage change 1990-92 to 2001-03)

24



Developing world



100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

Sub-Saharan Africa accountsfor 13 percent of thepopulation and 25 percent ofthe undernourished people in thedeveloping world. It is thedeveloping region with the highestproportion – one-third – of peoplesuffering from chronic hunger. In 14 countries in the region, 35 percentor more of the population werechronically undernourished in2001–03.

Hunger in sub-Saharan Africa isas persistent as it is widespread.Between 1990–92 and 2001–03, thenumber of undernourished peopleincreased from 169 million to 206 million, and only 15 of the 39 countries for which data arereported reduced the number ofundernourished. At an annual rateof about 2.5 percent, the region’spopulation has been rising morequickly than the number of hungrypeople, resulting in a reduction inthe prevalence of undernourishmentfrom 35 to 32 percent: it declined in29 countries and increased in ten.

Efforts to reduce hunger in theregion have been hampered bynatural and human-induceddisasters, including conflictsoccurring during the 1990s and thespread of HIV/AIDS. Indeed, theincrease in the number ofundernourished people since theWFS baseline period was drivenmainly by five war-torn countries:Burundi, the Democratic Republic ofthe Congo, Eritrea, Liberia andSierra Leone. These countriescombined account for 29 million ofthe region’s total increase of 37 million. Particularly dramatic isthe worsening of food insecurity inthe Democratic Republic of theCongo, where the number of under-nourished people tripled, from 12 million to 36 million, and theprevalence rose from 31 to 72 percent

of the population. The evidentconclusion is that conflict is a majorreason for lack of progress towardsthe WFS target in sub-SaharanAfrica.

The persistence of hunger in theregion is underlined by Figure 27,which shows individual country

progress towards the WFS target. Inaddition to Ghana, which has alreadyreached the target, only Gabonreduced the number of under-nourished by 25 percent or more(and is thus halfway towards thetarget). Other countries that reducedthe number of undernourished are:


Sub-Saharan Africa

Number of undernourished people: Sub-Saharan Africa

25

Millions100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Source: FAO

1990–92 1995–97 2001–03

Proportion of undernourished people: Sub-Saharan Africa

26


50

40

30

20

10

0

1990–92 1995–97 2001–03

Source: FAO

Central Africa East Africa Southern Africa Nigeria West Africa (excl. Nigeria)

Central Africa East Africa Southern Africa Nigeria West Africa (excl. Nigeria)

Angola, Benin, Chad, Congo,Ethiopia, Guinea, Lesotho, Malawi,Mauritania, Mozambique andNamibia. Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoiresaw only a marginal reduction in thenumbers, while the prevalencedeclined.

Fighting hunger: determinants of progress andsetbacks

Among the countries that stand outas having achieved a significantreduction in the number of under-nourished are Ethiopia, Ghana andMozambique. In Ethiopia, thenumber of undernourished peopledeclined by 6 million (17 percent),from 38 million to 32 million,between 1993–95 and 2001–03,20with the prevalence falling from

61 to 46 percent. In relative terms,Ghana’s performance was evenmore impressive. The number ofundernourished people was reducedfrom 5.8 million to 2.4 million (59 percent) and the prevalence ofundernourishment from 37 to 12 percent. In Mozambique, thenumber of undernourished people

declined by 900 000 (or by 10 percent) and the prevalence ofundernourishment from 66 to 45 percent. Although thecorrelatives of success variedamong highly successful countries,they seem to have combined goodeconomic growth performances witha significant expansion of per capita



Economic and agricultural performance in Ethiopia, Ghana andMozambique

Average annual per capita growth rate, 1990–2003

GDP Agricultural GDP Food production

(percentage)

Ethiopia* 2.0 –1.0 2.3Ghana 1.8 1.1 3.3Mozambique 4.5 2.8 1.6* For Ethiopia, growth rates shown are for the period 1993–2003. Source: FAO and World Bank

Number of undernourished: country progress and setbacks in sub-Saharan Africa



3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Setb

ack

Pro

gres

s



Beyond WFS target

27

Ghana

Gabon

Mauritius

Benin

Togo

Senegal

Botswana

Central African Rep.

Zimbabwe

Mozambique

United Rep. of Tanzania

Liberia

Dem. Rep. of the Congo

Somalia

Burundi

Sudan

Madagascar

KenyaNamibia

Gambia

Zambia

Mauritania

Lesotho Guinea

Burkina FasoUganda Rwanda

NigerMali

Chad

Malawi

Congo

Angola

Sierra Leone

Nigeria

Côte d’IvoireSwaziland

Cameroon

agricultural or, especially, foodproduction. The performance of thethree countries is summarized inthe table.

Growth in food production isindeed key to hunger reduction insub-Saharan Africa. Productivity-driven increases in food productionhave been shown to have a strongpositive impact on the ruraleconomy, leading to increased foodavailability and a reduction of foodprices in local markets. At the sametime, the enhanced incomes ofsmallholders – the main producersof staples – provide a stimulus torural economic activity by generatingincreased demand for the productsof other sectors that are eitherlinked to agriculture (e.g. processingand agricultural services) or supplyconsumption goods to farmers.

In 12 countries of the region, a fall inthe prevalence of undernourishmenthas not been sufficient to translate intoa reduction in the number ofundernourished people. Thesecountries are spread fairly evenly overthe continent. In all but threeexceptions, a common factor seems tobe that per capita food productioneither declined or grew only slowly.The cases of Burkina Faso, Ugandaand Zambia are examples.

In Uganda, the number of under-nourished increased from 4.2 millionto 4.6 million between 1990–92 and2001–03, while the prevalencedeclined from 24 to 19 percent. Thistook place against a backdrop ofstrong per capita GDP growth, at anaverage annual rate of 3.8 percent,and a modest average growth rate of1 percent in per capita agriculturalGDP. Average dietary energyconsumption also increased from 2 270 to 2 380 kcal/person/day, inspite of decreasing per capita foodproduction. The increase in energyconsumption was achieved mainly

through large increases in bothcommercial food imports and foodaid. Although overall food suppliesdid expand, the increase in ruralincomes that could be generated ifthe additional supplies originated indomestic production did notmaterialize.

In Zambia, prevalence remainedvirtually unchanged (from 48 to 47 percent), and the number ofundernourished people increasedfrom 4.0 million to 5.1 million.Overall economic and agriculturalperformance was mixed. Indeed, percapita GDP declined at an annualrate of 0.9 percent, while per capitaagricultural GDP grew by 1.0 percentper year. Per capita food production,on the other hand, declined at anannual rate of 0.9 percent.

In Burkina Faso, the reduction inthe prevalence of undernourishment

from 21 percent to 17 percentbetween 1990–92 and 2001–03 wasinsufficient to prevent an increase inthe number of undernourishedpeople from 1.9 million to 2.1 million. Food productionincreased in per capita terms at thesame average rate as in the moresuccessful Mozambique (1.6 percent per year). On the other hand,per capita growth of GDP andagricultural GDP were more modest,at average annual rates of 1.7 and1.1 percent, respectively. Foodimports per capita also increasedslightly. As a result, average dietary energy consumptionincreased slightly from 2 350 to 2 460 kcal/person/day during this period. This was sufficient to ensure a reduction in theprevalence, but not in the number, of undernourished people.



28



Developing world

Sub–Saharan Africa


100

80

60

40

20

0

-20



Countries in transition

The transition economies are anextremely diverse group, a factthat should be kept in mindwhen analysing hunger trends in theregion.21 The region is home to anestimated 25 million under-nourished people, 21 million ofwhom live in the Commonwealth ofIndependent States (CIS).

In countries that have recentlyacceded to the European Union(EU),22 and in Romania, the level ofundernourishment is generally low –6 percent at the most. Somewhathigher levels are found in theBalkans (Bosnia and Herzegovina,Bulgaria, Croatia, Serbia andMontenegro, and The formerYugoslav Republic of Macedonia).Within the CIS countries, the rangeof prevalence of undernourishmentvaries widely: from about 3 percentin Belarus, the Russian Federationand Ukraine to 61 percent inTajikistan, which, along withArmenia and Uzbekistan, is one ofthe countries facing the mostserious food insecurity problems.

Progress towards the WFS targetfor the countries in transition ismeasured using 1993–95 as thebaseline period.23 For the region as

a whole, there has been a slightincrease in both the number ofhungry people and the prevalence ofhunger. While some countriesshowed progress to varying degrees,others have experienced a sharpdeterioration in their food securitysituation.

Individual country progresstowards the WFS target is shown inFigure 31. Of the countries that haveachieved the target, the mostsuccessful are Azerbaijan, Georgiaand Kyrgyzstan, all of which, startingfrom a high prevalence of hunger,have cut the number ofundernourished by at least two-thirds. Armenia, which in 1993–95had the highest prevalence ofundernourishment (52 percent) inthe region, has already halved itsnumber of hungry people, but at 29 percent of the population theprevalence remains disturbinglyhigh. Other countries that have metthe WFS target are Croatia, Estonia,Lithuania and The former YugoslavRepublic of Macedonia. Latvia, theRussian Federation, Slovenia andTurkmenistan have made strongprogress, though they have yet tomeet the target.

A few countries suffered setbacks,in some cases very severe. The largest relative increase was inKazakhstan, but by far the mostserious situation is in Tajikistan andUzbekistan, which have both seen a

Number of undernourished people: transition countries

29

Millions25

20

15

10

5

0

Source: FAO

1993–95 2001–03

Proportion of undernourished people: transition countries

30


7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Source: FAO

1993–95 2001–03

Commonwealth of Baltic States Eastern EuropeIndependent States

Commonwealth of Baltic States Eastern EuropeIndependent States

Azerbaijan and Georgia – the twocountries that have been mostsuccessful in reducing hunger from veryhigh levels – emerged from armedconflict in the early 1990s. Theireconomies started expanding in thesecond half of that decade following asevere contraction in the early years.Economic growth, in turn, was a majorfactor behind the significant reductionin the numbers of hungry people – inboth countries from about 2.5 million in1993–95 to 0.7–0.8 million in 2001–03.Both have made strong progress since1993 in implementing economy-widereforms and those specific to theagriculture sector, includingprivatization of agricultural land andtitling.

Progress in Azerbaijan andGeorgia


serious worsening of food securityand currently experience very highlevels of undernourishment.

Fighting hunger: determinants of progress and setbacks

Factors influencing progress orsetbacks in hunger reduction arediverse in the region. In manyinstances, food insecurity has been adirect consequence of human-induced disasters – war, conflict andpolitical and economic instability withensuing problems of refugees anddisplaced persons. Armenia,Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Republic ofMoldova, the Russian Federation andmany Balkan countries are amongthis group. Natural disasters(prolonged drought in parts ofArmenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and theRepublic of Moldova) have also playeda role.

More generally, food insecurity inthe region can be traced to factorssuch as weak economic developmentresulting from lack of support policiesand infrastructure and the breakdownof social safety nets following thedissolution of the pre-1990seconomic and political systems inEastern Europe and the CIS.

Between 1990 and 2001, extremepoverty, measured as the share ofthe population living on less thanUS$1 a day, increased from 0.4 to5.3 percent in the CIS countries andfrom 0.2 to 2.0 percent in thetransition countries of southeasternEurope.24 However, the CIS averagemasks the existence of countrieswith exceptionally high rates ofextreme poverty such as theRepublic of Moldova (22 percent),Uzbekistan (14 percent), Armenia (13percent), Turkmenistan (10 percent)and Tajikistan (7 percent).25

Reversing the food securitysetbacks requires focused efforts onpro-poor development strategies,targeting rural areas especially,which are home to more than 50 percent of the population incountries such as the Republic ofMoldova, Tajikistan and Uzbekistanand to large shares also in othercountries where hunger ispervasive. While agriculture is notthe predominant sector in the regionas a whole, it remains important inthe poorer countries, andagricultural performance willdetermine future progress inreducing poverty and food insecurity.In the three countries with thehighest levels of undernourishment– Tajikistan, Armenia andUzbekistan – agriculture accountsfor 24, 23 and 31 percent of GDP,respectively.26

Number of undernourished: country progress and setbacks in the countries in transition

Source: FAONote: Not shown on graphic: Kazakhstan (ratio 7,2, prevalence 8 percent).

Prevalence of undernourishment 2001–03 (percent)0 5 10 15 20 25 30 55 60 65


4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Setb

ack

Pro

gres

s



Beyond WFS target

31

Romania

HungaryPoland

Czech RepublicLithuania

Estonia

Serbia and Montenegro

Bulgaria

Azerbaijan

Russian Federation

Ukraine

SloveniaLatvia Turkmenistan

Kyrgyzstan

CroatiaMacedonia FYR Armenia

Uzbekistan

Georgia

Tajikistan

Republic of Moldova

Belarus

Bosnia and HerzegovinaSlovakia

Albania

This report has shown that,although we are closer to theMDG target of halving theproportion of undernourishedpeople by 2015, we are still very farfrom the WFS target of halving theirnumber. Towards the latter goal noprogress has been made, and thenumber of hungry people hasremained virtually unchanged since1990–92.

Despite the disappointing resultsso far, prospects for hungerreduction appear more promisingtoday. Improved economicperformance in developingcountries, bolstered by increasedinternational attention to the dualproblem of extreme poverty andhunger, promises more rapidadvances in the coming years. Still,the task in front of us is daunting:each year until 2015, the world mustbe able to count 31 million fewerhungry people27 – ten times the totalreduction achieved since 1990–92 –if we are to meet the pledge madeduring the WFS and reiteratedduring the WFS: five years later.

Furthermore, not all countriesface equal challenges, and manyrisk being left behind in the fightagainst hunger. Those that face themost serious difficulties and need tomake the largest efforts are oftenthose that have the least means todo so. Without purposeful action bydomestic stakeholders and withoutassistance from the worldcommunity, these countries riskfurther marginalization, making thehunger reduction effort even moredifficult in the future.

Lessons learnt in hungerreduction28

In stepping up our efforts to reachthe WFS target and broadening theareas of progress, past experiencescan provide indispensable guidanceon general policy directions. Thefollowing are some of the policylessons emerging from pastsuccesses and failures in hungerreduction.• Hunger reduction is necessary

for accelerating development and

poverty reduction. Hunger is, atthe same time, a consequenceand a cause of poverty. Hungernegatively affects health, labourproductivity and investmentchoices, perpetuating poverty.Therefore targeted interventionsto ensure access to food areneeded.

• Agricultural growth is critical forhunger reduction. Some 70percent of the poor in developingcountries live in rural areas anddepend on agriculture for theirlivelihoods, either directly orindirectly. In the poorest ofcountries, agricultural growth isthe driving force of the ruraleconomy. Particularly in t

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