the state of oled - clsau.com · pdf filethe state of oled technology markets and participants...

CLSA U® Executive Education

Spring 2011

The state of OLEDTechnology markets and participants

Barry E YoungOLED Association

Course instructorBarry Young is vice president of Young Market Research (YMR) and a primary-lighting analyst. He also serves as managing director of the OLED Association, where he solves industry-wide issues, such as the development of standards for the OLED display and lighting industries. He is also working with a group of OLED suppliers to produce the first US-based national laboratory for OLED lighting. A long-time principal, senior advisor and consultant to DisplaySearch, Young is one of the leading authorities on OLEDs and flexible displays, and has authored DisplaySearch’s OLED, flexible-display, small/medium-display and technology reports. He has visited and consulted most of the OLED manufacturers worldwide, published in technical-display journals and spoken across the globe on the display industry. Before joining DisplaySearch, Young was CEO and president of OWL Displays, where he co-developed innovative driver technology for amorphous silicon (a-Si) and polysilicon (p-Si) TFT LCDs, and was awarded key patents for driving low-temperature polysilicon TFT LCDs. Before OWL, he was vice president and general manager of Tandem’s integrity system division. He has also served as managing partner at Booz Allen & Hamilton, executive vice president at Wells Fargo Bank, senior vice president at Citibank and president and CEO of Lexar, an early developer of an all-digital PBX.

Course overviewOLED technology was first commercialised for displays in 1999, but it took until late 2007 for it to reach mass production in the active matrix mode. Now OLEDs are challenging LCD technology in the handheld market and will soon target the largest markets for flat panels - TVs and notebooks. OLED technology offers significant performance improvements over LCD and plasma technology, eg, faster response time, wider viewing angles, higher contrast, improved colour and lower power consumption.

This presentation addresses the challenges facing OLEDs to expand their market, what the leaders are doing, when they will gain a formidable position and how the manufacturers can exploit the existing TFT-LCD infrastructure. Another group of manufacturers are developing solid-state lighting (SSL) applications, which promise to improve lighting efficiency, increase lifetime and reposition a significant portion of the US$100bn lighting industry. Osram, Philips and Lumiotec have introduced OLED SSL products, while Panasonic, GE, Konica Minolta, Mitsubishi and Samsung are at the development phase. The session also examines the challenges and opportunities facing the manufacturers.

Introduction

Any comments? Please contact Grace Hung at [email protected]

CLSA U® executive education

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3

Promote the development and commercialisation of OLED products

Foster the development and use of OLED-specific performance standards

Serve as a source of OLED industry information for the media and financial community

OLED Association

4

Overview

OLED technology

Semiconductor basics

Displays/lighting

Performance

Manufacturing

OLED lighting

Summary

5

OLED technology

6

Semiconductor basics - Inorganic LEDs

e-

h+

LightFermi level

Conductor

electrons

holes

Band gap

Conduction band

Valence band

Vacuum level

Ele

ctro

n e

nerg

y

7

Semiconductor basics - OLEDs

e-

h+

Light

LUMO level (lowest unoccupied molecular orbital)

HOMO level (highest occupiedmolecular orbital)

Vacuum level

Ele

ctro

n e

nerg

y

ExcitonLocalised on one molecule

8

Excitons

Spin of the LUMO electron does not pair with the spin of the HOMO electron

Can only recombine to emit light in a phosphorescent material (slow)

Spin of the LUMO electron can pair with the spin of the HOMO electron

Can recombine to emit light in any material (fast)

Triplet Singlet

Spin statistics suggest a 3:1 ratio of triplets:singlets -not necessarily the case for all materials

Two types of excitons are possible

9

Key points

HOMO level - Conduction band

LUMO level - Valence band

Electrons and holes recombine forming either a triplet or singlet exciton

Singlets decay to emit light in fluorescent and phosphorescent materials

Triplets can only decay to emit light in phosphorescent material

Non-radiative (thermal) decay is present in any material

10

OLED performance

11

OLED display stack

12

Power consumption comparisons

TFT LCD

AMOLED

100%

160%

TFT LCD

AMOLED

100%

15%

TFT LCD

AMOLED

100%

70%

White backgroundWhite background MovieMovieStill ImageStill Image

Source: LG Display

13

OLED material performance progress

Source: LG Display

14

Colour reproduction

AMOLED maintains 100% of NTSC colourgamut at all gray levels

TFT LCD - 75% at 100% saturation; 11% at 10% saturation

AMOLED - 100% at all levels

Source: Samsung (SMD)

15

Perceived brightness

Perceptual contrast-length comparison of LCDs and AMOLEDs expressed on CIECAM02 colour space

The luminance values of LCDs and AMOLEDs are 256.3 and 189.9cd/m2. Note: only 110.9 cd/m2 is required for AMOLEDs to achieve the same perceptual contrast length as LCDs


16

3D performance

Stereoscopic (requires glasses) 3D TV is being pushed as the next display technology and is expected to increase TV margins

There is a plethora of content under development:

70 films scheduled for production

3D channels planned (ESPN)

Best 3D implementations have the fastest response time

OLED response times are faster than either LCDs or PDPs

OLED may have to produce 3D TV to justify the wider margins


17

Lighting technology performance

Source: YMR

2013-15 timeframe

TFT LCD

Units AMOLED CCFL LED Edge LED Full Difference

Luminance cd/m2 Same None

Brightness cd/m2 OLED ~1.5x brighter Power

Contrast ratio (CR) ¥ 1000:1 5000:1 6M:1 Dark images

Ambient contrast ratio @ 125 lux ~1000:1 >2,000:1 >2,000:1 >2,000:1 High lux

Black levels cd/m2 0.001 0.8 0.1 0.001 Dark images

Viewing angles CR 100% 20:1 3D

Response time ms 0.001 5 3 3 Fast moving

Gray scale performance All Gray Scales Poor lower gray scales Movies

Frame rate Hz >240 None

42" power consumption W 15 ~120 ~80 ~60 15

Lifetime hrs to 1/2 luminance

50k to 100k ~60k ~70k ~70k Initial LCD

Differential ageing Yes None Strength

Image sticking Some Minor Strength

Form factor mm 1 5 3 5 Thinner

18

White pixel progress

Source: Universal Display

140

120

100

80

60

20

40

0

1 10 100 1000 10000

LT70 @ 1,000cd/m²

lm/

W

19

Display capacity

20

A word about substrate sizes

Gen 112007 730x920

2011

21

Revenue by technology/application

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(US$m)PMOLED AMOLED S/M AMOLED TV

Source: YMR

22

Display revenue history & forecast

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(US$m)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180(Growth %)PMOLED AMOLED S/M

AMOLED TV YoY growth

PMOLED sub-displays/MP3

AMOLED smartphone/tablets

AMOLED TVs

Source: YMR

23

OLED display capacity

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(‘000m²)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120(Growth %)Gen 8Gen 5.5 fGen 5.5Gen 4.5Gen 3.5Gen 2YoY growth (RHS)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

('000m²)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120(Growth %)

China

Japan

AUO

SMD

LGD

YoY growth (RHS)

Source: YMR

24

AMOLED shipment/revenue forecast

Source: YMR

25

Manufacturing

Thin film (array)Thin film (array)

OLED deposition & patterningOLED deposition & patterning

Electronics & testingElectronics & testing

26

AMOLED pixel architecture

Technical status of OLED backplanes

LTPS with excimer lasers similar to LTPS LCDs, but OLEDs require a “two TFT, one capacitor”design, while LCDs use one TFT and one capacitor

Compensation, four to five TFTs are added to compensate for non-uniformity

Major difference is that the second TFT (Dr.) has a duty cycle of more than 90%

a-Si used by most LCDs is susceptible to Vthchanges as it heats up and has not been used to drive AMOLEDs, although there are compensation approaches that are being tested

The capital expense for LTPS used in the array process is c.2x the capital cost of a-Si, the total average cycle time (TACT) is longer and the yields are lower

Vdata

CS

VDD

Sel

Sw.Dr.

OLED

27

Backplanes

Excimer laser size is currently limited to 4th gen with a beam length of c.450 x 4 mm. Companies such as JSW and TCZ are developing beam lengths as long as c.800mm to support 6th gen fabs

Primary alternatives to LTPS include:

a-Si with compensation

Super grain silicon (SGS)

Solid phase crystallisation (SPC)

Oxide TFTs

μC TFTs

cSi TFTs

28

Making finely patterned sub-pixels with small molecule material requires the use of vacuum thermal evaporation using a fine metal mask, where the substrate and mask are held in a horizontal position

Size limits are defined by the sagging of the mask

To achieve more than 200ppi, AMOLEDs utilise Pentile technology, which reduces the pixel size from 3 sub-pixels to 2 sub-pixels/pixel. To scale beyond ½ 4th gen, VTE must be changed from positioning the substrate horizontally to holding vertically as implemented by Tokki, Ulvac, Sunic and AMAT

New approaches include the use of CNT by Unidym and nanowires by Cambrios

New techniques required to scale the process

29

Patterning options

Alternative approaches include:

Polymers and small molecule in solution which can be printed

Laser induced thermal imaging (LITI) as developed by 3M and SMD

Eliminating patterning by using white material with a colour filter

The most likely for the gen 5.5 is vertically held substrates

Beyond gen 5.5 some form of printing will be required

Ink Jet - Panasonic, Epson

Slot - DuPont

Roll-to-roll process - VTT, Fraunhofer

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OLED lighting

31

OLED displays vs lighting

Category Units Display Lighting

Lifetime hrs 100K to L50 @ 1000 cd/m2 50k to L70 @ 10,000 lm/m2

Efficacy lm/W 30 100

Patterning Subpixel Large pixels

Blue NTSC standard <NTSC

Active matrix p-Si Not required

Light enhancement Microcavity Light extraction layer

Distribution grid Not Required Required

32

OLED lighting stack

33

Performance characteristics & roadmap

Material

Red

Green

Blue

OLED architectures

Single stack

Tandem stack

Light extraction layer

Flexible backplanes

34

OLED market participants

Many companies developing prototypes and pilot lines, including

Philips - small molecule - fluorescent/phosphorescent

Osram Opto - small molecule - fluorescent/phosphorescent

GE - solution-based phosphorescent, R-T-R

Panasonic - small molecule - fluorescent/phosphorescent

Konica Minolta - solution-based phosphorescent, R-T-R

Lumiotec - small molecule - fluorescent/phosphorescent

Zumtobel/Thorne Lighting/Ledon/Fraunhofer - Polymer-based

Mitsubishi/Pioneer - small molecule - fuorescent/phosphorescent

Kaneka - small molecule

AUO - small molecule - phosphorescent

Moser Baer Technology - small molecule - phosphorescent

Samsung - small molecule - phosphorescent, 2nd gen fab

LG Display - small molecule - phosphorescent

ModisTech - polymer, R-T-R

NEC Lighting - small molecule - fluorescent/phosphorescent

Visonox - small molecule - phosphorescent

35

OLED lighting

Primary market

Currently, OLED lighting is limited to demonstration programmes and decorative/architectural lighting

Future - three to five years away

Fluorescent luminairereplacements

Integrated into acoustic ceiling tiles

Compete with LEDs

Source: Osram Opto Source: Lumiotec

Source: Acuity Brands Source: General Electric

Source: Lumiotec

Source: Philips

36

Sample demonstrators

Mitsubishi panel features:

Size: 14cm x 14cm

Efficiency (typical): 28 lm/w

Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as emitter)

Types of lighting: Planar thin OLED Lighting, partially using solution OLED

Color temperature tunable (2700K-6500K), and RGB colour tunable

Lifetime(LT70, typical): 8000 hours

CRI (typical): 80 (R9=66)

OLED lighting panels will use printable OLED as under layer (=hole injection layer)

Schedule

Samples - 2010

MP - 2011

Source: Mitsubishi

37

Sample demonstrators (continued)

Osram panel features:

Size: 88mm diameter x 2.1mm

Efficiency (typical): 23 lm/w


Color temperature tunable (2580K-3320K), and RGB colour tunable

Luminance - 1,000 cd/m2 @ 186 mA

Lifetime(LT70 typical): 8000 hours

CRI (typical): 75

Schedule - Shipping

Source: Osram

38


Lumiotec panel features:

Size: 14.5cm diameter x 14.5cm x 2.3mm

Efficiency (typical): c.25 lm/W


Luminance - 4,000 cd/m2

Lifetime(LT50 typical): c.4,000 hours at 4,000 cd/m2

CRI (typical): 80

Schedule - Shipping

Source: Lumiotec

39


Philips panel features:




Color temperature tunable (3,200 K), and RGB colour tunable


Lifetime(LT50 typical): c.10,000 hours @ 1,000 cd/m2

CRI (typical): 80

Schedule - 4Q10

Source: Philips

40

Sample prototypes

Konica Minolta panel features:



Types of materials: phosphorescent OLED (as emitter)


Lifetime(LT50 typical): c.10,000 hours @ 1,000 cd/m2

CRI (typical): NA

Schedule - 2011

Source: Konica Minolta

41

Spec summary

¹ 1,000 cd/m2

Spec Units Mitsubishi Osram Lumiotec PhilipsKonica Minolta

Efficacy lm/W 28 23 25 15 64Power W 2.2 3.0 10.6 2.8 1.1Color Temperature °K 2,700-6,500

2,580-3,320 na 3,200 na

CRI 1-100 80 75 80 80 na

Lifetimehrs to

L70 8,000 8,000 4,000 10,000¹ 10,000

Luminance cd/m2 1,000 1,000 4,000 3,000 1,000Lumens lumens 62 69 264 41 71Size cmxcm 14 8.8 14.5 11.9 15

14 14.5 3.7 15

Average Target31 1004 2-4

2,700-3,50079 ~80

5,000 50,000

22503,000-4,000

109 500-1,000

42

Cost forecast

6x6” OLED panel costs dependent on process, volume and manufacturing maturity

Panels/mo: 5k 20k 40k 100k 600k

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2015

(US$/km)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000(US$/m²)Manuf. Cost (6" panel)

$/km

$/m² (RHS)

Source: YMR

43

6x6” OLED panel cost distribution

At 100k/month, the key cost elements are depreciation, labour and the substrate

Source: YMR

44

OLED performance forecast

Lifetime (L70) 30,000 to 50,000 hours

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

lm/m²lm/W

lm/W

lm/m2

Source: YMR

45

OLED lighting projection

Fab size: 730 x 920mm 45 6” panels/substrate

2012 2013 2014 2015Substrates (000) 180 360 720 1080Utilisation 60% 70% 80% 85%Yield 50% 75% 80% 85%Units shipped (m) 3 9 22 37

LEDs/Lamp 29 26 23 20Luminaries (m) 7 9 9 11Lamps m) 98 126 327 666Total (m) 105 135 336 677Total LED (m) 3045 3510 7728 13540OLED share (per fab) 2% 7% 7% 6%OLED fabs 2 4 6 9Total OLED share 5% 27% 39% 50%

Source: YMR

46

SSL/fluorescent replacements

OLED fabs 2 4 6 9Source: YMR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2012 2013 2014 2015

SSL(m)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 Share (%)SSL (LHS) LED Share OLED Share

47

Summary

48

Small molecule/LTPS

SMD Gen 4 with c.25k substrates/month Doubling capacity in 2010

LG Display Gen 2 with c.7.5k substrates/month Adding Gen 4 with 15k

substrates/month in 2010

Sony - Gen 3 partial use

Innolux (Toppoly) - 2-Gen 3s partial use - exiting

AUO Gen 3 pilot Gen 3.5 production in 2011 Gen 4.5 production in 2012

Canon - prototyping only

Polymer/LTPS Panasonic - Gen 2 prototyping

Sumitomo - Gen 2 prototyping

Casio - Gen 2 prototyping

Status

49

Performance

Comparing performance: AMOLEDs vs TFT LCDs

OLED performance will be a differentiator for high-end TVs; especially in 3D, sports and movies because of the viewing angle, the fast response time, and gray scale performance

OLED TVs are likely to compete with full LED backlighting and 3D LCDs

OLED panels will use c.½ the power of LED backlit panels, but the same for the TV components, so the TV difference will be 25% to 30%

OLEDs recreate the lower gray levels better than LCDs, which is a differentiator in video, where the average colour saturation is c.20%

Longer-term AMOLED TVs cost may be less than LCDs and cause most manufacturers to switch technologies

OLEDs will be challenged to compete in bright ambient conditions

Differentiated ageing could be a factor unless material lifetimes improve by at least 2x

The issue of image burn-in, which has not been an issue for smartphones, may require attention due when news tickers are considered

50

AMOLED capacity

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

('000m²)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120Growth (%)Gen 2 Gen 3.5

Gen 4.5 Gen 5.5

Gen 5.5 f Gen 8

YoY Growth

Source: YMR

51

Companies

Material

Universal Display R G Dopant

DS Hi Metal HTL/HIL

Novaled HTL/HIL

Jeil Textile, HTL/HIL, ETL

LG Chemical, ETL

DoSan-CS, Green Host

Dow Chemical Red Host

Sun Fine Chemicals, Blue Host and Dopant

Novaled, HTL/HIL; ETL/EIL

Hodogaya, Blue Host/Dopant

Encapsulation ALD - Synos

Laser Crystallization TCZ, a Cymer Company

LITI

N-Light

AP systems

Deposition/Patterning

VTE

AMD

Tokki

ULVAC

SNU Precision

YAS

SFA Engineering

Printing DuPont - Dai Nippon Print IJP - Epson, Panasonic

52

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Contact: Grace Hung at [email protected]

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Japan Credit Agricole Securities Asia BVTokyo Branch 15/F, Shiodome Sumitomo Building 1-9-2, Higashi-Shimbashi Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0021 Tel: (81) 3 4580 5533 (General) (81) 3 4580 5171 (Trading)Fax: (81) 3 4580 5896

Taiwan CLSA Limited Taiwan Branch 27/F, 95 Tun Hwa South Road Section 2 Taipei Tel: (886) 2 2326 8188 Fax: (886) 2 2326 8166

USA - New York Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc 15/F, Credit Agricole Building1301 Avenue of The AmericasNew York 10019 Tel: (1) 212 408 5888 Fax: (1) 212 261 2502

China - Shenzhen CLSA Limited - Shenzhen Rep Office Room 3111, Shun Hing Square Di Wang Commercial Centre 5002 Shennan Road East Shenzhen 518008 Tel: (86) 755 8246 1755 Fax: (86) 755 8246 1754

Korea CLSA Securities Korea Ltd 15/F, Sean Building 116, 1-Ka, Shinmun-Ro Chongro-Ku Seoul, 110-061 Tel: (82) 2 397 8400 Fax: (82) 2 771 8583

Thailand CLSA Securities (Thailand) Ltd 16/F, M Thai Tower All Seasons Place 87 Wireless Road, Lumpini Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Tel: (66) 2 257 4600 Fax: (66) 2 253 0532

USA - San Francisco Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc Suite 850 50 California Street San Francisco, CA 94111 Tel: (1) 415 544 6100 Fax: (1) 415 434 6140

Hong Kong CLSA Limited 18/F, One Pacific Place 88 Queensway Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2600 8888 Fax: (852) 2868 0189

Malaysia CLSA Securities Malaysia Sdn Bhd Suite 20-01, Level 20 Menara Dion 27 Jalan Sultan Ismail 50250 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (60) 3 2056 7888 Fax: (60) 3 2056 7988

United Kingdom CLSA (UK) 12/F, Moor House 120 London Wall London EC2Y 5ET Tel: (44) 207 614 7000 Fax: (44) 207 614 7070

CLSA Sales Trading Team Australia (61) 2 8571 4201 China (Shanghai) (86) 21 2020 5810 Hong Kong (852) 2600 7003 India (91) 22 6622 5000 Indonesia (62) 21 573 9460 Japan (81) 3 4580 5169 Korea (82) 2 397 8512

Malaysia (60) 3 2056 7852 Philippines (63) 2 860 4030 Singapore (65) 6416 7878 Taiwan (886) 2 2326 8124 Thailand (66) 2 257 4611 UK (44) 207 614 7260 US (1) 212 408 5800

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© 2011 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets ("CLSA"). Key to CLSA investment rankings: BUY = Expected to outperform the local market by >10%; O-PF = Expected to outperform the local market by 0-10%; U-PF = Expected to underperform the local market by 0-10%; SELL = Expected to underperform the local market by >10%. Performance is defined as 12-month total return (including dividends). 01/01/2011

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