the state of the commonwealth - remi

The State of the Commonwealth

Robert M. McNab, Ph.D.

Barbara Blake, Ed.D

Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy

Strome College of Business

Old Dominion University

February 24, 2021

Our forecasts and commentary do not constitute official viewpoints of the Commonwealth of Virginia, Old Dominion University, its President, John R. Broderick, the Board of Visitors, the Strome College of Business, or the generous donors who support the activities of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy.

COVID-19

4

20,974

66,784

259,571

68,038

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

Da

ily

CO

VID

-19

In

fec

tio

ns

7-Day Moving Average of Daily COVID-19 Infections

United States, April 1, 2020 – February 23, 2021

Sources: New York Times and Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy.

5

2,232

3,352

2,082

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000


Da

ily C

OV

ID-1

9 D

ea

ths

7-Day Moving Average of COVID-19 Deaths

United States, April 1, 2020 – February 23, 2021

Sources: New York Times and Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy.

6

1,195

6,166

1,962

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000


Da

ily

CO

VID

-19

In

fec

tio

ns

7-Day Moving Average of Daily COVID-19 Infections

Virginia, April 1, 2020 – February 23, 2021

Sources: Virginia Department of Health and Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy.

5.8%

12.5%18.5%

60.1%

3.8%

14.7%18.2%

61.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Asian Black or African

American

Hispanic White

Pe

rce

nt

SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19) Deaths By Race

United States, January 1, 2020 - February 13, 2021

Population (%) COVID-19 Deaths (%)

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Provisional Death Counts for COVID-19. Population estimated using 2019 U.S. Census population estimates. 7

6.8%

19.1%

9.8%

61.2%

3.8%

23.6%

7.1%

64.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


American

Hispanic White

Pe

rce

nt

SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19) Deaths By Race

Virginia, January 1, 2020 - February 13, 2021

Population (%) COVID-19 Deaths (%)

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Provisional Death Counts for COVID-19. Population estimated using 2019 U.S. Census population estimates. 8

3.2 2.9 3.7 2.9

7.5

18.720.2 19.6

20.7

26.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Maryland North Carolina United States Virginia West Virginia

Va

cc

ina

tio

ns

Pe

r 10

0 R

esi

de

nts

Total COVID-19 Vaccinations Delivered Per 100 Residents

January 15, 2021 and February 23, 2021

January 15, 2021 February 23, 2021

Source: CDC and Our World in Data. Total vaccinations represent total shots and may not reflect the number of fully vaccinated individuals depending on the number of required doses.

9

34.5%30.3%

39.4%

28.6%

65.3%69.3%

81.7% 79.2% 77.3%

91.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Maryland North Carolina United States Virginia West Virginia

Pe

rce

nt

COVID-19 Vaccines Administered as Share of Vaccines Shipped

January 15, 2021 and February 23, 2021

January 15, 2021 February 23, 2021

Source: CDC and Our World in Data. Share of vaccination doses administered among those recorded as shipped in CDC's Vaccine Tracking System.

10

The Commonwealth Endures

11

12

4,111

4,463

4,289

4,000

4,100

4,200

4,300

4,400

4,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Tho

usa

nd

s o

f In

div

idu

alsCivilian Labor Force

Virginia, January 2010 – December 2020

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Seasonally adjusted data.

3,805

4,345

3,832

4,080

3,700

3,800

3,900

4,000

4,100

4,200

4,300

4,400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Tho

usa

nd

s o

f In

div

idu

als

Employment



13

14

7.4%

2.6%

11.2%

4.9%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t R

ate

Headline Unemployment Rate (U3), Virginia

January 2010 – December 2020


15

3,617

4,100

3,662

3,910

3,300

3,400

3,500

3,600

3,700

3,800

3,900

4,000

4,100

4,200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Tho

usa

nd

s o

f Jo

bsNonfarm Payrolls (Jobs)



16

502.3

64.2

312.4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Tho

usa

nd

s o

f Jo

bs

Cumulative Growth in Nonfarm Payrolls

Virginia, February 2010 – December 2020

Sources: Department of Labor and Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Smoothed seasonally adjusted data. Trough of nonfarm payrolls was February 2010.

21,628

848,131

321,454

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Co

ntin

ue

d C

laim

s

Regular State Claims PUA Claims PEUC Claims

Continued Unemployment Insurance Claims in Virginia

January 4, 2020 – January 30, 2021

Sources: U.S. Department of Labor. Weekly non-seasonally adjusted data.

17

6.8%

19.1%

9.8%

61.2%

4.8%

40.1%

0.7%

46.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


American

Hispanic White

Pe

rce

nt

Continued Claims for Unemployment Insurance By Race

Virginia, December 2020

Population (%) Continued Claims (%)

Source: Virginia Employment Commission (VEC), monthly non-seasonally adjusted data. 2019 Census Bureau ACS Population estimates.

18

6.5%

11.5%

8.0%

8.9%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pa

rtic

ipa

tio

n R

ate

Average Monthly SNAP Participation Rate

Virginia, July 2005 – December 2020

Sources: 2005-2019 Population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and SNAP participation and benefits data from the Virginia Department of Social Services. 2020

participation rates estimated using 2019 population estimates.

19

6.3% 6.7% 6.4%9.3%

14.4%17.0%

12.5%

16.6%

20.7%

23.7%

18.9%

26.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

United States

August 2020

United States

February 2021

Virginia

August 2020

Virginia

February 2021

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of R

esp

on

de

nts

Last Month's Payment Status for Owner and Renter Occupied Housing Units:

Percent Not Current on Mortgage or Rent,United States and Virginia, August 31, 2020 and February 1, 2021

Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey and Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy.

20

The Impact on Virginia's

Metropolitan Areas

21

-7.0%

-6.8%

-6.5%

-6.3%

-4.6%

-3.7%

-3.7%

-3.5%

-3.3%

-2.7%

-0.3%

-8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0%

Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford

Winchester

Lynchburg

Harrisonburg

Richmond

Roanoke

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria

Virginia

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News

Charlottesville

Staunton-Waynesboro

Percentage Change in Civilian Labor Force:

Virginia and Virginia Metropolitan Areas,

December 2019 and December 2020

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Seasonally adjusted data. Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News reflects the Virginia

Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC Metropolitan Area. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria reflects the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Area.

22

-6.8%

-6.3%

-6.0%

-5.9%

-4.5%

-4.4%

-4.4%

-3.4%

-3.3%

-1.5%

1.5%

-8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2%

Winchester

Lynchburg

Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford

Harrisonburg

Richmond

Northern Virginia

Virginia


Roanoke

Charlottesville

Staunton-Waynesboro

Percentage Change in Net New Civilian Jobs:

Virginia and Selected Metropolitan Areas,

December 2019 to December 2020

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Seasonally adjusted data. Northern Virginia, Va. includes Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax,

Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and Warren Counties and Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, and Manassas Park Cities in

Virginia.

23

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Seasonally adjusted data. Data for December is preliminary. Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News reflects the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-

Newport News, VA-NC Metropolitan Area. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria reflects the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Area.

6.0%

5.4%

5.2%

5.0%

4.9%

4.8%

4.3%

4.3%

4.2%

3.9%

3.9%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%


Hampton Roads

Richmond

Lynchburg

Virginia

Roanoke

Blacksburg-Christiansburg

Charlottesville

Harrisonburg

Staunton

Winchester

Unemployment Rate

Virginia and Metropolitan Areas

December 2020

24

3.9%

4.3%

5.5%

6.1%

6.3%

8.7%

8.8%

13.7%

14.7%

15.9%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%


Charlottesville

Harrisonburg

Blacksburg-Christiansburg

Roanoke

Virginia

Richmond


Winchester

Lynchburg

Percentage Change in Taxable Sales

Virginia and Metropolitan Areas


Source: Virginia Department of Taxation. Virginia portion of each metropolitan area.

25

7.6%

5.8% 5.6%

10.1%

9.6%

10.4%

7.7%

10.1%

3.8%

6.2%

8.4%

6.5%6.0%

11.0%10.6%

11.3%

8.7%

11.0%

4.5%

7.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Blacksburg

Christiansburg

Charlottesville Harrisonburg Lynchburg Richmond Roanoke Staunton Hampton

Roads

Washington

Arlington

Alexandria

Winchester

Average Monthly SNAP Participation Rate

Virginia Metropolitan Areas


December 2019 December 2020Sources: 2005-2019 Population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and SNAP participation and benefits data from the Virginia Department of Social Services. 2020

participation rates estimated using 2019 population estimates.

26

The Kids Are Not All Right:Youth Mental Health InVirginia

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey and Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Responses indicated symptoms of either anxiety or depression. During

January-June 2019, 11.0% of adults aged 18 and over had symptoms of anxiety disorder or depressive disorder. Phase I data collection occurred April 23 and July 21, 2020. Phase

II data collection occurred between August 19 and October 26, 2020. Phase III data collection began October 28, 2020.

35.9%

40.9% 42.6% 41.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Ma

y 5

Ma

y 1

2

Ma

y 1

9

Ma

y 2

6

Ju

n 2

Ju

n 9

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

n 2

3

Ju

n 3

0

Ju

ly 7

Ju

ly 1

4

Ju

ly 2

1

Au

g 3

1

Se

p 1

4

Se

p 2

8

Oc

t 1

2

Oc

t 2

6

No

v 9

No

v 2

3

De

c 7

De

c 2

1

Ja

n 1

8

Fe

b 1

Pe

rce

nt

Indicators of Anxiety or Depression in Last Week

United States, May 5, 2020 – February 1, 2021

28

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey and Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Responses indicated symptoms of either anxiety or depression. Phase I

responses started week of April 23, 2020. Phase II responses started week of August 31, 2020. Phase III responses started week of January 18, 2021.

38.9%

41.6%

37.4%

47.1%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Ma

y 5

Ma

y 1

2

Ma

y 1

9

Ma

y 2

6

Ju

n 2

Ju

n 9

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

n 2

3

Ju

n 3

0

Ju

ly 7

Ju

ly 1

4

Ju

ly 2

1

Au

g 3

1

Se

p 1

4

Se

p 2

8

Oc

t 1

2

Oc

t 2

6

No

v 9

No

v 2

3

De

c 7

De

c 2

1

Ja

n 1

8

Fe

b 1

Pe

rce

nt

Indicators of Anxiety or Depression in Last Week by Race

United States, May 5, 2020 – February 1, 2021

White Black Asian Hispanic or Latino

29

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey and Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Responses indicated symptoms of either anxiety or depression. Phase I

data collection occurred April 23 and July 21, 2020. Phase II data collection occurred between August 19 and October 26, 2020. Phase III data collection began October 28, 2020.

33.7%38.3% 38.2%

36.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Ma

y 5

Ma

y 1

2

Ma

y 1

9

Ma

y 2

6

Ju

n 2

Ju

n 9

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

n 2

3

Ju

n 3

0

Ju

ly 7

Ju

ly 1

4

Ju

ly 2

1

Au

g 3

1

Se

p 1

4

Se

p 2

8

Oc

t 1

2

Oc

t 2

6

No

v 9

No

v 2

3

De

c 7

De

c 2

1

Ja

n 1

8

Fe

b 1

Pe

rce

nt

Indicators of Anxiety or Depression in Last Week

Virginia, May 5, 2020 – February 1, 2021

30

Number of Suicides Among Individuals Ages 10-19Health Regions

Virginia, 2013-2017

76

20

68

9

1715

14

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

Central Eastern Northern Northwest Southwest

Nu

mb

er

of

Yo

uth

Su

icid

es

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: Data reported to the Virginia Department of Health and analyzed by VDH IVP epidemiology staff, Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy, October 2020.

31

14.3%10.2%

3.6%

53.0%

26.1%

6.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Youth with at least

one MDE in the last

year

Youth with severe

MDE in the past year

Youth with substance

use disorder in the

past year

Youth with MDE who

did not receive

mental health

services

Youth with severe

MDE who received

some consistent

treatment

Youth with private

insurance that did

not cover mental or

emotional problems

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Yo

uth

Re

spo

nd

en

tsSelect Youth Mental Health Indicators: Virginia, Ages 12-17

2017-2018

Source: 2021 State of Mental Health in America Report, Mental Health America. Consistent treatment considered 7 to 25+ visits a year. MDE is “Major Depressive Episode.”

32

17.4%

7.3%4.2%

13.5%

54.5%

28.6%

34.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Adults with Any

Mental Illness

(AMI)

Adults with

Substance Use

Disorder in the

Past Year

Adults with

Serious Thoughts

of Suicide

Adults with AMI

Who Are

Uninsured

Adults with AMI

Who Did Not

Receive

Treatment

Adults with AMI

Reporting Unmet

Need

Adults with

Disability Who

Could Not See a

Doctor Due to

Costs

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ad

ult R

esp

on

de

nts

Percent of Virginia’s Adults, Select Mental Health Indicators:

2021

Source: Mental Health America (2021), https://www.mhanational.org/issues/2021/mental-health-america-adult-data#five

33

https://www.mhanational.org/issues/2021/mental-health-america-adult-data#five

3,556

9,019

12,04814,195 13,811

25,900

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(Budgeted)

Nu

mb

er

of

Vis

its

/ C

on

sults

Number of Visits or Consultations for Children’s Mental Health

Concerns:

CHKD, Fiscal Years 2015-2020

Source: Children’s Hospital of the King’s Daughter (CHKD), Norfolk (2020)

34

VIRGINIA’S OPIOIDEPIDEMIC CONTINUES

35

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Drug Overdose Deaths,” www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/data/statedeaths.html

4.7

4.8

14.3

3.0

6.8

14.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Ov

erd

ose

De

ath

Ra

tes

(pe

r 1

00

,00

0)

Age-Adjusted Opioid Overdose Death Rates:

U.S. and Virginia, 2000-2018 (Per 100,000)

Virginia U.S.36

http://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/data/statedeaths.html

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Drug Overdose Deaths,” www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/data/statedeaths.html and the Kaiser Family Foundation, www.kff.org/other/state-

indicator/opioid-overdose-death-rates

14.3

33.7

17.9

19.9

42.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Ov

erd

ose

De

ath

Ra

tes

(pe

r 1

00

,00

0)

Age-Adjusted Opioid Overdose Death Rates:

Virginia and Surrounding States, 2000-2018 (Per 100,000)

Virginia Maryland North Carolina Tennessee West Virginia37


http://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/opioid-overdose-death-rates

3.9%

6.7%7.1%

6.6%6.1%

5.7%5.2% 4.5%

4.1%3.7%

3.0%

14.3

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t R

ate

Op

ioid

De

ath

Ra

teOpioid Death Rates and Unemployment Rates

Virginia, 2008-2018

Unemployment Rate Opioid Death RateSources: Opioid death rates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Drug Overdose Deaths,” www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/data/statedeaths.html; Unemployment

Rates from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LAUST510000000000003A

38


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LAUST510000000000003A

Source: Fatal Drug Overdose Quarterly Report: 3rd Quarter 2020, Office of the Chief Medical Examiner, Virginia Department of Health. 2021. *Data for 2020 is the predicted total for the entire year.

721 735 713 690819 799

914994 1,028

1,428

1,5371,486

1,626

2,242

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*

Nu

mb

er

of

Fata

litie

sTotal Number of Fatal Drug Overdoses by Year of Death

Virginia, 2007-2020*

40

516 538 530 498601 572

684775 812

1,138

1,2301,215

1,298

1,883

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*

Nu

mb

er

of

Fa

talitie

sTotal Number of Fatal Opioid Overdoses by Year of Death

Virginia, 2007-2020*

Source: Fatal Drug Overdose Quarterly Report: 3rd Quarter 2020, Office of the Chief Medical Examiner, Virginia Department of Health. 2021. *Data for 2020 is the predicted total for the entire year.

41

OPIOIDS AND “Deaths of Despair”• Deaths of Despair Hypothesis (Case & Deaton) -People without

jobs attempt to soothe their disappointing circumstance by using opioids.

• When one looks more closely at the data, the evidence often conflicts with the “deaths of despair” explanation. In Virginia, the unemployment rate fell from 7.4% in January 2010 to only 2.7% in January 2020, but opioid death rates rose anyway. This is the opposite of what the “deaths of despair” hypothesis predicts.

• Blake/Cebula/Koch Findings: Economic distress is only one of a half-dozen or more factors that have an impact on opioid death rates.

Sources: Blake B, Cebula RJ, Koch JV (2021) The Drug Overdose Epidemic Seen through Different Lenses. Health Sci J. 15 No. 1: 781 https://www.hsj.gr/medicine/the-drug-overdose-epidemic-

seenthrough-different-lenses.pdf ; Blake-Gonzalez, Barbara, Cebula, Richard and Koch, James, (2021), Drug-overdose death rates: the economic misery explanation and its alternatives, Applied

Economics, 53, issue 6, p. 730-741. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036846.2020.1813248?journalCode=raec20

42

https://www.hsj.gr/medicine/the-drug-overdose-epidemic-seenthrough-different-lenses.pdf

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036846.2020.1813248?journalCode=raec20

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