the state of the energy transition …...1 introduction of institute for sustainable energy policies...
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2010 4th International Solar Cities Initiative World Congress
Hironao MATSUBARA
Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
Tokyo, Japan
http://www.isep.or.jp/
Japan-India Climate Policy Research Workshop 2018Date: 26th – 27th July, 2018
Venue: TERI Seminar Hall, New Delhi, 110003, India
THE STATE OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION TOWARDS 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY
IN JAPAN
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Introduction of Institute for Sustainable Energy PoliciesAn independent nonprofit policy think-tank (Environmental NGO) aiming at the realization of sustainable energy policy mainly engaged in the rationalization of natural energy, energy saving, and energy market. Founded in 2000.
http://www.isep.or.jp/en/
Trends of Power Generation in Japan
2Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
Source data: METI, etc.Graph: ISEP
• Ratio of renewable energy is 10% which remained unchanged for the past two decades
• Ratio of renewable energy power generation increased to 14.8% in FY2016.
Fukushima.3.11
Trends of Renewable Power Generation in Japan
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9.8%
10.5%10.1% 11.0%
12.5%14.5%
Share of renewable energy power generation increased to 14.8% in FY2016.
4.8%0.6%0.2%1.7%1.7%5.8%
Source: METI, ISEP(Renewables Japan Status Report)
1.7%
14.8%
Share of Power Generation in Japan (2017)
4Source: Estimated by ISEP using METI data
• Share of Renewable Energy reaches almost 15.6% of power generation in Japan• VRE share is 6.2%(Solar PV 5.7%) of annual power generation in 2017
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Trends of Renewable Energy Capacity in JapanTrends of Renewable Energy Capacity in Japan(excluding large hydro): 50GW(FY2016)
*Small Hydro: under 10MW*Biomass: excluding black liquor and co-firing with coal
Source: Renewables Japan Status Report (ISEP)Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
Trends of Solar PV capacity in TOP7 countries
6Source: IRENA data
48.6GW
42.4GW
19.7GW
41.1GW
130.6GW
19.0GW
12.8GW
• In China, Total capacity of PV reached 130GW by end of 2017.• Japan exceeded Germany in total capacity of PV by end of 2016.• Annual installation of PV was 53GW in China, more than 9GW in India.
Movie”Renewable Japan” – The Search for New Energy ParadigmFebruary 2017
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中国 中国
Movie Director:Hiroyuki KAWAI
Superviser:Tetsunari IIDA
Music:Takashi NIIGAKI
Ending Music:Ryuichi SAKAMOTO
Source: http://www.nihontogenpatsu.com/
• Expanded introduction of Solar PV in Japan and Germany• Since 2013, trend of additional capacity is dramatically changed in Japan and Germany.
Source data: IRENA data
Trends of Solar PV in Japan and Germany
Institute for Sustainable Energy PoliciesGraph: ISEP
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201642GW
202066GW
2030100GW
JPEA PV OUTLOOK 2050
Certified PVOver 75GW(March 2017)
2050200GW
Topics: “Solar Sharing” Solar PV for Agriculture in Japan
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• In 2013, MAFF approved the installation of solar PV system on agricultural land• About thousand installation site of “solar sharing” in Japan• Promoting agriculture balancing solar power generation business
Reference URL: https://medium.com/thebeammagazine/solar-sharing-for-the-future-generation-the-story-of-iitate-electric-power-in-fukushima-c28efd5d7e41
Fukushima Aizu Kitakata(Aizu Power)Rice farm with 50kW PV
Chiba (Sousa Mega Solar Sharing)Soya farm with 1MW PV
Economical effects of FIT scheme in Japan
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発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者Power
ProducersElectricUtilitiesElectricity
Tariffs for electricity
Financial Institution
CapacityInvestment
PriorityAccess
Renewables(PV,Wind,Geothermal,Hydro,Biomass)
Home(Regulated)
Company(Office,
Industries,Etc.)
Electricity
Electricity Price(Surcharge)
Estimationfor FY2016
2.25 JPY/kWh
57TWh 800TWh
employment:310,000(IRENA)
Renewable Share:9%(excluding large hydro)
Investment(2016):16Billion USD(Total investment for clean energy in Japan) estimated by UNEP Source Data: METI, Estimation by ISEP
Electric Consumer
2300B JPY 1800B JPY
Power Facility
Investment,Loan
April,2016 – March,2017
Avoidable Cost:500B JPY
Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
Trend of wind capacity in the world
11Source: GWEC(Global Wind Energy Council)
Trends of Wind power capacity in Japan• After FY2011, annual installed capacity keeps very low level because of several
regulation.
• Pipeline of environmental assessment is over 15GW including certified wind capacity is over 6GW
12Source: JWPA(Japan Wind Power Association) and ISEP
2020Onshore:10GWOffshore:0.7GW
2030Onshore:27GWOffshore:10GW
JWPAWind Roadmap
2050Onshore:38GWOffshore:37GW
Energy Transition after Fukushima Nuclear Accident in Japan
13Source: ISEP “Renewables 2016 Japan Status Report”
Decoupling started ?
FY
Comparative Studies on Socially Equitable Energy Transition in Asia*Status of Renewable Energy in Asian Countries
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Country RE Target(Electricity)
RE Share(Electricity)
PV[GW]
Wind[GW]
Biomass[GW]
Geo[GW]
Hydro[GW](Pumped)
Total[GW]
Japan 22-24%(2030)
15%(2016) 42 3 4 0.5 49(27) 146
China 27%(2020) 26%(2016) 78 149 12 0.03 334(27) 1372Korea 6%(2020)
10%(2024)20%(2030)
5%(2016) 5 1 2 0 6(5) 16
Phillippines 40%(2020) 29% 0.8 0.4 0.5 2 4(1) 7Thailand 20%(2036) 13% 2 0.5 3 0 4(1) 9Indonesia 26%(2025) 0.1 0.01 2 2 5 31Vietnam 5%(2020) 0.01 0.2 0.3 0 18 18India 40%(2030) 16%(2016) 10 29 9 0 48(5) 210Total(Asia) 138 183 33 5 468(66)World 25%(2015) 291 467 109 13 1245
(160)2008
Source:Miranda Schreurs and IRENA “Renewable Energy Statistics 2017”* This study is supported by Friedrich Ebert Foundation(2017)
Share trends and Policy target of renewable energy
15Source:NREAP, EurObserv’ER, ISEP
■EU directive causes renewable energy target of 2020 based on NREAP for each country in EU■2030 energy mix of renewable energy in Japan is 22 – 24%, which corresponds to recent RE share of EU countries.
Share comparison of renewable energy power generation
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Source: EurObserv’ER, etc.* VRE(Variable Renewable Energy)
Share of renewable energy power generation in European countries are greater than Japan.
Electrical System Reform in Japan:Inter-regional grid connection between region of large utilities in Japan
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Hokkaido
4.5GW
Tohoku
13.3GW
Tokyo(Kanto)
54.4GW
Hokuriku
5.3GW
Chubu
26.7GW
Kansai
29.2GW
Chugoku
11.3GW
Kyusyu
16.5GW
Shikoku
5.5GW
Okinawa(Isolated)1.5GW
0.6GW
12.6GW
1.2GW5.6GW1.4GW
0.3GW5.6GW16.7GW
2.4GW
5.6GW
Region(Utility)Peak
Demand(GW)
GWInter-regional grid Capacity (Physical)
Source data: ESCJ
As of FY2014
60Hz(West)
50Hz(East)
Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
Electrical System Reform:-OCCTO and EGC start in FY2015-Full Electricity Liberalization since FY2016-Unbundling until 2020
Results of FIT scheme (As of March 2017)Operating Renewable power capacity in each utility
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Source data: METIGraph: ISEP Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
In kyusyu, operating renewable power capacity reaches 47 % of peak demand.
As of March 2017
Energy transition by Variable Renewable Energy
19Source:REN21,IRENA,IEA” Renewable Energy Policies in a Time of Transition”
Share of VRE(Variable RE)2016
Japan 5%Kyushu 9%
Denmark45%
India 3%
Large Share of variable renewable energy in JapanSingle-day Supply and Demand in Kyushu area (May 14th, 2017)
20Source: ISEP using Kyushu Electric Company
May 14th, 2017RE peak: 86.9%VRE peak: 71.9%Solar peak: 71.5% Total 10 utilities: April 30th, 2017
RE52%(Solar 38%,Hydro 12%,Geo 0.3%, Wind1%, Biomass 0.4%)
Holiday, April 30th, 2017Daily Share of RE:28%
Sunday, May 14th, 2017Daily Share of RE:39%
Kyushu Area
Sustainable Zone: Indicator for Sustainability of region in Japan
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Energy Sustainable Zone (ESZ) is an indicator to identify areas where local production of renewable energy exceeds local consumption of energy by residential and service sector.
Prefectures
Ranking of Electricity RE Share(FY2016)Estimated by ISEP and Kurasaka Lab. Chiba Univ.
Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
RE Share = Renewable Power Supply(excluding Large Hydro)Electricity Demand(excluding industries)
Source: Sustainable Zone Study Grouphttp://www.sustainable-zone.org
135 towns and villages over 100% Renewable Energyin Electricity
83 towns and villagesover 100% Sustainable Zone(100% renewables region)
Renewable Energy 100% Vision of Fukushima Pref.Comarison of Regional economy effects
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3.3 trillion JPY
Cumulative regional economy until FY2040 after FIT started
1.6 trillion JPY
Source:Matsubara, et.al., SEEPS 2015
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Network of Community Power in Japan
Source:data of ISEP, People’s Power Network, Kiko Network
Activities of Community Power in Japan
http://www.wcpc2016.jp/en/
As of Oct. 2016
“Fukushima Community Power Declaration”
Three Principles of Community Power
Ownership
Governance
Benefit sharing
The 2nd World Community Power Conference will be held in Mali, Africa, 2018
The 1st World Community Power Conference, 2016Japan Community Power Association
(JCPA) Established in 2014
Japan Communitypower Association(JCPA)
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Network of organizations and key persons working on community-led renewable energy projects. Established in May 2014, in an effort to reorganize the "Community Power Initiative" (established in June 2013).Under the mission of promoting community-led renewable energy development in collaboration to realize a sustainable local community, the organization is sharing information and experience, policy research and recommendations, capacity building, business support, and so on.
Activities:• Information sharing: shared knowledge base• Networking: symposiums, lectures in each
region• Collaborative business development ,
business support• Policy research and recommendations
JCPA Home Page:http://www.communitypower.jp
Symposium in Aizu, Fukushima(Aug. 2014)
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Community power: Aizu Electric Power Company
Solar PV: 5MW(70 sites)
CEO: Yauemon Sato
Source: https://aipower.co.jp/companysummary
Conclusions towards 100% renewable energy in Japan
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• Community-power based (Locally-owned) development of sustainable renewable energy• Policy to develop power system infrastructure and renewable energy heating and transport• Learning advanced region and case of renewable energy 100% regions and companies• Making Vision and Target towards 100% renewable energy
http://there100.org/companies
Source:deENet(IdE, Germany)http://100ee.deenet.org
http://www.go100re.net/Global 100% Renewable Energy Platform
Domestic Campaign in Japanhttp://go100re.jp/
Renewable Energy 100% Region
Sustainable Zone