the state of the golf industry. 2 golf participation
TRANSCRIPT
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The State of the Golf Industry
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Golf Participation
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Stocks & Flows
Source: NGF/Synovate
Golf Participants (in Millions)
2010 2011
26.1 25.7Departing Participants
-3.9
Beginners(Never played )
1.5
Returning Participants
2.0
-0.4
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Short Term Participant Trend
Participants (MM)
Core Occasional TOTAL1-yr Change -2.7% 0.0% -1.5%5-yr Change -17.7% -8.1% -13.8%30.0 29.8 29.5 28.6
27.126.1 25.7
44%
56%
Source: NGF golf participation study
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Long Term Participation Trend
Participants (MM)
Source: NGF golf participation study - 1990 is a calculated average of 1989 and 1991
19.7
24.2 24.7
28.8
30.630.0
25.7
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Participant Gains vs. Losses
Source: NGF golf participation study
Participants (MM)
Recessionary effect
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Participant Gains
Source: NGF golf participation study
Participants (MM)
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Exclusive Range Participants
Age 6+ (millions)
Source: NGF golf participation study
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Rounds Played – 2011 (Down -2.5% Nationally)
+2.0% or higher+1.9% to -1.9%-2.0% or lower
(% Change from previous year)
New England (-5.1%)
Mid Atlantic(-9.6%)
South Atlantic(+3.7%)
South Central(+1.1%)
Pacific(1.2%)
Mountain(-2.1%)
West N Central(-5.5%)
East N Central(-9.3%)
Source: Golf Datatech, NGF, PGA of America national rounds played reports
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Rounds Volume
Source: Golf Datatech, NGF, PGA of America national rounds played reports
Rounds (in Millions)
1-yr Change: -2.5%Change ‘05-’11: -7.4%
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Other Golf Participants
Total(MM)
Golfers(%)
Mini-Golf 20.6 38
Video Games
55.7 18
Simulators 2.6 76
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Demand Takeaways
Participation appears to be stabilizing at a new base of approximately 26 million
Recessionary effects are lessening – the number of lost golfers are falling
Rounds played likely to have bottomed out in 2011 with some recovery expected
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Golf Supply
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Trend in Course Openings
18-hole equivalents
Source: NGF Facility Tracking
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15Source: NGF Facility Tracking
18-hole equivalents
Course Closures
2011 Closures:
• PUBLIC: 131.5 (83%)Daily Fee: 120.0 (76%)Municipal: 11.5 (7%)
• PRIVATE: 26.0 (17%)
• REAL ESTATE: 35.5 (23%)(incl. both public and private)
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Net Change in Supply
Net Change = openings minus closures (in 18-hole equivalents)
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Growth of Golf Facilities
Number of facilities
Source: NGF
Private
Daily Fee
Municipal
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Rounds & Golf Course Supply (The Decade)
Source: NGF/Golf Datatech
Course Supply (18 hole equiv.)
Rounds Per 18 hole equiv.
% Change in Rounds (from
previous year)Decade
-11.2%
(-0.1%) (-3.0%) (-1.5%)(0.9%) (0.0%) (0.3%) (-0.6%)(-1.8%)(-0.6%)(-2.3%)(-2.5%)
Decade-12.1%
Decade +1.7%
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NGF Golf Course Supply/Demand Index
Source: NGF/Golf Datatech
Index of Golfers Per 18 Hole Equivalent
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Continued Contraction in Range Supply
We have seen very little change in the range size proportions since 2000:
2011
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Retail Supply TrendD
oors
Sq
. Ft.
(m
m)
1,067
8.2
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Retail Consolidation – 2011 Snapshot1,067 Doors
8.2 mm Sq. Ft.
Doors Sq. Ft.
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Trend – Doors by Type D
oors
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Supply Takeaways
Golf course market correction slowly continues – should not materially affect rounds played
Individual golf course performance should slowly improve as rounds recover and NGF Supply/Demand Index progressing toward historical level
Correction in ranges and retail more dramatic, but slowing down
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Industry Spending
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Domestic – Golf Clubs
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Domestic – Golf Balls
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Facility Maintenance Budgets1
(1) Excluding capital expenditures and water
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Turf Equipment – Purchase Intent
YE’05 YE‘06 YE’07 MY’08 YE’08 MY’09 YE’09 MY’10 YE’10 MY’11 YE’11
YE = Year EndMY = Mid Year
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Confidence Indices
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Consumer Confidence Index
Source: The Conference Board
Through March 2012
Index currently stands at 70.2 – as high as it has been since early 2008
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Golfer Confidence
NGF Golf Consumer Confidence Index
Q: How is the economy affecting your spending on golf?
“I am playing fewer rounds”- 16% (24% in Q4)“I am delaying golf equipment purchases”- 39% (37% in Q4)“I am going on fewer golf trips”- 32% (34% in Q4)
Source: NGF quarterly Core golfer survey
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Golfer Confidence
Percent of Golfers Reporting Playing Fewer Rounds Due to Economy
Source: NGF quarterly Core golfer survey
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Indicators are mostly positive for improvement in golf economy
• Consumer confidence trending up• Golfer confidence trending up• Weather recovery in rounds likely
Golfer Confidence Takeaways
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The State of the Golf Industry