The State of the Youth in the Muslim WorldSeminar on «Youth and Development in the IDB Member Countries»April 2, 2012Khartoum, Sudan

Outline

• Youth in the Member Countries

• Challenges: Education and Employment

• Consequences: Social unrest, poverty, conflict• Responses: Vocational Education and Training

• SESRIC Responses: OIC-VET, SDYE, OIC-ISIP, IMTP, OIC-PAP

• Final Remarks

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Youth as a Strength

 1.57BILLION PEOPLEPopulation of the

OIC Countries in 2010

 

The share of young population accounted for

53.5PER CENT

of the OIC total population in 2009

Higher percentage of young population will be the key driver of economic development

With 1.57 billion people in 2010, the OIC countries accounted for almost 23 per cent of the world total population. The share of the young population (age group 0-24) in the total population of the OIC countries reached 53.5 per cent in 2010; the highest share compared to all other groups of countries in the world.

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Youth as a Challenge

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Youth as a Challenge

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EDUCATİONState of the Muslim Youth

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Education – Average Schooling

In OIC member countries, average years of schooling have substantially increased over the last 40 years. The number of countries with schooling more than 6 years was only 4 in 1970. This number increased to 26 in 2010. In 2030 the minimum years of schooling will be 4 years and in 2050 it will be 6 years.

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1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Yea

r

0 2 4 6 8 10 12Average Years of Schooling

Source: UN Data

Figure 7: Average Years of Schooling over a Century

Education – Average Spending

World average government expenditures on education per pupil as percentage GDP per capita increased from 20.5% in 1999 to 21.2% in 2008. The increase in this ratio in developing countries as well as OIC countries was quite limited as compared to developed countries.

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Education – Quality

Among the 65 countries or economies surveyed in the study, 7 of the 10 worst performers on the overall reading scale are the OIC member countries. Turkey as the best performing OIC member country occupies only 41st position.

Several studies illustrate the seriousness of the learning challenge. - More than 30 per cent of Malian youths aged 15–19 years who completed six years of schooling could not read a simple sentence. - In Pakistan, tests of grade 3 children found that only half could answer very basic multiplication questions (World Bank, 2011). 9

The mean performance of students on mathematics, reading and science for all 10 OIC countries taking part in the PISA study of OECD (2009)

Education – Quality and Productivity

One year increase in average schooling is associated with 0.1% increase in productivity (GDP per worker) and this is a relatively poor improvement.

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DZA

BHR

BGD

BEN

BRN

BFA

CMRTCD

COM

CIV

EGY

GAB

GMB

GINGUY

IDN

IRNIRQ

JORKAZ

KWTKGZ

LBY

MYS

MDV

MLI

MRT

MAR

MOZ

NERNGA

PAK

SAUSEN

SLE

SDN

SYR

TJK

TGO

TUN

TUR

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YEMy = 0.112x + 2.5697R-sqr = 0.023

-40

48

1216

Prod

uctiv

ity G

row

th

0 3 6 9 12Average Years of Schooling

Source: SESRIC staff estimation and World Bank

Figure 18: Schooling and Productivity Growth

EMPLOYMENTState of the Muslim Youth

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Skill Mismatch

Skill Mismatch•An adequate basic education may not be enough to find work because they do not provide the skills needed by employers. • Despite persistent joblessness among young people, employers usually complain

that they can’t find enough workers with the skills they need to grow their businesses.

Broadening learning opportunities for the young, especially by improving quality•Better learning outcomes take more than investment in school buildings and classrooms, trained teachers and professors, and textbooks.•Special programs should be developed to teach young people to make good decisions when investing in their human capital, by giving them information, resources, and second-chance opportunities.

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Youth Unemployment – OIC Countries

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Youth Unemployment – Global and Regional

14In the Middle East and North Africa regions, youth are around four times as likely as adults to be unemployed, with youth unemployment rates well in excess of 25 per cent in both regions (ILO,

Global Employment Trends 2012).

The increase in social unrest in many countries and regions around the world is of little surprise.

Unemployment - Consequences

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Other socio-economic impacts:

Major impacts on economic growth due to the loss or

degradation of human capital

Poverty: A Challenge for Social Equality

16According to the latest available estimates of World Bank, 351 million people (27% of OIC total population) were living below the income poverty threshold of 1.25$ a day whereas 640 million people (49% of OIC total population) were living below the poverty threshold of 2$ a day.

Source: World Bank http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm?1

Poverty: A Challenge for Social Equality

17Poverty Headcount Ratio : % of population living in households with consumption or income per person below the poverty line. The default poverty line is $38.00 per month (Source: World Bank, 2012. http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm?1)

Poverty: A Challenge for Social Equality

18Although GDP per capita of OIC Member Countries was increasing for the last decade, the number of people living less than 1.25$ a day have not decreased, this fact points out unequal distribution of income in Member Countries.Source: World Bank, 2012. http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm?1

Poverty: A Challenge for Social Equality Unequal Redistribution of Wealth

19OIC averages of income share held by highest 10% is approximately 29.7% and income share held by lowest 10% is 2.9%; implies that the top 10% of population take benefit of 30 percentage of GDP but the remaining 90% of population just gain 70 percentages of GDP. Despite the increase of GDP per capita of OIC Member Countries for the last decade, any improvement in unequal income distribution is observed.

Top 10 Internet Sites & Social Networking

20Increasing number of young people are participating in public debate, making use of high-tech communication tools and social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter . Studies show that social media carried a cascade of messages about freedom and democracy, equality across North Africa and the Middle East and played a critical role in shaping opinions and influencing change, in the Arap Spring.

THREATSState of the Muslim Youth

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Threats

• A rising youth share of the population signals increases in the productive capacity of an economy on a per capita basis in the years to come.

• It also poses a risk of social and political instability in economies that fail to generate sufficient jobs.

Social unrests due to high unemployment rates• Millions of young people were chanting “dignity” and “social justice” in the MENA

region, underlining deep-seated feelings of exclusion and inequality of opportunities.

• Those who are unemployed and unmarried have relatively little to lose and relatively more to gain from change. New social media facilitate communication and organizing.

• Demanding democracy, human rights, and better governance, young Arabs were also striving to realize their economic aspirations in a region rich in human and physical capital.

• While there has been economic growth for a number of years in MENA countries, this has not led to an adequate number of good jobs and has succeeded, at best, in generating low-quality, informal jobs. 22

Informal Employment

Informality as «lack of social security coverage»

•A typical MENA country produces one-third of its GDP and employs 67 percent of its labor force informally.

•Over two-thirds of workers may not have access to health insurance and/or are not contributing to a pension that provides income security after retirement.

23Source: World Bank, MENA Knowledge and Learning, Dec. 2011The Schneider Index estimates the share of production not declared to tax and regulatory authorities

Social Exclusion

Knowledge Gap of Muslim Youth•Muslim youth fail to have a thirst for knowledge•Lack of self-confidence

Alienation of Muslim youth •Bridges between generations are being impaired and youth are becoming alienated from Muslim community.•Rising identity problem

Idleness•Intellectual deficiency, emotional instability and reckless actions

RESPONSE: Good quality education, better employment prospects, preserving the moral values and sense of belonging

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Indonesia vs. Nigeria

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Source: IMF, Finance & Development March 2012

RESPONSESState of the Muslim Youth

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Responses to the Challenge

• Active Labour Market Policies and Vocational Education and Training Programmes

Labour Market Challenges in the OIC Member Countries

Enhancing Employability

SESRIC Responses to the Challenge

Skill Development for Youth Employment

28The initiative of the IDB and the World Bank (IFC): Education for

Employment (e4e)

With the aim of •Bridging the gap between existing education and employment •Narrowing the skills gap among young people in the Arab world

Skill Development for Youth Employment

2911-13 January 2012, ANKARA / TURKEY

Study Visit on Skill Development for Youth Employment

The study visit included 8 selected OIC Member Countries, namely Cameroon, Egypt, Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Morocco, Palestine, Senegal, and Tunisia.

OIC International Student Internship Programme (OIC-ISIP)

A special programme developed under the OIC-VET Programme and operated under the International Business Forum (IBF) hosted by Independent Industrialists and Businessmen's Association (MÜSİAD). It basically aims at increasing knowledge and skills of university students about to enter into the labour market.

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6 OCTOBER 2010, ISTANBUL / TURKEYCertificate Ceremony of OIC-ISIP Pilot Application of

Summer 2010

10 students from 7 Member Countries, namely Afghanistan, Yemen, Albania, Senegal, Indonesia, Guinea,

and Uzbekistan

ISMEK Master Trainer Programme

İSMEK Master Trainer Programme (IMTP) is a joint programme between Statistical Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries (SESRIC) and the Centre for Art and Vocational Training Courses of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (İSMEK), initiated at beginning of 2011 and aims to provide training courses to master trainers in various vocational education institutions which targets to reduce youth unemployment rate in OIC Member Countries.

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24-28 OCTOBER 2011, ISTANBUL / TURKEY

Certificate Ceremony of the Master Trainers from Republic of Azerbaijan

Poverty Alleviation Programme (OIC-PAP)

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SESRIC has established OIC Poverty Alleviation Programme (OIC-PAP) to have more active and vital role in coordination of all possible future events, trainings, capacity building programmes, research and other activities in the field of poverty alleviation.

Poverty Alleviation Programme (OIC-PAP)

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Final Remarks

• Youth as a strength• High share of young population

• Youth as a challenge• Qualitative improvements in education is needed in addition to

quantitative improvements• Provision of right skills to the young

• Youth as a threat• Social unrests due to high unemployment rates

• Responses to the challenges• International responses through ALMPs• SESRIC responses: OIC-VET, SDYE, OIC-ISIP,IMTP, OIC-PAP

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DİSCUSSİONSState of the Muslim Youth

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