The status of science to support REDD+ based mitigation policies of Mexico

Bernardus de Jong, El Colegio de la Frontera SurFernando Paz, Colegio de PostgraduadosMarcela Olguin, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur Jorge D. Etchevers, Colegio de Postgraduado Carlos Omar Cruz, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía

3rd NACP ALL-INVESTIGATORS MEETING, New Orleans January 31-Febr 4NACP: Science to Inform Carbon Management and Future Projections

Thursday, February 3

REDD+ is accepted at COP16:

Emission reductions

Stock conservation and enhancement (removals)

1. Stock * LU-change

2. Stock change * LU-change

Deforestation

Degradation Deforestation

ReforestationRecovering

1.2.1.2.2.

National

State

Region

Land owners Land owners

Region

Land owners

Bottom up-Top down Strategy

Reference emission scenario

Annual rates of change (ha/yr), based on national LU maps 1993-2002 2002-2007Gross Deforestation 595,400 590,400Reforestation (natural and planted) 264,600 392,700Net Deforestation 330,800 197,700 Degradation 633,000 415,800Recovering 176,000 109,400Net Degradation 457,000 306,400

Historical rates of forest conversion

5 * 5 km in forested areas (1600 m2) 20 * 20 km in non-forested areas Quantitative data on trees and shrubs Semi-quantitative data on other pools Litter, CWD and Soil carbon

measurements from 2009 onward 20% re-measured every year

Develop biomass density maps to estimate level of emissions from LU-change.

National inventory data and national database of biomass equations

Allometric equations to convert inventory and other data to volume or biomass

BiomassVolume

Addionally:

4 Generic equations for trees according to ecosystem (Tropical humid, tropical dry, cloud forest, scrub desert)

- 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0

BABA/VSA

BBBB/VSa

BCBGBJ

BJ/VSaBM

BM/VSABP

BP/VSABPQ

BPQ/VSABQ

BQ/VSaBQP

BQP/VSABS

BS/VSa

Av Biomass and 95% CI

Estimate biomass density in each forest type

123456789

1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132

0 50 100 150 200

Oak primary

Oak secondary

Mg Biomass ha-1

Stat

e ID

Assign biomass densities to each polygon of the LU maps

(Trees and shrubs)

250

0

y = 52.432Ln(x) - 48.869R2 = 0.9667

y = 50.553Ln(x) - 42.742R2 = 0.7897

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0 20 40 60 80 100

Age

Biomass (Mg/ha)

Methodologies to estimate growth

• Chronosequence• Growth ring analysis• Permanent monitoring plots

Stock change:

Identify forest areas that are under high risk due to drivers

National

State

Region

Land owners Land owners

Region

Land owners

Bottom up-Top down Strategy

81.3% forests and 18.2% grasslands73.3% with tree dominated canopy.66.1% are degraded forest.

BIOSPHERE RESERVE «EL OCOTE»

SCALE EFFECT

1:250,000 1:5,000

88.2% forests y 10.5% grasslands.70.1% with tree dominated canopy.30.2% are degraded forests.

Intact forestDegraded forestNon-forest

Detailed mapping from

satellite images to develop

community-based reference

scenarios and monitoring systems

Satelllite derived LU maps combined with land tenure maps

Pilot “Chiapas”Semi-intensive and rapid Appraisal

“El Ocote”

MRV

Intensive Forest Inventory Plots(Emission factors)

EXAMPLE IN A PROPERTY

Rapid Appraisal Sites, key parameters

Semi-Intensive Quantitative Sampling Sites

Acahual Agrícola Cafetal

Enriquecido con

árboles Potrero SelvaAcahual 30.75 2 32.75Acahual mejorado 1 1Agrícola 43.25 54 0.25 97.5Agrícola (café abono) 3.5 3.5 0.5 7.5Cafetal 5 1.5 30.31 1 37.81Enriq. con árboles 0.7 3 1 4.7Enriq. con chapaya 0.25 3 8 11.25Potrero 1 0.5 1 63.5 66Selva 197.8 197.8Total general 85.45 59.5 30.31 4.25 70.5 206.3 456.31

Uso futuro

Uso actual

Total general

Reference Emission Scenario

Community 5-year LU Plan

Community Comm.

Reference scenario (ERC)

Regional Reference Scenario (ERR)

Plan Vivo (PV)

ERC-PV

ERR-PV

Tierra Nueva 1.850 -0.273 -0.391 +++ + San Juan Chamula

-1.146 -0.273 -0.715 -- ++

Armando Zebadua

-0.306 -0.273 -0.200 - -

Veinte Casas 0.430 -0.273 -0.997 +++ ++

REDD+ compared to Emission scenario

Forest fires

CO2 fluxes 1991- 2009Mg CO2/ha/yr

THANK YOU

bjong@ecosur.mx