the strategic forum (established 1990) is a place of assembly for strategic conversations....

The Strategic ForumProprietor and Principal Consultant Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis

[email protected]

Established 1990

THE STRATEGIC FORUMA place of assembly

for strategic conversations

BMI

Studium Ad Prosperandum

Voluntas in Conveniendum

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Developing competitive industry foresight

andstrategic leadership as a way of business life.



Our ContextWe assist organisations in developing the competitive foresight

required to influence the direction and shape of industryevolution,and

STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP AS A WAY OF BUSINESS LIFE.We achieve this through

EXCELLENCE in our CORE COMPETENCIES of

scenario learning

competitive industry foresight

strategic and scenario research

strategy regeneration

leadership reinvention

organisational reinvention

www.strategicforum.co.za

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Developing competitive industry foresightand

strategic leadership as a way of business life.

Developing competitive industry foresightand

strategic leadership as a way of business life.

The Strategic Forum (established 1990) is a place of assembly for strategic conversations. Subscribers meet twice per year to discuss

the State of the Economy; the State of the Building-, Construction-, and

Property Environments and to make sense of the Future.

Many commissioned market research studies are conducted into new

product positioning, feasibility studies, mergers, acquisitions and

diversification strategies. The generic information gathered contributes

to the knowledge bank of BMI-BRSCU and benefits all clients.

BMI-BRSCU Maintain a comprehensive data-bank on the Industry and

the Market for Major Building Product Groups.


THE STRATEGIC FORUMwww.strategicforum.co.za

Some underlying principles on which our Strategic Forum is based


� The pace of change has accelerated way beyond the comfort zone of most

people

� The rules that guided decisions in the past, are no longer reliable

� The elements of change that are driving these momentous shifts, are

based on the fundamental dimensions of the universe itself.

� Time, space and mass (Stan Davis : 2001)

Some underlying principles on which our Strategic Forum is based


� Connectivity is putting everyone and

everything on-line in one way or another and has

led to the death of distance, a shrinking of space.

� Intangible value of all kinds like service and

information, is growing explosively, reducing the

importance of tangible mass.

� Connectivity, Speed and Intangibles – the

derivatives of time, space and mass – are

blurring the rules and redefining our businesses

and our lives.

� What we see is a

melt-down of all traditional boundaries.(Stan Davis : 2001)


� Since the economy and business are part of

the universe, time, space and mass are the

fundamental dimensions of them as well.

� Until recently, this notion was too abstract to

be very useful.

� Now we are realising the extraordinary power

this insight has to the business world.

� Almost instantaneous communication and

computation are shrinking time and

focusing us on speed.(Stan Davis : 2001)

These are some the underlying principles on which our Strategic Forum is based


STRATEGIC FORUM

Quarterly MeetingsResearch

STRATEGY REGENERATION

Workshops

ORGANISATIONALREINVENTION

Workshops

LEADERSHIPREINVENTION

Workshops

Monthly Reports Quarterly Reports Annual Reports Scenario models

SCENARIOSWorld

South AfricaBuilding Industry

ConstructionResidential Property

Commercial PropertyLocal Government

WaterRefurbishment

Facilities ManagementFurniture

Low Income Housing

News Trends Survey Results

TrendsStrategy Letter


Trends Leadership Letter

Trends Reinvention Letter

PORTFOLIO

A place of assembly for strategic conversations

Lessons from the future !


STRATEGIC FORUM



Workshops


Workshops


Workshops


SCENARIOSWorld




WaterRefurbishment


Low Income Housing

News Trends Survey Results





PORTFOLIO


Leadership across Worldviews !



KNOWN AND UNKNOWNwww.strategicforum.co.za

An internet search of “known unknown” in the autumn of 2010

resulted in more than 300000 entries, 250 000 of which was linked to Donald Rumsfeld.

“The phrase first became publicly linked to me in early 2002. Toward the end of one of my Pentagon press briefings, a journalist told me that ‘reports’ were suggesting the absence of a link between Saddam Hussein’s regime and terrorists seeking weapons of mass destruction.These unidentified reports, the questioner suggested, were

evidence of a lack of a ‘direct link’”.

“Reports that say something hasn’t happened are always

interesting to me because as we know, there are known knowns: there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns: that is to say we know there are some things (we know) we do not know.But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know.

And if we look throughout the history of our country and other

free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the

difficult one.

“At first glance, the logic may seem obscure. But behind the

enigmatic language is a simple truth about knowledge:there are many things of which we are completely unaware –

in fact there are things of which we are so unaware, we don’t even know we are unaware of them.


“Known knowns are facts, rules and laws that we know with certainty. We know for example, that gravity is what makes an object fall to the ground.Known unknowns are gaps in our knowledge, but they are gaps that we know exist. We know, for example that we don’t know the exact extent of

Iran’s nuclear weapons programme. If we ask the right questionswe can potentially fill this gap in our knowledge, eventually making it a known known.

“The category of unknown unknowns is the most difficult to

grasp. They are gaps in our knowledge, but gaps we don’t

know exist. Genuine surprises tend to arise out of this category.

Nineteen hijackers using commercial airlines as guided

missiles to incinerate three thousand men, women and

children was perhaps the most horrific single unknown unknown America has experienced.”


Known knowns• We know the industry as far as the reported information is concerned;

• We know that the Industry is interconnected;

• We know that we don’t spend sufficient time in Socratic dialogue, asking the

right questions.

Known unknowns

• We know that our information is not complete and some of our information is

based on assumptions;

• We know that we can’t forecast the future;

• We don’t know what the Affordable Housing Plans of Government entails;

• We don’t know what the Infrastructure programme of Government entails or

how the roll-out will take place;

• We don’t know what the plans of the Banks are with regard to Mortgage

Advances;• We don’t know what will happen if Malema becomes President;

• We don’t know exactly how the industry connections work.

Unknown unknowns• We don’t know where the next surprise will come from;

• We don’t know what we don’t know.

But we can ask the right questions and fill the gaps in our knowledge. . .

But we can be alert to weak signals of change, listen “outside the boundaries” and do scenario thinking. . .

KNOWN AND UNKNOWN IN OUR INDUSTRYwww.strategicforum.co.za

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) urged

the Bank of England to raise interest ratesto avert the possibility of a crash in

house prices.

It also warned about the risks posed by high

levels of household debt, saying, 'the

main risk to the outlook is the possibility of an abrupt correction in

the housing market'.(The Telegraph, London, 25 April 2004)

Early warning (in our 2004 Strategic Forum).

Not heeded?KNOWN UNKNOWN?


THE STRATEGIC FORUM DASHBOARDwww.strategicforum.co.za

In his address to statisticians, Mr Manuel bemoaned the lack of use of statistics, particularly those generated by Statistics SA, by public office holders and members of the public service to create policy.

"Sometimes one feels that the kind of policy papers used could have been written 20 years ago and in another country," he said.

In some cases decision makers acted as though they did not need statistics, because they had the answers even before the question was put.

"Sometimes, this may well be a consequence of

ignorance — the people who are expected to

have access to information simply do not! And

sometimes it may be a consequence of

decision makers not caring because there are

no consequences," he said.

Mr Manuel went on to name the three impediments to development as "ideology, ignorance and inertia".

He also commented that perhaps the lack of use of statistics was directly related to the country’s educational system, which did not encourage curiosity among its students. (Business Day, 16 July 2013)

Planning Minister Trevor Manuel.


At our BMI Strategic Forum we have always ascribed to a paradigm of sharing all information with our subscribers on the premise that knowledge must be freely shared and empowering. Accordingly we developed an improved information management system to facilitate the process.

We have collected all the Building, Construction and Property (BCP) information together in 6 Dashboards in one interconnected model thus providing a complete BCP system overview at a glance.

1. BPP by Province Dashboard;2. BC by Province Dashboard; 3. Building Industry Dashboard; 4. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Dashboard;5. Mortgage Advances Dashboard;6. Building Materials Dashboard.

Navigation between Dashboards and to the individual Excel spread-sheets in each Dashboard and is at the click of a button. Each S/S is accompanied by all the Charts necessary to get a complete view. Although the sheets are locked for proprietary reasons, the Charts are accessible and can be copied and pasted.

These Dashboards are updated as information changes and posted on the website for downloading. Advice of postings are on the default page of our website where a quick-link is provided which takes subscribers directly to the web-site page, at which point a subscriber user name and password is required for access.

THE STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF DASHBOARDwww.strategicforum.co.za

� A paper-less strategic forum

� Password enabled access to user-friendly strategic information

� Current information at all times

� Daily, Monthly, Quarterly and Annual updating

� Regular newsletters

� Sense making of information overload in scenario context

� Ongoing strategic conversations


� Bridging the gap between daily events and long-term scenarios

� Information arbitrage across industry boundaries - breaking the “silo” paradigm

� Developing larger world view and challenging mindsets

� Developing industry foresight

� Leveraging the strategic quotient of leadership team

� Contributing to learning culture


� The Strategic Forum is not simply an assembly where strategic conversations

take place

� By attaching it to a Web-site – putting it on-line, making it interactive, allowing it to learn – we’re attempting to practise what

we teach

� We share details of just about everything we do in a holistic empowering

process


THE STRATEGIC FORUM

� It is based on the Silicon Valley model, where views are readily shared

� We appreciate that spreading knowledge quickly increases everyone’s

learning, and we know there is more than enough opportunity to go around

� By giving away information we attract more ideas from our clients in a

mutually reinforcing learning cycle


THE STRATEGIC FORUM

� Networking relationships and information

arbitrage are crucial to the success of the

strategic forum

� The forum promotes networking across

industry boundaries and facilitates leadership

across wider world-views

� Leveraged learning comes through the

challenging of existing mental models and

industry recipes by a questioning leadership

community brought together through the

strategic forum


These are some the underlying principles on which our Strategic Forum is based





The prime question to be addressed by organisations, is whether they are well equipped for the future, whether it can continuously reposition itself for competitive advantage, ahead of change. This is achieved by considering the organisation's strategic vision against the scenarios of the

future business environment, to establish the degree of fit.

The strategic regeneration and planning approach followed by BMI-BRSCU therefore takes a holistic view of the environment, identifying trends, core driving forces, strategic issues and key uncertainties and looks into the future by developing scenarios and industry foresight. Scenario planning is dynamic. The focus of attention needs to be on the ongoing strategic conversation,

penetrating both the formal and informal exchange of views through which the strategic understanding develops - and strategic leadership results.

Our contribution to the strategic conversation is by creating (via our Strategic Forum) "… events through which views can be exchanged outside the pressure of immediate decision-making."

(Kees van der Heijden : 1997), triggered by thought- provoking inputs from our scenario team of experts.

We can facilitate strategy regeneration workshops for your company.



CREATING THE FUTURE

CREATIVE TENSIONCREATIVE TENSIONSEEKS RESOLUTION : RESULTS IN ACTION

� STRATEGIC ACTION PLANS� PERFORMANCE GUIDELINES

� BUDGETS

DONE BY MANAGEMENT

SEEKS RESOLUTION : RESULTS IN ACTION� STRATEGIC ACTION PLANS� PERFORMANCE GUIDELINES

� BUDGETS

DONE BY MANAGEMENT

STRATEGIES A LOGIC AND FIRST LEVEL

OF DETAIL, FOR HOW THE VISION CAN BE ACHIEVED

DEVELOPED BY LEADERSHIP CONTEMPORARY ANALYST

STRATEGIES A LOGIC AND FIRST LEVEL

OF DETAIL, FOR HOW THE VISION CAN BE ACHIEVED

DEVELOPED BY LEADERSHIP CONTEMPORARY ANALYST

20202013

CURRENT REALITYINFORMED BY MEMORIES OF

THE PAST(HISTORY)HISTORIAN

CONTEXT : A COMPELLING PICTURE OF THE FUTURE WE WANT TO CREATE.

CREATED BY LEADERSHIP

CONTEXT : A COMPELLING PICTURE OF THE FUTURE WE WANT TO CREATE.

CREATED BY LEADERSHIP VISION

INFORMED BY MEMORIES OF THE FUTURE(SCENARIOS)

PROPHET

CREATING THE FUTURE WITH SCENARIOS

KEY ACTORSSTRATEGIC POSTURE

SCENARIOLOGICS

SCENARIOSTORY LINES

IMPACTS

MONITORINGCURRENT REALITY

vs SCENARIOS

STRATEGIC INTERVENTIONS

CRITICALSUCCESS FACTORS

SCENARIO VARIABLESDRIVING

STRUCTURAL CHANGE

FOCAL ISSUESTRATEGIC INTENT

STRATEGIES

STRATEGICISSUES

KEYCERTAINTIES

KEY CHALLENGES

CORE DRIVING FORCES

KEY UNCERTAINTIES

CREATIVE TENSION

SEEKS RESOLUTION

RESULTS IN ACTION

THE GLUE

THATHOLDS

STRATEGYTOGETHER

Regenerating Strategy : Strategic Leadership as a way of Business Life

PARADIGMSand

PARADIGM SHIFT

LEADERSHIP STYLELEADERSHIP STYLECULTURE, VALUES

SCENARIOS

CORPORATE CHALLENGES, COMPETITIVE INNOVATION, STRATEGIC ACTION PLANSSHARED UNDERSTANDING AND COMMITMENT

TAPPING THE COLLECTIVE WISDOM OF THE TOTAL ORGANISATION

PERFORMANCE MILESTONESMeasuring Success

STRUCTURERequired for the future

STRATEGIESCORE COMPETENCIES

FUTURE BUSINESS IDEASTRATEGIC ARCHITECTURE

RESOURCES, SKILLS, KEY CAPABILITIES

FUTURE DRIVING FORCE

SWOTCHANGING GAME RULES

REDEFINING BOUNDARIES

STRATEGIC INTENTVISION, MISSION, SLOGAN

VALUES, CONTEXT

CURRENT REALITYRULES OF THE GAME

BUSINESS IDEA

STRATEGIC FORUM



Workshops


Workshops


Workshops


SCENARIOSWorld




WaterRefurbishment


Low Income Housing

Trends Survey Results




PORTFOLIO



An holistic portfolio of products and services.

Leveraging the strategic quotient of the

organisation.

A wide range of Products and Services availableContact us via our web-site

Or e-mail [email protected]

THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za

the strategic forum (established 1990) is a place of assembly for strategic conversations....

Business

knowledge bank of bmi

strategic leadership

strategic forum proprietor

competitive foresight

way of business life

major building product

shape of industry evolution

place of assembly