The Success Stories and its Limits: The Concrete Case Studies (3 lectures) - Russia/Soviet Union- Latin America in the Era of Catching Up Industrialisation- East Asian Miracle: The Rise of the New Industrial Pole

The empire model of modernisationGoals maintenance of military-political power, ability to defensive and offensive warMeans modernisation of army & the state governance, selective borrowings of the advanced technolo-gies and scientific accomplishments important for militarisation

The Rise of Dualism in RussiaArmy & military industryresourcesExploitation ofcountry-side Conservation of backwardness as the main obstacle to further modernisation

The rise of capital-function as the effect of the internal contradiction of commodity production between:

- a goal to increase a mass of exchange valueand

- a necessity to diminish value of each commodity unit and to sell as many goods as possible

The essential features of the post-war capitalism (1)

Technological base:mass conveyor production upon the base of rational, scientific organisation of labour and management for mass consumption;the principle of rhythmical input-output (rhythm in input-output);standardisation of equipment, tools and output

The essential features of the post-war capitalism (2)

Big corporations and strong trade unions, oligopolistic competition;Planning and the state regulation of markets for maintaining an effective demand (Keynesianism), mixed economyBudget deficits and moderate inflationHard regulation of financial and banking sectors, fixed exchange currency ratios.Socialist-liberal, or liberal-socialist, consensus.

The Stages of Economic Growth by Walt Rostow (1960)

- Traditional society- Transition- Take-off- Maturity- Mass consumption society- Post-industrial society (added in 1971)

Theories of development review in brief

Hans Singer (1911-2006) Ral Prebisch (1901-1986) Franz Fanon (1925-1961), Les damns de la terre (The Damned, The Wretched of the Earth), 1961 K.G. Myrdal (1898-1987): The Asian Drama: An Inquiry into the Poverty of Nations, vols. I III, 1968 (German edition of 1973)Anbal Pinto Santa Cruz(1918 -1996)Celso Furtado (1920-2004)

Dependientistas and their main ideas.

Underdevelopment is not the stage of development but the effect of development in the global scale;Dualism of society (co-existence of traditional and modern sectors) has been reproduced in the process of development;Minimal contacts with the First World countries are necessary;Development of capitalism cannot abolish pre-capitalist, traditional sector of economy and society because it reproduces the latter;Industrialisation does not allow abolishing the external dependency.

Andre Gnder Frank (1929-2005)

Capitalism and Underdevelopment in Latin America: Historical Studies of Chile and Brazil (1967)Latin America: Underdevelopment or Revolution. Essays on the Development of Underdevelopment and the Immediate Enemy (1969)World Accumulation, 1492-1789 (1978)

Samir Amin (born 1931)

Laccumulation lchelle mondiale: critique de la theorie du sous-dveloppement (1971)English edition: Accumulation on a World Scale: A Critique of the Theory of Underdevelopment (1974)

Immanuel Wallerstein (born in 1930)

The Modern World-System, vol. I: Capitalist Agriculture and the Origins of the European World-Economy in the Sixteenth Century (1974)The Modern World-System, vol. II: Mercantilism and the Consolidation of the European World-Economy, 1600-1750 (1980)The Modern World-System, vol. III: The Second Great Expansion of the Capitalist World-Economy, 1730-1840's (1989)Historical Capitalism, with Capitalist Civilization (1995)Decline of American Power: The U.S. in a Chaotic World (2003)World-Systems Analysis: An Introduction (2004)European Universalism: The Rhetoric of Power (2006)

Fernando Henrique Cardoso & Enzo Faletto

Dependencia y desarrollo en Amrica Latina: Un ensayo de interpretacin sociolgica, 1969.

Searching for New Development Strategy

Mahbub ul-Haq (1934-1996) and the UN Development Programmes (Human Development Report).Amartya Sen (born in 1933):

Development as Freedom (1998)

Alexander Pushkin on the internal central-peripheral structure of RussiaWhatever for caprice of spendingingenious London has been sendingacross the Baltic in exchangefor wood and tallow; all the rangeof useful objects that the curiousParisian taste invents for one for friends of languor, or of fun,or for the modishly luxurious all this, at eighteen years of ageadorned the sanctum of our sage. (Eugene Onegin)

GDP per capita in some countries of Latin America and Europe (including Russia), 1870-1938

CountriesAbsolute amount of GDP per capita, measured by PPP (in dollars of 1990)The ratio of countries GDP per capita to the world average1870190019131929193818701900191319291938France1 8582 8493 4524 6664 4242.022.182.172.472.30Germany1 9133 1343 8334 3355 1262.082.402.412.302.67United Kingdom3 2634 5935 0325 2555 9833.553.523.162.793.11Russia/USSR1 0231 2181 4881 3862 1501.110.930.930.741.12Argentina1 3112 7563 7974 3674 0721.432.112.392.322.12Brazil7407048391 1061 2910.800.540.530.590.67Chile-1 9492 6533 3963 139-1.491.671.801.63Mexico7101 1571 4671 4891 3800.770.890.920.790.72Venezuela-8211 1043 4264 144-0.630.691.822.15World in average *)9201 3051 5921 8841 9231.001.001.001.001.00

For comparison of Uruguay with Denmark Dieter Sengaas. The European Experience: A Historical Critique of Development Theory. Leamington Spa, Dover (N.H.): Berg Publishers, 1985 (1-st published in Frankfurt-am-Main, 1982, in German)

The ratio of some Latin American and European countries (including Russia/USSR) GDP per capita to the world average, 1929-1970

Countries19291938195019601970France2. 472. 302. 332. 552. 92Germany/FRG2. 302. 671. 912. 893. 03United Kingdom2. 793. 113. 142. 922. 70Russia/USSR0. 741. 121. 271. 341. 40Argentina2. 322. 122. 231. 901. 84Brazil0. 590. 670. 750. 800. 77Chile1. 801. 631. 711. 471. 32Mexico0. 790. 720. 930. 950. 95Venezuela1. 822. 153. 323. 322. 73World in average *)1. 001. 001. 001. 001. 00

Limits of Import Substitution Industrialisation to itself (Latin America)1) A shortage of material, financial, and human resources;2) Conservation of the internal central-peripheral structure;3) Necessity to enlarge importation of capital goods and to maintain the traditional export;4) Impossibility to redistribute national income in extending degree

1

0.0220.9750.003

0.4140.5850.001

Manufactured goods

Primary goods

Other

The structure of the external trade of Brazil, 1960-1984

1 - Brasil

2.2%97.5%0.3%100.0%

41.4%58.5%0.1%100.0%

1 - Brasil

Manufactured goods

Primary goods

Other

The structure of the external trade of Brazil, 1960-1984

2

3

Brazil dynamics of GDP (1965-1980) and the public external debt (1965-1975)

3

11

2.74.5

GDP, 1965-1980

The public external debt, 1965-1975

1965 = 1,0

1 - Brasil

2.2%97.5%0.3%100.0%

41.4%58.5%0.1%100.0%

1 - Brasil

Manufactured goods

Primary goods

Other

The structure of the external trade of Brazil, 1960-1984

2 - Brasil - deuda

1.02.7

1.04.5

2 - Brasil - deuda

GDP, 1965-1980

The public external debt, 1965-1975

1965 = 1,0

3

Brazil skyrocketing growth of the external debt, 1978 1980 1985, billions US$

4

52.285

70.025

101.92

1 - Brasil

2.2%97.5%0.3%100.0%

41.4%58.5%0.1%100.0%

1 - Brasil

Manufactured goods

Primary goods

Other

The structure of the external trade of Brazil, 1960-1984

2 - Brasil - deuda

1.02.7

1.04.5

2 - Brasil - deuda

GDP, 1965-1980

The public external debt, 1965-1975

1965 = 1,0

3 - Brasil- deuda

52.28570.025101.920

3 - Brasil- deuda

Two generations of tigersThe first-tier tigers- Hong Kong- Singapore- Taiwan- South Korea

The second-tier tigers- Malaysia- Thailand- Indonesia (semi-tiger)- The Philippines (under-tiger)

GDP p/c (US$ of 1990 on PPP) 1960-1970-1980-1990

1

2335315531342310149211051378755

3057432056954439298019541424782

51986289105039058586941141157617

492361191754114365988687041063525

Brazil

Mexico

Hong Kong

Singapore

Taiwan

South Korea

Ghana

Congo, DR (Zaire)

1 - Brasil

2.2%97.5%0.3%100.0%

41.4%58.5%0.1%100.0%

1 - Brasil

000

000

Manufactured goods

Primary goods

Other

The structure of the external trade of Brazil, 1960-1984

2 - Brasil - deuda

1.02.7

1.04.5

2 - Brasil - deuda

00

00

GDP, 1965-1980

The public external debt, 1965-1975

1965 = 1,0

3 - Brasil- deuda

52.28570.025101.920

3 - Brasil- deuda

4 - Starting level

1960197019801990

Brasil2335305751984923

Mexico3155432062896119

Hong Kong313456951050317541

Singapore23104439905814365

Taiwan1492298058699886

South Korea1105195441148704

Ghana1378142411571063

Congo, DR (Zaire)755782617525

4 - Starting level

Brazil

Mexico

Hong Kong

Singapore

Taiwan

South Korea

Ghana

Congo, DR (Zaire)

GDP p/c (US$ of 1990 on PPP) 1960-1970-1980-1990

1960197019801990Brazil2335305751984923Mexico3155432062896119Hong Kong313456951050317541Singapore23104439905814365Taiwan1492298058699886South Korea1105195441148704Ghana1378142411571063Congo, DR (Zaire)755782617525

Flying Geese ModelK. Akamatsu. A Historical Pattern of Economic Growth in Developing Countries. The Developing Economies, vol. 1, N 1, March August 1962.P. Korhonen. The Theory of the Flying Geese Pattern of Development and Its Interpretations. Journal of Peace Research, vol. 31, N 1, 1994.M. Tateishi. Southeast Asian Flying Geese? In: Southeast Asias Misunderstood Miracle: Industrial Policy and Economic Development in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Ed. by K. S. Jomo. Boulder (Col.), Oxford: Westview Press, 1997.UNCTAD. Trade and Development Report 1996. N.Y., Geneva: UN, 1996, pp. 75-81.

The gross internal investments in fixed capital, as percentage of GDP, in East/Southeast Asian Newly Industrialising Countries, 1970-1995

CountriesY e a r s197019751980198519901995Hong Kong18.619.333.221.526.130.6Korea24.525.632.128.637.336.7Singapore32.535.140.742.232.533.7Taiwan, prov.n. a.n. a.n. a.18.822.422.9Indonesia13.6 a)20.3 a)20.9 b)23.128.328.4Malaysia16.125.131.136.332.443.0Thailand24.122.325.227.240.441.1

The gross internal investments in fixed capital, as percentage of GDP, in East/Southeast Asian Newly Industrialising Countries, 1970-1975-1980-1985-1990-1995

4

18.624.532.5

19.325.635.1

33.232.140.7

21.528.642.218.8

26.137.332.522.4

30.636.733.722.9

Hong Kong

Korea

Singapore

Taiwan

1 - Brasil

2.2%97.5%0.3%100.0%

41.4%58.5%0.1%100.0%

1 - Brasil

000

000

Manufactured goods

Primary goods

Other

The structure of the external trade of Brazil, 1960-1984

2 - Brasil - deuda

1.02.7

1.04.5

2 - Brasil - deuda

00

00

GDP, 1965-1980

The public external debt, 1965-1975

1965 = 1,0

3 - Brasil- deuda

52.28570.025101.920

3 - Brasil- deuda

4 - Starting level

1960197019801990

Brasil2335305751984923

Mexico3155432062896119

Hong Kong313456951050317541

Singapore23104439905814365

Taiwan1492298058699886

South Korea1105195441148704

Ghana1378142411571063

Congo, DR (Zaire)755782617525

4 - Starting level

Brazil

Mexico

Hong Kong

Singapore

Taiwan

South Korea

Ghana

Congo, DR (Zaire)

5- Investment

197019751980198519901995

Hong Kong18.619.333.221.526.130.6

Korea24.525.632.128.637.336.7

Singapore32.535.140.742.232.533.7

Taiwan18.822.422.9

Indonesia13.620.320.923.128.328.4

Malaysia16.125.131.136.332.443.0

Thailand24.122.325.227.240.441.1

5- Investment

Hong Kong

Korea

Singapore

Taiwan

5

13.616.124.1

20.325.122.3

20.931.125.2

23.136.327.2

28.332.440.4

28.44341.1

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

1 - Brasil

2.2%97.5%0.3%100.0%

41.4%58.5%0.1%100.0%

1 - Brasil

000

000

Manufactured goods

Primary goods

Other

The structure of the external trade of Brazil, 1960-1984

2 - Brasil - deuda

1.02.7

1.04.5

2 - Brasil - deuda

00

00

GDP, 1965-1980

The public external debt, 1965-1975

1965 = 1,0

3 - Brasil- deuda

52.28570.025101.920

3 - Brasil- deuda

4 - Starting level

1960197019801990

Brasil2335305751984923

Mexico3155432062896119

Hong Kong313456951050317541

Singapore23104439905814365

Taiwan1492298058699886

South Korea1105195441148704

Ghana1378142411571063

Congo, DR (Zaire)755782617525

4 - Starting level

Brazil

Mexico

Hong Kong

Singapore

Taiwan

South Korea

Ghana

Congo, DR (Zaire)

5- Investment

197019751980198519901995

Hong Kong18.619.333.221.526.130.6

Korea24.525.632.128.637.336.7

Singapore32.535.140.742.232.533.7

Taiwan18.822.422.9

Indonesia13.620.320.923.128.328.4

Malaysia16.125.131.136.332.443.0

Thailand24.122.325.227.240.441.1

5- Investment

Hong Kong

Korea

Singapore

Taiwan

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

The Developmental StateThe Developmental State. Ed. by Meredith Woo-Cumings. Ithaca London: Cornell University Press, 1999Ha-Joon Chang. The East Asian Development Experience: The Miracle, the Crisis and the Future. London New York: Zed Books, 2006

The colonial heritage and development

*****Source: Maddison A. 1995. Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992. OECD, Paris, pp. 23-24, 212. **Counted on: Maddison A., 1995 (see note to slide 5), pp. 23-24, 212. ********a) including increase in stocks b) 1979***Georgetown (Penang, Malaysia) Monument to Sir Francis Light.