www.uafsunstar.com 9October 12, 2010West Ridge ReportWest Ridge Report12 The Sun StarOctober 5, 2010

Jeremia Schrock & Amber SandlinSun Star Reporters

The Arctic Ocean: 1000 possibilities and perils

The melting sea ice By the year 2038, the fabled Northwest

Passage through the Arctic Ocean may fi-

nally be open.

For the past 30 years, the Arctic has been

losing it’s summer sea ice. If the climate

doesn’t change, Arctic sea ice will continue

to vanish until there is nothing left to melt,

according to the National Oceanic and At-

mospheric Administration’s (NOAA) web-

site. NOAA projections have shown that by

2038, the Arctic may be almost entirely ice-

free during the summer months.

For polar bears and other forms of Alaska

wildlife that rely on that sea ice, this is a

problem. For Alaska’s human population,

it is an opportunity. That opportunity is the

possibility of opening the North Slope to

trans-Arctic shipping.

“Right now, few people think that Arctic

shipping is going to be an issue,” said Hajo

Eicken, a professor of sea ice geophysics at

UAF, citing several potential problems to be

faced by a hypothetical trans-Arctic ship-

ping company. These problems include

less weather predictability, higher fuel cost,

and the necessity for ships to be built with

thicker hulls capable of withstanding an im-

pact with an iceberg.

An Arctic Ocean free of summer sea

ice is no guarantee for an Arctic free of ice-

bergs, said Eicken. A problem that summer-

time Alaskan waters would face is icebergs

formed from the calving events of the in-

creasingly unstable ice shelves found in the

Canadian Arctic. Some of these bergs would

subsequently become caught in the Beau-

fort Gyre to then be flung past Alaska’s North

Slope. The Beaufort Gyre is a wind-driven

ice circulation pattern near the North Pole.

The impact on Arctic shipping “If [Arctic marine shipping] is done care-

fully and responsibly, it [will] have very lit-

tle impact on the environment,” said Todd

O’Hara, a UAF scientist who specializes

in the wildlife toxicology of Arctic marine

mammals. While O’Hara is willing to ad-

mit he supports the opening of the Arctic to

shipping, he feels that ascertaining the en-

vironmental costs of such an endeavor are

crucial in determining its worth.

O’Hara cited the Deepwater Horizon oil

spill in the Gulf of Mexico as proof that, in

the event of a disaster, coordinating an ap-

propriate response is critical. He added that

Dangerous fun One event cited by the USCG occurred

off the coast of Antarctica in November

2007. A cruise liner, the MS Explorer, struck

an iceberg while sailing through the Brans-

field Strait near King George Island. While

the passengers and crew were rescued after

only five hours adrift, their rescue was made

possible because of their proximity to sev-

eral other merchant vessels, as well as the

Argentinean and Chilean coast guard

Princess Cruises, one of Alaska’s biggest

cruise lines, said that they currently have

no intention of expanding their maritime

tourism business to the Arctic Ocean in the

event that it becomes ice free.

A distant protector

The biggest prohibition in Arctic marine

safety is the lack of infrastructure. In the

eventuality that “full seasonal operations

in the Arctic” become necessary, the USCG

will be the primary provider of maritime

safety and security in the region. In fact, an

internal presentation within the USCG said,

“the Arctic is upon us.”

According to an interview in the North

Slope newspaper, The Arctic Sounder, Capt.

William Deal, the commanding officer of

the USCG air station at Kodiak, said any res-

cue attempt as far north as the Arctic “would

likely require use of a Coast Guard icebreak-

er or air-refuelable helicopters from the U.S.

Air Force.” Deal was referencing an event

that occurred in June where the USCG sent

a C-130 out of Kodiak to assess whether or

not a team of Russian researchers near the

North Pole was under distress. They were

not.

Currently, there is no USCG station or for-

ward operating base located anywhere on

the North Slope. However, the building of

a USCG station at Point Barrow is currently

in the works, according to Jeremy Zidek, a

spokesperson for the State of Alaska’s Divi-

sion of Homeland Security and Emergency

Management (DHS&EM).

“It is certainly a concern that more

shipping is going on there,” Zidek added.

A changing ecosystem For UAF wildlife biologist Skip Walker,

if the Arctic were open today there would

be an immediate “increased human pres-

ence in the Arctic.” Walker, who focuses

on the disturbance and recovery of Arctic

ecosystems, foresees an ice-free Arctic as

providing Alaska with increased access to

its natural resources, making their develop-

ment more economically feasible. In all like-

lihood, these developments would act as a

stimulant to Alaska’s economy.

“As far as ecosystems go, this is a huge

question that goes beyond the consequenc-

es of the Arctic becoming a major shipping

route,” he continued. “Obviously, melting

sea ice would allow shipping lanes to open

up. But the melting sea-ice also has big im-

pacts on the adjacent land areas.”

Walker believes that over the next cen-

tury, Alaska will see gradual changes to its

Arctic ecosystems, adding that the loss of

coastal summer sea-ice along mainland

areas that are currently tundra “would very

likely cause these areas to change to boreal

forest,” much as they would have been dur-

ing the Late Cretaceous period 65 million

years ago.

*The year in which the Arctic Ocean will be

almost entirely ice-free for the summer.

2038*

142**The number of years

the United States Coast has been

patrolling the Arctic

$1.6B**The amount of money Sen.

Mark Begich wants to ap-propriate to build two new polar-capable icebreakers.

The Arctic is upon us. - United States Coast Guard

in the event of an Arctic disaster, Canada

and the U.S. would probably work close to-

gether. Eicken felt the same.

One organization that is concerned with

the annual loss of sea ice is the United States

Arctic Research Commission (USARC).

USARC held its 94th meeting this past week

at UAF to discuss issues facing the Arctic re-

gion. However, concern by the commission

over thinning Arctic ice and its potential

ramifications for the region date back to as

early as 2002.

According to one USARC article, the “Ca-

nadian Archipelago will be ice-free and

open to navigation by non ice-strengthened

ships in summer.”

The unpredictability of polar environments

has led organizations like the United States

Coast Guard (USCG) and the University of

the Arctic Institute for Applied Circumpolar

Policy (IACP) to begin discussing the prob-

lems of maintaining maritime law enforce-

ment and marine safety in such regions.

If [Arctic marine shipping] is done carefully and re-sponsibly it [will] have very little impact

on the environment.

-Todd O’Hara, UAF Wildlife Biologist

ICETECH 2010: A conference held this Sep-

tember by the Arctic Section of the Society

of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers

(SNAME) whose theme was “Performance

of Ships and Structures in Ice.”

Shell Offshore, Inc: Filed an application

with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Manage-

ment on Oct. 6 to drill an exploration well in

the Beaufort Sea next summer.

Princess Cruises: Has no intent of expand-

ing their tourist operations to the Arctic

Ocean.

Hajo Eicken: A professor of sea ice geophys-

ics at UAF who believes that attempting to

ship goods across the Arctic Ocean is not

cost-effective at the present time.

United States Arctic Research Commis-sion (USARC): Has stated that the Cana-

dian Arctic is already open to navigation by

non-ice strengthened ships. Held a confer-

ence at UAF this month (October) to discuss

Arctic issues.

United States Coast Guard (USCG): Is pre-

paring to take on a greater role patrolling

the Arctic Ocean. Intends to build a station

at Point Barrow.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad-ministration (NOAA): Believes that the

Arctic will be ice-free within the next 30

years. Fears that a loss of sea ice will result in

severe storms on the Eastern United States.

Marinette Marine Corporation: The recipi-

ents of a $123 million contract to build a

254-foot Alaska Region Research Vessel for

UAF.

Todd O’Hara: A UAF wildlife biologist who

supports shipping through the Arctic if it

can be done safely and responsibility.

S.1561: A senate bill sponsored by Sen. Mark

Begich which calls for an appropriation of

funds in order to build a “fully functional

harbor of refuge throughout the year” at St.

George Island, and three forward operating

bases at Barrow, Nome and St. Paul Island.

Where do things stand now?

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