the sustainability of america’s fisheries: will all fish really be gone by 2048?
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The Sustainability of Americas
Fisheries:
Will all fish really be gone by 2048?
Ray Hilborn
School of Aquatic and Fishery SciencesUniversity of Washington
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The end of the line
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fishing in the ocean is no longer sustainable. Worldwide,we have failed to manage the oceans fisheries in a few
decades, there may be no fisheries left to manage. So what
should be done? Incessant hunting, with increasing
technological proficiency, has decimated fish populationsworldwide. Catches of large marine species, such as
swordfish and tuna, have declined by 80% over the past 20
years. Northern cod, historically a dietary mainstay, and a
species once thought inexhaustible, is all but commercially
extinct in the western North Atlantic. In many areas, bottom
trawls have scoured the seabed clean. These are just a few
examples of the long and miserable record of hunting in the
oceans.
Mara from Nature 2005
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We fish the
large fish
first, then
move down
to smaller
fish --- we
will end upwith nothing
but jellyfish
Pauly 1998 Fishing
Down Food Webs
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Nature 2003
The large fish of
the oceans were
depleted 80-90%
by 1980
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All fish gone by
2048Science 2006
307 Citations
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The Myths
We are fishing down food chains and will have
nothing but jellyfish
80-90% of the large fish of the ocean were
gone by 1980
If current trends continue all stocks will be
collapsed by 2048
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NCEAS working group: Finding common ground in marine
conservation and management
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Stock assessments
Building a data base of abundance, catch,
fishing mortality, recruitment and SSB from as
many stock assessments as possiblethe RAM
Myers Legacy Project
So far about 350 stocks
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1980 2005
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New England Groundfish Biomass 1985-2007
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Stock Size
FishingPressur
e MaximumSustainable Yield
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S
Stock Size
Stock Size
above
targetlevel
Stock Size
below
targetlevel
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Exploitation Rate Higher Than Target Level
FishingPressur
e
Exploitation Rate Below TargetLevel
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Stock Size
FishingPressure
Fully
Exploited
Overfishing
Under
exploited
Overfished
andoverfishing
Over
fished
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Stock Size
FishingPressure
Okay
Possible
Future
Problem
Okay
Current
and FutureProblem
CurrentProblem
Better
Future
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Wormetal.200
9
Stock Size
FishingP
ressure
Assessed stocks in industrial and developed countries
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Wormetal.200
9
Stock Size
FishingP
ressure
Assessed stocks in industrial and developed countries
Rebuilding
Stocks
ProblemStocks
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A detailed history of the demersal
species of the west coast U.S.
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Overfished
Overfished
and
overfishing
Overfishing
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2,500,000
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-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Yellowtail rockfish
Gopher rockfish
Shortspine thornyhead
Starry flounder S
Starry flounder N
Petrale sole S
Petrale sole N
Lingcod S
Lingcod N
Longspine thornyhead
Kelp greenling
Dover sole
Blue rockfish
Blackgill r ockfish
Yelloweye rockfish
Widow rockfish
Sablefish
Pacific ocean perch
Longnose skate
English sole
Darkblotched rockfish
Cowcod
Chilipepper
Canary rockfish
Bocaccio
Blue rockfish
Black rockfish S
Black rockfish N
Groundfish off west coast
Totalabu
ndance
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The common ground
(for the fisheries examined)
Fishing has reduced the abundance in most
ecosystems, and caused collapse of a
significant fraction of stocks
BUT this is expected when maximizing
sustainable yield, and heavily fished
ecosystems appear to stabilize and be
sustainable in their transformed condition
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Correcting the myths
M th I W b i fi hi l l bl fi h d
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Myth I. We begin fishing large valuable fish and
move down the food web, ending up with
jellyfish
Two papers from the Worm et al group
Sethi et al showed that there is no correlation
between price and trophic level or between
trophic level and when a fishery begins Branch et al showed the MTL in catch is
increasing, not declining, and the results of Pauly
et al. 1998 cannot be replicated
Global catch MTLPaulys 1998 data on mean trophic level
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Pauly et al. (1998)
Pauly s 1998 data on mean trophic level
Global catch MTL
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Current data
Pauly et al. (1998)
Branch et al. (2010) Nature 468:431-435
Myth II The large fish of the ocean
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Myth II. The large fish of the oceanwere 90% depleted by 1980
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World catch of Tuna and Billfish
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
Longbill spearfish
Black skipjack
Atlantic white marlin
Blackfin tuna
Black marlin
Billfishes
Striped marlin
Pacific bluefin tuna
Atlantic blue marlin
Southern bluefin tuna
Northern bluefin tuna
Swordfish
Tunas, bonitos, billfishes
Frigate tuna
Albacore
Bigeye tuna
Yellowfin tuna
Skipjack tuna
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Abundance of tuna and billfish
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
SPC-YFINCWPAC-1952-2006-JENSEN
SPC-SKJCWPAC-1972-2007-JENSEN
SPC-BIGEYEWPO-1952-2007-JENSEN
SPC-ALBASPAC-1959-2007-JENSEN
ICCAT-YFINATL-1970-2006-JENSEN
ICCAT-SWORDSATL-1950-2005-JENSEN
ICCAT-SWORDNATL-1978-2007-JENSEN
ICCAT-SKJWATL-1952-2006-JENSEN
ICCAT-SKJEATL-1950-2006-JENSEN
ICCAT-BIGEYEATL-1950-2005-JENSEN
ICCAT-ATBTUNAEATL-1969-2007-WORM
ICCAT-ALBANATL-1929-2005-WORM
The large fish of the ocean were 90%
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The large fish of the ocean were 90%depleted by 1980
The major tuna fisheries of the world (except
bluefin) are not overfished in 2010
Some are less than BMSY but not significantly so
Most are near BMSY
Even Bluefin were not overfished in 1980
Catches since 1980 have been 3 times the
catches prior to 1980
M th III All fi h ill b b 2048
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Myth III. All fish will be gone by 2048
Worm et al. 2009 showed that exploitation
rates had been reduced to MSY levels in most
of the areas for which we had data
For these areas rebuilding is happening not
continued depletion
Wh t li i k t b ild
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What policies work to rebuild
industrial fisheries?
Worm et al 2009 suggests the existing
toolbox is sufficient
There is no silver bullet
Neither MPAs or ITQs were either necessary or
sufficient
A broad range of tools including catch and
effort limitation, temporary or seasonal closed
areas, effort restrictions
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Fisheries have environmental impacts
Abundance is reduced
Some species will be depleted
Ecosystems will be changed
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PRINCIPLE 2:Fishing operations should allow for the
maintenance of the structure, productivity,
function and diversity of the ecosystem(including habitat and associated dependent
and ecologically related species) on which the
fishery depends.
From the MSC web site
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What is the environmental cost of organic
vegetable production
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Fisheries may have less biodiversity cost
than organic agriculture
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How have fisheries been vilified
Foundations and NGOs have spent over 100
million per year on marine issues
Ocean campaigns with gloom and doom are
a major fundraiser
BUT
The data have begun to convince many NGOs
and Foundations that many fisheries are well
managed and sustainable
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World
War I
poster
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Oxford University Press
publication date March
2012
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References
Worm, B., Hilborn, and 19 others. 2009. Rebuilding Global Fisheries. Science. 325:578-585.
Branch, T. A., Jensen, O. P., Ricard, D., Ye, Y., and Hilborn, R. 2011. ContrastingGlobal Trends in Marine Fishery Status Obtained from Catches and from StockAssessments. Conservation Biology. DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01687.x.
Branch, T. A., Watson, R., Fulton, E. A., Jennings, S., McGilliard, C. R., Pablico, G. T.,and Ricard, D. 2010. The trophic fingerprint of marine fisheries. Nature. 468: 431-435.
Sethi, S. A., Branch, T. A., and Watson, R. 2010. Global fishery developmentpatterns are driven by profit but not trophic level. Proceedings of the NationalAcademy of Sciences of the United States of America. 107: 12163-12167.
Hutchings, J. A., Minto, C., Ricard, D., Baum, J. K., and Jensen, O. P. 2010. Trends inabundance of marine fishes. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 67: 1205-1210.
Hilborn, R., Stewart, I. J., Branch, T. A., and Jensen, O. P. In Press. Defining trade-offs among between conservation of species diversity abundances, profitability,and food security in the California Current bottom- trawl fishery. ConservationBiology.