the sustainable development scenario · 2019. 12. 13. · the sustainable development scenario and...

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

The Sustainable Development ScenarioLaura Cozzi, Yasmine Arsalane, Christophe McGlade, Tiffany Vass, Daniel Crow

Paris, 4th December 2019


Context

• The energy world is marked by a series of deep disparities, between:

- The promise of energy for all, while 850 million people remain without access to electricity

- Better awareness of the impacts of air quality on public health, as pollution in cities continues to rise

- The need for rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, while these emissions reach historic highs

• Cost reductions & digitalisation are boosting new technologies, but they still need a helping hand from policy

• More than ever, energy decision makers need to take a hard, evidence-based look at the choices ahead

• The World Energy Outlook does not forecast what will happen; it explores different possible futures:

- What if the world continues on its current path, with no additional changes?

- What if we reflect today’s policy intentions and targets? This is the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)

- What if we meet sustainable energy goals in full? This is the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS)


An integrated strategy for energy & sustainable development

• The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO2 emissions while also tackling air

pollution, achieving universal energy access

Sustainable

Development

Scenario

change

climateAddress

accessenergy

universalAchieve

Improve airquality


No single or simple solutions to reach sustainable energy goals

Energy-related CO2 emissions and reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario by source

A host of policies and technologies will be needed across every sector to keep climate targets within reach, and further technology innovation will be essential to aid the pursuit of a 1.5°C stabilisation

10

20

30

40

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gt CO2

Other renewables end-uses

Nuclear

Sustainable Development Scenario

Biofuels transport

Air conditioners

Cars & trucksHeavy industry

WindSolar PV

Hydro

Electric vehiclesFuel switch incl. hydrogen

Buildings

CCUS power

Current Trends

Efficiency

Renewables

Fuel switch, CCUSand other

Aviation and shipping

Power

CCUS industry

Other renewables power

Light industry

Stated Policies ScenarioIndustrial electric motors

Behavioural changeResource efficiency


How does the SDS compare to other climate scenarios?

The CO2 emissions trajectory to 2050 in the SDS is within the envelope of 1.5 °C scenarios used by the IPCC. Climate action beyond 2050 will determine the ultimate temperature outcome

Energy sector CO2 emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario and other “well below 2 °C” scenarios

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2015 2025 2035 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

Gt

CO

2

20452015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

Below 1.5 °C

1.5-1.8 °C

SDS

SDS to 1.65 °C

SDS to 1.5 °C


500

1 000

1 500

2 000

Peo

ple

(m

illio

n)

2000 2010 2018 2030

Accelerating action in power is key to achieve sustainable goals

Population without electricity access

Stated Policies scenario

Despite progress in several countries, access programs barely outpace sub-Saharan population growth;solar PV is essential to bridge the gap for universal access and deliver affordable electricity to millions

Other sub-SaharanAfrica

Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda & Senegal

India

Other AsiaNorth Africa & Middle EastLatin America

Solutions to provide full access by 2030

in Sub-Saharan Africa

Grid extension

and densification43%

Mini-grids

31%

Stand-alone

Systems26%


2 500

5 000

7 500

2010 2018 2030 2040 2050

GW

Towards a low-carbon power sector

Renewables provide three-quarters of the growth in electricity supply to 2040 under stated policiesmuch more is needed: a greater shift towards low-carbon generation and tackling the legacy issues

Global power capacity by source

Stated Policies Scenario

Historical Projections

2018 2030 2040 2050

Global power capacity by source


Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Solar PV

Wind

Hydro

Solar PV

Gas Hydro

Coal

Nuclear

Wind


A carbon neutral Europe puts offshore wind in front

Offshore wind is set to become the largest source of electricity in the European Union by 2040, complementing other renewables towards a fully decarbonised power system

Shares of electricity generation by technology in the European Union, Sustainable Development Scenario

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Onshore wind

Nuclear

BioenergySolar PVHydroNatural gas

Coal

Offshore wind


Investment in CCUS will be critical to ensure that the young coal fleet is compatible with climate targets, while repurposing them to provide flexibility can reduce CO2 and pollutant emissions, and help integrate renewables

Today’s coal plants leave a legacy that technology can address

Annual CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants

Existing and under construction

Sustainable DevelopmentScenario

2018 2040 20502030

Coal-fired capacity, existing and under construction:

2

4

6

8

10

12

Gig

ato

nn

es

Early retirements

CCUS retrofits orrepurposing

Subcritical

Advanced

Combinedheat andpower

Developingeconomiesin Asia

Otherdevelopingeconomies

Advancedeconomies

2 250 GW


Emissions from transport: easy wins and tough challenges

Efficiency improvements and EVs cut CO2 emissions from cars in both scenarios. Trucks, aviation and shipping are harder to abate and will require low carbon fuels and new technologies in the long term.

CO2 emissions from transport by mode and by scenario

2

4

6

8

10

2018 2050 STEPS 2050 SDS

GtC

O2

Aviation, Shippingand Other

Heavy Duty Vehicles

Light Duty Vehiclesand Motorcycles

+51%

+44%

-12%

-46%

-36%

-78%


Buildings sector: different challenges around the world

Tough regulations in advanced economies see deliver emissions reductions in STEPS; SDS only builds on this trend. For developing economies a sea change is required, supported by the rapid decarbonisation of power

CO2 emissions from buildings in advanced and developing economies by scenario

2018 2030 2040 2050 2018 2030 2040 2050

Developing economies

GtCO2

Indirect

Direct

Indirect

Direct

Indirect

Direct

2018

SDS

STEPS2

4

6

8

Advanced economies


Clean cooking for all: planned effort lags behind

Despite progress in several countries, acceleration is needed in Africa and AsiaLPG and improved cookstoves could significantly lower premature deaths due to household air pollution

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2000 2010

Population without access to clean cooking

by scenario

Stated Policies Sustainable Development

Sub-Saharan Africa

Other Asia

India

Other developing countries

LPG44%

Improved biomass cookstoves 43%

Biogas digesters 8%

Electric stoves5%

Population gaining access by 2030

Sustainable Development Scenario,

bill

ion

2020 20302018

Sub-Saharan AfricaOther Asia

India

Other developing countries


Industry requires multiple emissions reduction strategies

Energy efficiency makes up the largest portion of industry emissions reductions in the SDS, followed by fuel switching, carbon capture and storage and material efficiency.

Savings in energy-related CO2 emissions in industry by measure and scenario

2

4

6

8

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gt CO2

Stated Policies Scenario


Energy efficiency

Material efficiency

Fuel switching

CCUS


Liquids and gases remain the cornerstone of energy consumption

Electricity comprises and increasing share of energy consumption but liquids and gases remain central to energy use. Limiting the emissions from these is a key element of energy transitions.

Share of fuels in total final energy consumption in the Sustainable Development Scenario

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2010 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040

Electricity and heat

Liquids

Gases

Coal

Other


Energy-sector investment in the Sustainable Development Scenario

Investment in fuels and power is marked by a major reallocation of capital towards renewables and electricity networks; demand-side investment increases substantially

Average annual energy investment in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2014-2018 and 2019-2050

0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8

2014-18

2019-50

2014-18

2019-50

2014-18

2019-50

OilNatural gasCoalBiofuels

Fossil fuels (w/o CCUS)Fossil fuels (w/CCUS)NuclearRenewablesNetworksBattery storage

RenewablesEfficiencyOther

Power

Trillion dollars (2018)

End-use

Fuels


The Sustainable Development Scenario and 1.5 °C

Emissions trajectories for total CO2 emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario and to limit warming to 1.5 °C

If emissions turn net negative after 2070, the Sustainable Development Scenario could lead to a 50% chance of limiting the temperature rise to below 1.5 °C

-15

0

15

30

45

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

1.5 °C with no negative emissions


From SDS towards 1.5 °C

From SDS towards 1.65 °C

the sustainable development scenario · 2019. 12. 13. · the sustainable development scenario and...

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