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THE SYNERGY OF DESIGN AND FUTURES RESEARCH A Model for Design and Futures Studies Stefanie Ollenburg Design Develop Transform Conference | Brussels, June 15, 2017

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THE SYNERGY OF DESIGN AND FUTURES RESEARCH

A Model for Design and Futures Studies Stefanie Ollenburg

Design Develop Transform Conference | Brussels, June 15, 2017

Agenda

§  Future and Futures

§  The field of Futures Studies

§  Design process

§  Design as an approach in research

§  A model as the synergy of both fields

§  An example from the Munster School of Architecture

15.06.17

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Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Future §  As a phenomenon of time future will always lie ahead of today,

therefore it cannot be researched.

BUT

§  With soaring uncertainties the urge to look into the future, to understand the developments, and to solve given issues has risen.

§  Our environmental problems have made us aware of the responsibility our actions have on the transformation of life on earth (i.e. the concept of the anthropocene)

§  Future has become the glimpse of hope that lies ahead and can be formed today …

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Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Concept of Futures

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diagram based on »Futures Cone« Voros 2003: 13 & Dunne/ Raby 2013: 5

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Futures Studies

• Exploring the possibilities and probabilities using present facts and figures and therefore the intent is to be scientific

• Result: What may and could be –> the possible & probable futures

“Logic of production” – futures are produced by …

• Investigating the preferable, avoidable, and plausible using normative research methods by e.g. involving stakeholders

• Result: What is wished for and perceived reasonable –> desirable & plausible futures

“Logic of perception” – futures are created by …

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What may and could be – the possible & probable futures (de Haan: Logic of producing) What we want and reason – desirable & plausible futures (de Haan: Logic of reception)

based on a lecture from Prof. Dr. G. de Haan 2013, FU Berlin / Institut Futur

Approach possible, probable, plausible, un-/ desirable futures:

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Futures Studies

Futures Studies / Futures Research / Foresight the approach to “deal” with future and explore options for action

An interdisciplinary field in the humanities and social sciences with researchers and practitioners coming from various backgrounds

Research approach and process – normative and/or explorative finding out about various possible, plausible etc futures

• The normative approach often is participatory therefore multi-disciplinary

• The explorative process finds insights and optional paths in the attempt to support decision making

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Based on Grunwald 2016, Inayatullah 2012, Bell 1997

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Futures Studies A definition of Futures Studies (FS):

§  The academic (scientific) engagement with possible, preferable (or avoidable), plausible, and probable developments in the future, and the options of how they can be formed, taking in account the prerequisites of past and present.(German futurist R. Kreibich (1995) / “plausible” added by de Haan)

§  The objective of FS is to identify possible, probable, plausible, and desirable futures (usually inter- and/or multi-disciplinary) and to analyse them in detail and to evaluate them. (lecture by de Haan 2013)

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Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Results of futures research In the process the objective mostly is to generate

§  Knowledge for orientation

§  Knowledge for decision making

§  Knowledge for action

… less to design future

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Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Design / to Design §  A procedure of

§  planning, shaping, composing, constructing, creating …

§  synonym for creating artefacts like products, communication or services

§  Designers as the profession

§  Planning, shaping, constructing the interfaces of an artefact

§  Establishing the relationship between it and the user

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Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Procedure of designing

How designers acquire knowledge and create: §  Understanding the problem

and the stakeholders (i.e. Human-centred)

§  Ideation of options

§  Bringing it together

Distinction within design practices (Source: Krippendorff 2006)

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Distinction within design practices (Source: Krippendorff 2006)

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Design Process made popular Design Thinking – a creative multi-disciplinary mind-set

managers in businesses are opening up to creative thinking procedures

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Design and innovation: Design Thinking a creative multidisciplinary process opening up businesses to new viewpoints

Design Thinking Process (Source: Stanford d-School – https://engagetheirminds.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/design_thinking_process_in_the_chapters_dialogue_project.png)

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

A Design Process

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§  Analysis (the True) §  NOW

§  Projection (the Ideal)

§  IDEA

§  Synthesis (the Real)

§  TOMORROW

APS-Design Process Model Jonas (Source: Jonas 2004)

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

PROJEKTIONTHE IDEAL

What could beabductive

SYNTHESETHE REAL

What is tomorrow deductive

ANALYSETHE TRUE

What is todayinductive

researchobserving

analysisreflecting

synthesisplanning

realizationacting

COMMUNICATION »the driver«

researchobserving

analysisreflecting

synthesisplanning

realizationacting

researchobserving

analysisreflecting

synthesisplanning

realizationacting

Generic Design Process

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Macro process: (design process) §  Analysis

Inductive §  Projection

abductive §  Synthesis

deductive Micro process (a learning cycle) §  Observe §  Reflect §  Plan §  Act

Generic Design Process Model Jonas

(Source: Jonas/ Münch 2007: 26)

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

PROJEKTIONTHE IDEAL

What could beabductive

SYNTHESETHE REAL

What is tomorrow deductive

ANALYSETHE TRUE

What is todayinductive

researchobserving

analysisreflecting

synthesisplanning

realizationacting

COMMUNICATION »the driver«

researchobserving

analysisreflecting

synthesisplanning

realizationacting

researchobserving

analysisreflecting

synthesisplanning

realizationacting

Research through Design „Research through Design

is in the designerly way the act to research and draft. Designer / researcher are directly involved in creating connections and shape the object of research.

An example for its use: potentially all wicked problems in the sense of Rittel.“ (Jonas 2004 – own translation)

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Generic Design Process Model Jonas

(Source: Jonas/ Münch 2007: 26)

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Research through Design meets Futures Studies?

§  Futures Studies / Foresight: Visionary approach – intangible

§  Design / Research through Design: Implementing ideas – tangible

§  Their similarity: Wicked Problems (Rittel 1971) §  Complex problems that have not one solution but may generate

new problems

§  Problems that may change by the point of view

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Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

The model uses …and addresses §  ... futures studies / futures research as a mindset and a way to

find alternatives as well as visionary approaches to deal with present and future issues … getting often only intangible result.

§  ... design as a process creating artifacts, communication or services and therefore tangible results … often lacking visionary aspects

§  ... combining the Design and Futures Studies approaches i.e. the alternative viewpoints, a visionary mindset and ideas to create tangible results

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Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

APS/PAS – Synergy-Model

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PAST PRESENT FUTURE

Generic Design Process adding concept of futures APS: Intelligence and goal driven problem-solving as the driving and leading activities in the research process PAS: Projection as the driving and leading activity in the innovation / exploration / research process (Source: Jonas/Chow 2008)

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

TOOL-BOX adaptation from the (Jonas/Chow 2008)

COMMUNICATION AS »THE DRIVE«Needing a focused and efficient teamworkHow to establish the process and move it forward? How to enable positive team dynamics? How to build a motivated team? How to find balance between action/reflection? How to enable equal participation?

ANALYSIS Induction ( – Probable & possible developments / futures)

PROJECTION Abduction ( – desirable / undesirable develop-ments / futures

SYNTHESIS Deduction ( – plausible developments / implementation possibilities)

ResearchObserving

Get data on what is: How to get data on the matter at hand and the current situation?

Get data on future developments: How to get information on developmental paths that may be un-/ desirable?

Verify Data as issue: How to get data that can be used to verify plausible developments & possibilities for implementation

AnalysisReflecting

Break down Knowledge on what is: How is the data of the current situation being evaluated and can it be transferred into any developmental paths?

Evaluate insights of future related data: How is the data being evaluated and how to make sure to differenti-ate it from the possible and probable develop-mental paths?

Define issue & make a list of prerequisites: How can the develop-ments/images of the future be categorised into possible, probable, un-/desirable? Which evaluation scheme and implementation may occur?

SynthesisPlanning

Find global viewpoint: How can the current situ-ation be put into per-spective and which possible and probable developments can be concluded?

Create visions of the future: How can the insights of the future be combined in a credible way to cre-ate alternative un-/ desir-able images of the future?

Generate and design solutions: How can with the mate-rial at hand ideas and solution be designed and implemented?

RealisationActing

Consent on current situation: How is the data on the current situation, the viewpoint and develop-mental paths being presented?

Consent on the issues and the goal at hand: How to present the images of the future to create an understanding of the objective /issues that the visions of the future show?

Decide which solutions is feasible and realistic. Which steps are neces-sary for implementation? Which decisions need to be made?

Tool-Box as a guide for the Synergy-Model

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PAST PRESENT FUTURE

»as soon as the communication ends, the design process ends.« (Jonas et al. 2004: 7)

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Method-Wheel for the functionality of the Synergy-APS/PAS-Model

Approach

§  Unbiased and repeating (iterative Process)

§  Withstand uncertainty

§  Innovative and creative

Actors / Participants

§  Researchers – normative Foresight / Futures Studies

§  Researchers – Design Research

§  Designers / Design Thinker

§  Experts on the Topic

§  Interested Civilians / Stakeholders

Objective

§  Options for Action

§  Ideas for Implementation

§  Knowledge for Transformation

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Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

What can the model provide? §  A possibility to combine valid research with

implementation – from theoretical to practical

§  A structure supporting academic research in Futures Studies giving enough space to integrate participatory and creative methods

§  A thought model for planners and designers to look beyond their usual boundaries

§  Hypothesis: Projects with transformative character may result.

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Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Project

Münster in 2050 – How could a chosen district in Münster develop?

•  In an introductory class on Futures Studies for architecture students at the Munster School of architecture

•  OBJECTIVE was to explore and show an overview of the district in 2050 by developing a plausible scenario a district in Munster

•  Using the PAS-Synergy-Model as a structure

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15.06.17 Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

The Harbour district

2050in Munster, Germany

© Project by the architecture students Maria Meinert, Laura Offermann, Valentina Radile, and Lisa Schirk at the MSA – Münster School of Architecture Winter 2016 for an introductory course in Futures Studies

The Process – Projection

•  Starting with un-/desirable futures •  Observe: past to present and interview

current stakeholders in the district •  Reflect: the status quo •  Plan: Brainstorming, mind-mapping etc •  Act: Bring all together in a desirable and

an undesirable scenario as an utopian and a dystopian image of the future

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15.06.17 Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

MUNSTER Harbour| the past – shipping hub

15.06.17 24 Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

MUNSTER Harbour| today – trendy young pier

15.06.17 25 Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

MÜNSTER HAFEN | Heute MUNSTER Harbour| today – trendy young pier

15.06.17 26 Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

MUNSTER Harbour| currents plans and architectural contests

15.06.17 27 Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Postal delivery worker Beate

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Question was – how will the district look in 40 years: Everything will be electronic (she meant digitised) more and more email. Writing letters will be out. Am afraid soon there won’t be anymore postal service …

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Bar owner Thorsten

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Question was – how will the district look in 40 years: I can imagine that the whole harbour district will be developed and all of the students will live here and all night life will happen here.

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Passenger No. 1

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Question was – how will the district look in 40 years: It grows it grows it grows

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Passenger No. 1

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Question was – how will the district look in 40 years: Don’t know. Probably just built up with modern architecture. But the beautiful old buildings should be preserved- How it is typical for Munster.

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Construction worker Bernd

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Question was – how will the district look in 40 years: As you see, everything is expanding here. There’ll be more places where young people can spend their free time. And there will be more housing as you know that is missing. And it is all being built here.

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Utopia

• Sustainable developmentswith ecological life style isthe main paradigm

• Architecture supports acommunal life style with amix of divers inhabitants

• The district boomssupporting the arts andmany options for leisure time

33 Stefanie Ollenburg | [email protected]

Dystopia

• Growth and profit are themain paradigm

• Architecture supports theprestige life style

• The district has beencomplete gentrified

34 Stefanie Ollenburg | [email protected]

The Process – Analysis

Find the possibilities: • Observe: in the two scenarios what has

been left out that may be probable butnot necessarily desirable?

• Set-up a probable scenario by also usingyour research and the knowledge youacquired.

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15.06.17 Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

STEEP-Analysis HEUTE 2050

Ø  Has some affordable housingØ  Has become the artist districtØ  Offers places for music, film and

night life

Ø  Artist scene attracts avant-gardeØ  New housing is being builtØ  Leisure time offers bloom

Ø  The artist grow up and become avant-garde

Ø  Behind the scene expensive housingØ  Offers for leisure time expand

Ø  Mobility thru cars, public transportationØ  High density of bicyclistsØ  Smartphones are a must

Ø  Technological advances in mobilityØ  Ecological consciousness supports

expansion of bicycle friendlyinfrastructure

Ø  Advances towards the “Smart city”

Ø  Less cars towards sustainable mobilityØ  Bicycles a main part of transportationØ  Smartphone/ Smartwatch support daily

life – navigation, communication etc

Ø  Gastronomy on ground level /boardwalk

Ø  Office space on the upper levelsØ  Shopping is outside the district

Ø Gastronomy stays strongØ More office space is neededØ Small shops gain but closer shopping

options are needed

Ø  Gastronomy keeps the boardwalkØ  New office space is built (B-Side)Ø  Shopping centre on the boardwalk –

little shops lost their business

Ø  Hardly any self-sustaining buildingØ  Absence of alternative energy

resources

Ø  Technological advances in generationof energy

Ø  Renewable energy resources areexpanded

Ø  Mainly self-sustaining buildingØ  Mostly Renewable energy resources

are being used

Ø  Strong political interestsØ  Development is often pushed through

by political rulings

Ø  Politics pushing their visionØ  Politics aims towards a specific type of

architecture

Ø  Depending on government – gain orlose of diversity

Ø  Uniform city scape

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Soc

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15.06.17 36 Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Projections: Matrix with two dimensions

15.06.17 37 Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

15.06.17 38 Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

The Process – Synthsis

Brining it together • Look at all three scenarios and develop a

plausible one.• What of the “utopian ideas” maybe

interesting and doable after all?• Use all possibilities that could be realistic

in 2050?• Create a future that is distinctly different

from today• Include your research!

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15.06.17 Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

15.06.17 40 Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

Conclusion § The synergy-model

§ can give structure to a foresight process

§ have tangible result (projects, social innovations etc)

§ can encourage to use unknown methods

§ The synergy-model can give designers

§ a tool to extend their repertoire of research methods

§ to change their perspective right in the middle of working on thesolutions

§ Be more responsibility about the future

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Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]

The presentation was made possible partially with funding from the

Thank you

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Stefanie Ollenburg [email protected] [email protected] Twitter: Stef Ollenburg @SIOllenburg

15.06.17

Selected References Ø  Archer, Bruce (1995) »The Nature of Research«. In: Co-design. Interdisciplinary Journal of Design: 6 – 13

Ø  Bell, Wendell (1997) »Foundations of Futures Studies Vol. I, Values, Objectivity and the Good Society«. Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, New Jersey.

Ø  Dunne, Anthony; Raby, Fiona (2013) »Speculative Everything – Design Fiction and Social Dreaming«.The MIT Press

Ø  Findeli, Alain; Brouillet, Denis; Martin, Sophie; Moineau, Christophe; Tarrago, Richard (2008) »Research Through Design and Transdisciplinarity: A TentativeContribution to the Methodology of Design Research«. Beitrag für: Swiss Design Network Symposium 30/31.05.2008. Mount Gurten, Berne. Switzerland:67 – 94

Ø  Grunwald, Armin (2016) »Technikfolgenabschätzung: Orientierungswissen für die Zukunft«. In: Einblicke, Ausblicke, Weitblicke aktuelle Perspektiven in derZukunftsforschung. Popp, R., et al. (Hrsg.) Münster, Lit-Verlag: 256 – 273

Ø  Kreibich, Rolf (2009) »Die Zukunft der Zukunftsforschung, Ossip K. Flechtheim – 100 Jahre«. IZT-ArbeitsBericht Nr. 32/2009

Ø Krippendorff, Klaus (2006) »The Semantic Turn«. Taylor & Francis, Group LLC, Boca Raton, Florida

Ø Inayatullah, Sohail (2012) »Futures Studies: Theories and Methods«. In: There’s a Future Visions for A better World. BBVA (Hrsg.): 37 – 66

Ø  Johansson-Sköldberg, Ulla, Jill Woodilla, and Mehves Çetinkaya (2013) »Design Thinking: Past, Present and Possible Futures«. Creativity and InnovationManagement. 22: 121 – 146.

Ø  Jonas, Wolfgang (2007) »Research through DESIGN through research; A cybernetic model of designing design foundations«. In Kybernetes 36(9/10):1362–1380: Abgerufen am 1.12.2015: http://8149.website.snafu.de/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/2007_Kybernetes.pdf

Ø  Jonas, Wolfgang; Chow, Rosan (2008) »Beyond Dualisms in Methodology – an integrative design research medium (›MAPS‹) and some reflections«.Beitrag für: DRS conference Undisciplined!, Sheffield. 07/2008. Abgerufen am 10.04.2016: http://8149.website.snafu.de/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/2008_Beyond-dualisms.pdf

Ø Jonas, Wolfgang; Zerwas, Sarah; Anhelm, Kristof von (2015) »Transformation Design. Perspectives on a New Design Attitude«. Birkhäuser Verlag

Ø Voros, Joseph (2003) »A generic foresight process framework«. In: Foresight 5/3. Emerald Publishing Ltd.: 10–21

Ø Simonsen, Jesper; Bærenholdt, Jørgen Ole; Büscher, Monika, Scheuer, John Damm (2010) »Design research, synergies from interdisciplinaryperspectives«. New York, Routledge.

Ø VanPatter, GK (2009) »Design 1,2,3,4, Understanding futures that already have arrived«. NextDesign Leadership Institute. Abgerufen am 6.04.2016:https://issuu.com/humantific/docs/nextdfutures09 (zuletzt abgerufen 6.4.2016)https://issuu.com/nextd/docs/understandingdesign1_2_3_4

Stefanie Ollenburg | Futurist | Researcher | Designer | [email protected]