the technological singularity and entrepreneurship

71
Technological Singularity & Entrepreneurship Or: why we will either live forever, or be killed by robots… Randy Lubin, Robert Denning, Nick Staubach

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This talk was given at Stanford Graduate School of Business by Randy Lubin, Robert Denning, and Nick Staubach. It is a basic introduction to the Technological Singularity and its relationship with entrepreneurship.

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Page 1: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

Technological Singularity & EntrepreneurshipOr: why we will either live forever, or be killed by

robots…

Randy Lubin, Robert Denning, Nick Staubach

Page 2: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

OVERVIEW / HISTORY / PHILOSOPHYRobert Denning

2

Page 3: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

What is the singularity?

A singularity is a paradigm-shifting event… The “technological singularity” is a

hypothetical event occurring when technological progress becomes so rapid and the growth of super-human intelligence is so great that the future after the singularity becomes qualitatively different and harder to predict.

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Page 4: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

Kurzweil’s Singularity

The coming technological singularity will allow us to augment our bodies and minds with technology.

The singularity will result from the combination of three important technologies of the 21st century: genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (including artificial intelligence).

Four central postulates: A technological-evolutionary point known as "the singularity" exists

as an achievable goal for humanity. Through a law of accelerating returns, technology is progressing

toward the singularity at an exponential rate. The functionality of the human brain is quantifiable in terms of

technology that we can build in the near future. Medical advancements make it possible for a significant number of

his generation (Baby Boomers) to live long enough for the exponential growth of technology to intersect and surpass the processing of the human brain.

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Page 5: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

The Six Epochs

5

Evolution works through indirection: it creates a capability and then uses that capability to evolve the next stage.

Page 6: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

The Singularitarians

Transhumanists, Immortalists, Extropians

Techno-Utopians, Techno-Progressivists

Blurring of human/machine

Humans transcend limitations of their own biology

Long-term immortality: Downloaded

consciousness Upgraded human body

“We have to live until the singularity”

Museum of Death

A just slightly more intelligent machine is all we need

From there, machines and AI will perfect themselves

Long-term problem-solving, an end to scarcity

“There is a cosmic imperative to create more complexity”

Museum of Poverty, Disease, Waste

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Page 7: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

Why is this good again?!

Pop culture prefers the apocalyptic scenario… Skynet (Terminator) The Matrix I, Robot Frankenstein; cyborgs; “the Borg”

But, as you’ll see, we are heading this way by forces beyond our control…

Profit motives Desire for longevity

And we are admittedly not preparing ourselves.

But we can.

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Page 8: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

THE SINGULARITY COULD END UP BEING THE BEST THING THAT EVER HAPPENED TO THE HUMAN RACE. FULL STOP.

8

The Goliath of totalitarianism will be brought down by the David of the microchip.

– Ronald Reagan, The Guardian, 14 June 1989

Page 9: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

The Law of Accelerating ReturnsAn analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view.

9

So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century – it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate).

Page 10: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

Life Eucaryotic cells, mul-ticellular organisms

Cambrian Explosion (body plans)

Reptiles Class MammaliaPrimates

Superfamily HominoideaFamily Hominidae

Human ancestors walk upright

Genus Homo, Homo Erectus, specialized

stone toolsSpoken languageHomo sapiens

Homo sapiens sapiens

Art, early citiesAgriculture

Writing, wheelCity states

Printing, experimen-tal method

Industrial Revolution

Telephone, Electricity, radio

ComputerPersonal Computer

Countdown to Singularity

Time before present (years)

Tim

e t

o N

ext

Eve

nt

(ye

ars

)

Logarithmic Plot

10

Page 11: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

LifeEucaryotic cells, multicellular

organisms

Cambrian Explosion (body plans)Reptiles

Class Mammalia

PrimatesSuperfamily Hominoidea

Family Hominidae

Human ancestors walk uprightGenus Homo, Homo Erectus,

specialized stone toolsSpoken language

Homo sapiensHomo sapiens sapiens

Art, early cities

AgricultureWriting, wheel

City states

Printing, experimental method

Industrial RevolutionTelephone, electricity, radio

ComputerPersonal Computer

Countdown to Singularity

Time before present (years)

Tim

e t

o N

ext

Eve

nt

(ye

ars

)

Linear Plot

11

Page 12: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

THE PARADIGM SHIFT RATE

IS NOW DOUBLING ABOUT

EVERY DECADE

12

1

10

100

Telephone Radio Television

PC

MobilePhone

Mass Use of Inventions Years Until Use by 1/4 U.S. Population

Ye

ars

Doubling time: x years

Doubling time: x years

The Web

Logarithmic Plot

Page 13: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES (OF ALL KINDS)

DOUBLE THEIR POWER ABOUT (PRICE PERFORMANCE, CAPACITY, BANDWIDTH)

EVERY YEAR

13

Page 14: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

Moore’s Law is only one example

Exponential Growth of Computing for 110 Years

Moore's Law was the fifth, not the first, paradigm to bring exponential growth in computing

Calc

ula

tions

per

Seco

nd p

er

$1

00

0

Year

Logarithmic Plot

14

Page 15: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

1E+09

1E+16

VP2600/10SX-3/44

CM-5/1024Num. Wind Tun.

Num. Wind Tun.SR2201/1024

CP-PACS/2048ASCI Red

ASCI RedASCI WhiteASCI White

Earth SimulatorSX-8

Blue Gene /L

Blue Gene /L

Blue Gene /LBlue Gene /L

Roadrunner

Pleiades,Blue Waters, or RIKEN (announced)

First Exaflop Super-computer (forecast)

Year

Flo

ps

(Fl

oa

tin

g-p

oin

t O

pe

rati

on

s p

er

Se

con

d)

Growth in Supercomputer Power

40048008

8080 8086286

386486

PentiumPentium II

Pentium IIIPentium 4 (1700)

Pentium 4 (3066)Pentium D 830

Core 2 Extreme QX6700

C2E QX9770

Processor Performance (MIPS)

Year

`

Doubling time: x years

MIPS

Dynamic RAM Memory Bits per Dollar

Year

DRAM Bits/Dollar

Source: ITRS`

Doubling time: x years

Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot

Logarithmic Plot

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

400480088080

8086

286386

486 DXPentium

Pentium IIPentium III

Pentium 4

Itanium 2 Itanium 2 (2003)

Itanium 2 (2004)Xeon MPDual-Core Itanium 2

Itanium 'Tukwila'

Transistors Per Chip (Intel processors)

YearTran

sist

ors

per

ch

ip

Logarithmic Plot

15

Page 16: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

Random Access Memory Bits per Dollar (1950-2008)

Year

Bit

s per

Dolla

r(i

n y

ear

2000 d

olla

rs)

`

Doubling time: x years

Logarithmic Plot

16

Page 17: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

Cost Per Transistor Cycle

Year $

/Tra

nsis

tor/

Hz

Doubling time: x years

Doubling time: x years

Doubling time: x years

Doubling time: x years

1.00E-08

1.00E-07

1.00E-06

1.00E-05

1.00E-04

1.00E-03

1.00E-02

1.00E-01

1.00E+00

Average Transistor Price

Year

Dol

lars

Logarithmic Plot

Microprocessor Clock Speed

Year

(H

z)

`

Doubling time: x years

`

Doubling time: x years

`

Doubling time: x years

Logarithmic Plot

Logarithmic Plot

17

Page 18: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

Total Bits Shipped

Year

Total Bits Shipped

Source: ITRS

`

`

Doubling time: x years

`

Doubling time: x years

Logarithmic Plot

18

Page 19: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

Magnetic Data Storage Bits Per Dollar

Year

Bit

s/$

Logarithmic Plot

19

Page 20: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

EVERY FORM OF COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY (PRICE - PERFORMANCE, BANDWIDTH, CAPACITY)

IS DOUBLING ABOUT EVERY 12 MONTHS

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Page 21: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20080

0

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

Internet Data Traffic (U.S.)

Year

Peta

byte

s/Ye

ar

.1

.01

Logarithmic Plot

21

Page 22: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20041

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

Price-performance of wireless data devices

YearB

its p

er

seco

nd/$

19651970

19751980

19851990

19952000

20052010

1E+04

1E+06

1E+08

1E+10

Internet Backbone Bandwidth (Bits per Second)

Year

Bit

s p

er

Se

co

nd

Logarithmic Plot

Logarithmic Plot

22

Page 23: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

Internet Hosts(computers or machines with IP

addresses)

Year

H

osts

Internet Hosts(computers or machines with IP

addresses)

YearH

ost

s

`

Linear Plot

Logarithmic Plot

23

Page 24: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

10

100

1,000

U.S. Nano-Related Patents

Year

`

Doubling time: x years

Pat

ents

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002100

1,000

10,000

100,000

Nanotech Science Citations - 1990-2002

Year

Cit

ati

ons

Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot

Nanotechnology

24

Page 25: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0.1

1

10

Resolution of Noninvasive Brain Scanning

Year

Resolu

tion (

mm

)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

Brain scanning/imaging Reconstruction time (seconds)

Year

Seco

nds

Logarithmic Plot

Logarithmic Plot

Artificial Intelligence (via humans)

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Page 26: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

0.00000

0.00001

0.00010

0.00100

0.01000

0.10000

1.00000

10.00000

100.00000

1,000.00000

10,000.00000

DNA Seqencing Cost

Year

Cost

in D

ollars

19801985

19901995

20002005

2010

1E+02

1E+04

1E+06

1E+08

1E+10

Growth in Genbank DNA Sequence Data

Base Pairs

Year

Ba

se P

airs a

nd

Se

qu

en

ces

Logarithmic Plot

Logarithmic Plot

Biotechnology

26

Page 27: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

Law of Accelerating Returns is Driving Economic Growth

The portion of a product or service’s value comprised of information is asymptoting to 100%

The cost of information at every level incurs deflation at ~ 50% per year

This is a powerful deflationary force Completely different from the deflation in the 1929

Depression (collapse of consumer confidence & money supply)

This is why entrepreneurialism is so important

27

Page 28: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

GDP per capita (1990 international constant dol-

lars)

Years

GD

P p

er

capit

a

(1990 inte

rnati

onal co

nst

ant

dol

-la

rs)

1,000

10,000

100,000

GDP per capita (1990 international constant dol-

lars)

Years

GD

P p

er

capit

a (

1990 inte

rnati

onal co

nst

ant

dol

-la

rs)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Real Gross Domestic Product(2005 constant dollars)

Year

Billions of 2005 constant dollars

Source: BEA

Doubling tme: x years

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

Real Gross Domestic Product(2005 constant dollars)

Year

Billions of 2005 constant dollars

Source: BEA

Dou-bling time: 19.2 years

Linear PlotLogarithmic Plot

Logarithmic PlotLinear Plot

28

Page 29: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

10

100

1,000

Manufacturing Output Per Hour

Year

Ou

tpu

t p

er

Hou

r

Logarithmic Plot

29

Page 30: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

E-Commerce Revenues in U.S. (billions of dollars)

B2C (Business to Consumer)

B2B (Business to Business)

Year

Billions of dollars

Source: ITRS

`

Logarithmic Plot

30

Page 31: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000

2

4

6

8

10

IT's Share of the Economy

Year

% o

f G

DP

`

Doubling time: x years

Logarithmic Plot

31

Page 32: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

U.S. Patent Applications

Year

Pate

nt

Ap

plica

tion

s

Logarithmic Plot

32

Page 33: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

World Annual Photovoltaic Pro-duction

Year

Meg

awat

ts

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101

10

100

1,000

10,000

World Annual Photovoltaic Production

Year

Meg

awat

ts

Logarithmic PlotLinear Plot

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

World Cumulative Photovoltaic Production

Year

Megaw

att

s

Logarithmic PlotLinear Plot

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

5,000

10,000

15,000

World Cumulative Photovoltaic Production

Year

Me

ga

wa

tts

33

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1995 2000 2005 20100

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Annual Photovoltaic Production, Select Countries and Europe 1995-

2008

United StatesJapanEuropeChinaTaiwanIndiaOthers

Year

Megaw

att

s

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Annual Photovoltaic Installations, Select Countries and Regions, 2000-

2008

Germany Japan United States Others

Year

Meg

awat

ts

Linear PlotLinear Plot

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010$0

$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90

$100

World Average Photovoltaic Module Cost per Watt, 1975-2006

Cost per Watt (2007 US Dollars)

Year

Cos

t per

Wat

t (20

07 D

olla

rs)

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

200

400

Watts per $1000 (2007 U.S. Dolllars), 1975-2006

Watts per $1000 (of 2007 US dollars)

Year

Wat

ts

Linear Plot Linear Plot

34

Page 35: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

An example of Exponential Growth…

5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes

35

Page 36: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

An example of Exponential Growth…

5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes

From the start of time ~2003

36

Page 37: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

An example of Exponential Growth…

5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes

From the start of time ~2003

in 2010 ~ 2 Days

37

Page 38: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

An example of Exponential Growth…

5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes

From the start of time ~2003

in 2010 ~ 2 Days

in 2013

38

Page 39: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

An example of Exponential Growth…

5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes

From the start of time ~2003

in 2010 ~ 2 Days

in 2013 ~ 10 minutes

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Page 40: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

It’s going to happen…

SO… We need to prepare; We need to consider the ethical implications and develop a

new moral framework; We need to consider the social and political frameworks

necessary to deal with the transition.

BUT… You don’t need to accept everything that might be possible… …But you do need to recognize that this paradigm shift is

potentially imminent and clearly inevitable (and that, at the very least, the gap between now and when it happens is closing at an exponentially faster rate)…

And that the event horizon will be unpredictable, and seismic.

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GENETICS / NANOTECHNOLOGYRandy Lubin

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Your mobile phone has more computing power than all of NASA in 1969. NASA launched a man into the moon. We launch a bird into pigs.–George Bray

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GENETICS / NANOTECHNOLOGYRandy Lubin

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Page 64: The Technological Singularity and Entrepreneurship

Robots and AINick Staubach

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Key Thoughts

This is an awesome time to be alive Don’t think linearly (Future’s Coming Fast) You will be driving this change

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More Resources

The Singularity is Near (Kurzweil) KurzweilAI.net SingularityHub.com

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