The Transition MovementFrom Oil Dependency to Local Resilience

Event, locationDate

NameTransition Network

Agenda Peak Oil and its effects Climate Change Economic contraction PO + CC + EC ≠ “business as usual” Responses at different levels

global, national, local, personal What is a transition town Examples and achievements so far Q&A discussion-------------------- RESILIENCE

Peak Oil

we’ll never “run out” of oil

we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil

oil underpins– industrial development

– agriculture

– economics

– population

about ½ way through it…

it’s going to decline

Peak Oil – a theory?

98 oil producers

Peak Oil – a theory?

Not a theory for these 64 post peak producers

Peak Oil – discovery

US discovery peaked in 1930s production peaked in 1971

UK discovery peaked in 1975 production peaked in 1999

world discovery peaked in 1960s production will peak in 20??

Peak Oil – net energy on the downslope

Peak gas for UK

Source – National Grid

UK energy balance 1965 - 2010

Peak Oil vs Peak Exports

Oil producers getting richer

Developing their own economies Middle East growth: 5-6% pa

Russia growth: 7% pa

Increasing their domestic

consumption of oil fuelled by subsidised prices

Less available for countries

they export to. Like us …

Peak Oil – what’s it like?

terminal decline

demand destruction

examples: 1990s: North Korea

1990s: Cuba

2000: UK fuel crisis

Now: Poor countries

Climate Change – the end of the debate

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal

Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations

The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:

Upsala Glacier, Argentina

Climate Change – the feedbacks kicking in?

Why the Arctic Matters

Polar Science Center Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington

Peak Oil & Climate Change

What can be done? Global

Oil Depletion Protocol Contraction and Convergence Kyoto

National TEQs, Cap & Share (energy rationing)

Community Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural

Personal “The work that reconnects” self directed re-education

Peak oil, climate change, food and the Scottish parliament Unanimously passed motion

“…Parliament expresses its concern at the potential for global food shortages; … food price inflation now exceeding 6%; calls on the Scottish Government, Her Majesty’s Government, the European Union and other relevant bodies to … seek solutions that take account of the growing pressures on agriculture from both climate change and the rush to biofuels as well as the peak in oil production … ensuring the long-term capacity and capability of our food supply; … encourage the development of local supply chains through public procurement, address the imbalance in power between the big supermarkets and our food producers....” (June 2008)

Transition and Somerset CC (UK) acknowledges [...] that the independence of the Transition

Movement is key to its grass roots appeal.

fully endorses the Transition Town Movement and subscribes to the principles and ethos of the organisation's goals to reduce dependence on fuel oil and create more sustainable communities.

commits to providing support and assistance to all towns in Somerset that wish to join this initiative [...].

[...] allocating funds to assist in achieving the outcomes of the Transition Towns [...] requiring all directorates to support Transition Initiatives

seeks to become the first Transition Authority in the UK.

agrees to undertake a review of its budgets and services to reduce dependence on fuel oil and produce an energy descent action plan in line with the principles of the Transition Initiative.

(Motion unanimously pass by Somerset County Council in July 2008)

Monteveglio council, Italy Oil and fossil fuel depletion is this administration’s priority, to be

implemented through an Energy Descent Plan to turn Monteveglio into a “Post Carbon” City.

Strategic partnership with the Association Monteveglio Città di Transizione [Transition Town Monteveglio] with whom this administration shares:

a view of the future (the depletion of energy resources and the significance of a limit to economic development)

methods (bottom-up community participation)

objectives (to make our community more resilient, i.e. better prepared to face a low energy future)

an optimistic approach (although the times are hard, changes to come will include great opportunities to improve the whole community’s quality of life).

Begin a participative and institutional process to promote Monteveglio as a Transition Town, with the direct participation of the whole community and a final statement by the City Council.

Define CO2 emission measurement tools and containment policies well beyond EU targets and in line with the global objective of 350 ppm.

excerpt from Monteveglio “Decree”

Can we respond?

Going up the energy slope, we used– ingenuity– creativity– adaptability– cooperation

Going back down…– if we’re early enough– if we’re cooperative– the future could be a

whole lot better…

What’s stopping us? (1) Dominant myths of today

Things are getting better Tomorrow will be like today, but bigger and shinier Economic growth is good We must keep shopping Technology will solve all our problems There is no alternative You can’t stop progress Living standards are rising Humans are selfish and greedy by nature The market will solve it We’re all doomed…

What are our stories for the future?

Indu

stri

al A

scen

t

• Energy use• Resource use• Environmental degradation• Pollution

Peak Energy

?

Techno-Fantasy

Green-Tech

StabilityGreen-Tech

Stability

Earth

stewardshipPost Mad Max Collapse

Great Grand Children

Agriculture10.000yrs BP

Industrial Revolution

Baby Boom

Pre-industrial culture

Historical Time

Future Time

Creative D

escent

(Perm

aculture)

Changing the myth from…

Changing the myth from…

What’s stopping us? (2)

Cognitive Overload Theory (fruit salad experiment) Short term vs long term thinking

– rational vs emotional– neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilian

Belief in authority figures– electrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal dose– obedient children survive

Sunk cost, or investment in the present– “it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job

depends on him not believing it” Optimism

– an optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfilling

Who’s designing a creative, positive energy descent? (Americas)

Who’s designing a creative, positive energy descent? (Aus/NZ)

Who’s designing a creative, positive energy descent? (Europe and beyond)

Who’s designing creative, positive energy descent? (UK and Ireland)

How are they organising?

Transition Model Understands:

PO + CC + £â ≠ “Business as usual” Adaptable, creative Start now

7 Buts “ingredients”

Transition Model – 7 “buts” (1)

I’d get involved, but...

1) we don’t have funding

2) “they” won’t let us

3) turf wars with other green groups

Transition Model – 7 “buts” (2)

I’d get involved, but...

4) no one cares about the environment

5) it’s too late anyway

6) I don’t have the right qualifications

7) I don’t have the energy for it

The Transition Response

Transition Model - Step 1

Set up an initiating group and design its transformation from the outset

atrophy personal agendas humility stages 2-5 reforms from subgroups

Transition Model - Step 2

Awareness raising allies and networks prepare community movies talks events

Transition Model - Step 3

Lay the foundations other groups existing projects official bodies businesses collaboration

Transition Model - Step 4

Organise a Great Unleashing coming of age powerful, passionate, informative,

inspirational timing content making connections

Transition Model - Step 5

Form “working groups” starting new groups bringing in existing groups guidelines training working groups and the

steering group

Transition Model - Step 6

Use “Open Space” shouldn’t work! one long coffee break World Café

Harrison Owen - Open Space Technology: A User’s Guide

Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’ - The Change Handbook: Group Methods for Shaping the Future

Transition Model - Step 7

Develop visible practical manifestations of your project

not a talking shop chose carefully lure in fence-sitters team building potential getting dirt under your fingernails

Transition Model - Step 8

Facilitate the Great Reskilling repairing, cooking, fixing bikes, natural building, loft

insulation, dyeing, herbal walks, gardening, basic home energy efficiency, making sour doughs, practical food growing (the list is endless…)

eg WWOOFing

Transition Model - Step 9

Build bridges to Local Government

becomes crucial don’t wait too long… open door Community Development Plan elections…!

Transition Model - Step 10

Honour the Elders elders as a community resource 1930 to 1960 – moving from oil

scarcity to abundance oral history community infrastructure not about going backwards

Transition Model - Step 11

Let it go where it wants to go… focus on the questions unleash the community any sense of control is

illusory

Transition Model - Step 12

Produce and start to implement the Energy Descent Action Plan

assess current situation create 15-20 year vision for all

key areas integrate with community plan if

possible identify steps needed to get there start the work

What kind of things are they up to…?

loads of awareness raising talks,

movies, discussions

skillsharing

seed sharing

local food directories

local currencies

oral history archives

planting fruit trees

starting up locally owned renewable

energy companies

garden share schemes

energy saving advice for the community

central buying of trees for “city

orchards”

mending courses loads of reskilling events, eg

Dr Bike, composting toilets, reedbeds

working with local schools cutting out plastic bags and

holding workshops on how to make fabric ones out of scraps

getting sustainability books into their libraries

car share schemes community supported

agriculture schemes guerilla gardening permaculture courses

Typical activities

What are they up to…? (UK)

Taken from the May/June 2010 Roundup - a trawl of websites and googlealerts from around the world

Portobello, Scotland - short courses in vegetable growing and raised bed construction

TT Brixton - Master Gardener training course TT Sevenoaks - including a seedling swap, advice on raising

chickens and bees and a food hub New Forest Transition – a new Local Food Market Unleashings in Hebden Bridge, TT Malvern TT Totnes published the EDAP TT Finsbury in London – video workshops TT Halesworth – upcycling (mending) project Portobello – home water checks TT Berkhamstead’s – car free day TT Horncastle – Nappucino event (skillshare re alternatives to “disposable”

nappies)

What are they up to…? (Europe and US)

Taken from the May/June 2010 Roundup - a trawl of websites and googlealerts from around the world

New TT initiative started up in Witzenhausen, Germany Transition Hub starting in Brussels, Belgium New TT initiative started in Heidelberg west, Germany Unleashings in TT Carrboro-Chapel Hill and TT Whatcom in US T San Francisco mulling over a local currency – “bernalbucks” T Kurilpa and the Brisbane Transition Hub had David Holmgren

(permaculture co-founder) at big awareness raising event US TV show called ‘Sustainable Today’ featured David Johnson

and Jim Newcomer speaking about the transition in Portland, Oregon

Transition Tasmania – ‘produce swap’ and no-knead bread skill share TT Blackwood in Oz – seed share event TT Invercargill, New Zealand were given a community garden

Our choice…

We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.