the uk's global gas challenge€¦ ·
TRANSCRIPT
The UK’s Global Gas Challenge:
An Introduction
Professor Mike Bradshaw
Department of Geography
Why a Global Gas Challenge? • There is great uncertainty about the future role of natural
gas in the global (EU, UK) energy mix.
• At the same time, what is certain is that the UK will be increasingly import dependent when it comes to satisfying domestic gas demand.
• That said, there is also uncertainty about the future role of natural gas in the UK’s energy mix: is it part of the problem or part of the answer?
• Nonetheless, as the UK will be importing more natural gas in the future, policy makers need to understand the factors that will influence future global gas security.
Uncertainty over gas demand!
Source: European Energy Review
Annual UK Gas Demand Forecast Range
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
bcm
Outer Range Central Range Slow Progression 2011 Gone Green 2011
Source: National Grid
The UK Gas Balance
• UKCS • NCS • Interconnectors • LNG • Storage
GAS
107
Map 4.2: The National Gas Transmission System 2010
Source: International Energy Agency and DECC
Clair
UK trade in natural gas – 1980-2010
-200.0
-100.0
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
TWh
Exports Pipeline Imports LNG Imports Net Imports
Source: DECC
Na#onal Grid ‘Gone Green’ Gas Supply to 2030
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
00/0
1
02/0
3
04/0
5
06/0
7
08/0
9
10/1
1
12/1
3
14/1
5
16/1
7
18/1
9
20/2
1
22/2
3
24/2
5
26/2
7
28/2
9
30/3
1
% Im
port Requirem
ent bcm
/ ye
ar
UKCS traditional Unconventionals Norway
LNG Continent Annual Demand inc Exports
Import Dependency
Actual Forecast
A Re-orientation of domestic gas flows
Gas Transportation Ten Year Statement 2011
Page 41
These figures are material evidence of how users are changing the way that they use the network; the charts above demonstrate the greater operational challenge associated with a combination of increasing uncertainty where supplies will arrive, a much higher degree of supply profiling within day and reduced accuracy of aggregate user notifications .
4.2.1 How the general flow patterns have changed in the NTS
A positive consequence of this supply transition has meant that sources are much more distributed around the UK. This has brought supplies (that have the ability to significantly increase flows) closer to the demand centres, thus aiding security of supply, and enabling opportunities to better optimise compressor fuel management. However this brings associated operational challenges due to an increased risk of credible supply loss and the variability of supply patterns from day to day. This has fundamentally changed the flow patterns of gas in the NTS, which is clearly illustrated in Figure 4.2D. The dominant flow pattern in 2000 was characterised by high UKCS supplies at St Fergus with the challenge of moving large quantities of gas from Scotland to the areas of high demand in the South. By 2010 this pattern had changed substantially with much lower supplies at St Fergus and much larger supplies further south with the commissioning of LNG import terminals at the Isle of Grain and Milford Haven together with Norwegian gas imports at Easington. This results in differing flow patterns to the network design. This change in flow pattern brings about challenges in real time operational planning of the NTS. It now has to embrace a much wider set of credible conditions for both steady state and unplanned significant dynamic changes. As a further consequence the use of physical assets on the network has evolved from their original design parameters resulting in higher maintenance and corresponding system access requirements. Figure 4.2D - Flow patterns in the NTS Source National Grid
2000 2010
The decline in St Fergus supplies has been widely publicised. This decline creates issues relating to the lack of ability to move gas north towards Scotland to meet demand. To meet this challenge a proposal of work has been suggested through the RIIO Stakeholder Network Source: Na+onal Grid 2011
Multiple Transitions
• A globalizing gas industry that is in transition—shale gas, pricing/contracting and market integration.
• A UK energy system is transition from a high level of fossil fuel self-sufficiency to rapidly increasing import dependence.
• A UK energy system that is in transition to a low-carbon future—80% reduction in GHG emission by 2050, 50% by 2030.
Today’s Event
Sponsored by the Energy Security in a Multipolar World Research Cluster (EPRSC/ESRC)
Organized by the Global Gas Security Research Project (UKERC)
Aim: to explore some of the key global issues likely to affect UK gas security.
The Geopolitical Economy of Global Gas Security and Governance: Implications for the UK
Aims: 1) To develop a conceptual framework and methodology to analyse global gas security and governance. 2) To iden+fy the geopoli+cal drivers, actors, issues and risks shaping global gas security to the late 2020s (end of 4th Carbon Budget). 3) To assess their consequences for the UK’s energy strategy and low carbon transi+on.
The Geopolitical Economy of Global Gas Security and Governance: Implications for the UK
Objec#ves Phase 1 1) The development of a geopoli+cal economy approach to global
gas security. Phase 2 (Case Studies) 2) Analysis of the geopoli+cs of Eurasian gas exports. 3) Analysis of the geopoli+cal consequences of the unconven+onal
gas revolu+on. 4) Analysis of the globaliza+on of the LNG supply chain. Phase 3 5) Assessment of implica+ons for the UK.
Today’s Programme 10:30 -11:00
The UK’s Global Gas Challenge: An Introduction Prof Mike Bradshaw, University of Leicester
11:00-11:40 International Gas Markets and GB Gas Security Policy Dr Pierre Noël, EPRG, University of Cambridge
11:40-12:20 Gas Pricing in Transition: Different Issues in Different Regions Prof Jonathan Stern, OIES
12:20-1:00 The New Energy Orient John Mitchell, Chatham House
1:00-2:00 LUNCH BREAK
2:00-2:40 Challenges to Sustaining the Shale Gas Revolution Joseph Dutton, University of Leicester
2:40-3:20 The Global LNG Business in Transition David Ledesma, South-Court Ltd. And OIES
3:20-3:40 TEA BREAK
3:40-4:30 Panel Discussion
